Global Lead-Acid Battery Trends And Component Advances - Through The Lens Of A Component Supplier
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1 Global Lead-Acid Battery Trends And Component Advances - Through The Lens Of A Component Supplier Dr. Pete Smith May 3 rd, Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2 Energy Storage History Lead-acid battery VRLA lead-acid battery NiMH battery Lithium-Ion battery Invented in 1859 MWh Global Battery Market Growth Highest growth in Li-ion in last decade Developed in 1970s Invented in 1967/ commercialized in 1990s Invented in 1970s/ commercialized in 1990s Performance Comparison Lead Acid NiMH: Nickel metal Hydride; Li-ion: Lithium-ion NiMH/Li-ion Wh/kg Wh/liter Charge Efficiency 75% 97% Deeper Discharge Tolerance up to 80% up to 100% Discharge Cycle X 2X Cost X 3X Li-ion/NiMH has significant advantages over lead-acid battery on energy density, charge efficiency, deep cycling and discharge cycles Li-ion has Performance Advantages but Lead-acid Retains Significant Share Why the Consternation about the Lead-acid Battery Industry? 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2 Source: Avicenne Energy and UltraLife
3 Lead-acid Attractiveness Lead-acid Battery Lower Energy Density Limited Charge Efficiency Not Very Deep Cycling Production Environment 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
4 Lead-acid Industry Attractiveness Capital Investment Examples Enterprise Value/EBITDA: JCI (~10X) Enersys (~8.3X) Private equity sponsor investment Trojan, Exide Technology, C&D Industry Property, Plant and Equipment Investment $, million 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Enersys Johnson Controls Significant investment and valuations Significant and sustained investment Capacity expansion JCI: announced the investments of $555 million between 2011 and 2020 to expand capacity Johnson Controls Official Website (2015) Enersys: announced acquisitions in Australia, South East Asia, South America and built plant China in last 5 years ( )) East Penn looking at $66.8 million dollar expansion in Oelwein Daily Register News (2015) Daramic: new capacity expansion in China and India Continuing Capital Investments and Expanding Capacity in the Lead-acid Industry 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4 Source: Johnson Controls and Enersys 10K, Company official website, Daily Register, BEST magazine, Yahoo Finance
5 Lead-acid Industry Innovation World Wide Patent Filings Related to Lead-acid Batteries Overview 196% 5,278 International World Wide Patent Filings Related to Lead-acid Batteries by Region 498 1, % 21 7% US % Europe % 1,785 Korea % China 294 2, % Patent Filling ( ) Patent Filling ( ) Step change increase Global innovation Significant Innovation Increases in the Last 10 Years across All Regions 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5 Source: Keyword patent search
6 Lead-acid Battery Patents # of independent patent Top filers in International lead-acid battery category 2005-Present 0 PANASONIC LG SANYO JOHNSON GS DARAMIC IQ POWER ASAHI KASEI CHEM ELECTRIC. CONTROLS YUASA ITM SEMICONDUC TOSHIBA SHIN KOBE Li-ion battery makers Lead-acid battery makers Separator maker Separator maker (cross IP) Mix of Conglomerates, Lead-acid manufacturers, Suppliers and Application Owners Invested in Patents 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6 Source: Keyword patent search
7 Why Does Innovation Happen Now? Lead-acid Battery Large investments in the industry and highest patent filing in history 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
8 Battery Working Pattern Changes Battery working pattern ( ) Battery working pattern ( ) Automotive Depth of discharge Battery mainly for starting vehicle low discharge percentage and always fully charged Depth of discharge Start-Stop in Automotive requests battery always in PSOC Industrial Battery (forklift) operates in an organized way, enough time in charging and cooling down Forklift battery needs to work more efficiently with faster charging Renewable energy also has limited time to charge battery Both Automotive and Industrial Batteries Evolved with Higher Usage Frequency and Higher Power Output under PSoC* 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8 *PSoC: Partial State of Charge
9 Depth of Discharge % Battery Discharge Depth Changes Battery working pattern ( ) Battery working pattern ( ) Fully charged Auto Industrial Motive Stationary Power Auto Industrial Motive Stationary Power 10% 50% 80% Fully discharged Wider range of partial state of charge and higher energy output and discharge deeper across automotive and industrial applications Battery Working Pattern Changes in All Key Lead-acid Applications 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
10 What Is The Future And Implication? Lead-acid Battery Working pattern changes will drive battery performance changes across applications in future 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10
11 New Insights/Changes in Automotive Vehicle Electrification Requirement Charge Acceptance Improvement Power Output Cycling in PSOC* Lead-Acid Battery Battery management system became critical to impact battery performance/life Other Key Component *Partial State of Charge Heat Resistance Improvement Cost Reduction Li-on / Ni-MH / etc. Increasing Auto Electrification Requires Lead-acid Improvements of Charge Acceptance, Durability and Power Output 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
12 New Insights/Changes in Motive Power Off work (charge) Forklift Traditional Working Pattern Depth of discharge Lead-Acid Battery % 100 In work (discharge) Historical Battery Utilization Requirement 50 0 Longer Life in faster charge Other Key Component Working hour Improvement Off work (charge) Longer Life with higher capacity Charger needs to deliver more and impact on battery life In work (discharge) Forklift New Working Pattern*(Trend) % Depth of discharge Off work (charge) In work (discharge) Working hour Better Utilization Requires the Improvement of Rechargability and Higher Output while Maintaining Long Life 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
13 New Insights/Changes in Stationary Telecom Renewable Energy M, cell % Stationary+ Renewable Energy F Telecom and renewable energy mainly work in remote and hot area - requires no/low maintenance Renewable energy Unstable charge/discharge which leads to PSOC operation Deep cycling No/Low maintenance Improvement Rechargeability & deep cycling Lead-Acid Battery Battery diagnostic system needs remote tracking on performance Other Key Component Battery Needs Better Cycling and Lower Maintenance 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13 Source: Transparency Market Research & Daramic Internal Analysis
14 Through The Lens Of A Supplier Lead-acid Battery Component Innovation is occurring in battery operating cycle, battery design and battery application. - What does this imply for the supply base? 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
15 Lead price ($) Evolution Of Lead Usage Lead Price Evolution 300%+ Cost efficiency is a major target in Automotive SLI, especially better utilization of the main component, lead, which price increased 300% in last 10 years Simultaneously, battery life/performance must be retained while reducing lead quantity Especially in the heavy duty applications Cast Expanded Metal Punched _ Better utilization of lead (Cost Efficiency) + Major Cost Component, Lead, Used More Efficiently 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15 Source: LEM Lead Price
16 Innovation Drivers From BOM Most of the Bill Of Materials (BOM) are commodities The Industry has focused on lead What does drive the future? Innovation drivers: separator, battery management system, additives 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Battery Bill of Materials/Performance Related Materials Others Acid Separators Bushings Hot-melt Battery Raw Materials Breakdown PP case/lid Lead Innovation Drivers Separator BMS Commodity Materials Acid Lead PP case BOM Categorization Additives (Carbon) Categorization of BOM Shows Innovation Opportunities 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16
17 BOM Innovation vs. Industry Needs Poly case Acid Pasting paper Lamination Industry Needs Partial State Of Charge Automotive Industrial X X Separator High Power Output X X Other chemical additives Longer Lifecycle X X Plate equipment Hot-melt Additives (Carbon) Dynamic Charge Acceptance X X Battery Management System No/low maintenance X Innovation Drivers can Impact the Requirement Demanded by Emerging Lead-acid Battery Applications 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 17
18 How Does A BOM Innovation Approach Industry Needs? From atomic scale(nm/fsec) to real life scale (m/sec) Time scale 10 0 (sec) 10-3 (msec) 10-6 (msec) 10-9 (nsec) Redox reactions Fluid dynamics, Finite element analysis Stress Strain Behavior of Materials Acid stratification Plate design and arrangement Mechanical properties of battery components (psec) (fsec) Charge transfer Separator Phase Engineering Electrochemistry on battery surfaces (nm) (um) (mm) (m) Length scale Physical/Chemical Phenomena over Wide Length/Time Scale Potential Improvements Represent Industry Opportunities 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 18
19 Molecular Dynamics Simulation 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 19
20 Summary After 100+ years as an energy storage technology, lead-acid is still attracting investment, adding capacity and focusing on innovation. Continuous investments and capacity expansion Significant innovation (patent) increases in last 10 years Some of the innovation is a response from the threat from other technologies (e.g. Li-ion) Some of the innovation comes from use models for lead-acid batteries Regardless of the history or the technological threats, lead acid industry is attractive and innovative In the past 10 years, the lead-acid industry has become pioneering with respect to innovation With new applications emerging and battery working pattern changes, batteries in both Automotive and Industrial evolved to higher usage frequencies and to supplying more power output under partial state of charge Lead-acid batteries are also required to discharge deeply 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 20
21 Summary (Cont d) Technical changes drive the battery performance improvement across applications moving forward Better dynamic charge acceptance Good capability in partial state of charge Longer lifecycle High power output From the supplier/bom viewpoint Lead utilization has been optimized Opportunities to meet emerging industry needs reside in the separator, battery management system and additives To guide supplier development, we think a fundamental approach focused on length scales and time scales in the battery will yield the most innovative component technology and a more robust and competitive lead-acid battery and lead-acid battery industry 2016 Daramic, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 21
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