Market Outlook. Dealer s Diary. News & Result Analysis. Markets Today. Net Inflows (September 08, 2015) FII Derivatives (September 09, 2015)

Transcription

1 Dealer s Diary Indian markets are expected to open on a negative note tracking the SGX Nifty and global markets. After initially registering sharp rise, the US market pulled back and ended in the negative zone as traders were unwilling to partake in buying owing to lack of major economic data release. The European markets ended Wednesday s session in the green with markets feeding off on strong rally in the Asian markets. The markets reversed from their respective intraday highs after UK s industrial production dropped 0.4% in July. The Indian markets rose strongly on Wednesday, mainly on the back of positive movement across global markets. The surge in world stock markets amid signs of stability in China spurred gains in rupee for the second consecutive session News & Result Analysis Cabinet clears gold bond, monetisation schemes Refer detailed news analysis on the following page Markets Today The trend deciding level for the day is 25,698 / 7,810 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 25,842 25,965 / 7,855 7,891 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 25,698 / 7,810 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct towards 25,575 25,431 / 7,773 7,728 levels Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 SENSEX 25,431 25,575 25,698 25,842 25,965 NIFTY 7,728 7,773 7,810 7,855 7,891 Net Inflows (September 08, 2015) ` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD FII 2,970 3,604 (635) (5,096) 118,664 MFs 1, ,149 73,797 FII Derivatives (September 09, 2015) ` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest Index Futures 3,630 3, ,528 Stock Futures 3,370 2,354 1,016 45,667 Domestic Indices Chg (Pts) (Close) BSE Sensex ,720 Nifty ,819 MID CAP ,434 SMALL CAP ,675 BSE HC ,902 BSE PSU ,648 BANKEX ,019 AUTO ,576 METAL ,366 OIL & GAS ,663 BSE IT ,062 Global Indices Chg (Pts) (Close) Dow Jones (1.4) (239) 16,254 NASDAQ (1.2) (55) 4,757 FTSE ,229 Nikkei 7.7 1,343 18,771 Hang Sang ,131 Straits Times ,928 Shanghai Com ,243 Indian ADR Chg (Pts) (Close) INFY (1.0) (0.2) $17.3 WIT (2.4) (0.3) $11.5 IBN (0.4) (0.0) $8.4 HDB (0.0) (0.0) $56.9 Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances 1,982 1,245 Declines Unchanged Volumes (` cr) BSE 2,953 NSE 17,185 Gainers / Losers Gainer Loser Company Price (`) chg Company Price (`) chg GITANJALI SUNASIAN 156 (5.0) MARUTI PMCFIN 2 (4.9) AMTEKAUTO MANAPPURAM 21 (4.1) MCLEODRUSS TORNTPHARM 1,490 (3.4) NMDC DBCORP 302 (3.3)

2 Cabinet clears gold bond, monetisation schemes The Cabinet approved Gold Bond and Gold Monetisation schemes to reduce the metal's demand in physical form and fish out idle gold lying with households and other entities. The Gold Bond scheme will have an annual cap of 500 grams per person and such bonds would be issued for a period of 5-7 years. People holding idle gold can deposit it in banks for either short, medium or long term. This would result in idle gold moving into the system for more effective use and could reduce imports. Economic and Political News Govt clears deck for spectrum trading Cabinet clears gold bond, monetization schemes Fragile PSBs to merge with strong peers if worries persist: FM Corporate News TVS Motor and Sundaram Clayton together to invest `800 cr Adani, HCL, MRF, ITC and others commit over `30,000 cr in Tamil Nadu RINL's sales volume, exports grow in August

3 Top Picks Large Cap Company Sector Market Cap (` Cr) Rating CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Aurobindo Pharma 41,797 Buy Axis Bank Financials 1,15,498 Buy ICICI Bank Financials 1,53,506 Buy Infosys IT 2,50,022 Buy 1,089 1, Inox Wind Capital Goods 8,707 Buy LIC HFL Financials 21,607 Buy Power Grid Power 65,918 Buy TCS IT 4,99,603 Buy 2,551 3, Tech Mahindra IT 51,221 Buy Yes Bank Financials 29,940 Buy Sun Pharma Pharma 2,02,141 Accumulate Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg Mid Cap Company Sector Market Cap (` Cr) Rating CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Bajaj Electricals Others 2,473 Buy Garware Wall Ropes Others 613 Buy JK Tyre Auto Ancillary 2,335 Buy MBL Infrastructures Construction 1,011 Buy Minda Industries Auto Ancillary 806 Buy MT Educare Others 500 Buy Radico Khaitan Others 1,163 Buy Surya Roshni Others 513 Buy Tree House Others 1,629 Buy Source: Angel Research, Bloomberg

4 Global economic events release calendar Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data Last Reported Estimated 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Sep September 11, 2015 India Imports YoY% % Change Aug (10.28) -- India Exports YoY% % Change Aug (10.30) -- 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Aug :30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Sep September 11, :30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Jul September 13, :00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Aug September 14, :00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Aug (4.05) (4.40) September 15, :45PM US Industrial Production % Aug 0.56 (0.20) 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Aug September 16, :00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Aug (4.90) -- 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Aug F :00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Aug September 17, :00PM US Building permits Thousands Aug 1, , :00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Aug 1, , :30PM US FOMC rate decision % Sep September 21, :30PM US Existing home sales Million Aug September 22, :30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Sep A (6.90) -- September 23, :00PM Germany PMI Services Value Sep P :00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Sep P September 24, :30PM US New home sales Thousands Aug September 25, :00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q T September 29, :30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Sep :00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Sep :00AM India RBI Repo rate % Sep :00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Sep September 30, :25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Sep (7.00) -- 2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q F October 1, :30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Sep :00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Sep October 2, :00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Sep :00PM US Unnemployment rate % Sep :00PM US Unnemployment rate % Sep Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

5 h Macro watch Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends Exhibit 2: IIP trends QFY QFY QFY QFY QFY QFY QFY14 1QFY QFY QFY QFY QFY (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) 0.5 Aug Sep-14 (2.7) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-15 Source: CSO, Angel Research Source: MOSPI, Angel Research Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI 56.0 Mfg. PMI Services PMI Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar Apr-15 May Jun Jul Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Source: MOSPI, Angel Research Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends Exhibit 6: Key policy rates 30.0 Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth 9.00 Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (10.0) 5.00 (20.0) 4.00 (30.0) 3.00 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: RBI, Angel Research

6 h Global watch Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries (2.6) (4.6) (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries (1.0) (3.8) (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: IMF, Angel Research Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries (x) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Indonesi a Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

7 h Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe Returns Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR Brazil Bovespa 46,657 (4.0) (11.7) (23.3) Russia Micex 1, India Nifty 7,819 (8.3) (1.8) (3.6) China Shanghai Composite 3,243 (14.6) (37.5) 44.2 South Africa Top 40 44,249 (4.7) (2.5) (4.2) Mexico Mexbol 42,755 (5.7) (4.2) (6.9) Indonesia LQ (10.9) (18.4) (18.7) Malaysia KLCI 1,603 (4.7) (7.3) (14.2) Thailand SET (2.7) (8.4) (12.9) USA Dow Jones 16,254 (6.4) (8.5) (4.8) UK FTSE 6,229 (7.3) (8.8) (8.4) Japan Nikkei 18,771 (9.8) (6.4) 21.3 Germany DAX 10,303 (11.2) (9.1) 6.1 France CAC 4,665 (10.2) (6.2) 5.3 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

8 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Agri / Agri Chemical Rallis Neutral 209-4,060 2,075 2, United Phosphorus Neutral ,285 13,698 15, Auto & Auto Ancillary Ashok Leyland Accumulate ,887 18,186 21, Bajaj Auto Accumulate 2,269 2,438 65,659 23,544 27, Eicher Motors Buy 17,967 22,859 48,768 11,681 15, Hero Motocorp Accumulate 2,348 2,672 46,882 28,500 32, L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral ,254 1, Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 1,171 1,383 72,711 38,337 43, Maruti Accumulate 4,300 4, ,882 58,102 68, Minda Industries Buy ,567 2, Rane Brake Lining Buy Setco Automotive Neutral Tata Motors Accumulate , , , TVS Motor Neutral ,732 11,702 13, Amara Raja Batteries Neutral ,195 5,101 6, Exide Industries Accumulate ,716 7,363 8, Apollo Tyres Neutral 178-9,078 12,576 12, Ceat Neutral 1,139-4,607 6,041 6, JK Tyres Buy ,335 7,446 7, Swaraj Engines Accumulate , Subros Neutral ,268 1, Indag Rubber Neutral Capital Goods ACE Neutral BEML Neutral 1,225-5,102 3,277 4, BGR Energy Neutral ,615 3, BHEL Neutral ,097 33,722 35, Blue Star Accumulate ,105 3,649 4, Crompton Greaves Buy ,407 13,484 14, Inox Wind Buy ,707 4,980 5,

9 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Capital Goods KEC International Neutral 139-3,580 8,791 9, Thermax Neutral ,018 6,413 7, Cement ACC Accumulate 1,382 1,548 25,947 11,856 14, Ambuja Cements Accumulate ,993 10,569 12, India Cements Buy ,198 4,716 5, JK Cement Buy ,389 4,056 4, J K Lakshmi Cement Buy ,290 2,947 3, Mangalam Cements Neutral ,053 1, Orient Cement Accumulate ,417 1,854 2, Ramco Cements Accumulate ,914 4,036 4, Shree Cement^ Neutral 10,620-36,997 7,150 8, UltraTech Cement Accumulate 2,983 3,282 81,866 27,562 31, Construction ITNL Neutral 92-2,276 7,360 8, KNR Constructions Neutral 525-1, , Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,592 2, ,203 68,920 82, Gujarat Pipavav Port Neutral 182-8, MBL Infrastructures Buy ,011 2,313 2, Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 63-3,511 7,892 8, PNC Infratech Neutral 480-2,464 1,798 2, Simplex Infra Neutral 271-1,341 6,241 7, Financials Allahabad Bank Neutral 77-4,417 8,438 9, Axis Bank Buy ,498 26,941 32, Bank of Baroda Neutral ,906 19,027 21, Bank of India Neutral 135-8,996 16,438 18, Canara Bank Neutral ,660 15,491 17, Dena Bank Neutral 40-2,267 3,498 3, Federal Bank Neutral 60-10,241 3,527 4, HDFC Neutral 1, ,045 10,883 12, HDFC Bank Buy 1,016 1, ,620 38,059 46,

10 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Financials ICICI Bank Buy ,506 35,810 41, IDBI Bank Neutral 56-9,046 9,860 10, Indian Bank Neutral 128-6,124 6,267 7, LIC Housing Finance Buy ,607 2,934 3, Oriental Bank Neutral 127-3,816 7,730 8, Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral ,092 23,446 26, South Ind.Bank Neutral 21-2,835 1,930 2, St Bk of India Buy ,196 83,847 96, Union Bank Neutral ,824 12,755 14, Vijaya Bank Neutral 36-3,054 3,594 3, Yes Bank Buy ,940 7,204 9, FMCG Asian Paints Neutral ,707 16,553 19, Britannia Neutral 2,880-34,558 8,065 9, Colgate Accumulate 1,836 2,022 24,974 4,836 5, Dabur India Neutral ,330 9,370 10, GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,924-24,915 4,919 5, Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,165-39,655 10,168 12, HUL Neutral ,790 34,940 38, ITC Buy ,096 41,068 45, Marico Neutral ,458 6,551 7, Nestle* Accumulate 5,969 6,646 57,555 11,291 12, Tata Global Buy ,798 8,635 9, IT HCL Tech^ Buy 944 1, ,709 42,038 47, Infosys Buy 1,089 1, ,022 60,250 66, TCS Buy 2,551 3, , , , Tech Mahindra Buy ,221 25,566 28, Wipro Buy ,549 52,414 58, Media D B Corp Buy ,554 2,241 2, HT Media Neutral 77-1,793 2,495 2,

11 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) Media ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Jagran Prakashan Buy ,307 1,939 2, Sun TV Network Neutral ,640 2,779 3, Hindustan Media Ventures Buy , , Metals & Mining Coal India Buy ,967 72,015 78, Hind. Zinc Neutral ,021 15,258 16, Hindalco Neutral 79-16, , , JSW Steel Neutral ,726 48,125 53, NMDC Neutral ,332 8,237 10, SAIL Neutral 54-22,364 45,915 53, Vedanta Neutral ,617 71,445 81, Tata Steel Neutral , , , Oil & Gas Cairn India Neutral ,067 11,323 12, GAIL Neutral ,281 64,856 70, ONGC Neutral , , , Petronet LNG Buy ,478 39,007 40, Indian Oil Corp Accumulate , , , Reliance Industries Accumulate , , , Pharmaceuticals Stock Watch Alembic Pharma Neutral ,792 2,601 3, Aurobindo Pharma Buy ,797 14,923 17, Aventis* Neutral 3,989-9,186 2,156 2, Cadila Healthcare Neutral 1,796-36,769 10,224 11, Cipla Neutral ,788 14,359 16, Dr Reddy's Neutral 4,038-68,843 17,903 20, Dishman Pharma Accumulate ,072 1,716 1, GSK Pharma* Neutral 3,316-28,088 2,870 3, Indoco Remedies Neutral 336-3,094 1,088 1, Ipca labs Accumulate ,331 3,507 4, Lupin Neutral 1,835-82,586 14,864 17, Sun Pharma Accumulate ,141 28,163 32,

12 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) Power ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Tata Power Neutral 59-16,011 35,923 37, NTPC Buy ,646 87,064 98, Power Grid Buy ,918 20,702 23, Telecom Bharti Airtel Neutral , , , Idea Cellular Neutral ,702 34,282 36, zothers Stock Watch Abbott India Neutral 5,374-11,419 2,715 3, Bajaj Electricals Buy ,473 4,719 5, Finolex Cables Neutral 244-3,726 2,728 3, Goodyear India* Buy ,197 1,953 1, Hitachi Neutral 1,320-3,588 1,806 2, Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 310-5,616 1,620 1, MRF Accumulate 39,493 43,575 16,749 20,727 14, , , Page Industries Neutral 13,576-15,142 1,929 2, Relaxo Footwears Neutral 493-5,919 1,767 2, Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 1,001 1, ,653 1, Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 743-1,307 1,271 1, Tree House Buy , TVS Srichakra Buy 2,487 3,210 1,904 2,127 2, HSIL Buy ,766 2,085 2, Kirloskar Engines India Ltd Accumulate ,048 2,634 3, M M Forgings Buy Banco Products (India) Neutral ,208 1, Competent Automobiles Neutral ,007 1, Nilkamal Accumulate 877 1,005 1,309 1,948 2, Visaka Industries Buy ,158 1, Transport Corporation of Buy ,792 2,830 3, India Elecon Engineering Buy ,452 1, Surya Roshni Buy ,992 3, MT Educare Buy

13 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E zothers Radico Khaitan Buy ,163 1,565 1, Garware Wall Ropes Buy Wonderla Holidays Buy , Linc Pen & Plastics Buy Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on September 09, 2015

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