Market Outlook. Market Cues. News Analysis. Investor s Ready Reckoner. Top Picks. Key Upcoming Events. November 22, 2016

Transcription

1 Market Cues Indian market is expected to open on a positive note tracking the SGX Nifty. The US markets, advanced on Monday aided by a jump in oil prices and a retreat in the dollar with the main index closing at all-time highs. Oil prices rose to a 3-week high as Russian President Vladimir Putin fed expectations for an OPEC output deal. The S&P 500 index closed 0.8% higher at 2,198 with energy and materials leading gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% to 18,957. FTSE 100 edged up on Monday, getting a lift from gains by mining and energy stocks as commodities rallied. The index finished less than 0.1% higher at 6,778, advancing slightly after the benchmark scored two up weeks in a row. Yesterday, Indian markets erased all their gains so far this year and the rupee closed at a fresh nine-month low as foreign institutional investors find dollar assets more attractive. FIIs have pulled out a combined $3 billion from local equity and bond markets since the US election that saw the emergence of republican Donald Trump as the president-elect. Sensex shed 385 points, to close at 25,765. Year to date, it has declined 1.35% while the 50-share Nifty has shed 0.22%. News Analysis Reliance Infrastructure bags `3,675cr order from NLC India Detailed analysis on Pg2 Investor s Ready Reckoner Key Domestic & Global Indicators Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks Refer Pg5 onwards Top Picks Company Sector Rating CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancill. Buy 909 1, HCL Tech IT Buy 759 1, Asian Granito Capital Goods Buy Equitas Holdings Financials Buy Navkar Corporation Others Buy More Top Picks on Pg3 Key Upcoming Events Date Region Event Description Previous Reading Consensus Expectations Nov 22 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (8.0) (7.8) Nov 22 US Existing home sales Nov 23 Germany PMI Services Nov 23 Germany PMI Manufacturing Nov 23 US Initial Jobless claims More Events on Pg4 Domestic Indices Chg (Pts) (Close) BSE Sensex (1.5) (385) 25,765 Nifty (1.8) (145) 7,929 Mid Cap (2.8) (338) 11,734 Small Cap (3.2) (375) 11,494 Bankex (2.9) (629) 21,099 Global Indices Chg (Pts) (Close) Dow Jones ,957 Nasdaq ,369 FTSE ,778 Nikkei ,106 Hang Seng ,358 Shanghai Com ,218 Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances Declines 2,261 1,462 Unchanged Volumes (` Cr) BSE 2,549 NSE 19,467 Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd FII (948) (8,974) 36,041 MFs 787 6,512 28,564 Top Gainers Price (`) Chg Naukri Torntpower Infratel Repcohome Eclerx 1, Top Losers Price (`) Chg Centurytex 682 (9.0) Indiacem 106 (9.0) Corpbank 44 (8.8) Pnb 137 (8.8) Natcopharm 584 (8.8) As on November 21, 2016

2 News Analysis Reliance Infrastructure bags `3,675cr order from NLC India Reliance Infrastructure Limited (RInfra) has won an EPC order for `3,675c from NLC India for setting up two lignite based CFBC thermal power projects with a capacity of 250 MW each. The power projects will be set up at Barsingsar and Bithnok of Bikaner district in Rajasthan. The contract includes complete EPC order on turnkey basis for two 250MW power plants based on Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion (CFBC) technology. The project is to be commissioned in 40 months, and will include boiler, turbine and generator and balance of plant. RInfra won the bid amidst stiff competition against leading EPC players. RInfra bid was the lowest among the shortlisted bidders. NLC's thermal power stations are South Asia's first lignite fired and India's first pithead based power station. This project has been won by company at the right time to further leverage the unparalleled comprehension of critical technology, expertise in engineering and time bound execution in the EPC space. With a clear focus to position itself in India's growing infrastructure sector, and a plethora of projects in the offing including metro rails, nuclear power plants, air quality control, marine, inland, railways, ports, dredging, and mega infrastructure projects, the company is targeting EPC opportunities worth `2 lakh cr planned by the Government of India. Economic and Political News GDP growth to drop to 5.5% in Q3 FY17: FinMin Deutsche Bank cuts Sensex target to 25,000 on global cues Demonetisation: RBI gives small borrowers 60 extra days to repay credit Demonetisation: Govt move may be a boon for affordable housing Corporate News Compact is past, car buyers now prefer utility Nusli Wadia slaps defamation notice on Tata Sons December car sales may be muted

3 Top Picks Large Cap Company Market Cap (` Cr) CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Amara Raja Batteries 15, , HCL Tech 1,07, , Infosys 2,09, , Source: Company, Angel Research Rationale To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological products leading to market share gains in both the automotive OEM and replacement segments. The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all the bad news. Back on the growth trend; expect a long term growth of 14% to be a US$20bn in FY2020. Mid Cap Company Market Cap (` Cr) CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Asian Granito Bajaj Electricals 2, Blue Star 4, Dewan Housing Finance 6, Equitas Holdings 5, Jagran Prakashan 5, Mahindra Lifespace 1, Mirza International Navkar Corporation 2, Siyaram Silk Mills 1,111 1,186 1, TV Today Network 1, Source: Company, Angel Research Rationale We expect the company would report strong profitability owing to better product mix, higher B2C sales and amalgamation synergy. Among the top 4 players in the consumer durables segment. Improved profitability backed by turn around in E&P segment. Strong order book lends earnings visibility. Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for Cooling products business which is out pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once operating environment turns around. With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI) consumer segment, the company has increased its presence in tier-ii & III cities where the growth opportunity is immense. Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering growth. Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising & circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue growth. Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty in short-to-long run, attractive valuations We expect the company to report strong growth on back of healthy growth in domestic branded sales (owing to aggressive ad spend and addition in the number of EBOs & multi-brand outlets [MBOs]) and healthy export revenues. Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as well CFS augurs well for the company. Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation. Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business, and anticipated growth in ad spends by corporate to benefit the stock.

4 Key Upcoming Events Result Calendar Date Nov 23, 2016 Nov 24, 2016 Nov 25, 2016 Nov 29, 2016 Dec 1, 2016 Company Siemens Manpasand Bever. Tide Water Oil India Tata Power Co. GSPL Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Global economic events release calendar Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data Last Reported Estimated Nov 22, :30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Nov A (8.00) (7.80) 8:30PM US Existing home sales Million Oct Nov 23, :00PM Germany PMI Services Value Nov P :00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Nov :00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Nov P :00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q P Nov 24, :30PM US New home sales Thousands Oct Nov 25, :30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 3Q F Nov 29, :00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q S :30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Nov Nov 30, :25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Nov (13.00) -- Dec 1, :00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Nov :30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Nov Dec 2, :00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Nov :00PM US Unnemployment rate % Nov Dec 6, :30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 3Q F Dec 7, :00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Oct :30PM India RBI Repo rate % Dec :30PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Dec :30PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Dec Dec 8, 2016 China Exports YoY% % Change Nov (7.30) -- 6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Dec Dec 9, 2016 India Imports YoY% % Change Nov India Exports YoY% % Change Nov :00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Nov Dec 12, :30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Oct Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

5 h Macro watch Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends Exhibit 2: IIP trends QFY QFY QFY QFY QFY QFY15 4QFY QFY16 2QFY QFY QFY QFY (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (3.4) Nov-15 (0.9) Dec-15 (1.6) Jan Feb Mar-16 (1.3) Apr May Jun-16 (2.5) Jul-16 (0.7) Aug Sep-16 Source: CSO, Angel Research Source: MOSPI, Angel Research Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI Mfg. PMI Services PMI Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Source: MOSPI, Angel Research Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends Exhibit 6: Key policy rates c (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) (30.0) (35.0) Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Exports yoy growth Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Imports yoy growth Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct Jan-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: RBI, Angel Research

6 h Global watch Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries (2.0) (4.0) Brazil (3.8) Russia (0.4) India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan (6.0) Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 2016 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries (3.3) (0.8) (2.0) (4.0) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: IMF, Angel Research Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries (x) Brazil 7.8 Russia 16.3 India 13.6 China 15.1 South Africa 17.2 Indonesia 16.2 Malaysia 13.7 Thailand 15.2 UK 16.1 USA 12.8 Germany 14.1 France 0.2 Japan Source: IMF, Angel Research

7 h Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe Returns Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR Brazil Bovespa 61,070 (4.3) Russia Micex 2, India Nifty 7,929 (8.4) (8.3) 1.3 China Shanghai Composite 3, (11.2) South Africa Top 40 44,170 (1.6) (4.3) (5.7) Mexico Mexbol 44,364 (7.8) (8.4) (0.9) Indonesia LQ (7.1) (7.2) 13.9 Malaysia KLCI 1,627 (2.4) (4.0) (1.9) Thailand SET (2.2) (6.4) 2.3 USA Dow Jones 18, UK FTSE 6,778 (3.5) (0.7) 8.0 Japan Nikkei 18, (8.1) Germany DAX 10,685 (0.2) 1.8 (2.3) France CAC 4,530 (0.2) 2.4 (8.6) Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

8 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Agri / Agri Chemical Rallis Accumulate ,551 1,937 2, United Phosphorus Accumulate ,821 15,176 17, Auto & Auto Ancillary Ashok Leyland Buy ,614 22,407 26, Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,528-73,140 25,093 27, Bharat Forge Neutral ,974 7,726 8, Eicher Motors Neutral 20,362-55,305 16,583 20, Gabriel India Buy ,467 1,544 1, Hero Motocorp Buy 2,928 3,541 58,471 30,958 34, Jamna Auto Industries Neutral 173-1,378 1,486 1, L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral ,302 1, Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral 1,200-74,522 46,534 53, Maruti Buy 4,788 6, ,647 68,057 82, Minda Industries Neutral 271-2,153 2,728 3, Motherson Sumi Neutral ,365 45,896 53, Rane Brake Lining Neutral Setco Automotive Neutral Tata Motors Neutral , , , TVS Motor Neutral ,374 13,390 15, Amara Raja Batteries Buy 909 1,167 15,532 5,504 6, Exide Industries Neutral ,488 7,439 8, Apollo Tyres Buy ,257 12,877 14, Ceat Buy 1,158 1,450 4,686 7,524 8, JK Tyres Neutral 113-2,562 7,455 8, Swaraj Engines Neutral 1,301-1, Subros Neutral ,488 1, Indag Rubber Neutral Capital Goods ACE Neutral BEML Neutral 806-3,357 3,451 4, Bharat Electronics Accumulate 1,278 1,414 28,549 8,137 9,

9 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Capital Goods Voltas Buy ,784 6,511 7, BGR Energy Neutral ,567 33, BHEL Neutral ,501 28,797 34, Blue Star Buy ,402 4,283 5, Crompton Greaves Neutral 69-4,353 5,777 6, Greaves Cotton Neutral 121-2,963 1,755 1, Inox Wind Neutral 175-3,879 5,605 6, KEC International Neutral 139-3,575 9,294 10, Thermax Neutral 839-9,999 5,421 5, VATech Wabag Buy ,593 3,136 3, Cement ACC Neutral 1,273-23,903 11,225 13, Ambuja Cements Neutral ,402 9,350 10, India Cements Neutral 106-3,268 4,364 4, JK Cement Neutral 665-4,653 4,398 5, J K Lakshmi Cement Buy ,118 2,913 3, Orient Cement Buy ,648 2,114 2, UltraTech Cement Neutral 3,323-91,196 25,768 30, Construction ITNL Neutral 87-2,862 8,946 10, KNR Constructions Accumulate ,047 1,385 1, Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,348 1, ,658 67,665 77, Gujarat Pipavav Port Neutral 135-6, Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 75-4,172 8,842 9, PNC Infratech Buy ,780 2,350 2, Simplex Infra Neutral 297-1,469 6,829 7, Power Mech Projects Neutral ,801 2, Sadbhav Engineering Accumulate ,717 3,598 4, NBCC Neutral ,603 7,428 9, MEP Infra Neutral ,877 1, SIPL Neutral 85-3,006 1,036 1, (8.4) (5.6) (22.8) (15.9)

10 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) Construction ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Engineers India Neutral 270-9,111 1,725 1, Financials Axis Bank Buy ,187 46,932 53, Bank of Baroda Neutral ,201 19,980 23, Canara Bank Neutral ,667 15,225 16, Dewan Housing Finance Buy ,877 2,225 2, Equitas Holdings Buy , , Federal Bank Neutral 67-11,503 9,353 10, HDFC Neutral 1, ,692 11,475 13, HDFC Bank Accumulate 1,199 1, ,429 46,097 55, ICICI Bank Buy ,200 42,800 44, LIC Housing Finance Buy ,279 3,712 4, Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral ,047 23,532 23, RBL Bank Neutral ,337 1,783 2, South Ind.Bank Neutral 21-2,829 6,435 7, St Bk of India Neutral ,086 88,650 98, Union Bank Neutral ,243 13,450 14, Yes Bank Neutral 1,113-46,836 8,978 11, FMCG Asian Paints Neutral ,299 17,128 18, Britannia Buy 2,895 3,626 34,729 9,594 11, Colgate Accumulate ,136 4,605 5, Dabur India Accumulate ,508 8,315 9, GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,015-21,089 4,350 4, Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,413-48,117 10,235 11, HUL Neutral ,064 35,252 38, ITC Buy ,809 40,059 44, Marico Buy ,190 6,430 7, Nestle* Neutral 5,855-56,451 10,073 11, Tata Global Neutral 116-7,299 8,675 9, Procter & Gamble Hygiene Accumulate 6,517 7,369 21,156 2,939 3,

11 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) IT ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E HCL Tech^ Buy 759 1, ,098 49,242 57, Infosys Buy 911 1, ,286 68,350 77, TCS Buy 2,133 2, , , , Tech Mahindra Buy ,356 29,673 32, Wipro Buy ,353 55,440 60, Media D B Corp Neutral 370-6,791 2,297 2, HT Media Neutral 73-1,696 2,693 2, Jagran Prakashan Buy ,592 2,355 2, Sun TV Network Neutral ,285 2,850 3, Hindustan Media Ventures Neutral 270-1,981 1,016 1, TV Today Network Buy , Metals & Mining Coal India Neutral ,217 84,638 94, Hind. Zinc Neutral ,887 14,252 18, Hindalco Neutral , , , JSW Steel Neutral 1,625-39,270 53,201 58, NMDC Neutral ,360 6,643 7, SAIL Neutral 48-19,659 47,528 53,738 (0.7) 2.1 (1.9) (1.6) Vedanta Neutral ,330 71,744 81, Tata Steel Neutral , , , Oil & Gas Cairn India Neutral ,397 9,127 10, GAIL Neutral ,295 56,220 65, ONGC Neutral , , , Indian Oil Corp Neutral , , , Reliance Industries Neutral , , , Pharmaceuticals Alembic Pharma Neutral ,500 3,483 4, Aurobindo Pharma Buy ,652 15,720 18, Sanofi India* Neutral 4,132-9,516 2,277 2, Cadila Healthcare Accumulate ,397 10,429 12, Cipla Reduce ,790 15,378 18,

12 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) Pharmaceuticals ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Dr Reddy's Neutral 3,135-51,943 16,043 18, Dishman Pharma Neutral 228-3,685 1,718 1, GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,677-22,678 3,000 3, Indoco Remedies Sell ,607 1,112 1, Ipca labs Accumulate ,765 3,303 3, Lupin Buy 1,398 1,809 63,034 15,912 18, Sun Pharma Buy ,242 31,129 35, Power Tata Power Neutral 69-18,554 36,916 39, NTPC Neutral ,722 86,605 95, Power Grid Neutral ,811 25,763 29, Real Estate MLIFE Buy ,415 1,152 1, Telecom Bharti Airtel Neutral , , , Idea Cellular Neutral 71-25,584 40,133 43, zothers Abbott India Neutral 4,491-9,543 3,153 3, Bajaj Electricals Buy ,057 4,801 5, Finolex Cables Neutral 376-5,751 2,883 3, Goodyear India* Neutral 676-1,558 1,598 1, Hitachi Neutral 1,242-3,377 2,081 2, Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 335-6,076 1,440 2, Page Industries Neutral 12,688-14,152 2,450 3, Relaxo Footwears Neutral 390-4,682 2,085 2, Siyaram Silk Mills Accumulate 1,186 1,714 1,111 1,799 2, Styrolution ABS India* Neutral ,440 1, TVS Srichakra Neutral 3,107-2,379 2,304 2, HSIL Neutral 289-2,089 2,384 2, Kirloskar Engines India Ltd Neutral 325-4,700 2,554 2, M M Forgings Neutral Banco Products (India) Neutral 163-1,164 1,353 1, Competent Automobiles Neutral ,137 1,

13 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) zothers ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Nilkamal Neutral 1,218-1,818 1,995 2, Visaka Industries Neutral ,051 1, Transport Corporation of Neutral 165-1,264 2,671 2, India Elecon Engineering Neutral ,482 1, Surya Roshni Neutral ,342 3, MT Educare Neutral Radico Khaitan Buy ,505 1,667 1, Garware Wall Ropes Accumulate , Wonderla Holidays Neutral 319-1, Linc Pen & Plastics Neutral The Byke Hospitality Neutral Interglobe Aviation Neutral ,656 21,122 26, Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd Neutral 201-4,135 2,964 3, Navneet Education Neutral 105-2,500 1,062 1, Navkar Corporation Buy , UFO Moviez Neutral 414-1, VRL Logistics Neutral 264-2,407 1,902 2, Team Lease Serv. Neutral 870-1,487 3,229 4, S H Kelkar & Co. Neutral 279-4,033 1,036 1, Quick Heal Neutral 223-1, Narayana Hrudaya Neutral 331-6,761 1,873 2, Manpasand Bever. Neutral 625-3, , Parag Milk Foods Neutral 257-2,163 1,919 2, Mirza International Buy , Asian Granito Buy ,071 1, Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 21, 2016

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