International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book

Transcription

1 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book May 2017 FAPRI-MU Report #02-17 Prepared by FAPRI-MU, Division of Applied Social Sciences fapri.missouri.edu

2 Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri (MU), 101 Park DeVille Drive, Suite E; Columbia, MO FAPRI MU is part of the Division of Applied Social Sciences (DASS) in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR). This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No , and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project number MO-HASS0024. Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture nor the University of Missouri. This report was prepared by Deepayan Debnath Julian Binfield Jarrett Whistance Patrick Westhoff and Wyatt Thompson The authors would like to thank participants in a workshop reviewing a preliminary version of these estimates in Washington, D.C., in December Any remaining errors are those of the authors. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and FAPRI MU. The University of Missouri does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, age, genetics information, disability or status as a protected veteran. For more information, call Human Resource Services at or the US Department of Education, Office of Civil Rights.

3 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Table of contents Summary... 2 Macroeconomic assumptions... 3 World ethanol policy summary... 4 World biodiesel policy summary...5 World ethanol price, production, use and trade... 6 Argentina ethanol... 8 Brazil ethanol... 9 Canada ethanol European Union ethanol Rest of the world ethanol Ethanol summary table Feedstocks use for ethanol production table World biodiesel price, production, use and trade Argentina biodiesel Brazil biodiesel European Union biodiesel Indonesia biodiesel Malaysia biodiesel Rest of the world biodiesel Biodiesel summary table... 23

4 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Summary Biofuel markets continue to be sensitive to changes in agricultural commodity markets, petroleum markets, and biofuel policies. The biofuel market projections reported here are based on the March 2017 outlook* for world agricultural commodity markets developed by analysts at the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU) and collaborating institutions. These projections were prepared using market information available in January Macroeconomic assumptions (see table) are based primarily on forecasts by IHS Markit, and include a West Texas Intermediate crude oil price that rises steadily to surpass $100/barrel by The baseline incorporates biofuel mandates and assumes a continuation of current policies in major producing and consuming countries. Highlights: U.S. ethanol net exports double from 2017 to Rising oil prices make ethanol more competitive as a fuel, and the United States captures much of the increase in global use. Brazilian anhydrous ethanol prices remain above U.S. market prices, limiting the ability of Brazilian ethanol to compete in international markets. The European Union continues to be a net importer of ethanol and biodiesel, but policy uncertainty mean different market outcomes are possible, especially when current policies expire in The price of Argentine soybean oil-based biodiesel is projected to rise from $3.33/gallon in 2017 to $3.96/gallon by Argentina continues to be a major exporter of biodiesel. However, uncertainty surrounding removal of the U.S. biodiesel tax credit could impact Argentinean biodiesel exports. Rising domestic use mandates drive an increase in Indonesian biodiesel consumption. For the next several years, higher prices of vegetable oil relative to crude oil limits discretionary blending of biodiesel. *See for the U.S. Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-17) and other information regarding the baseline. 2

5 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Macroeconomic assumptions Calendar year Crude oil price (U.S. dollars per barrel) West Texas Intermediate oil Refiners acquisition oil Real GDP growth (Percent change from previous year) World Argentina Brazil Canada European Union Indonesia Malaysia Rest of world Population growth (Percent change from previous year) World Argentina Brazil Canada European Union Indonesia Malaysia Rest of world Inflation rates (Percent change from previous year) Argentina Brazil Canada European Union Indonesia Malaysia Exchange rates (Currency per U.S. dollar) Argentina Peso Brazil Real Canada $ European Union Euro Indonesia Rupiah 13,321 14,128 14,522 13,644 13,295 13,351 13,454 13,580 13,714 13,851 13,976 Malaysia $ Source: Except as noted below, IHS Global Insight, Dec (world) and Jan (U.S.). 3

6 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline World ethanol policy summary In the U.S., EPA finalized the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2017 and they include a billion gallon overall requirement and a 4.28 billion gallon advanced requirement of biofuels. This implies conventional ethanol can account for the full statutory limit of 15 billion gallons.* Brazil continues to maintain a 27% ethanol blending rate. There is no import tariff on ethanol. In January 2017, Petrobras, the Brazilian state run fuel supplier that controls domestic petroleum product prices, cut refinery-gate prices of gasoline by 1.4% and diesel by 5.1% and proposed to cut both the prices further. Argentina increased the ethanol blending mandate from 10% to 12% in This 2% increase in the domestic blending mandate is distributed exclusively among the sugarcane industry. In 2016, the new Canadian government signed the Paris Agreement and pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% from 2005 levels by Canada continues to maintain a federal blending mandate of 5% renewable fuel in gasoline. Canada also has subnational ethanol blending mandates that vary across the provinces. British Columbia has a low carbon fuel standard that targets a 10% decrease in carbon intensity between 2010 and Beginning in 2017, Alberta started applying a carbon levy at the rate of $20/ton. According to the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED) in the EU, use of food-crop based biofuels is capped at 7% of the total 10% renewable fuels target in the transportation sector by In order to promote sustainability, RED sets the criteria of GHG emission savings and land use requirement for biofuels production to meet 35% threshold of GHG emission savings in Currently, anti-dumping duties have prevented the U.S. from exporting ethanol to the EU for fuel use. However, the EU might cut the anti-dumping duties in the future years. There is a mandated 10% ethanol blending rate in China that is limited to a few provinces and cities. There are no plans to increase the blend rate beyond 10%. In January 2017, the Chinese government increased the ethanol import tariff from 5% to 30%. Use of food-based crops for production of ethanol is prohibited in India. Japan is on track to introduce 824 million liters of ethanol by 2017 through the use of Bio Ethyl Tert-Butyl Ether (ETBE) blended gasoline. All the mandates are assumed over the projection period. *Detailed information on the U.S. biofuel market is available in: U.S. Baseline Briefing Book, FAPRI-MU Report #

7 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline World biodiesel policy summary The U.S. EPA finalized the 2018 RVO of 2.1 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel. A key uncertainty is whether the biodiesel blenders tax credit will be renewed in 2017.* Biodiesel is blended at a minimum level of 10% with diesel in Argentina. The export tax on biodiesel was increased from 3.96% (2015) to 5.04% (2016), which is much lower than the export tax on soybean oil. The Brazilian biodiesel mandate is at 7% in 2017 and increases by 1% each year to 10% by The import tariff is fixed at 14%. According to RED sustainability criteria in the EU, biodiesel is required to be produced sustainably on land that is not considered to be high carbon density land. The Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) in the EU limits the use of soybean oil and palm oil as feedstock in biodiesel production. Beyond the anti-dumping duties on biodiesel imports in the EU, the sustainability requirements laid down in the Renewable Energy Directive would significantly hinder biodiesel imports. Indonesia is targeting a domestic biodiesel blending mandate of 30% by However, the current biodiesel penetration rate of 8% was assumed over the projection period. The Indonesian government has lodged a complaint with the WTO over the anti-dumping duties on biodiesel imposed by the EU. Malaysia has fully implemented a 7% biodiesel blending mandate and plans to introduce B10. The biodiesel sector in China lacks government attention. Only one province, Hainan, has a blending mandate of 2-5%. China has free trade agreements with ASEAN countries, including Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports biodiesel from those countries without tariff. Currently, there is no biodiesel mandate in India. After the decentralization of the domestic diesel market, biodiesel producers are allowed to sell biodiesel directly to the consumer. India continues to implement an import tax of 26.42% on biodiesel. Philippines has a biodiesel blend mandate of 2% and restricts imports of biodiesel. All the mandates and tariffs are assumed to continue over the projection period. *Detailed information on the U.S. biofuel market is available in: U.S. Baseline Briefing Book, FAPRI-MU Report #

8 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline World ethanol price, production, use and trade Throughout the projection period, the wholesale U.S. Omaha rack ethanol price remains lower than the price of Brazilian anhydrous ethanol. Rising sugar prices in the international market put pressure in feedstock market in Brazil, while there is abundant maize available for ethanol production in the U.S. The upward pressure on the ethanol market is caused by rising oil price and expanding mandated use in few places. With increasing investment in ethanol capacity, ethanol production is expected to increase over time. Higher crude oil price assumptions push fuel ethanol use further. Other ethanol use, which includes chemical and beverage uses remains flat across the projection period. U.S. net exports are projected to increase significantly while Brazilian exports fall after 2022 in order to meet increasing domestic hydrous ethanol (E100) demand. *See U.S. Baseline Briefing Book, FAPRI-MU Report #

9 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Ethanol price Calendar year Bioethanol price (U.S. dollars per liter) Anhydrous Santos F.O.B. (Brazil) Omaha Rack (U.S.)* Bioethanol price (U.S. dollars per gallon) Anhydrous Santos F.O.B. (Brazil) Omaha Rack (U.S.)* *See U.S Baseline Outlook World ethanol trade Calendar year Net exports (Million liters) Argentina Brazil 1,224 1,495 1,768 2,341 2,720 2,863 2,889 2,492 2,090 1,797 1,525 Canada -1,130-1,164-1,144-1,149-1,142-1,139-1,129-1,115-1,097-1,080-1,060 European Union United States* 3,724 3,818 4,223 4,220 4,464 4,774 5,401 6,548 7,488 8,346 9,084 Rest of world -2,857-3,036-3,610-4,190-4,858-5,357-6,041-6,794-7,345-7,900-8,346 Discrepancies *For details see 2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book, FAPRI-MU Report # Note: The U.S. baseline briefing book reports the mean of stochastic results for the U.S. markets. Figures reported here are from a deterministic solution, and will therefore differ slightly. 7

10 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Argentina ethanol The Argentinean government targets ethanol policies to boost the domestic ethanol market. The steady increase in the domestic use of ethanol is the result of the increase in the total motor fuel use in Argentina. Ethanol is blended in gasoline at the rate of 12%. Argentina was essentially selfsufficient in ethanol production and use. Domestic ethanol prices are higher than the world price, so there is little incentive for ethanol producers to export their product. There is no government restriction on the direct use of sugarcane to produce ethanol. However, mostly sugarcane molasses is used in Argentina for ethanol production. A significant component of maize is used as a feedstock for ethanol production. The use of both feedstocks is projected to increase as the production of ethanol increases. 8

11 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Brazil ethanol As Petrobras controls the gasoline price, domestic demand for hydrous (E100) ethanol is anticipated to be flatter in the near term. However, both the domestic use and production are projected to increase and are driven mainly by the assumed increasing crude oil price. Brazilian ethanol loses price competitiveness in the world market. With increasing domestic ethanol use, ethanol exports are projected to fall sharply after By 2026, Brazilian ethanol net exports are projected to be 1.5 billion liters. The U.S. remains the major importer of the Brazil s ethanol over the projection period. In the short-term, producers find it difficult to use sugarcane for ethanol production as sugar production is relatively more profitable than ethanol. However, it is expected that sugarcane feedstock use recovers after 2017, and sugarcane use for ethanol production in Brazil will continue to increase. 9

12 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Canada ethanol Domestic ethanol use in Canada is driven by a 5% federal mandate as well as provincial mandates. Ethanol production facilities are running near their capacity. However, it is not enough to meet the domestic mandates, and production is not expected to grow much over the projection period. Canada relies on the world ethanol market to meet the domestic ethanol mandate. In the projection period, imports are expected to continue to account for a portion of domestic use. Almost all of Canada s ethanol imports come from the U.S. Canadian imports are expected to decrease by 104 million liters by the end of the projection period mainly because of the slight increase in domestic production. Wheat use as an ethanol feedstock is projected to remain flat as the livestock and ethanol industries compete for wheat. Maize is expected to have a lower relative cost compared to wheat, so its use as an ethanol feedstock is projected to increase over the projection period. 10

13 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline European Union ethanol Domestic ethanol use and production are projected to decline after 2020, given the uncertainly regarding the biofuels policy in the EU after the expiration of the current RED. The EU s net ethanol imports are anticipated to be much lower compared to the 2011 spike. The elimination of anti-dumping duties have limited effect, considering the sustainability goals introduced in biofuel production in the EU. As projected ethanol production declines in the EU, so does the use of crops as ethanol feedstock. The largest decline is in the use of maize which is projected to fall by 0.9 million MT by the end of the projection period. 11

14 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Rest of the world ethanol Rest of the world (ROW) consists of many heterogeneous countries with ambitious ethanol blend mandate policies, such as India and China. The rising crude oil price causes higher ethanol use and production. Of the two, ethanol use increases at a higher rate. In 2017, 46% of the total use of ethanol is used as fuel. That share is projected to reach 59% by In level terms, ethanol fuel use is projected to increase by 7 billion liters by 2026, while the other use increases by 0.2 billion liters over the same period. The price advantage of ethanol over petroleum increases the domestic use of ethanol in the rest of the world. The absence of significant ethanol production capacity implies ROW relies on international market and most of the ethanol is projected to be imported from the U.S. 12

15 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Ethanol production, use and trade by country Calendar year (Million liters) Argentina Production 990 1,086 1,218 1,323 1,392 1,467 1,541 1,607 1,671 1,730 1,788 Imports Fuel use ,098 1,152 1,212 1,272 1,332 1,404 1,470 1,548 1,620 Other use Exports Stocks Brazil Production 28,022 26,974 27,878 28,366 29,015 29,722 30,432 30,954 31,394 31,813 32,172 Imports Fuel use 26,007 24,183 24,325 24,183 24,428 24,972 25,644 26,565 27,404 28,109 28,733 Other use 1,685 1,790 1,800 1,810 1,820 1,830 1,840 1,850 1,860 1,870 1,880 Exports 2,133 1,801 1,803 2,391 2,770 2,913 2,939 2,542 2,140 1,804 1,805 Stocks 6,558 5,632 5,617 5,649 5,696 5,753 5,812 5,860 5,900 5,937 5,970 Canada Production 1,805 1,809 1,816 1,829 1,850 1,862 1,873 1,884 1,896 1,907 1,920 Imports 1,190 1,227 1,208 1,213 1,204 1,202 1,192 1,178 1,160 1,143 1,123 Fuel use 2,750 2,758 2,740 2,752 2,759 2,764 2,761 2,753 2,742 2,730 2,718 Other use Exports Stocks European Union Production 6,846 6,870 6,849 6,858 6,856 6,842 6,822 6,801 6,783 6,766 6,751 Imports , ,003 Fuel use 5,175 5,179 5,182 5,187 5,141 5,102 5,067 5,037 5,010 4,988 4,986 Other use 2,450 2,464 2,477 2,491 2,504 2,518 2,531 2,545 2,558 2,572 2,585 Exports Stocks 1,846 1,814 1,799 1,814 1,830 1,830 1,823 1,818 1,811 1,803 1,796 Rest of the world Production 16,908 17,288 17,548 17,751 17,957 18,162 18,362 18,550 18,722 18,881 19,025 Imports 4,675 4,765 5,281 5,802 6,405 6,833 7,448 8,136 8,622 9,110 9,488 Fuel use 8,097 9,262 9,925 10,639 11,519 12,297 13,139 14,073 14,804 15,526 16,108 Other use 11,585 11,058 11,231 11,301 11,294 11,221 11,261 11,269 11,261 11,253 11,261 Exports 1,818 1,729 1,671 1,612 1,548 1,475 1,407 1,343 1,277 1,210 1,142 Stocks 2,165 2,169 2,171 2,173 2,175 2,177 2,179 2,181 2,183 2,185 2,186 13

16 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Feedstock use in ethanol production by country Calendar year (Thousand MT) Argentina Maize 1,239 1,362 1,531 1,667 1,757 1,855 1,953 2,041 2,126 2,204 2,284 Sugarcane molasses 1,337 1,464 1,639 1,777 1,865 1,962 2,057 2,141 2,221 2,294 2,368 Brazil Sugarcane 350, , , , , , , , , , ,150 Canada Maize 3,190 3,201 3,219 3,246 3,287 3,313 3,338 3,363 3,389 3,413 3,440 Wheat European Union Maize 5,033 4,980 4,970 4,913 4,810 4,655 4,535 4,425 4,321 4,220 4,122 Wheat 2,356 2,295 2,220 2,154 2,085 2,012 1,938 1,864 1,791 1,719 1,648 Barley Rye

17 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline World biodiesel price, production, use and trade Both the soybean oil price and fossil fuel price drive the biodiesel market. In 2017, the Argentinean biodiesel price is projected to be $3.33/gallon, while the soybean oil price is $3.26/gallon.* The refiners acquisition crude oil price remains below the Argentinean soybean oil price, and the Argentinean biodiesel price follows the soybean oil price path throughout the projection period. World biodiesel use continues to grow in response to rising crude oil prices as well as domestic policies such as mandates and production subsidies. There are upward trends projected for soybean production in Argentina and palm oil production in Indonesia. This pushes global production as both countries continue to produce biodiesel. World biodiesel trade remains low over the projection period. *See International Crops Baseline Briefing Book, University Center for Economic Development, University of Nevada. 15

18 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Biodiesel and soybean oil price Calendar year Biodiesel price (U.S. dollars per liter) Rosario, Argentina F.O.B. (incl. exp. tax) European Union Antwerp-Rotterdam- Amsterdam (ARA) F.O.B Soybean oil price* (U.S. dollars per liter) Buenos Aires, Argentina F.O.B Biodiesel price (U.S. dollars per gallon) Rosario, Argentina F.O.B. (incl. exp. tax) European Union ARA F.O.B Soybean oil price* (U.S. dollars per gallon) Buenos Aires, Argentina F.O.B *International oilseed baseline briefing book, University of Nevada. World biodiesel trade Calendar year (Million liters) Net exports Argentina 1,761 1,903 1,907 1,991 2,079 2,187 2,261 2,354 2,461 2,584 2,706 Brazil European Union Indonesia ,071 1,013 1,064 1,171 1,066 1, Malaysia United States* -1,970-2,555-2,372-2,403-2,353-2,447-2,400-2,351-2,437-2,319-2,377 Rest of the world Discrepancies *For details see 2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book, FAPRI-MU Report # Note: The U.S. baseline briefing book reports the mean of stochastic results for the U.S. markets. Figures reported here are from a deterministic solution, and will therefore differ slightly. 16

19 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Argentina biodiesel Argentina continues to produce biodiesel from soybean oil. Domestic production increases at a faster rate than consumption to satisfy increasing export demand. After the U.S. allowed selected Argentinean biorefinaries to qualify for the Renewable Fuel Standard in 2016, the Argentinean biodiesel exports increased to 1.7 billion liters. During the projection period, exports continue to grow. Biodiesel enjoys a significant export tax break compared to soybeans and soybean oil which have export taxes of 30% and 27%, respectively. This results in a diversion of soybean oil to biodiesel production over the projection period. 17

20 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Brazil biodiesel Brazil is mostly self-sufficient with regard to biodiesel production and use. Brazilian consumption is projected to increase as the domestic biodiesel mandate increases from 7% in 2017 to 10% of diesel use in Brazilian biodiesel production is regulated by the government and increases as domestic mandates increase. By 2026, Brazil is projected to import 120 million liters of biodiesel, which is around 2% of the total volume of biodiesel produced in Brazil that year. The increase in biodiesel production in Brazil implies an increased demand for soybean oil. By 2026, 4 million MT of soybean oil are projected to be used as feedstock for biodiesel production. 18

21 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline European Union biodiesel In the EU, domestic biodiesel use and production are projected to be 15.3 billion liters and 14.8 billion liters, respectively, in There is uncertainty over the biodiesel policy in the EU after RED expires in Anti-dumping duties on biodiesel import are anticipated to be removed. However, sustainability policies will restrict palm oil based biodiesel imports from Indonesia. By 2026, the EU s biodiesel imports are projected to decrease by 116 million liters compared to the level projected for Use of animal fat, among the other feedstocks used in the production of biodiesel, increases over the projection period. Rapeseed oil remains the other major food-based feedstock used in biodiesel production in the EU. 19

22 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Indonesia biodiesel Indonesia continues to increase biodiesel production in order to meet rising domestic mandates that target 30% blending in transportation fuel by Indonesia is projected to lose biodiesel export share in later years as domestic use grows and the EU enforces sustainability criteria on biodiesel imports. However, exports are expected to increase to the U.S. in the short-term to help to meet rising mandates in that country. With anticipated high palm oil supplies, crude palm oil continues to be the primary feedstock used in biodiesel production. By 2026, nearly 5 million MT of palm oil is used for biodiesel production. 20

23 FAPRI MU 2017 InternaƟonal Biofuels Baseline Malaysia biodiesel Production of biodiesel exceeds domestic use in Malaysia. However, the gap shrinks as the government implements a 7% mandate and plans to increase it to 10%. In 2017, domestic biodiesel use is expected to increase by 18% relative to Malaysia is a major biodiesel exporter. Although the EU imposed antidumping duties on Argentinean and Indonesian biodiesel, it did not impose them on biodiesel coming from Malaysia. Nevertheless, exports are projected to shrink in the longer term as domestic consumption is projected to increase at a steady rate. The government encourages the use of palm oil to make biodiesel. The use of palm oil for biodiesel production is projected to surpass 1 million MT by

24 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Rest of the world biodiesel Biodiesel use is projected to increase in the rest of the world as the crude oil price rises. The increasing profitability drives the ROW biodiesel production over the projection period. With the soybean oil price projected to be higher than the refiner s acquisition crude oil price, discretionary use of biodiesel is not expected over the projection period.* *See International Crops Baseline Briefing Book, University Center for Economic Development, University of Nevada. 22

25 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Biodiesel production, use and trade by country Calendar year (Million liters) Argentina Production 2,955 3,102 3,157 3,326 3,483 3,666 3,815 3,991 4,189 4,404 4,621 Imports Use 1,114 1,183 1,243 1,314 1,384 1,454 1,533 1,613 1,701 1,789 1,887 Exports 1,761 1,903 1,907 1,991 2,079 2,187 2,261 2,354 2,461 2,584 2,706 Stocks Brazil Production 3,807 4,022 4,213 4,439 4,628 4,871 5,082 5,304 5,535 5,752 5,948 Imports Use 3,807 4,084 4,308 4,536 4,766 5,000 5,236 5,420 5,606 5,851 6,042 Exports Stocks ,003 1,023 1,054 1,086 1,116 1,148 1,180 1,207 European Union Production 13,370 13,448 14,024 14,575 14,552 14,597 14,663 14,697 14,721 14,792 14,811 Imports ,018 1,111 1, Use 14,070 14,070 14,796 15,446 15,332 15,315 15,370 15,371 15,343 15,339 15,314 Exports Stocks 1,558 1,556 1,561 1,567 1,567 1,567 1,568 1,569 1,569 1,570 1,571 Indonesia Production 2,955 3,950 4,167 4,456 4,716 4,997 5,232 5,476 5,716 5,960 6,185 Imports Use 2,841 2,953 3,159 3,371 3,690 3,919 4,049 4,398 4,648 5,021 5,288 Exports ,071 1,013 1,064 1,171 1,066 1, Stocks Malaysia Production 911 1,078 1,100 1,138 1,162 1,193 1,205 1,223 1,239 1,259 1,272 Imports Use ,000 Exports Stocks Rest of the world Production 4,971 5,093 5,197 5,285 5,361 5,429 5,490 5,546 5,598 5,648 5,697 Imports 1,653 1,291 1,356 1,374 1,520 1,600 1,785 1,865 1,941 2,061 2,104 Use 4,521 4,780 4,902 5,056 5,239 5,414 5,621 5,777 5,909 6,061 6,173 Exports 1,742 1,567 1,598 1,597 1,626 1,597 1,605 1,606 1,608 1,604 1,606 Stocks 3,659 3,696 3,748 3,754 3,771 3,789 3,839 3,867 3,889 3,933 3,956 23

26 FAPRI MU 2017 Interna onal Biofuels Baseline Feedstock use in biodiesel production by country Calendar year (Thousand MT) Argentina Soyoil 2,671 2,804 2,853 3,006 3,148 3,314 3,449 3,608 3,787 3,981 4,178 Brazil Soyoil 2,629 2,766 2,885 3,028 3,144 3,296 3,425 3,561 3,701 3,831 3,946 European Union Rapeseed oil 5,834 5,846 5,997 6,264 6,291 6,335 6,382 6,409 6,303 6,347 6,368 Others 5,932 5,989 6,344 6,562 6,515 6,511 6,522 6,525 6,651 6,670 6,665 Indonesia Palm oil 2,600 3,189 3,364 3,598 3,807 4,034 4,224 4,421 4,614 4,812 4,994 Malaysia Palm oil ,002 1,023 1,050 1,060 1,076 1,090 1,108 1,120 24