Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East
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1 Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East Dr. Matthias Koehler Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie All rights reserved. Copyright 2008 Euler Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG and PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG. GERMAN NEAR AND MIDDLE EAST CONFERENCE, BERLIN May 24 th, 2011
2 Hermes Cover for Exports to the Middle East Balancing elevated risks in dynamic markets Agenda 1 Volume covered 2 Cover Policy 3 Recent Events 4 Risks & Experience 5 Project Trends 6 Outlook page 2
3 Volume covered German Exports, Hermes Cover and Growth in the Middle East ,0 EUR m ,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 weighted regional GDP, % yoy change f Exports Hermes Cover (left scale) Regional Growth (right scale) Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, Euler Hermes, IMF WEO April 2011 page 3
4 Volume covered Share of German Exports under Hermes Cover in % Middle East Developing and Emerging Markets Share of Total German Exports page 4
5 Volume covered in Euro million 1. UAE 2. Oman 3. Saudi Arabia 4. Israel 5. Kuwait 6. Qatar 7. Bahrain 8. Jordan 9. Syria 10. Yemen page 5
6 Cover Policy Short Term Credit (up to one year): Open for Cover Limitations only for Lebanon (L/C)and Palestine (only small transactions, private Sector) Medium/ Long Term: Open for Cover Restrictions only Lebanon, Syria (only small transactions), Jordan and Yemen (case by case) Cover for Structured and Project Finance available in most countries Individual Country Cover Policies determined by Sustainable Lending Principles (OECD) for Public Buyers (only Yemen) Country Category (OECD-Category) Possibly by recent events (Bahrain, Syria) Middle East Cover Policy Overall: Few limitations for everyday business as well as large projects page 6
7 Effects from the Arabellion? Some form of jihad (uprising) in all North African and Middle East countries Germany supports democratic reform in Tunisia and Egypt Imposed sanctions on Libya in line with international resolutions Consistently, Hermes Cover has been granted throughout the largely peaceful transition process in Tunisia and Egypt Whereas Hermes Cover for Libya has been suspended as violence escalates On the basis of a close monitoring of a country s situation: Currently Hermes Cover for projects in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen case by case Cover for regular deliveries on short terms are available for the time being page 7
8 Recent Events Recent changes: Bahrain: 4 (3 before) Syria: 7 (6 before) OECD Country Risk Category 1 - Not assigned Per page 8
9 Indemnifications Paid EUR thousand Saudi Arabia Israel Bahrain UAE page 9
10 Project focus in recent years likely to continue? Power generation: Prerequisite for further growth Alternatives to oil and gas grow in importance Waste water treatment and desalination: Caring for a rising population Passenger Aircraft: Competition for new international junctions Cement Production: Limited growth with a shift in demand page 10
11 Project Trends Israel Oil refinery, container Cranes, textile machines (nonwoven) Jordan Sugar refinery Saudi Arabia Aluminium rolling mill, seamless tube plant, refinery Yemen mobile telecom network, cement mill Iraq Natural gas compressor Kuwait passenger aircraft Oman Combined gas & steam power plants Bahrain Aluminium mill, passenger aircraft, waste water treatment Abu Dhabi, UAE caterpillar and heavyduty cranes, passenger aircraft, Shardja, UAE Freighter aircraft Qatar Tyre recycling, passenger aircraft Dubai, UAE Power generation/ transmissio n/ distribution, desalination plant, city buses, extension of telecom network, passenger aircraft page 11
12 Outlook: 2011 and beyond 1 st Quarter Figures and Trends New Cover Volume Middle East: EUR 0.4bn (1st quarter 2010: EUR 0.9bn) Usual volatility for a region attracting large projects, but Decline also recognisable in volume of regular deliveries We expect the decline in demand to be temporary as underlying trends are long term: Vertical diversification energy intensive industrialisation Power generation and desalination Extension of international trade and transport links However, escalating internal conflicts could lead to suspenion of cover facilites in some countries page 12
13 page 13
14 Thank you for your attention! Dr. Matthias Koehler Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie Tel.: matthias.koehler@bmwi.bund.de Further information is provided under: Export Credit Guarantees: Hotline: +49 (0) 40/ info@exportkreditgarantien.de Investment Guarantees: Hotline: +49 (0)40 / investitionsgarantien@de.pwc.com page 14
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