United States Central Command NATO C-IED BRIEF JUNE 2016

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1 United States Central Command NATO C-IED BRIEF JUNE 2016 LCDR Matthew Coombs CIED Branch Chief Derived from: Multiple Sources Reason: 1.4(c) Declassify on: 21 June

2 2 Agenda Perspective: CENTCOM IED Trends/ Key Observations ISIL Remote Control Model Aircraft (RCMA) Examples of VBIED s Offensive/ Defensive IED Belts CENTCOM C-IED Concerns

Global IED Trends and Key Observations 1 Apr 2015 31 Mar 2016 compared to the previous 12 month period

Incidents 29,084 incidents Casualties 67,258 casualties 23% 21% Increasing Activity Most Significant Increases

55 13% Top 10 IED Countries Key Trends Previous Current Apr 2015-Mar 2016 Country Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan

recorded significant increases from 1 2 AFGHANISTAN 6,934 11,347 last year where Turkey recorded an increase

663 2,110 made from Homemade Explosive (HME).

3 Global IED Trends and Key Observations 1 Apr Mar 2016 compared to the previous 12 month period (U//FOUO)Afghanistan and Iraq account for 79% of IED incidents and 82% of IED casualties within CENTCOM IED Incidents 29,084 incidents Casualties 67,258 casualties 23% 21% Increasing Activity Most Significant Increases in Top 10 IED Countries Country Incidents % Change IRAQ h 5,537 86% TURKEY h 616 1,311% EGYPT h 57 14% INDIA h 55 13% Top 10 IED Countries Key Trends Previous Current Apr 2015-Mar 2016 Country Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan remain the top IED hotspots; Ranking Ranking Incidents Casualties 2 1 IRAQ 12,002 34,936 Turkey and Iraq have recorded significant increases from 1 2 AFGHANISTAN 6,934 11,347 last year where Turkey recorded an increase of 1,311% 4 3 SYRIA 3,530 6, COLOMBIA 1, Overwhelming majority of ISIL s IED s are 20 5 TURKEY 663 2,110 made from Homemade Explosive (HME). 6 6 INDIA EGYPT 454 1,043 IED s remain the weapon of choice for 5 8 PAKISTAN 453 1, SOMALIA terrorists, insurgents, and criminals PHILIPPINES

4 ISIL Remote Control Vehicle/Aircraft Employment (U) ISIL RCMA use unspecified drone footage for attack planning MAY16 (U) ISIL RCMA captured Mannequin wrapped in tape (U) ISIL developed mannequins, in an attempt to trick checkpoints for remote-controlled VBIEDs 4 ISIL s unconventional use of Remote Control vehicles/aircraft. Commercial RCMA technologies are anticipated to improve.

5 Armored VBIED s 5 ISIL s use of the Up-Armored VBIED s as a precision weapon system

6 Offensive/ Defensive IED Belts - Armored Dozer 6 ISIL s utilization of IED belts in an Offensive and Defensive tactical manner

7 7 Top Concerns/ Current Threat (U) Key Takeaways: (U//FOUO) Tunneling is prevalent globally and lends itself to adaptation by various groups. N (U//FOUO) Observed tunnels range in length from 15m -1.5km and take anywhere from 30 days to nine months to dig, dependent on length and soil composition. (U//FOUO) Urban terrain, such as Baghdad, presents existing underground access without the need to actually dig a tunnel.

8 CENTCOM s C-IED Challenges REPORTING REPORTING REPORTING C-IED EXPLOITATION/

MVBIED, TUNNELS, HBIED, MAIED, IMPROVISED MORTARs) DRIVES UPDATES TO EQUIPMENT

COMBATANT COMMAND THREAT NETWORKS ESSENTIAL CROSS COMBATANT COMMAND FLOW OF

8 8 CENTCOM s C-IED Challenges REPORTING REPORTING REPORTING C-IED EXPLOITATION/ COMMUNICATION DRIVES TARGETING DRIVES UNDERSTANDING OF TTPS AND THREAT (C-UAS, MVBIED, TUNNELS, HBIED, MAIED, IMPROVISED MORTARs) DRIVES UPDATES TO EQUIPMENT (CREW, ISR, ROBOTICs, ETC) INFORMATION SHARING ACROSS PARTNERS ESSENTIAL CROSS COMBATANT COMMAND THREAT NETWORKS ESSENTIAL CROSS COMBATANT COMMAND FLOW OF PRECURSORS AND COMMERCIAL GRADE EXPLOSIVES (HME Precursors) STRATEGIC NARRATIVE ALWAYS AHEAD OF THE ENEMY

9 Questions? 9 9

10 10 CENTCOM s Theater Campaign Plan CIED Lines of Operation: Attack the Network Defeat the Device Train the Force Enable Partner Nation C-IED Capacity 10

IED Incidents IED Incidents IED Incidents Casualties IED Incidents CENTCOM IED Trends Data is for 01 Apr 2015 31 Mar 2016 compared to the previous 12 month period Top Countries by Total Incidents (01

11 IED Incidents IED Incidents IED Incidents Casualties IED Incidents CENTCOM IED Trends Data is for 01 Apr Mar 2016 compared to the previous 12 month period Top Countries by Total Incidents (01 Apr Mar 2016) Rank Country Apr 2014-Mar 2015 Apr 2015-Mar 2016 Δ Incidents Casualties Incidents Casualties Incidents Casualties 1 IRAQ 6,465 24,947 12,002 34,936 h 5,537 86% 9,989 40% h 2 AFGHANISTAN 10,071 13,136 6,934 11,347 i -3,137-31% -1,789-14% i 3 SYRIA 979 3,521 3,530 6,073 h 2, % 2,552 72% h 4 EGYPT ,043 h 57 14% % h 5 PAKISTAN 537 2, ,538 i % % i 6 YEMEN 158 1, i % % i 7 LEBANON i % 97 40% h 8 SAUDI ARABIA h 7 350% ,050% h 9 KUWAIT h 3 300% 37 h 10 IRAN i -2-50% 4 50% h USCENTCOM 18,686 46,870 23,514 56,508 h 4,828 26% 9,638 21% h 11 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 11,604 6,642 4,612 8,743 4,782 3,802 3,821 1,436 2,383 2, , (U) IED Incidents and Casualties Overview 24,894 24,824 3,311 10,395 Apr11- Mar12 2,186 11,874 Apr12- Mar13 24,110 11,188 10,764 8,323 1,593 14,194 Apr11- Mar12 Apr12- Mar13 Apr13- Mar14 Find Cache Explosion Casualties 18,686 6, ,964 Apr14- Mar15 Apr13- Mar14 23,514 8,222 1,112 14,180 Apr15- Mar16 (U) IED Incidents by Switch Type (Excluding Unknowns and Cache) Victim Operated Time Command Apr14- Mar % of IED switch types are unknown in the last year Apr15- Mar16 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10, ,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 (U) IED Target Overview Apr11- Mar12 31% of IED targets are unknown in the 17,899 last year 17, ,700 15, (Excluding Unknowns and Cache) 4,283 1, ,085 Apr12- Mar ,136 2, , Apr13- Mar14 13, ,186 Apr14- Mar Apr11- Apr12- Apr13- Apr14- Apr15- Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 83% of IED employment modes are unknown in the last year (U//FOUO) Although casualties from IEDs are 21% higher than last year, the number of Casualties per Explosion remained nearly the same (3.32 casualty per explosion last year and 3.99 in the most recent year) Civilian Military Police Government Infrastructure Other/Misc (U) Known IED Incidents by Employment Method Person-borne Suicide Vehicle-borne Vehicle-borne As of: ,956 Apr15- Mar16

The Global Counter IED Market

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