Inflation Differentials in Europe. Balázs Égert Economics Department, OECD

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1 Inflation Differentials in Europe Balázs Égert Economics Department, OECD

2 Objectives of the presentation Different factors driving inflation rates in Europe Differences between mature and catching-up countries

3 Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle I. Large productivity gains in the tradable sector and yet low Balassa- Samuelson effect in the CPI

4 The Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle 10 8 B-S effect inflation inflation Czech Republic Estonia Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Slovenia Slovakia Bulgaria Romania Source: based on Égert, Halpern and MacDonald (2005)

5 Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle II. Large literature showing low B-S effect and yet policymakers still argue in terms of the Balassa-Samuelson effect

6 The Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle 4 elements of the puzzle

7 The Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle Large dispersion of productivity gains in tradables Productivity <->Wages Incomplete wage equalization Large productivity gains in nontradables Low share of market-based nontradables in the CPI

8 Large Dispersion of Productivity Growth in Manufacturing Figure 6. Dispersion of Productivity Growth in Manufacturing 20% 18% 16% 14% productivity grow th SD of productivity grow th w ithin manufacturing 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% FI SE BE NL DE PT euro area FR DK ES IT HU PL SI -2 SK HU - 2 BG CZ CZ - 2 HR RO SI

9 The Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle Large dispersion of productivity gains in tradables Productivity <->Wages Incomplete wage equalization Large productivity gains in nontradables Low share of market-based nontradables in the CPI

10 Wage Equalisation Figure 2c. Difference between annual gross nominal wage growth in market services and manufacturing ( ) 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Hungary Slovakia Poland Croatia Czech Rep

11 The Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle Large dispersion of productivity gains in tradables Productivity <->Wages Incomplete wage equalization Large productivity gains in nontradables Low share of market-based nontradables in the CPI

12 Large Productivity Gains in Nontradables ( ) Euro area Austria Belgium France Germany Netherlands Finland Italy Ireland Greece Portugal Spain Denmark Sweden UK Cyprus Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Slovakia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Croatia Romania TRADABLES NONTRADABLES

13 The Balassa-Samuelson Puzzle Large dispersion of productivity gains in tradables Productivity <->Wages Incomplete wage equalization Large productivity gains in nontradables Low share of market-based nontradables in the CPI

14 Low Share of Market Nontradables in CPI Simple accounting framework p B S = (1 α )( prod T prod NT )

15 Euro area AT BE DE FR NL LU FI IT IE ES PT GR SE UK DK CY MT CZ HU PL SK SI EE LV LT BG RO TR Low Share of Market Nontradables in the CPI (2005) Western Europe CEE

16 Implications For the inflation rate For the real exchange rate

17 Structural factors Services/nontradable goods The usual suspect: Balassa- Samuelson Administered/regulated prices Residential property prices Tradable goods prices

18 Structural factors Services/nontradable goods The usual suspect: Balassa- Samuelson Administered/regulated prices Residential property prices Tradable goods prices

19 Structural factors Services/nontradable goods The usual suspect: Balassa- Samuelson Administered/regulated prices Residential property prices Tradable goods prices

20 Structural factors Services/nontradable goods The usual suspect: Balassa- Samuelson Administered/regulated prices Residential property prices Tradable goods prices

21 Tradable Goods Quality increases Extension of Engel s Law: richer households consume goods of better quality than poorer household; Real convergence => higher share of goods of higher quality => higher price

22 Tradable Goods Quality increases same good example (from 2005): cherry tomato (origin Israel) Hungary: 250g, 119 HUF ( EUR); 2. class Austria: 250g, EUR; 1. class

23 Pricing-to-Market Practices => cars (very homogenous goods) Figure 12. The Relative Price Level of Cars (euro area=1, 2006) euro area price level (VAT included) = 1 Tradable Goods segment B segment C segment D segment E segment F be at ie fr pt nl es it fi gr de se uk dk cy mt cz pl sk lv lt ee si hu

24 Tradable Goods Distribution Sector 12%. Productivity Growth in the Distribution Sector, Annual Averages, % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% FI NL LU DE BE IT FR IE SE DK CZ LV LT EE PL SI HU SK

25 Empirical Exercise Panel estimations Annual data Euro area + CEE countries

26 STRUCTURAL FACTORS BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) B-S NARROW (CONST.) PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES 3 measures OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSUMPTION PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.)

27 STRUCTURAL FACTORS BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) B-S NARROW (CONST.) PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES 3 measures OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSUMPTION PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.)

28 STRUCTURAL FACTORS BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) B-S NARROW (CONST.) PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES 3 measures OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSUMPTION PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.)

29 STRUCTURAL FACTORS BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) B-S NARROW (CONST.) PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES 3 measures OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSUMPTION PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.)

30 CYCLICAL FACTORS 2 measures of OUTPUT GAP ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE NEER OTHER FACTORS HOUSE PRICES VAT INCREASES AND DECREASES MONETARY AGGREGATES

31 CYCLICAL FACTORS 2 measures of OUTPUT GAP ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE NEER OTHER FACTORS HOUSE PRICES VAT INCREASES AND DECREASES MONETARY AGGREGATES

32 CYCLICAL FACTORS 2 measures of OUTPUT GAP ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT EXTERNAL FACTORS PRICE OF OIL EXCHANGE RATE and OPENNESS OTHER FACTORS HOUSE PRICES VAT INCREASES AND DECREASES MONETARY AGGREGATES

33 CYCLICAL FACTORS 2 measures of OUTPUT GAP ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE NEER OTHER FACTORS HOUSE PRICES VAT INCREASES AND DECREASES MONETARY AGGREGATES

34 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

35 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

36 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

37 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

38 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

39 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

40 Table 13b. Euro Area (excluding Luxembourg) + CEE-10 Dependent variable: annual change in the HICP: P t = f (X ) Regulated prices excluded House prices included House prices excluded GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS OLS OLS GMM GMM GMM GMM OLS OLS CONSTANT 0.781*** 0.817*** 0.843*** 0.796*** 2.134*** 1.896*** INFLATION (-1) 0.200*** 0.276*** 0.255*** 0.301*** 0.302*** 0.319*** 0.320*** 0.306*** 0.307*** 0.228*** 0.198*** 0.242*** 0.244*** CYCLICAL FACTORS OUTPUT GAP **** 0.195*** 0.176*** 0.321*** 0.271*** 0.182** OUTPUT GAP *** 0.296*** 0.180*** 0.201*** 0.322*** 0.284*** 0.164*** ULC GOV. SURPLUS/DEFICIT *** *** BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT B-S WIDE (CONST.) ** *** B-S NARROW (CONST.) ** *** PRODUCTIVITY DIFF. REGULATED PRICES REG *** 0.397*** 0.268*** 0.266** 0.273*** 0.276*** 0.223*** 0.269*** 0.182*** 0.187*** 0.221*** 0.229*** REG2 REG *** OTHER STRUCTURAL FACTORS SHARE OF RECREATION IN THE HICP SHARE OF FOOD IN THE HICP * ** REAL FINAL HOUSHOLD CONSO PRICE LEVEL 97 (CONST.) ** * GDP PER CAPITA 0.042*** 0.021*** EXTERNAL FACTORS OIL PRICE (-1) 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.006*** 0.008*** 0.006*** 0.009** 0.009** NEER ** ** NEER (-1) *** *** *** *** OTHER FACTORS MONETARY AGGREGATES HOUSE PRICES 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.022** 0.017** 0.018** 0.014** 0.013** VAT INCREASES VAT DECREASES R2-adj Jarque-Bera normality test (p-value) No. of OBS No. of COUNTRIES Notes: See Table 11. 4

41 Conclusion Cyclical and external factors are very important Structural factors are also important services + goods but B-S effect is not very important

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