OIL INDUSTRY IN SLOVENIA

Transcription

1 OIL INDUSTRY IN SLOVENIA Country Profile 1 Contents: Basic Information Energy market Environment policy Directives and Legislation Upstream Conclusions 2

2 Basic Information 3 Basic Information Area in km2: Population (year 2001): 1, Density of population per km (2001): 98 GDP at current prices (2002): mio EUR GDP per capita in 2002 and % on , increase 6,8% GDP grow rate (at costant prices 2000) 3,2% (in year 2002) Employed population in 2002: employees Unemployment (registered) rate 12/2002: 11,3% Export in 2001: mio EUR Import in 2001: mio EUR Inflation rate 2002: 7,5% 4

3 Basic Information Short - term macroeconomic policy: Gradual reduction of inflation to the level set by Mastricht criteria below 5%: Restrictive income policy (socialpartners agreement on wages for 2003 and 2004) Creating competition in non-tradable sectors Adjust the rate ofdepreciation ofthe domestic currency to the levelof interest and/or vice versa 2. Gradual elimination of fiscal deficit 3.Structural reforms and developmentpolicy increase economic competitiveness 5 Basic Information The main macroeconomicpresumtions for State Budget in 2003 and 2004 GDP grow rate % Inflation rate % Wages grow rate per employee in % Work productivityrate % Unemployment rate % Depreciation of domestic currency with EUR % Oil price per barrel in USD ,7* 5,1* 2,0 3,0 6,2 2, ,1 4,6 2,5 3,2 5,9 1,3 25 6

4 Energy Market Consumption of primary energy in ,2% liquid fuels 23,5% solid fuels 17,4% nuclear fuels 14,0% gas fuels 4,8% hydro energy 7 Energy market Consumption of final energy in 2000: 28,5% Industry 30,8% Transport 40,7% Other sectors 8

5 Energy Market Structure of oil product consumption in 2001: 35,5% motor gasoline 22,8% diesel oil 33,1% lightfuel oil 5,1% fuel oil 3,5% UNP 9 Energy Market Structure of the selling price for motor gasoline NMB 95 in SIT/l ( ), Source: Oil Bulletin Price [SIT/l] Germany Italy Austria EU Slovenia average Country VAT Excise tax Price before tax 10

6 Energy market Structure of the selling price for diesel oil in SIT/l ( ) Source: Oil Bulletin) 250 Price [SIT/l] VAT Excise tax Price before tax 0 Germany Italy Austria EU average Country Slovenia 11 Energy Market Liquid fuels supply: Till 2000 aprox. 20% from Lendava refinery Since thantotal dependency on import Transport: 90% sea, 10% rail Sources:* 50% Black sea, 40% France, Italy, 10% Croatia, Hungary Liquid fuels demand: Total consumption 2, t in 2001 Forecast: annual growth rates 0,4% - 0,6% (EU-2010) Faster grow rate in diesel fuels (15 20%) Aprox. 390 service stations Players on the market: 72% share Petrol, 26% share OMV Istrabenz, 1,5% INA *Data from Petrol d.d. 12

7 Energy market Forecast of liquid fuelconsumption 13 Energy Market Decree on Oil Product Pricing Policy Formula: P t = n it CIFMedH n it ei t ρ + r + M 1000 Where: P t - average product price SIT/l P- density (0,755 kg/l gasoline) M - gross margin max 11SIT/l i dailydata t - 2 week interval of the current period n - n=14, 2 week average is monitored (actuallyn=10) e 1USD=xSIT, dailyexchange rate of the Bank of Slovenia(medium for foreign currency) CIF MedH stock exchange quotation for oil product (the highest dailyvaluein USD/t, source: Platt,s Europ. Marketsc. 14

8 Directives and Legislation Decree on oil Product Pricing Policy Strategic oil stock Environmental regulations: - Product quality - Water protection Taxation policy: - Excise tax - C02 tax - VAT: 20% 15 Directives and Legislation Securityof supplyfor petroleum product Strategic oil stocks managed by National Agency for Compulsory Oil Stocks At present 60 days internalconsumption stock t (consumption in year 2000) - Storage capacity: 50% in Slovenia, 50% in EU Financing: 1,6 SIT/l on diesel and lightfuel oil 1,7 SIT/l on motor gasoline 90 days internal consumtpion stock till 2005: t (consumption in year 2005) - Need storage capacity: m3 16

9 Upstream 17 Upstream Field History Dolina Field Discovered in 1942 Petisovci Field Discovered in 1943 Fields developed independently from 1942 to1962 Recent work demonstrates that the two fields are in fact part of a continuous feature on the flank of the Lovaszi field anticline 131 wells drilled across the structure in Slovenia In Slovenia the field has produced 5.6 MMbls of oil and 34 Bcf of gas In Hungary the same structure produced 50 MMblsof oil and 230 Bcf of gas 18

10 Upstream Working programme for the year 2003 Starting April 2003 Pilot project - Workover 3 wells - each well targeting a specific sand unit in each reservoir Programme designed for maximum flexibility If a sand unit tests at a rate, it will be immediately connected and produced 19 Upstream Opportunity: 7 separate sandstone reservoirs APA 2P STOIP for 6 reservoirs 82 MMbls 5.6 MMbls produced to date which is a recovery of 4.6% of STOIP If 20% recovery 10 MMbls remaining APA Reserve Estimates: APA Petroleum Engineering conducted a reserve audit of Nemmoco technical. Audit limited to Petisovci field area only. Reserves: MMbls P(10%): 6,7 2P(50%): 10,7 3P(90%): 17,7 20

11 Conclusions Oil industry in Slovenia has already beenprivatized Applicationof key internal market directives in combination witheu competition law liberalization of the energy market Security of energy supply 21 Conclusions Stock value Petrol, OMV Istrabenz and SBI20 (april april 2003) 22