Analysis of Biofuel Based Mobility in Hungary

Transcription

1 Analysis of Biofuel Based Mobility in Hungary Dr. Zoltan PETRES PhD [1] Dr. Adam TOROK PhD [2] [1] Computer and dautomation ti Research Institute t of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary, H-1111, Budapest, Kende 13-17, petres@sztaki.hu [2] KTI Institute for Transport Sciences Non-Profit LTD., Hungary, H-1119, Budapest, Than Karoly 3-5, Torok.adam@kti.hu

2 - 1 / 23 -

3 - 2 / 23 - Fig. 1. Time series of temperature and CO 2 concentration [source: Tanczos K, Torok A The linkage of climate change and energy consumption of Hungary in the road transportation sector: Transport 22(2), p )]

4 - 3 / 23 - Fig. 2. Motorisation and economical activity [source: NationMaster] Automobiles are today an integral part of our way of living, our society

5 Estimated t GHG emission i 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Industry Residental and commercial buildings Agriculture Road Transport Railroad Aviation Waterbourne Industry Residental and commercial buildings Agriculture Road Transport Railroad Aviation Waterbourne - 4 / 23 - Fig 3. Carbon dioxide emission of humanity (source: The linkage of climate c4hange and energy consumption of Hungary in the road transportation sector: Katalin Tánczos, Török Á., Transport Journal (ISSN ) 2007/2, (p ))

6 - 5 / 23 -

7 - 5 / 23 -

8 - 6 / 19 - Fig 4 Direct and indirect emission of fuels Fig. 4. Direct and indirect emission of fuels [source: UBA 2008, KTI 2008]

9 - 7 / 19 - Fig. 5. Distance that can be reached with passenger car with the energy from 1 hectare of plants [source: UBA 2008, KTI database 2008]

10 - 8 / 19 - Fig. 6. Environmental impact of transport (source: own research)

11 E0 E0 Gasoline - Ethanol blends E90 E90 E95 E95 E100 E100 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 E5 E5 E10 E10 E15 E15 5 Oxygen Requirement [m3] Carbon dioxide produktum [m3] H2O produktum [m3] Total Impact [m3] Corrected oxygen requirement [m3] Corrected carbon dioxide produktum [m3] Corrected H2O produktum [m3] Corrected Total Impact [m3] E85 E85 2,000 1,500 E20 E20 E80 E80 1,000 0,500 0,000 E25 E25 E75 E75 E30 E30 E70 E70 E35 E35 E65 E65 E40 E40 E60 E60 E55 E55 E50 E50 E45 E45-9 / 19 - Fig. 7. Estimation of biofuel blend environmental impact [source: own calculation]

12 Diesel - Biodiesel - Ethanol Blends D100E0B0 D95E5B0 D95E5B0 5,000 D0E0B100 D0E0B100 D95E0B5 D95E0B5 D90E0B10 D90E0B10 D90E10B0 D90E10B0 D90E5B5 D90E5B5 D85E15B0 D85E15B0 D85E10B05 D85E10B05 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 0,500 0, Oxygen Requirement [m3] Carbon dioxide produktum [m3] D10E20B70 D5E20B75 D5E20B75 D15E20B65 D15E20B65 D0E20B80 D0E20B80 D20E20B60 D20E20B60 D25E20B55 D25E20B55 D30E20B50 D30E20B50 H2O produktum [m3] Total Impact [m3] D85E5B10 D85E5B10 Corrected oxygen requirement [m3] Corrected carbon dioxide produktum [m3] Corrected H2O produktum [m3] D35E20B45 D35E20B45 D40E20B40 D40E20B40 D45E20B35 D45E20B35 Corrected Total Impact [m3] D85E0B15 D85E0B15 D80E20B0 D80E20B0 D80E10B10 D80E10B10 D50E20B30 D50E20B30 D55E20B25 D55E20B25 D60E20B20 D60E20B20 D65E20B15 D65E20B15 D70E20B10 D70E20B10 D80E0B20 D80E0B20 D75E20B5 D75E20B5-10 / 19 - Fig. 8. Estimation of biofuel blend environmental impact [source: own calculation]

13 - 11 / 19 -

14 - 11 / 19 -

15 - 12 / 19 - Fig. 9. Cybernetic model of market equilibrium with two concurring products (source: Oscar R. Lange: to Economic Cybernetics, own research)

16 area [Thous sand ha] Cultivation Wheat Corn - 13 / 19 - Fig. 10. Cultivation area in Hungary (source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office)

17 2 HUF/year 60,000 50,000 Wheat [HUF/kg] - 14 / 19-40,000 Corn [HUF/kg] 30,000 20,000 10, , ,000 Linearised (Price of Wheat [HUF/kg] 50,000 wheat) [HUF/kg] 11 HUF/year Linearised (Price of 40, corn) [HUF/kg] Corn [HUF/kg] 30, ,000 10, Lineáris (Wheat [HUF/kg] , ) Lineáris (Corn Fig. 11. Market price of corn and wheat [HUF/kg] [HUF/kg] ) (source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, own research ) Fig. 12. Market price of corn and wheat [HUF/kg] (source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office, own research)

18 Our assumptions: the agricultural product prices increasing more rapidly because of the heavy investment in bioethanol production in Hungary since we completely neglected European agricultural product prices in general, because Hungary is traditionally an agricultural exporting country / 19 -

19 - 16 / 19 -

20 - 16 / 19 -

21 The environmental aspect of biofuel is questionable Despite interesting advantages offered by biodiesel, a few technical problems still remain to limit its successful and practical use The experience with ethanol in Brazil could be replicated in other developing countries (such as Hungary), because many of these countries already can gradually start to produce bioalcohol fuel both for domestic supply and, later on, for export Food security aspects must be taken into account... The viability of crop-based biofuels as a climate change mitigation strategy depends strongly on the magnitude of the land use change adder / 19 -

22 - 18 / 19 - Thank you for your kind attention!

23 1. Crabbe E et. al.: Biodiesel production from crude palm oil and evaluation of butanol extraction and fuel properties 2001 Process Biochemistry, Volume 37, Number 1, September 2001, pp Ma F, Hanna M A.: Biodiesel production: a review 1999 Bioresource Technology, Volume 70 pp Council for Agricultural Science and Technology: Convergence of agriculture and energy: Implications - 19 / 19 - for Research and Policy 2006, CAST Commentary QTA (Ames, Iowa: CAST). 4. Kenneth e G Cassman: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security Environmental Resource. Letters, Volume 2, 3pp. 5. Nikolett PEZSA, Adam TOROK: Environmental impacts of biofuel blends theoretical estimation 2008, FISITA 2008 World Automotive Congress Munich, Germany F2008-SC Michael Wang: Learning from the Brazilian biofuel experience Environmental Resource. Letters, Volume 1, 2pp. 7. KA Small, K Van Dender: Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect 2007, Energy Journal, vol. 28, no. 1, pp Stern, Nicholas: The economics of climate change : the Stern review, 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, g, UK. ISBN Oil Depedence: Is transport running out of affordable fuel? 2008, OECD, International Transport Forum Joint Transport Research Center. 10. D G Infield: Renewable energy technology from underpinning physics to engineering application Journal of Physics: Conference Series Kenneth G Cassman: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security 2007, - Environmental Research Letter, Volume 2, 3pp. 12. AZ Abdullah, N Razali, H Mootabadi and B Salamatinia: Critical technical areas for future improvement in biodiesel technologies 2007 Environmental Research Letter, Volume 2, 6pp. 13. José Goldemberg: The ethanol program in Brazil 2006 Environmental Research Letter, Volume Vou 2, 5pp. 14. RJ Plevin and S Mueller: The effect of CO 2 regulations on the cost of corn ethanol production 2008, Environmental Resource Letter, Volume 3, 9pp.