Offshore Wind and security of power supply - Energy economic analysis of risk and threat scenarios -

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1 Public funding by Programme: Research for Civil Security Maritime Security Offshore Wind Energy Safety and Security Offshore Wind and security of power supply - Energy economic analysis of risk and threat scenarios - Windforce May 2017, Bremerhaven Dr. Karin Jahn, Dr. Jürgen Gabriel, Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Technology and Advanced Materials IFAM, Bremen / Germany

2 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Fraunhofer IFAM Founded in institutes 24,500 employees R&D volume 2.1 billion Euro Founded in 1968, Fraunhofer institute since 1974 Bremen + Locations in Dresden, Oldenburg, Stade and Wolfsburg 609 employees total budget in Mio. Euro Fraunhofer 2

3 The OWISS-Project Offshore Wind Energy Safety and Security 2020 Research Programme for Civil Security Maritime Security Funding by Federal Ministry of Education and Research Project Aims Prevent / minimise disturbances in the operation of offshore wind farm (OWF) Protect the population from serious disturbances in the supply of electricity due to disturbances in the operation of OWF Affiliated partners University of Applied Sciences, Bremerhaven + Fraunhofer IFAM, Department of Energy System Analysis, Bremen German Offshore Consult GmbH, Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), Bremerhaven Institute for the Law of the Sea and International Marine Environmental Law (ISRIM), Bremen.plus associated partners from the industry and security authorities Project duration: For more Information: Source: DOC 3

4 Offshore Wind Energy Categories of Risks Categories of risks with regard to the security of power supply Lack of electricity production during periods without wind Volatility of electricity production Longer technical downtimes (compared to similar onshore events) Special offshore threats to safety and security Extreme weather conditions Unusually high waves Lack of shelter Insufficient protection against (terrorist) attacks Geographical concentration of central components of the offshore wind energy supply system (OWESS) 4

5 Our power supply system when is it at risk? Electricity grid balancing of production and demand reqiured in every second Lack of up to 3 GW can be compensated in the EU transmisson network within 30 seconds (3 GW = 2 large nuclear power plants) Lack of up to 6 GW can be compensated in the EU transmisson network within 5 minutes Power supply Power balance = 50 Hz Power demand Source: 10/stromangebot-nachfrage_waage.jpg Installed power in the German OWESS 2020 (planned) All OWF in the German North Sea = maximum 5,700 MW = 5.7 GW All OWF in the German Baltic Sea = maximum 800 MW = 0.8 GW 5

6 HVDC offshore wind farm grid connection Turbines generate mediumvoltage AC power Transformation to higher AC power at substation platform Conversion of AC power to CD power at HVDC platform Transport of DC Power onto land via sea cable Conversion of DC power to high voltage AC power and feeding into the onshore-grid Source: north-sea-learning-curve /featurenavigating-the-north-sea-learning-curve html 6

7 Offshore Wind Energy System critical elements Geographical concentration as special risk in 2020 Concentration of typical elements in the German North Sea Typical elements of the OWESS Maximum power of a single element Maximum power in the case of geographical concentration Wind turbine 5 MW 400 MW (wind park) Substation platform (Offshore) Submarine cable HVDC converter platform (Offshore) HVDC converter station (Onshore) Land cable 400 MW No concentration known 900 MW 900 MW 900 MW 900 MW Minimum distance of 100 m in the case of parallel cables So called parent/subsidiary arrangement with 1,800 MW Location with 3 elements (2,130 MW) realized, with 3 elements (2,700 MW) planned Cases of parallel arrangement of several submarine or land cables up to 3,000 MW realized 7

8 Assessment scheme for the failure of power supply Two criteria Speed of drop of feed in of electricity Maximum loss of power Time span (t) between the occurence of the start event and the drop of the feed in of electricity to 0 MW t 30 sec. 30 sec. < t 300 sec. t > 300 sec. l < l 1,000 l > 1,000 Maximum loss (l) of power (MW) Evaluation of failure of power supply small medium large Source: Fraunhofer IFAM 8

9 Structure of Scenarios 9

10 Our power supply system when is it at risk? Examples for dangerous incidents Incident Explosion Short circuit Fire Lightning strike with component failure or short circuit Strong winds Oil release followed by a fire or by an explosion Expected speed of drop of power very quick very quick very quick (under appropriate conditions) very quick undefined; possibly foreseeable assumption: very quick slow reason: the formation of an ignitable fuel-air mixture takes some time 10

11 Analysis of Safety Szenarios Results 11

12 Analysis of Security Szenarios Results 12

13 From initial incidents to effects on public power supply 13

14 Summary Offshore wind energy presents only a low risk to the security of electricity supply. The EU transmission network is able to cope with the failure of any single OWESS element. Geographical concentration of identical elements of OWESS is a risk, when an event effects a group of adjacent elements simultaneously. converter submarine land converter platforms cables cables stations Some start events can provoke a very quick drop in power and are high risk for the security of supply. fire explosion short-circuit failure of sensitive components 14

15 Authors Your questions are welcome! subsequently or later via to: Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Technology and Advanced Materials IFAM Wiener Straße Bremen 0421/