Market Outlook. Market Cues. News Analysis. Investor s Ready Reckoner. Top Picks. Key Upcoming Events. December 16, 2016

Transcription

1 Market Cues Indian markets are expected to open flat tracking the SGX Nifty. US Markets rose on Thursday as a post-election rally resumed, while investors digested a slew of economic data and the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates. The European markets ended Thursday's session in the green after a series of announcements from central banks. Banks were among the strongest performing stocks after yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by a quarter point. Indian markets closed lower on Thursday in a volatile session after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate for the first time in 2016 and also hinted at a more aggressive pattern of rate increases next year. Higher U.S. interest rates could result in dollar outflows from emerging markets towards the U.S. News Analysis Bajaj launches Dominar 400 at `1.5 lakh Detailed analysis on Pg2 Investor s Ready Reckoner Key Domestic & Global Indicators Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks Refer Pg5 onwards Top Picks Company Sector Rating CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Amara Raja Batt. Auto & Auto Ancill. Buy 909 1, Alkem Laboratories Pharmaceuticals Buy 1,636 1, HCL Tech IT Buy 832 1, Power Grid Corp. Power Buy Navkar Corp. Others Buy More Top Picks on Pg3 Key Upcoming Events Date Region Event Description Previous Reading Consensus Expectations Dec 16 UK BOE Announces rates Dec 16 US Building permits 1, , Dec 16 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) Dec 21 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (6.10) -- Domestic Indices Chg (Pts) (Close) BSE Sensex (0.3) (84) 26,519 Nifty (0.4) (29) 8,154 Mid Cap (0.0) (0) 12,241 Small Cap ,143 Bankex ,100 Global Indices Chg (Pts) (Close) Dow Jones ,852 Nasdaq ,457 FTSE ,999 Nikkei ,274 Hang Seng (1.8) (397) 22,059 Shanghai Com (0.7) (23) 3,118 Advances / Declines BSE NSE Advances 1, Declines 1, Unchanged Volumes (` Cr) BSE 2,582 NSE 17,108 Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd FII (477) (376) 26,902 MFs (222) ,596 Top Gainers Price (`) Chg Hathway Ifci Igl Jswenergy Mphasis Dec 21 US Existing home sales More Events on Pg4 Top Losers Price (`) Chg Nationalum 61 (7.8) Sunpharma 649 (4.4) Unitech 5 (3.6) Intellect 160 (3.5) Edelweiss 88 (3.3) As on December 15, 2016

2 News Analysis Bajaj Auto launches Dominar 400 at `1.5 lakh Bajaj Auto on Thursday launched its latest sports bike Dominar 400 priced up to `1.5 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi) as it looks to challenge segment leader Royal Enfield in the `1-2 lakh category. The Dominar 400, powered by a 373cc engine will be available with ABS and disc brake versions which are priced at `1.5 lakh and `1.36 lakh, respectively. The company is targeting about 20 per cent of the segment and if achieve that the Dominar will be a $1 billion brand in the next months. Initially the company is looking at selling around 10,000 units in the domestic market even as it will start exporting the new product to the global markets from February Further, the company has plan to export to Europe, ASEAN countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines besides Latin America.The company on Thursday opened the booking for the Dominar 400 online with an amount of `9,000 and deliveries will begin by January. Economic and Political News Withdrawal limit may ease after 80% new notes re-channelised Smart city initiatives to benefit 50% of citizens across the globe: Gartner Fortis to add two hospitals through operations and management contracts Corporate News US-based Baxter to acquire Claris Injectables for `4,237cr Maruti Suzuki to launch premium hatchback Ignis on Jan 13 IVRCL Q2 net loss at `354cr

3 Top Picks Large Cap Company Market Cap (` Cr) CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Amara Raja Batteries 15, , Alkem Laboratories 19,561 1,636 1, HCL Tech 1,17, , Infosys 2,28, , Larsen & Tourbo 1,26,681 1,358 1, Lupin 66,769 1,479 1, Power Grid Corporation 95, Source: Company, Angel Research Mid Cap Company Market Cap (` Cr) CMP (`) Target (`) Upside Asian Granito Bajaj Electricals 2, Blue Star 4, Dewan Housing Finance 7, Equitas Holdings 5, Jagran Prakashan 5, Mahindra Lifespace 1, Mirza International Navkar Corporation 2, Siyaram Silk Mills 1,130 1,205 1, TV Today Network 1, Source: Company, Angel Research Rationale To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological products leading to market share gains in both the automotive OEM and replacement segments. Strong growth in domestic business due to its leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem expects to launch more products in USA, which bodes for its international business. The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all the bad news. Back on the growth trend; expect a long term growth of 14% to be a US$20bn in FY2020. Strong order backlog and improvement in execution would trigger the growth for the L&T One of the largest pharma companies with strong international presence. It has a rich pipeline of ANDAs which is also one of the largest among the generic companies. Going forward, we expect the company to report strong top-line CAGR of ~16% and bottom-line CAGR of ~19% over FY16-18 on back of strong capitalization guidance Rationale We expect the company would report strong profitability owing to better product mix, higher B2C sales and amalgamation synergy. Among the top 4 players in the consumer durables segment. Improved profitability backed by turn around in E&P segment. Strong order book lends earnings visibility. Favourable outlook for AC industry augurs well for Cooling products business which is outgrowing the market. EMPPAC division's is likely to turn around on improving economy With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI) consumer segment, the company has increased its presence in tier-ii & III cities where the growth opportunity is immense. Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering growth. Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising & circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue growth. Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty in short-to-long run, attractive valuations We expect the company to report strong growth on back of healthy growth in domestic branded sales (owing to aggressive ad spend and addition in the number of EBOs & multi-brand outlets [MBOs]) and healthy export revenues. Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as well CFS augurs well for the company. Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation. Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business, and anticipated growth in ad spends by corporate to benefit the stock.

4 h Key Upcoming Events Global economic events release calendar Bloomberg Data Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Last Reported Estimated Dec 16, :30 PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Dec :00 PM US Building permits Thousands Nov 1, , :30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Nov F Dec 21, :30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Dec A (6.10) 8:30 PM US Existing home sales Million Nov Dec 22, :00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q T Dec 23, :00 PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q F :30 PM US New home sales Thousands Nov Dec 27, :30 PM US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./ 1985=100 Dec Jan 01, :30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Dec Jan 03, :25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Dec (5.00) 3:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Dec Jan 06, :00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Dec :00 PM US Unnemployment rate % Dec Jan 08, 2017 China Exports YoY% % Change Dec 0.10 Jan 09, 2017 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Dec 2.30 Jan 11, :00 PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Nov (1.10) Jan 12, :30 PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Nov (1.90) Jan 13, 2017 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Dec - Jan 16, :00 PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Dec 3.15 Jan 17, 2017 China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec 6.20 China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q :00 PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Dec 2.40 Jan 18, :00 PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Dec :45 PM US Industrial Production % Dec (0.44) Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

5 h Macro watch Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends Exhibit 2: IIP trends QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (0.9) Dec-15 (1.6) Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 (1.3) Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 (2.5) Jul-16 (0.7) Aug-16 Sep-16 (1.9) Oct-16 Source: CSO, Angel Research Source: MOSPI, Angel Research Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI 56.0 Mfg. PMI Services PMI Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Source: MOSPI, Angel Research Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends Exhibit 6: Key policy rates (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) (30.0) (35.0) Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: RBI, Angel Research

6 h Global watch Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries (2.0) (4.0) Brazil (2.9) Russia (0.4) India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 2016 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries (3.3) (0.8) (2.0) (4.0) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: IMF, Angel Research Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries (x) Brazil Russia India China South Africa Indonesia Malaysia Thailand UK USA Germany France Japan Source: IMF, Angel Research

7 h Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe Returns Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR Brazil Bovespa 58,212 (1.6) (0.6) 26.3 Russia Micex 2, India Nifty 8, (6.4) 7.1 China Shanghai Composite 3,141 (2.8) 0.8 (11.9) South Africa Top 40 44, (3.7) 0.1 Mexico Mexbol 46, (0.5) 7.7 Indonesia LQ (2.9) 13.3 Malaysia KLCI 1, (2.6) (1.7) Thailand SET USA Dow Jones 19, UK FTSE 6, Japan Nikkei 19, (1.3) Germany DAX 11, France CAC 4, Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

8 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Agri / Agri Chemical Rallis Accumulate ,839 1,937 2, United Phosphorus Accumulate ,752 15,176 17, Auto & Auto Ancillary Ashok Leyland Buy ,141 22,407 26, Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,675-77,396 25,093 27, Bharat Forge Neutral ,689 7,726 8, Eicher Motors Neutral 21,515-58,529 16,583 20, Gabriel India Buy ,538 1,544 1, Hero Motocorp Accumulate 3,168 3,541 63,264 30,958 34, Jamna Auto Industries Neutral 170-1,354 1,486 1, L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral ,302 1, Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral 1,182-73,432 46,534 53, Maruti Buy 5,152 6, ,624 68,057 82, Minda Industries Neutral 322-2,554 2,728 3, Motherson Sumi Neutral ,028 45,896 53, Rane Brake Lining Neutral Setco Automotive Neutral Tata Motors Neutral , , , TVS Motor Neutral ,965 13,390 15, Amara Raja Batteries Buy 909 1,167 15,529 5,504 6, Exide Industries Neutral ,816 7,439 8, Apollo Tyres Buy ,191 12,877 14, Ceat Accumulate 1,282 1,450 5,188 7,524 8, JK Tyres Neutral 119-2,700 7,455 8, Swaraj Engines Neutral 1,358-1, Subros Neutral ,488 1, Indag Rubber Neutral Capital Goods ACE Neutral BEML Neutral 927-3,862 3,451 4, Bharat Electronics Neutral 1,439-32,147 8,137 9,

9 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Capital Goods Voltas Buy ,712 6,511 7, BGR Energy Neutral ,567 33, BHEL Neutral ,693 28,797 34, Blue Star Buy ,429 4,283 5, Crompton Greaves Neutral 59-3,704 5,777 6, Greaves Cotton Neutral 124-3,027 1,755 1, Inox Wind Neutral 204-4,537 5,605 6, KEC International Neutral 141-3,635 9,294 10, Thermax Neutral 824-9,813 5,421 5, VATech Wabag Buy ,606 3,136 3, Cement ACC Neutral 1,315-24,695 11,225 13, Ambuja Cements Neutral ,100 9,350 10, India Cements Neutral 113-3,463 4,364 4, JK Cement Neutral 693-4,846 4,398 5, J K Lakshmi Cement Buy ,160 2,913 3, Orient Cement Buy ,543 2,114 2, UltraTech Cement Neutral 3,268-89,705 25,768 30, Construction ITNL Neutral 103-3,373 8,946 10, KNR Constructions Buy ,374 1,385 1, Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,358 1, , , , Gujarat Pipavav Port Neutral 141-6, Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 83-4,631 8,842 9, PNC Infratech Buy ,717 2,350 2, Simplex Infra Neutral 282-1,393 6,829 7, Power Mech Projects Neutral ,801 2, Sadbhav Engineering Accumulate ,700 3,598 4, NBCC Neutral ,398 7,428 9, MEP Infra Neutral ,877 1, SIPL Neutral 90-3,158 1,036 1, (8.4) (5.6) (22.8) (15.9)

10 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Construction Engineers India Neutral ,266 1,725 1, Financials Axis Bank Buy ,083 46,932 53, Bank of Baroda Neutral ,855 19,980 23, Canara Bank Neutral ,542 15,225 16, Dewan Housing Finance Buy ,625 2,225 2, Equitas Holdings Buy , , Federal Bank Neutral 69-11,941 9,353 10, HDFC Neutral 1, ,320 11,475 13, HDFC Bank Accumulate 1,177 1, ,373 46,097 55, ICICI Bank Buy ,526 42,800 44, Lakshmi Vilas Bank Buy ,565 3,339 3, LIC Housing Finance Accumulate ,054 3,712 4, Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral ,866 23,532 23, RBL Bank Neutral ,154 1,783 2, South Ind.Bank Neutral 21-2,866 6,435 7, St Bk of India Neutral ,714 88,650 98, Union Bank Neutral 139-9,552 13,450 14, Yes Bank Neutral 1,186-50,157 8,978 11, FMCG Asian Paints Neutral ,884 17,128 18, Britannia Buy 2,920 3,626 35,041 9,594 11, Colgate Accumulate ,740 4,605 5, Dabur India Accumulate ,887 8,315 9, GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,071-21,325 4,350 4, Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,455-49,557 10,235 11, HUL Neutral ,865 35,252 38, ITC Buy ,503 40,059 44, Marico Buy ,605 6,430 7, Nestle* Neutral 6,167-59,455 10,073 11, Tata Global Neutral 124-7,854 8,675 9,

11 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FMCG Procter & Gamble Hygiene IT Accumulate 6,986 7,369 22,677 2,939 3, HCL Tech^ Buy 832 1, ,370 49,242 57, Infosys Buy 993 1, ,144 68,350 77, TCS Buy 2,260 2, , , , Tech Mahindra Buy ,493 29,673 32, Wipro Buy ,424 55,440 60, Media D B Corp Neutral 354-6,503 2,297 2, HT Media Neutral 72-1,678 2,693 2, Jagran Prakashan Buy ,368 2,355 2, Sun TV Network Neutral ,572 2,850 3, Hindustan Media Ventures Neutral 266-1,955 1,016 1, TV Today Network Buy , Metals & Mining Coal India Neutral ,170 84,638 94, Hind. Zinc Neutral ,506 14,252 18, Hindalco Neutral , , , JSW Steel Neutral 1,632-39,447 53,201 58, NMDC Neutral ,131 6,643 7, SAIL Neutral 53-21,889 47,528 53,738 (0.7) 2.1 (1.9) (1.6) Vedanta Neutral ,996 71,744 81, Tata Steel Neutral , , , Oil & Gas Cairn India Neutral ,969 9,127 10, GAIL Neutral ,908 56,220 65, ONGC Neutral , , , Indian Oil Corp Neutral , , , Reliance Industries Neutral 1, , , , Pharmaceuticals Alembic Pharma Neutral ,644 3,483 4, Alkem Laboratories Ltd Buy 1,636 1,989 19,561 6,043 6, Aurobindo Pharma Buy ,661 15,720 18, Aventis* Neutral 4,284-9,867 2,277 2,

12 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) Pharmaceuticals ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Cadila Healthcare Neutral ,046 10,429 12, Cipla Reduce ,168 15,378 18, Dr Reddy's Neutral 3,115-51,605 16,043 18, Dishman Pharma Neutral 221-3,574 1,718 1, GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,726-23,090 3,000 3, Indoco Remedies Reduce ,435 1,112 1, Ipca labs Accumulate ,770 3,303 3, Lupin Buy 1,479 1,809 66,769 15,912 18, Sun Pharma Buy ,817 31,129 35, Power Tata Power Neutral 78-21,137 36,916 39, NTPC Neutral ,175 86,605 95, Power Grid Buy ,921 25,315 29, Real Estate Prestige Estate Buy ,294 4,707 5, MLIFE Buy ,477 1,152 1, Telecom Bharti Airtel Neutral , , , Idea Cellular Neutral 77-27,730 40,133 43, zothers Abbott India Neutral 4,680-9,945 3,153 3, Asian Granito Buy ,071 1, Bajaj Electricals Buy ,211 4,801 5, Banco Products (India) Neutral 191-1,366 1,353 1, Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd Neutral 197-4,065 2,964 3, Competent Automobiles Neutral ,137 1, Elecon Engineering Neutral ,482 1, Finolex Cables Neutral 424-6,489 2,883 3, Garware Wall Ropes Neutral 625-1, Goodyear India* Neutral 711-1,640 1,598 1, Hitachi Neutral 1,450-3,943 2,081 2, HSIL Neutral 281-2,035 2,384 2, Interglobe Aviation Neutral ,986 21,122 26,

13 Stock Watch Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE EV/Sales(x) zothers ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 357-6,475 1,440 2, Kirloskar Engines India Ltd Neutral 325-4,701 2,554 2, Linc Pen & Plastics Neutral M M Forgings Neutral Manpasand Bever. Neutral 566-3, , Mirza International Buy , MT Educare Neutral Narayana Hrudaya Neutral 338-6,908 1,873 2, Navkar Corporation Buy , Navneet Education Neutral 109-2,587 1,062 1, Nilkamal Neutral 1,329-1,983 1,995 2, Page Industries Neutral 13,689-15,269 2,450 3, Parag Milk Foods Neutral 267-2,247 1,919 2, Quick Heal Neutral 276-1, Radico Khaitan Buy ,541 1,667 1, Relaxo Footwears Neutral 399-4,793 2,085 2, S H Kelkar & Co. Neutral 290-4,198 1,036 1, Siyaram Silk Mills Accumulate 1,205 1,605 1,130 1,733 1, Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 583-1,025 1,440 1, Surya Roshni Neutral ,342 3, Team Lease Serv. Neutral 890-1,522 3,229 4, The Byke Hospitality Neutral Transport Corporation of Neutral 169-1,297 2,671 2, India TVS Srichakra Neutral 3,222-2,467 2,304 2, UFO Moviez Neutral 418-1, Visaka Industries Neutral ,051 1, VRL Logistics Neutral 266-2,426 1,902 2, Wonderla Holidays Neutral 349-1, Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 15, 2016

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