Pennsylvania s Marcellus Resource Recent Trends, Future Impacts
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1 Pennsylvania s Marcellus Resource Recent Trends, Future Impacts
2 Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 U.S. Energy Consumption
3 73 MW solar farm in Thailand Source: 12/3/10 Wall Street Journal, Sharp Corporation
4 Change in Our Energy Future Energy consumer to producer/exporter. Value-added??
5 Emerging Trends -NG for power generation increased 3% -2/yrs -Most gained from coal-fired plants --permitting? --New EPA rules? -Estimates of 35% by 2030 vs. 22% in GHG emission reduction of 44% by climate legislation?? -political implications alternatives %?? -possible nuclear policy changes Source: Deutsche Bank
6 Utilization A New Future?? -PA s public policy for energy? --Public initiatives --Private efforts --New funding? -Power generation -conv. vs. fuel cell -Feedstock --industrial use --plastics, paper, steel, glass all seeking options --new employment opportunities
7 Transportation Transportation fuels --$8M in new alternative fuel usage -21 new projects in PA -CNG for private/public use ex. Towanda -refueling corridors East/West, North/South Gas To Liquids technologies -diesel -other more efficient fuel chemistry -engine modification and/or redesign -research initiatives -- Commercialize?
8 Marcellus Shale Economic Impact ~60+ companies looking at Marcellus --est. $8 B+ spent in 10 --est. value of Marcellus -$1.5T --Royalties to PA landowners $250 billion? bcf/d in Aug 10 to 5 bcf/d+ (est) in International interest. --Lowest cost shale?? Other shales?? --New trend?? --movement towards NG liquids
9 Marcellus acreage locations TLM: 6 rigs running IPs: MMcfe / d (30-day) Erie Wyoming UPL: 2 rigs running IPs Avg: 7.5 MMcf / d Range: MMcf / d Chautauqua Livingston Yates Steuben Allegany COG: 5 rigs running Recent IPs: MMcf / d Epsilon (EPS) CHK Farm-out Schuyler Otsego Cortland SWN Drilling Schoharie Chenango Tompkins Delaware Broome Cattaraugus NFG Drilling Erie Warren Tioga Chemung Ulster McKean NY Tioga Susquehanna Potter Crawford Elk Forest Wyoming Clarion OH Lawrence REXX Drilling Clinton Indiana Armstrong Beaver Range Res. (RRC) 13 Rigs (6 spudder) IPs up to 26 MMcfe / d Hancock Allegheny Westmoreland Brooke EQT: 30-Day Rates 15.8 MMcfe / d 14.3 MMcfe / d Washington Ohio Fayette Marshall Wetzel Tyler Pleasants Harrison Wood Wirt Bedford Somerset Franklin Fulton Doddridge Ritchie CHK: 3 rigs Lewis Taylor Barbour Morgan Preston Garrett Tucker Mineral Hampshire WV Columbia Montour Monroe Carbon Northumberland Snyder Schuylkill APC: Mifflin RRC: 2 wells PA 3 rigs running Blair 13.5 MMcfe / d (7Cambria Huntingdon Juniata day) Dauphin Berks Perry Lebanon REXX Drilling Recent well: 3.3 MMcfe/d (14-day) Cumberland Monongalia Marion Union Centre Greene CXG: 30-Day Rates 1.6 MMcfe / d 0.8 MMcfe / d 3 IPs: 5 10 MMcf / d Luzerne 7 wells drilled Lycoming Clearfield XCO Drilling Butler CHK: 14 rigs Lackawanna NFG (Seneca) Pike Sullivan Cameron Jefferson Sullivan Wayne Bradford EOG / NFG JV: 2 rigs running Venango Mercer York ATLS Adams Drilled 17 Horizontals IPs: 3-10 MMcfe/d 170+ Verticals Avg IP: 2.2 MMcfe/d Berkeley MD Jefferson CRZO vert activity Grant CHK: 8.7 MMcfe / d CHK: 8.7 MMcfe / d CHK: 8.7 MMcfe / d Hardy Lancaster Northampton NJ Lehigh Bucks Montgomery Chester Philadelphia Delaware DE Legend Antero APC / Mitsui Atlas COG CHK Chief / Enerplus CNX / CXG Carrizo East Resources ECA EnerVest EOG Epsilon EQT EXCO Hess / NFX NFG (Seneca) PDC Range Rex / Williams Samson Stone SWN TLM UPL XOM / XTO DC 9 Source: Credit Suisse, company filings, company presentations and Wall Street research.
10 Wet/Dry Gas in PA
11 Marcellus Production Data Source: Powell Shale Digest 3/18/11
12 Other Shale Targets
13 Pricing Differences
14 Change in State Sales Tax Collections, by County Level Marcellus Drilling Activity July, June, 2010 Sales tax dollars go to the state - none remains at the local level (except in a few urban counties) Counties with more than 150 wells since 2007 include: Bradford (482 wells) Tioga (387 wells) Washington (305 wells) Greene (179 wells) Susquehanna (174 wells) Counties by Number of Marcellus Wells Between 2007 and December, 2010 Source: PA Department of Revenue Statistical Supplements for the Tax Compendium
15 Change in Rights, Royalties & Patents- State Personal Income Tax Collections, by County Level Marcellus Drilling Activity, Counties by Number of Marcellus Wells Between 2007 and 2008 Source: PA Department of Revenue Statistical Supplements for the Tax Compendium, Tim Kelsey - PSU
16 Wells Drilled
17 Major Pipeline/Storage Expansion
18 Bradford Co Pipeline Development
19 Impacts on Business/Communities Local businesses -New business ventures --ex: 75 to 100 new in Wmspt area -New business models -Satellite offices -Brownfields development -Hotels/airports -Job migration Local Communities -Road and traffic impacts --costs/agreements --reconstruction --industry spent est. $200M in 10 -emergency response -human services -water and sewer infrastructure -landfill utilization -workforce -current research to determine impacts
20 2010 Survey of Businesses Bradford and Washington Counties Bradford County Most active Marcellus drilling county 60,384 residents in ,345 businesses Washington County Third most active Marcellus drilling county 200,505 residents in ,082 businesses Source: Ward & Kelsey, PSU 2011
21 2010 Survey of Businesses Bradford and Washington Counties Survey to 1,000 businesses in each county All tourist-related businesses Plus random selection Responses from 619 (response rate of 31%) Conducted by Marcellus Shale Education & Training Center (Penn State Cooperative Extension & Penn College) Funded by PA Dept of Community & Economic Development Source: Ward & Kelsey, PSU 2011
22 Impacts on Businesses, 2010 Bradford & Washington Counties Because of natural gas drilling Percent responding Yes All Responses Bradford County Washington County Have your business activities changed? 17% 22% 9% Have your annual sales increased? 28% 32% 23% Have your annual sales decreased? 3% 3% 2% Has the number of regular non-gas customers increased? Has the number of regular non-gas customers decreased? 7% 10% 3% 3% 3% 2% Source: Ward & Kelsey, PSU 2011
23 Effects on Worker Retention & Hiring Bradford & Washington Counties Has Natural Gas Drilling Affected the ability of your business to find and hire qualified employees? All Responses Percent responding Yes Bradford County Washington County Somewhat easier to find 0.4% 1% - Somewhat more difficult to find 5% 7% 1% Affected your ability to retain your workforce? Much more difficult to find 4% 6% 1% Turnover has increased 5% 9% 1% Turnover has decreased 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Source: Ward & Kelsey, PSU 2011
24 Impacts by Type of Businesses, 2010 Bradford & Washington Counties Percent responding Yes Business Activities Changed? Annual Sales Increased? Bradford Wash. Bradford Wash. Construction 35% 16% 27% 15% Wholesale Trade 28% 20% 33% 50% Retail Trade 25% 8% 44% 28% Financial, Insurance, Real Estate 28% 10% 50% 40% Business Services 20% 6% 33% 16% Eating & Drinking Places 29% 0% 38% 33% Hotels & Campgrounds 80% 50% 100% 50% Source: Ward & Kelsey, PSU 2011
25 Hotel Taxes Collected 700, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,882 0 Bradford Lycoming Tioga
26 Traffic Increases Changes - Bradford County Traffic 5-Year Average vs Counts YR AADT AVG 5-YR TRUCK VOLUME 2010 AADT COUNTS TRUCK VOLUME SR 14, Seg 0310 South of Troy SR 6, Seg 0320 West of Burlington SR 6, Seg 0420 East of Burlington SR 6, Seg 0500 West of SR 220 & Towanda AADT is Average Annual Daily Traffic Source: PennDOT
27 Number of Crashes Traffic Changes - Safety 100 Heavy Truck Crash Statistics Comparing 2008 vs Bradford Lycoming Sullivan Tioga 2008 Crashes 2010 Crashes
28 Source: Norfolk Southern Railroad
29 Rail Car Traffic 6,000 5,700 5,000 4,767 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,471 2,000* 2, Bradford Lycoming Tioga * estimated One railcar equals 4 truck loads
30 Airport Traffic Williamsport Regional Airport --7% increase in passengers from 2008 to % increase in passengers from 2009 to % increase in passengers in last 6 months of 2010 In first two months of 2011, a 27.7% increase in passengers vs. the same period of 2010 On the corporate side, saw a 60% increase in corporate traffic from 2009 to 2010 Additional 72% increase in aircraft that weigh 35,000 lb or more from 2009 to 2010 (includes planes like Gulfstream V s, regional jet type) Airport surveys indicate 32 % of the people are gas related. Current airline went from 35 seat to 50-seat aircraft recently. Second airline with connection to TX currently proposed.
31 Airport Travel (cont d) Bradford County Airport Jet A fuel sales doubled in 2010 over 2009 Air traffic has steadily increased over the past three years Since 2010, now have 4 helicopters based at the airport Elmira Corning Regional Airport Deplanements increased 14% in 2010 from 2009 One gas company has a charter flight that lands about 2 times/month A new parking lot was added in 2009 Already need more space, parking revenue up.
32 Employment trends?
33 Change in Total Employment, by County Level Marcellus Drilling Activity September, September, 2010 Counties by Number of Marcellus Wells Drilled in 2010 Source: PA Department of Labor & Industry, Tim Kelsey - PSU
34 Pennsylvania Rig Count 103 on March 18, 2011 vs. 73 one year ago
35 What does this mean in terms of direct jobs? Number of Workers Medium or 'Likely' Scenario: Estimated SW PA Marcellus Shale Workforce Requirements By Phase Pre-Drilling Drilling Production Year
36 What specific direct jobs are required? Natural Gas Workforce Requirements By Category Semi-Skilled Tech. 6% Landmen/Realty 5% Supervisors 5% Inspectors 1% Engineers 3% X-Ray 1% Welders 3% General Office 20% CDL 10% Gen. Labor 20% Timber Logging 1% Cartog/GIS 1% Lawyers 4% Heavy Equipment 17% Paralegal 1% Geologists 3%
37 Web Resources:
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 2 BRADFORD 20% 57,700 8,080 9,240 10,400 11,540 12,480 13,400 14,320 15,240 16,16
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 ADAMS 20% 68,500 9,600 10,960 12,340 13,700 14,800 15,900 17,000 18,100 19,180 20% 513 240 257 308 356 397 438 479 30% 6/06/2016 14,400
BEAVER 20% 65,600 9,200 10,500 11,820 13,120 14,180 15,220 16,280 17,320 18,360 20%
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 ADAMS 20% 64,100 9,100 10,400 11,700 13,000 14,040 15,080 16,120 17,160 18,200 20% 477 227 243 292 338 377 416 455 30% 5/01/2014 13,650
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 2 BRADFORD 20% 57,500 8,280 9,460 10,640 11,820 12,780 13,720 14,660 15,620 16,54
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 ADAMS 20% 75,100 9,640 11,020 12,400 13,760 14,880 15,980 17,080 18,180 19,260 20% 457 241 258 310 358 399 440 481 30% 6/01/2015 14,500
*** Applicable to SRO units that do not contain both sanitary (bathroom) and food preparation (kitchen) facilities.
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 ADAMS 20% 73,900 10,260 11,720 13,180 14,640 15,820 17,000 18,160 19,340 20,500 20%/FMR 470 256 274 329 380 425 468 512 30% 6/15/2017
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 MTXR044 9:53:16 COUNTY-WIDE
P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 ADAMS 20% 68,300 9,580 10,940 12,300 13,660 14,760 15,860 16,940 18,040 19,120 20%/FMR 413 239 256 307 355 396 437 478 40% 2/09/2012
TABLE B-17 RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS BY RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN OF MOTHER BY COUNTY TOTAL BIRTHS, BIRTH AND GENERAL FERTILITY RATES*: PENNSYLVANIA, 1996
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