HTSM Roadmap Automotive

Transcription

1 HTSM Roadmap Automotive Societal and Economic Relevance The European Road Transport Research Advisory Council (ERTRAC) in its Strategic Research Agenda 2010 has set out several key ambitions, namely; the European road transport sector should be 50% more efficient by 2030, CO 2 emissions will reduce significantly (80% cars, 40% trucks) and new fuels will enter the market, and transport schedules (mobility) will be 50% more reliable and traffic safety will improve significantly. This roadmap will be prominent for European policy deployment and automotive research in the coming decade. Based on the vision of major stakeholders in the road transport sector, and in line with the ERTRAC ambition, the Dutch automotive sector has developed a strategy for the period This strategy will allow Dutch companies and knowledge institutes to excel in specific innovation areas. The strategy leverages the strength of the Dutch industry, potential synergy effects of the automotive ecosystem, and on specific issues in Dutch society (e.g. congestion). The strategy builds on the success of the HTAS innovation programme, where common goals, focus and a well-balanced interaction between the triple helix participants have been key success factors. The new strategy is to focus on two technology areas of innovation; Smart Mobility (intelligent vehicle on intelligent roads) and Future Powertrain (efficient vehicles), as defined by six programme lines. The R&D innovation is supported by an ecosystem with special attention to knowledge transfer and education, internationalization and business development. The innovation strategy of the automotive sector is expected to have a strong impact on the societal challenges in mobility, environment and safety. Mobility Mobility is a basic human need and a prerequisite for a strong economy. Congestion has become a major societal problem. The Smart Mobility Programme is aiming to bring new solutions for congestion reduction by using ICT, sensor and communication systems. Especially, cooperative driving and predictive traffic management will result in better traffic flow. Technology will help to improve and optimise use of the available road capacity. 1

2 Environment Sustainability will be the leading driver for R&D in the automotive industry for the near future. Since present technology (EURO VI) has almost eliminated hazardous emissions (NOx, PM), the focus of Future Powertrains is on the reduction of CO2 emissions to limit the climate change and dependency on fossil fuels. Further improvement of HD diesel engines, the further introduction of electric vehicles in combination with light constructions will significantly contribute to a better environment. Safety Traffic safety will continue to receive attention despite an impressive reduction of traffic fatalities during the last decade. The Smart Mobility programme offers new intelligent solutions in accidents avoidance. The programme will pay special attention to the safety of vulnerable road users aiming at significantly reducing traffic injuries. Economics The actual global automotive market represents a total turnover of about 800 billion Euro. The Dutch turnover looks just a small part of it: 17 billion Euro. Nevertheless, for the Netherlands the automotive sector is one of the dominant industries with potential: The innovation areas give the country a clear profile that has considerable economic impact in terms of value and employment. Up to 2020, the sector aims to achieve growth rates of more than 3.5% per year. The sector will thus significantly outperform the Dutch GDP. Extrapolating this growth to 2020, the automotive industry should contribute almost 24 billion Euros to the Dutch economy in combination with a growth in employment from 45,000 to 55,000 positions in

3 2. Application and Technology Challenges The Team The Dutch automotive sector consists of 300 companies, research institutes and educational institutes. In the Netherlands about 45,000 people are employed in the automotive sector (2010), roughly 10,000 of them are working for OEM s (DAF, VDL, NedCar), 4,000 are manufacturing special vehicles and trailers, 29,000 are employed at suppliers and about 2,000 are working in research and knowledge institutes, well embedded in the system thinking high tech Dutch industry. In this millennium, since 2000, the Dutch automotive sector has become organized as a coherently functioning triple helix ecosystem, where universities, TNO, government and industry are cooperating with a common focus: strengthening the Dutch automotive sector. The Dutch automotive sector can be described as an innovation team collaborating along all phases of innovation: Fundamental research in selected areas is concentrated at our excellent universities. In joint research programmes universities are collaborating intensively with industry. In development the industry is working with universities, HBO institutes, and TNO at bringing knowledge to application and products. TNO is a key partner in leveraging the valorisation of new knowledge and technology to novel applications. For many new innovations the market launch is a critical phase. The innovations of the Dutch automotive industry benefit and build on specific Dutch circumstances. The Netherlands as proving ground for new innovation and the Dutch government as launching customer will accelerate and secure market introduction and position the Netherlands as THE innovative country in mobility solutions. The focus on specific innovation areas and the collaboration throughout the development chain will accelerate innovation and strengthen the position of the industry in a very competitive world market. Large companies and SME s, including new startups, are focusing on markets generating turnover and employability and will mutually benefit from each other s skills. In addition, the innovation process of the Dutch automotive sector has been aligned completely with new and vital educational programmes at all levels. 3

4 The Challenge Drive for Value The Dutch automotive sector has made considerable progress in recent years in terms of organization and cooperation. At the same time the automotive landscape has seen drastic restructuring. There has been not only significant consolidation in the industry, but also massive shifts in market dynamics and competitive power. Furthermore, some of the innovation themes that were important in 2005 have moved to the background (example H2 applications), while others have gained market attraction (e.g. electric mobility). Market Trends (shift of value creation) The on-going shift of value creation from OEM to Tier will continue: the increasing complexity of the automobile products will lead to an increase of system development at Tier suppliers. Furthermore, market studies show that already in 2015 suppliers instead of OEM create more than 80% of the value. For the Dutch automotive industry this offers a tremendous challenge/chance/growth since it is an innovative (Tier 1&2) supplier industry. Technical Trends (shift to ICT and electronics) In the past few decades, a massive shift towards electronics and controls has entered the vehicle domain (electronic share in the averaged car increased from 22% in 2000 to 35% in 2010). ICT and software will be one of the key technologies in the vehicle of the future. This technology offers not only new solutions and applications for in car control systems, but also for car to car (V2V) and car to infrastructure (I2V) communication. There is a clear trend towards further vehicle electrification, in particular electric vehicle propulsion and electrification of vehicle functions. The Dutch industry is well positioned for the challenges in the field of (on board) electronic networks, electric vehicle charging and vehicle navigation and communication. Scientific Excellence and Trends The Dutch universities have a strong track record in the research fields relevant for the automotive sector. On a global scale our research is well-known in the fields of combustion processes, materials, electro-mechanics and power electronics, hybrid powertrains, new battery systems, mechatronics and control, vehicle dynamics, systems research, car2car communications, model driven software engineering, verification of software, traffic modelling and flow control. The groups participate in various STW and NWO programmes, and in EU projects. Moreover, the involved scientific research teams are well embedded within the high tech systems research areas and benefit from the mutual questions at system level (i.e. mechatronics, systems and control, ICT and embedded systems). This makes the Dutch universities well-positioned for the challenges in the focus areas of automotive as mentioned above. Societal Trends (Environment, Mobility and Safety) The importance of energy efficiency, air cleanliness and noise reduction is increasing against a background of growing populations, urbanization and climate change. As a result of the population growth and increasing vehicle ownership and mobility, a tremendous increase of vehicle mileage is expected placing significant strain on infrastructure. Intelligent traffic systems will offer integral system solutions towards road use efficiency, energy efficiency and road safety. 4

5 The Dutch industry will play a leading role in the transition towards smart mobility systems. The Netherlands will be the world s proving ground for the development and deployment of these systems. The quality of life for the Dutch population will directly benefit from these new innovations. Conclusion The trends in the worldwide automotive sector are very favourable for the Netherlands: the value creation in the automotive value chain is increasingly shifting to the suppliers. The Dutch automotive sector has an excellent reputation as high tech, innovative automotive supplier. The technology demand is increasingly matching with Dutch technological strengths, i.e. system thinking, electronics, mechatronics, navigation, sensor and actuator technology, control, ICT and material applications, etc. Finally, Dutch traffic conditions are an excellent driver for the development of the new mobility solutions the future urbanized world needs. Based on the organizational and technical strengths of the Dutch automotive sector, the results achieved by former innovation programme and the opportunities given by the actual trends in the automotive sector, the Dutch automotive sector will shift its focus from joining forces to driving for value. 5

6 3. Priorities and Programmes The technology roadmap for the automotive sector focuses on two areas: Future Powertrain and Smart Mobility. Each focus area contains three programme lines (themes) and every programme line again is built on three key technology areas. In a separate document (Innovation Programme for the Dutch Automotive Sector) every technology is described by a set of project domains with specific deliverables and investments, potential project team partners and a first timeline. The figure below is the main technology headline roadmap and it provides an overview of the main innovation activities of the Dutch automotive sector for the next years: Future Powertrain Sustainability will be a leading driver for R&D in the international automotive industry for the foreseeable future. Since hazardous powertrain emissions have largely been eliminated the focus today is on the reduction of CO2 emissions to limit climate change and on limiting the use of fossil fuels in line with the trend towards renewable materials in general. The Future Powertrain is a sustainable powertrain. The Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) will remain the dominant powertrain for years to come and hence a substantial R&D effort will be invested into making the current combustion engines more efficient by improving the combustion process and through downsizing. Special attention will be paid to advanced bio (waste-derived) fuels, fuel flexibility and control of advanced highly 6

7 efficient (>50% thermal) combustion concepts. A large potential remains in this technology, especially for heavy duty applications. A new and second major investment area is the electric powertrain. Electric Vehicle Technology (EVT) will fully hit the market in when all major OEMs will launch EV models. Electric propulsion will be a total breakthrough technology for vehicles, infrastructure and services. The first EVs are just entering the markets and an enormous potential for further improvement and innovation remains to be deployed. The future combustion engine car or truck and, even more so, the electric vehicle need to be highly energy efficient. ICT and software are cross cutting enablers for these innovations. This requires light constructions as well as new concepts and technology for auxiliary systems. Especially the area of light constructions with new materials fits the profile of the Dutch industry and hence builds a programme line for innovation and valorisation A third research area is integrated powertrain control. By combining energy and emission management, the synergy between engine, drivetrain and after treatment system is optimized. This helps to further reduce fuel consumption, and thus CO2 emissions. Smart Mobility The area Smart Mobility is focusing on ICT applications making vehicles more intelligent with the aim to realize safe, reliable and efficient traffic solutions. The theme Vehicle Dynamics Control (VDC) is the field of mechatronics and software for safety and driver support. Therefore, VDC is also the area of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and hence the enabling technology for the future of autonomous driving. The theme Connected Car is the connection of cars using wireless technology with other cars and/or infrastructure making new services in the car possible. Many technologies have been developed. There the priority towards 2020 is to develop applications and large scale implementations to improve traffic flow, CO2 reduction, safety and comfort. An additional challenge is to create compatibility and standardization through international cooperation on open platforms, testing and valorisation. The theme Traffic Management is focusing on efficient traffic control based on an integrated system of vehicles and infrastructure. Topics of investigation are both central and decentralized control systems. In the focus area of Smart Mobility many technologies are available, but to combine these technologies to robust and working systems for large scale applications is still a field to be explored. A major challenge is to fulfil the increasing demand of high quality software to facilitate these innovations. Proposed Implementation The implementation strategy can directly be derived from the figure innovation team. In the innovation process four phases can be recognized: Research, Development, Pilots/ Launching and Marketing. Every phase has a different character with different leading partners and also different resources. In addition to the cash and in-kind investments of the partners in every phase the following resources will play an important role: The R-phase will be mainly financially supported by NWO, the D-phase by TNO, the Pilot & Launch phase by governmental means and the Market approach by industrial investments. Of course, the innovation projects will also make use of regional and international funding in projects of common interest. So, depending on the character of the project, different project teams, different resources and financial structure are demanded, roughly following the main technology roadmap. 7

8 Collaboration in the Automotive Sector The automotive sector consists of about 300 organizations in the Netherlands. The majority of these organizations will participate from January 2012 in a new organization AutomotiveNL, merging and strengthening the cooperation between ATC (networking and knowledge transfer), HTAS (innovation programmes and projects) and the HTA Campus (facilities and education). Furthermore, many of the organizations of the Dutch automotive sector contributed to the roadmap process (>> 100). This will ensure that the sector continues to act as a closely cooperating triple helix ecosystem. During organizations have already submitted a Letter of Intent to express their intention for investment in the new innovation programme of the automotive sector; 19 x industry, 10 x SME, 7 x knowledge institutes and 3 x authorities, representing a total investment level of more than 50 million Euro s per year. The number of LOI s is still growing. The following figure gives an actual overview of the collaborating partners: Important for the realization of the roadmap is the potentially more active role of the government: the involvement the Ministries of EL&I (Economics) and Finance, and the Ministry of I&M (Traffic). The latter intends to participate as a partner in the realization of the automotive roadmap. This cooperation on societal issues (mobility, environment and safety) can vary from interest to facilitator to partnership to even launching customer. Cross (Top) Sector Cooperation The automotive sector can profit from generic research developments inside and also outside the HTSM top sector. Therefore, an intensive cooperation with several technology partners has been part of HTAS and will be extended into the new programme as well. The table shows an overview of other TKI s for collaboration within the HTSM sector. Per programme line the TKI partners have been identified, but, in some cases, also cross-(top) sector cooperation makes sense outside the HTSM top sector. In particular, the top sectors 8

9 Energy (EVT and TRM), Logistics (EVT, CC and TRM) and Chemistry (LC) offer good opportunities for cooperation. International Cooperation The main market for the Dutch automotive sector is dominated by Europe and the BRIC countries. Cooperation in innovation with partners from these areas is therefore a logical strategic choice for the Dutch automotive sector. The branch organisation AutomotiveNL made the choice to cooperate mainly with top technology partners in NW Europe varying from OEM, Tiers, and knowledge institutes. Successful collaboration is not only a matter of technology, but also of communication, culture, and distance. AutomotiveNL has collaboration agreements with cluster organizations such as SAFER in Gotheborg, MOVEO in Paris and NoAE in Munich. Furthermore, the automotive sector participates in European Programmes as FP7, Eureka, Eurostars and Interreg. SME Activities Due to limited financial means for SME s, an additional programme will be needed especially for this category of companies. In cooperation with Syntens, AutomotiveNL will support SME s with several additional activities, like workshops per programme line (in total 6 in 2013) with focus on project team and/ or consortia building. In this way AutomotiveNL is aiming to bundle the innovation forces of SME s around the topics of the programme lines into Theme- Clusters. Furthermore AutomotiveNL will offer individual management support for incubators with the aim to lower the extremely high entrance barriers in the automotive sector for new entrepreneurial initiatives. Finally, advice and support for SME s is required with respect to project finances ((inter)national funding and subordinated loans). In 2012 AutomotiveNL signed a Green Deal to support automotive SME s for setting up projects in the field of E Mobility. Other Innovation Instruments Except the TKI arrangements and the European framework programmes, the automotive sector will use regional funding (especially Helmond and the province of Noord-Brabant). On the national scale the sector will take advantage of national programmes like Beter benutten and Innovative Purchasing, using public finances for strategic Smart Mobility projects. On the international level it seems to be that the Eurostars and the Interreg programmes offers opportunities for SME companies. 9

10 3.1 TKI Programmes In 2013 the TKI arrangement will start which will be an essential part of the Topsectoren - policy. In the following section, an overview is described about potential projects to start in 2013 within the framework of the TKI approach, with cooperation between industry and knowledge institutes. For the automotive sector mainly the 3TU, TNO and NLR organizations will be representing the knowledge institutes. Internal Combustion Engine Programme (ICE) The development of truck (and bus) powertrain systems is facing significant challenges: Reducing fuel consumption without compromising emissions. Improving real world compliance of fuel economy and emissions (over varying drive cycles and environmental conditions). Further fit for purpose demands lead to a wider differentiation in applications between vehicles i.e. vehicles for urban distribution versus long haul transport. Solutions for these challenges will have to be realized under conditions as reducing cost, legal compliance and competitive advantage activities: Projects within the ICE programme line will further build on the HTAS efficient powertrain programme and will include: Development and validation of Waste Heat Recovery WHR) and minimal EGR concept for Euro VI engines. Feasibility is proven in the HTAS Fervent project. Integral Powertrain Control will enable robust control integration of WHR and minimal EGR with further improving fuel economy and EURO VI compliance. Potential fuel saving by the application of e-horizon and smart cruise control In the area of future combustion research, exploring research in new dual fuel (combination diesel and gas) combustion concepts will be kicked off. Further experimental research in (EURO VI) engine efficiency optimization will continue. Electric Vehicle Technology Programme (EVT) The powertrain electrification of heavy duty vehicles (trucks and busses) will continue over the next few decades. Further differentiation in vehicle application will continue: in urban distribution and public transport high levels of hybridization or even full electric propulsion will enter the market. For long haul transport mild hybrid solutions will be developed. For all applications optimal powertrain topology, (predictive) energy management and electrification of auxiliary equipment are subject of further research. Important enabling technologies like efficient battery management and charging technology will be addressed activities: The EVT programme line will further build on the HTAS Electric Vehicle Technology programme and will include: Heavy Duty e-powertrain modelling: to support the demand of further differentiation in vehicle applications and requirements a flexible environment for modelling powertrain performance and total cost of ownership is required. 10

11 Energy management modelling and control (EM M&C): development of a (predictive) model based energy management (incl. emission management for hybrids) with a high level of modularity to support different vehicle configurations, platforms and drive cycles. Thermal management: optimal control for thermal energy distribution between propulsion, auxiliary equipment and climate control. On-chip Battery management: integration BMS on chip level. Functional Safety: system architecture to secure functional safety of the electric system in the basic design of the electric and control system Electrification of auxiliaries: concept study into optimal concepts for an e-bus. Light Constructions Programme (LC) Together with the development of increasingly more efficient powertrains the application of strong and light constructions becomes also a very important issue. However, it is not only the reduction of weight which is important. The application of highly efficient powertrains leads also to new requirements for thermal and acoustical isolation of vehicles enhancing the comfort of the passengers. At the same time the application of new materials and powertrain concepts offer new opportunities for alternative designs and vehicle concepts. Therefore, the targets for new vehicle constructions are multidimensional. The combination of low weight, thermal and acoustical isolation of vehicles in combination with new mobility concepts is the main challenge (and opportunity) to face. Sub-Projects in 2013: In 2013 the LC programme line will mainly focus on the application of composites: Fibre materials, thermo plastics and hardeners, production processes and adhesive technologies. A set of sub projects are combined in an integral project with the name Bus of the Future. This project is a carrier for several sub projects starting in 2013: Knowledge development (new materials and constructions, vibro-acoustical design tools, aerodynamics, and climate management). Production technologies and concept development (new processes, adhesive technologies for composite products, influences on design, automation). Prototyping (bus floor, rear axle, body,., integrated in a complete bus). Testing programme (from measurements at subassemblies to integral road tests). Connected Car Programme (CC) The technologies within the connected car domain are mainly ICT related and to a large extent available for commercial application. The major challenge for this programme line is the smart and efficient integration of all the technological enablers into usable, scalable and affordable systems. The projects within the CC programme line in 2013 will build upon the results of the former HTAS innovation programme SPITSlive is a programme within CC that will bring the results from the former SPITS project towards a large scale deployment phase. The established architecture and technologies for mobility services will be enhanced and tested in large scale pilots to enable high volume roll out in the near future. Urban CCC is the follow up project from 11

12 the CCC project in the HTAS programme; It will extend the technologies for cooperative driving towards urban environments. This involves new challenges in the area of lane detection and intersection management. Dynamax in Car has the goal to bring the actual and dynamically varying speed limits in the in-car environment. Cooperative module for Road Side Units: preliminary development in the area of system architecture, wireless data transmission and interoperability. MKB Cluster cooperative driving: developing valorisation opportunities for SME s. Traffic Management Programme (TRM) The rapid developments in ICT enable new innovation opportunities in the area of traffic management. Traffic information can be delivered to vehicles instantaneously and on an individual level for personalized travel advice. Traffic will become a network system with more predictability and targeted, local measures. An important challenge will be the integration of centralized traffic management (government controlled) and de-central, car centric traffic management. Next to technological developments this requires experimenting with new publicprivate partnerships. The 2013 TRM programme includes several developments in the area of integrated traffic management as well as first steps towards the realization of an extensive, large scale corridor/test area to test these technologies under real live conditions. CURA: enabling a faster application development for cooperative services through independence from changing standards and protocols. DVM for air quality: The development of a method to use dynamic traffic management to optimise air quality. Personal Traffic advice linked with Traffic Management (with a link to Electrical Vehicles). Green Corridor is the programme in which various technologies will be developed for more efficient and environmentally friendly transport on the trajectory 2 e Maasvlakte- Venlo. The ICT infrastructure will form an extension on the current DITCM facilities. Vehicle Dynamics Control Programme (VDC) To further improve traffic and vehicle safety the introduction of collision avoidance and collision mitigation system is picking up. These systems demand high controllability of vehicle dynamics in extreme (safety critical) driving manoeuvres. Secure (automatic) lane change, emergency stop and evasive manoeuvres also require good support of the driver during and after these manoeuvres. For trucks and bussed the effect of high centre of gravity, moving pay load, long segmented vehicle architectures and vulnerable road user safety are important subjects for further research. In this programme line integrated solutions for complex safety critical scenarios and conditions will be developed. The potential of vehicle connectivity for safety will be investigated. 12

13 2013 activities: The VDC programme line will further build on the HTAS Vehicle Dynamics Control programme and will include: Lateral truck driver support: development of a driver support system for lateral manoeuvres. The system can be a haptic support system or a warning system for free lateral moving space and blind-spot monitoring. Autonomous lateral vehicle support: automatic lateral movement, trajectory prediction and control and vehicle stability control. Active vehicle/cabin suspension: continuation of HTAS verified project with respect to improving vehicle/cabin dynamic control and comfort. 13

14 3.2 European Programmes FP7 In 2013 and early 2013 the last FP7 calls will close. Dutch knowledge institutes and industry together will participate in proposals on the following subjects. Transport call 2013: Configurable and adaptable truck (DAF, TNO) High efficiency energy conversion for future heavy duty transport (DAF, TNO) Demonstration of electric buses as urban public transport (VDL, TNO) Feasibility analyses and technological development of on-road charging for longterm electric vehicle range extension (EMOSS, TomTom, TNO) Advanced digital human body models and virtual testing (TNO) ICT call 2013: Electro-Mobility, b) Comprehensive Energy Management (NXP, Athlon Car lease, Vialis) Co-operative mobility: a) Supervised automated driving (TNO, NXP) Co-operative mobility: b) Integrated personal mobility for smart cities Robotics, Cognitive Systems & Smart Spaces, Symbiotic Interaction (Thales, TNO) Energy call 2013: Linking & Interoperability grids and EV (KEMA, Athlon Car lease, Vialis, TNO) These projects (if accepted) will fill in an important part of the automotive roadmap. Horizon 2020: For the coming Horizon 2020 programme a number of institutions are working on road mapping and positioning subjects important for Dutch industry. Dutch partners are actively involved in the following European bodies: ERTAC (DAF, TNO, TU s), EARTO (TNO), EUCAR (DAF), EARPA (TNO, TU/e), ERTICO (TNO, Technolution, TomTom, NXP, PEEK, Vialis). The main topics for European research are: Smart mobility and the increasing interest of ITS for traffic flow, GHG reduction and traffic safety Electrification of vehicle propulsion and future energy carriers for transportation Increasing interest of ICT for a networked transportation system and vehicle control New themes like urban mobility and mobility for an ageing community Other European initiatives INTERREG is a European Commission initiative financed by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund). The aim of this programme is to strengthen economic and social cohesion in the European Union through cross-border, transnational and interregional cooperation. Especially for SME's the GCS Cross border cluster stimulation programme offers opportunities for financial support in collaborations across the borders of The Netherlands, Germany and Belgium. 14

15 4. Partners & Process The process to arrive at the common roadmap as presented in this document has started early 2011 with preliminary analysis and proposals from experts, each of the experts covering a specific programme line. Together with representatives from knowledge institutes and industry core teams were established for each programme line to develop the proposals to such a level that dissemination and feedback workshops on a broader scale could be organized. This resulted in adapted and more detailed roadmaps and also the first actual project proposals were submitted. Next to the partners from the former HTAS programme also new industrial partners were involved during this phase. Finally a TKI Automotive steering group has been established to integrate and consolidate the results and to support the high level coordination with government representatives, existing scientific programmes and other TKI roadmap teams. The TKI Automotive roadmap process 15

16 5. Investments Roadmap programme Industry TNO NLR NWO Universities EC EL&I Other institutes Other government Grand total TKI programme Industry, cash *) **) Industry, in-kind TNO NLR NWO **) Universities **) Other institutes Other government TKI grant TKI total European programme Industry TNO NLR FOM Universities Other EU total, projects EC EL&I Other EU total, grants