East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting. Knoxville, Tennessee April 23, 2015
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1 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting Knoxville, Tennessee April 23, 2015
2 Agenda Introduction Winter Operations Maintenance Update LINK - Break - Pipeline Opportunities BD and Capacity Regulatory Matters Patti Fitzpatrick Vice President Marketing Mark MacPherson General Manager Capacity Mgmt. Jim Cymes Manager Capacity Scheduling Sean Zhang Analyst Commercial Business Bill Wickman Director Business Development George Snyder Director SE Marketing Q&A East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 2
3 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Winter Operations Mark MacPherson General Manager Capacity Management
4 Very Cold Market Area: Jan - Mar East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 4
5 EHDD Knoxville Daily Avg EHDD % % % -9.2% -4.5% 38.7% 34.3% -18.3% % -6.1% Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 5yr avg W13_14 W14_15 East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 5
6 East Tennessee Natural Gas Record Deliveries Winter ,000,000 Nov - Feb of Each Year 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000, East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 6
7 Dth East Tennessee Natural Gas High Deliveries Winter ,000,000 Nov - Mar of Each Year 120,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000, East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 7
8 MDth/d East Tennessee Natural Gas Top 25 Days _09 10_11 11_12 12_13 13_14 14_15 East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 8
9 Dth East Tennessee Natural Gas Load Demand vs EHDD 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , EHDD 1213 Winter 1314 Winter 1415 Winter Curve Fit (1213 Winter) Curve Fit (1314 Winter) Curve Fit (1415 Winter) East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 9
10 Dth East Tennessee Natural Gas Power Load Demand vs EHDD 300, , , , ,000 50, EHDD 1213 Winter 1314 Winter 1415 Winter Curve Fit (1213 Winter) Curve Fit (1314 Winter) Curve Fit (1415 Winter) East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 10
11 Dth East Tennessee Natural Gas Load Duration Nov - Mar 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 W14_15 W13_14 W12_13 W11_12 W10_11 800, , , , Days East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 11
12 Dth East Tennessee Natural Gas Power Load Duration Nov - Mar 300,000 W14_15 250,000 W13_14 W12_13 W11_12 200,000 W10_11 150, ,000 50, Days East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 12
13 Mdth East Tennessee Natural Gas Monthly Deliveries 35,000 30, % 25, % 20, % 0.4% -5.4% -0.3% 24.1% 20.5% 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Prev 5 Winter Avg Pwr W13_14 Pwr W14_15 Pwr East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 13
14 Mdth East Tennessee Natural Gas Monthly Deliveries 35,000 30, % 5.8% 25,000 20, % -5.4% -0.3% 20.5% -14.9% 24.1% -8.3% 13.0% 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Prev 5 Winter Avg Pwr W13_14 Pwr W14_15 Pwr East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 14
15 Mdth East Tennessee Natural Gas Monthly Deliveries 35,000 30, % 25,000 20,000 15, % 10% of Total 0.4% 17% of Total 13% of Total -5.4% 8% of -0.3% Total 3% of Total 12% of Total 5.8% 8% of Total 10% of Total 18% of Total 24.1% 20.5% 4% of 5% of Total Total 16% of Total 10,000 5,000 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Prev 5 Winter Avg Pwr W13_14 Pwr W14_15 Pwr Prev 5 Winter Avg Non Pwr W13_14 Non Pwr W14_15 Non Pwr East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 15
16 Mdth East Tennessee Natural Gas Monthly Deliveries 35,000 30, % 25,000 20,000 15, % 17% of 13% of 13.0% Total Total 10% of Total -5.4% 8% of -0.3% Total 3% of 12% of Total Total 5.8% 8% of Total 10% of Total 18% of Total 24.1% 20.5% 4% of 5% of Total Total 16% of Total -8.3% 8% of Total -14.9% 3% of Total 15% of Total 10,000 5,000 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Prev 5 Winter Avg Pwr W13_14 Pwr W14_15 Pwr Prev 5 Winter Avg Non Pwr W13_14 Non Pwr W14_15 Non Pwr East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 16
17 Mdth East Tennessee Natural Gas Monthly Power Load Deliveries 6,000 5,000 4, % 3, % 2, % 40.4% 121.8% 1, % 280.1% 436.6% 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Prev 5 Winter Avg Pwr W13_14 Pwr W14_15 Pwr East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 17
18 Mdth East Tennessee Natural Gas Monthly Power Load Deliveries 6,000 5,000 4, % 3, % 2, % 40.4% 121.8% 69.4% 280.1% 1, % 436.6% 271.6% 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Prev 5 Winter Avg Pwr W13_14 Pwr W14_15 Pwr East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 18
19 East Tennessee Natural Gas Supply Diversity (MDth/d) Operator Nov 10 - Mar11 Nov 11 - Mar 12 Nov 12 - Mar 13 Nov 13 - Mar 14 Nov 14 Mar 15 Jewell Ridge Nora Rogersville East of Topside Total Columbia Gulf Midwestern Morgan County AGL Resource Sonat Tennessee TETLP West of Topside Total East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 19
20 ETNG Restrictions Location W14-15 W13-14 W12-13 Seals/ Cuts Seals/ Cuts Seals/ Cuts Glade Spring 0/0 0/0 0/0 Tracy City 0/0 2/4 5/10 Ridgetop 0/0 0/0 5/22 Lobelville 1/0 2/8 5/55 Topside East 17/58 9/31 68/29 Topside South 0/0 1/16 3/28 Boyd s Creek 1/3 0/6 17/59 MAD Days East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 20
21 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, Maintenance Jim Cymes Manager, Capacity Scheduling
22 2015 Compressor Maintenance Fordtown Apr 30- May 5 Wartburg May 18- June 14 Flatwoods Sep 29- Oct 9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flatwoods May Glade Spring Sep 28- Oct 2 Fordtown Oct Nora Oct East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 22
23 2015 Pipeline Outages Station Date Outage Lobelville to Lewisburg Lenoir City Lateral Clarkrange to Topside May Aug 3-8 Aug 17-22, Aug 31-Sep 5 May 8-13 Aug TBD *Lobelville Station, M&R shut in *Capacity reduced to 166,000 *Hydrotest: Lenoir City, Loudon Co., M&R station shut in *Upstream supply restrictions, total restriction thru Wartburg Flatwoods to Fordtown September 1-11 *Capacity reduced to 90,000 from 107,000 Topside to Boyd s Creek September 1-11 *Hydrotest of two sections; total restriction thru Boyd s Creek, M&R Sevier Seymour and M&R KUB East shut in Bristol to Glade Springs September TBD Pipeline Maintenance 2 day outage *DOT Mandated East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 23
24 2015 Pipeline Pigging Pipeline Section Run Date Report Date *12 Ln Bristol to Glade to Rural Caliper: complete ILI: complete June 8 *20 Ln Lobeville to Lewisburg to Estill Springs *20 Ln Ooltewah to EOL Caliper: complete ILI: complete Caliper: September 15 ILI: September 17 June 15 October 22 *DOT Mandated East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 24
25 East Tennessee: Throughput Scheduling Priority Levels ETNG Primary Receipt to Primary Delivery for quantities within Entitlements** 1 Secondary in Path Receipt to Primary Delivery** 2 Secondary in Path to Secondary Delivery within Path** 2 Secondary out of Path, Quantity within Entitlements at Point of Restriction** Secondary out of Path, Quantity not within Entitlements at Point of Restriction 3A 3B **Assumes all entitlements along the path being present. East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 25
26 R E C E I P T East Tennessee: Point Scheduling D E L I V E R Y D E L I V E R Y Primary Delivery Secondary Within Path Secondary Out of Path Primary Delivery Secondary Within Path Secondary Out of Path Primary Receipt Secondary Within Path Secondary Out of Path = Highest Priority 3 = Lowest Priority East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 26
27 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 LINK Sean Zhang Senior Commercial Business Analyst
28 LINK on the Move Projects and Customer Enhancements since 2007 Year # of Major Commercial/Regulatory Projects Implemented # of Major Enhancements for Customers Examples of Projects Implemented related to ETNG ETNG Segmentation, Saltville LINK System, On-line retroactive adjustments, Early Grove / Virginia Gas LINK System, Linked Nominations, LINK Mobile, Auto-Renomination Bobcat Gas Storage, Excel Import, Confirmation Customization NAESB 2.0, LINK for Tablets Enhanced Imbalances ETNG Capacity Reservation East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 28
29 Increasing LINK System Usage and Complexity with Projects and Enhancements Attribute March 2006 Feb 2015 Percent Increase 2006 vs 2015 # of pipelines / storage facilities % Lines of code 2.2 MM 3.9 M 77% Average daily users % Average monthly users % # of subroutines 18,500 29,500 59% # of screens < >16% # of January nominations processed 789,500 2,210, % # of October capacity releases % East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 29
30 Quality Assurance Components introduced to Manage Growth Thorough testing within multiple testing environments Quality measures and error detection programming East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 30
31 Resulting Quality Control Improvements Annual Year-over-Year Quality Percentage Improvement for Customers Since % 39% 3% 31% Issues 49% 0% 38% East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 31
32 2015 LINK Changes for ETNG User Interface (UI) Conversion Ongoing quality control on our new external system pages Dual interface system existing legacy system version that has a combination of new and legacy screens Estimated to occur later this year ETNG Processes (Subject to FERC Approval) Implementation of proposed pooling using the SA rate schedule LMSMA Changes Final Automation of Retroactive Adjustments Allow group retroactive nomination adjustments Automated evaluation for a majority of retroactive adjustments East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 32
33 Questions? East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 33
34 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Business Development Bill Wickman Director, SE Business Development
35 Loudon Expansion Project Map Loudon Capacity Path Loudon Lateral 10.0 miles 12 looping Meter New Regulator Tate & Lyle New Meter Legend Yellow = Existing Pipeline Red = New Facilities East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 35
36 $1.20 Growth in the Cost of Expansion on ETNG Daily Demand Rate $1.00 $0.80 Kingsport $0.98 Loudon $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 Vintage $0.22 Rocky Top Gateway $0.32 $0.27 Murray $0.24 Patriot $0.32 NET $0.49 Wacker $0.59 $0.71 $ East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 36
37 ETNG Mainline Capacity Scenarios TE to Topside 100,000 dth/d $1.69 /dth Topside to Saltville 100,000 dth/d $1.90 /dth MVP to Saltville 20,000 dth/d $0.22 /dth (system rate) TE to Ooltewah 50,000 dth/d $2.36 /dth Nora to Topside 100,000 dth/d $0.85 /dth Transco to Nora 125,000 dth/d $0.60 /dth Note: Incremental rates are based on typical facility costs In 2015$. Transco to Topside 50,000 dth/d $1.29 /dth Note: The Jewell Ridge lateral is currently operating below its capacity. Up to 100 Mdth additional gas supply in West Virginia would not require additional Jewell Ridge facilities for delivery to the ETNG mainline East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 37
38 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Regulatory Matters George Snyder Director SE Marketing
39 Regulatory Activity Recent Orders Reservation Charge Credits Gas/Electric Coordination: Changes to NAESB Cycles Other Regulatory Items Cash Out Operational Flow Orders Proposed Tariff Changes Pooling Implementation LMSMA changes East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 39
40 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Recent FERC Orders
41 Reservation Charge Credit Filed: February 27, 2014 Effective: April 1, 2015 Requires pipeline to give reservation credits for restrictions to primary services caused by maintenance or repairs, including certain PHMSA mandated outages 10 day force majeure exception East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 41
42 FERC Ruling on Gas Day and Nomination/Confirmations Cycles NAESB Cycle Process Current Timeline NAESB NEW as of 4/1/16 Start of Gas Day 9:00 AM 9:00 AM Timely Cycle Nominations Due 11:30 AM 1:00 PM Confirmations Due 3:30 PM 4:30 PM Evening Cycle Nominations Due 6:00 PM 6:00 PM Confirmations Due 9:00 PM 8:30 PM Intraday 1 Cycle Nominations Due 10:00 AM 10:00 AM Confirmations Due 1:00 PM 12:30 PM Intraday 2 Cycle Nominations Due 5:00 PM 2:30 PM Confirmations Due 8:00 PM 5:00 PM Intraday 3 Cycle Nominations Due - 7:00 PM Confirmations Due - 9:30 PM East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 42
43 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Proposed East Tennessee Regulatory Items
44 Proposed Cash Out Changes Amend to current market indices ETNG Tariff references obsolete TGP indexes TGP has amended their cash out procedures and changed indices Simplifies the cash out mechanism Removes upstream transport & fuel component Creates a straight cash out formula New Indices: Weighted average of TGP and Transco Z5 indices based on percent of contracts sources from the west vs. the east. East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 44
45 Operational Flow Orders Current OFO penalties do not provide adequate incentive to stay balanced Daily Index prices exceeded OFO penalties throughout January and February Economically advantageous to accept OFO penalty rather than balance due to high market prices East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 45
46 Proposed OFO Changes Action Alert Changed from $0.98/Dth to Transco Z5 delivered High Common/Dth Balancing Alert: Match OFO penalties to market conditions Existing tariff penalty of $ Henry Hub Index/Dth has frequently been exceeded by other upstream pipe spot prices rendering OFO penalties the best offer in town Propose change in the penalty structure to be three times Transco Z5 delivered High Common price/dth OFOs imposed to manage imbalances on the system to maintain operational integrity East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 46
47 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Proposal to Adjust LMSMA
48 LMSMA Current Operational Impact Potential for circumventing restrictions Imbalances Scheduling Forces pipe to issue OFOs to manage operational integrity Drives structure of other services Segmentation Proposed pooling segments East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 48
49 LMSMA Current Service Offering Impact Current Segmentation Structure Nine Pipe Line Sections were created due to: Inability to determine actual paths since meter takes did not necessarily match confirmed volumes Inability to determine accurate Scheduling Priorities due to variability of actual takes Potential for multiplication of imbalances East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 49
50 Proposed Changes to LMSMA/PA Limit LMSMA to Owner/Operator Consistent with operational requirements for managing imbalances Aligns system usage with design Multiple operators under a single LMSMA (aka OBA) obscures scheduling priorities Allows for more accurate view of nomination priorities LMSMA/PA Operational Zones Meters within same LMSMA may not straddle common restriction points Prevents circumventing of posted points of restrictions East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 50
51 Proposed LMSMA Regions Ridgetop 3 Fordtown 5 Nora Lateral 7 Jewell Ridge Roanoke 1 Dixon Springs Topside Junction Saltville Storage 6 Lewisburg P 4 4 Patriot Extension 2 Lobelville Murray Lateral East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 51
52 EAST TENNESSEE NATURAL GAS SHIPPER MEETING APRIL 23, 2015 Proposal to Implement Pooling
53 Pooling ETNG has received a request to implement a pooling service Pooling service exists in the tariff under the Supply Aggregation Rate Schedule Seeking input as we develop this service East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 53
54 Supply Aggregation Proposed Pooling Implementation Proposed Pooling Service: Divide ETNG into four pools: 3100 Line to Topside Junction 3200 Line (including the Murray Lateral) to Topside Junction 3300 Line from Topside to the east (including Stone Mountain, Nora and Patriot Laterals) Jewell Ridge Lateral Proposed pooling areas subject to changes in LMSMA Service Allows aggregation of supply Allows Pool to Pool Transfers Transport to/from pool is secondary East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 54
55 Proposed Pool Placement (assumes changes to proposed LMSMA) P Ridgetop Nora Lateral P Jewell Ridge Roanoke Topside Patriot Extension P P Lobelville Murray Lateral East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 55
56 Pooling No cost to set up pool Transport used to deliver into/receive out of a pool Pools force balanced daily Pool-to-Pool transfers at no cost East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 56
57 Pooling Next Steps and Timing Requirements Customer input Regulatory filings to update and coordinate language across tariff Programming for the service in LINK Implementation TBD East Tennessee Natural Gas Shipper Meeting 57
58 Recognized by:
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