Turbulence underneath the big calm? Exploring the micro-evidence behind the flat trend of manufacturing productivity in Italy
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1 Turbulence underneath the big calm? Exploring the micro-evidence behind the flat trend of manufacturing productivity in Italy Giovanni Dosi 1 Marco Grazzi 1 Chiara Tomasi 1 Alessandro Zeli 2 1 LEM, Scuola Superiore Sant Anna, Pisa 2 Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, ISTAT, Roma ITSG - Università Bocconi Globalization and International Competitiveness Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
2 Outline 1 Analysis of the distributions 2 Test of stochastic (in)equality 3 Transition probabilities of the labor productivities 4 Regression Analysis Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
3 Motivation Flat trend in aggregate manufacturing productivity in the last 15 years in Italy. Does micro data replicate such trend? (not to be taken for granted) If yes then... What is the dynamics - if any - behind the flat aggregate trend? What was the shock on the distribution of productivity that followed the euro introduction? Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
4 The Database Micro Micro.3 is the census of Italian firms bigger than 20 employees (change in data collection in 1998) More than 40% of employment in the manuf. industry More than 50% of value added in the manuf. industry unbalanced panel of over 100,000 firms Integrated sources of data Istat Census (SBS like), Financial Statements, CSI, trade, patents. Censorship of any individual information; data accessible at Istat facilities. A Plus From 1998 availability of financial statements that is a legal requirements for all incorporated firms. Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
5 Growth of manufacturing labor productivity (OECD, 2008 ) Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
6 VA per employee Micro.3 (top) Vs. Eurostat (bottom) Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
7 Averages and Distributions Micro.3 replicates the aggregate flat trend in productivity. Value added per worker is slightly bigger in Micro.3 Size-Productivity relation Composition bias effect In Micro.3 there are only firms bigger than 20 employees Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
8 Distributional Analysis I Heterogeneities in the distribution of labor productivity Heterogeneity is not a property of the the level of aggregation 2 Vs. 3 digit sectors (see Griliches and Mairesse, 1999). No apparent shock after euro introduction. nor in the central tendency neither in the width of the support Asymmetries in the distribution of productivities Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
9 The Asymmetric Exponential Power Asymmetric Exponential Power distributions - AEP (Bottazzi and Secchi 2006) characterized by two positive shape parameters b r and b l, describing the tail behavior in the upper and lower tail, two scale a r and a l, and a location parameter, m. When b s and a s are equal it reduces to a symmetric distribution Allow for more flexibilities Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
10 Exponential Power and Asymmetric EP 1 b =.5 b = 1 b = 2 b = 4 1 b l =.5; b r = 1 b l = 1; b r = 2 b l = 2; b r = 3 b l = 4; b l = Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
11 2 Digit NACE 29 1 Pr Nace 29 (1995) Empirical Normal fit b l =.8 b r = log(labor Prod) Width of the support and asymmetries Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
12 3 Digit nested NACE Pr Nace 292 (1995) Empirical Normal fit b l =.6 b r = log(labor Prod) Width of the support and asymmetries Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
13 2 Digit NACE 29 1 Pr Nace log(labor Prod) No shrink of the support over time (pre- post euro) Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
14 Top to Bottom productivity ratio NACE The support of the distribution widened over time Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
15 Below and above 100 employees 10 1 Pr Nace 29 (2002) Below 100 Above log(labor Prod) Higher productivity due to shift and reduced support Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
16 Distributional Analysis II - asymmetries Fat tails property in all sectors; b is smaller than 2. Asymmetry in the distributions of labor productivity Left coefficient is smaller than right one higher heterogeneity in the left tail The industry keeps to tolerate very low productive The support widens over time firms. Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
17 b l and b r parameters in 55 3-Digit sectors 10 Pr b l b l b l b l Pr b r b r b r b r b l b r Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
18 Distributional Analysis III - Growth rates Laplace distribution of yearly growth rates of productivity (Bottazzi et al. 2005) What about longer time intervals Five years intervals ; No evidence of conversion towards Normal Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
19 Growth rates of productivity 10 Pr Nace 29 ( ) Empirical Normal fit b l =1.03 b r = Gr LProd Tent-shape distribution of productivity growth rates Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
20 Test of stochastic (in)equality No apparent trend in the averages in the last 15 years... Test statistics for the shift of the distribution Fligner-Policello of stochastic (in)equality Most of the productivity growth over the whole sample ( ) is concentrated in the sub-period Some sectors do not display increase in productivity over whole sample period Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
21 FP statistics NACE 91-2 Vs 91-2 Vs 94-5 Vs Vs NACE 91-2 Vs 91-2 Vs 94-5 Vs Vs Rejection of the null means distributions stochasticly differ Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
22 Transition probabilities (TP) of the labor productivities Labor productivity is stable: AR close to 1 (Dosi and Grazzi, 2006) Similar evidence from transition probabilities matrix both over one or more years (Baily et al. 1992; Bartelsman and Dhrymes, 1998) Period Use the binding requirements of financial statements to estimate TP High persistency (main diagonal TP are high) and highest at the top bottom quantile, also on the five year interval. Time t average productivity in Time t + 1 average productivity in Use TP to characterize groups of firms in the TPM Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
23 Transition Probabilities in Productivity Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
24 Laggards, Climbers and Leaders t A A B t 2 A A B 3 4 C Productivity Laggards (A) Productivity Climbers (B) Productivity Leaders (C) Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
25 Laggards, Climbers and Leaders So few climbers! Characteristics of groups at time t Size: Climbers and Leaders bigger on average. Sometimes Climbers even bigger than Leaders recover of size-productivity relation Export activities Differences get more evident when considering destination and number of products Profitability Laggards have higher profits than Climbers Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
26 Laggards, Climbers and Leaders (averages) Sec 15 Lagg. Climb. Lead. Sec 27 Lagg. Climb. Lead. Size Size Export Export Exp NACE Exp NACE Imp NACE Imp NACE Exp countr Exp countr Imp countr Imp countr Patent Patent GOM GOM Obs Obs Trans Prob Trans Prob Sec 17 Lagg. Climb. Lead. Sec 28 Lagg. Climb. Lead. Size Size Export Export Exp NACE Exp NACE Imp NACE Imp NACE Exp countr Exp countr Imp countr Imp countr Patent Patent GOM GOM Obs Obs Trans Prob Trans Prob Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
27 Regression Framework Dependent: Growth rate of productivity Independent: Productivity (Π), Size (employees), export & patent dummy, controls. All at time t Run regression on two separate periods pre- post euro t,t+1 Π i = α + β 1 Π i,t + β 2 Size i,t + β 3 exp i,t + β 4 pat i,t + γ controls i,t + ε i Results Π i,t negative and significant in both periods Size Not relevant Export more important in the pre euro Patents only in few sector Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
28 Productivity growth regression (I) const lprod t size exp pat const lprod t size exp pat Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
29 Investment - Regression Framework II Add investment rate (as normalized by firm value added) at time t among regressors Investment available for the whole population up to 1997, after on a representative sample. Use observed investment only (estimated too different from observed) Investment turns out to be significant for productivity growth, especially in the pre euro Other regressions coefficients are stable (both in sign and significance) Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
30 Productivity growth regression II lprod t size inv exp pat lprod t size inv exp pat Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
31 Quantile regressions Quantile regression enables to capture the effect of a regressor at the different levels (quantiles) of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable Given the high heterogeneity in the distributions, quantile regression provides a method to identify the relations among variables One does not get a unique coefficient (as with OLS) but an estimate at every quantile of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable (productivity growth) Matthew effect? For some sectors/ variables the impact of regressors in growing in the quantiles. A small group of efficient high performance high growth firms Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
32 Quantile Regression - Investment Investment NACE Quantile Reg OLS Reg Investment Nace Quantile Reg OLS Reg Deciles Deciles Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
33 Quantile Regression - Investment 0.15 Nace Quantile Reg OLS Reg 0.15 Nace Quantile Reg OLS Reg 0.1 Export 0.1 Export Deciles Deciles Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
34 Concluding Remarks The flat trend of manufacturing productivity holds also for firms bigger than 20 employees. The euro shock has not (yet?) fully disclosed its selection effects. There remains large differences in performances of firms within same 2 and 3 Digit industries: a sort of neo-dualism emerging? Differences have widened not shrinked over time Asymmetries in the distribution of labor productivities Also uneven effects of exporting and investment for low/ high productivity growth firms. Together with very few firms climbing up the productivity distribution Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
35 Thank you! Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
36 Productivity for Patenters and non Patenters, NACE 29 1 Ind. Machinery - NACE 29 Pr Pat 04 non-pat (log) Labor Productivity Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
37 ROS for Patenters and non Patenters, NACE Ind. Machinery - NACE 29 Pr Pat 04 non-pat ROS Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
38 Growth for Patenters and non Patenters, NACE Ind. Machinery - NACE 29 Pr Pat 04 non-pat Growth Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
39 Table: Labor Productivity of Patenters (first row) and non patenters (second row). Do-Gra-To-Ze (Sant Anna & Istat) Turbulence underneath the big calm? Milano, 22/01/ / 39
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