The Spot Market in the Southern African Power Pool and Impact of Demand Side Management Options. Alison Chikova Chief Engineer (SAPP) 28 May 2015
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1 The Spot Market in the Southern African Power Pool and Impact of Demand Side Management Options Alison Chikova Chief Engineer (SAPP) 28 May 2015
2 Presentation Overview 1. Introduction of SAPP 2. Demand and Supply Balance 3. Demand Side Management 4. SAPP Electricity Market Overview 5. Demand Market Participation 6. Conclusion
3 12 Countries 280 Million people Installed Generation Capacity - 56 GW Available Generation Capacity - 51 GW Peak Demand - 54 GW Consumption - 400TWh Angola DR Congo Zambia Tanzania Malawi Namibia Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Swaziland South Africa Lesotho
4 Generation Mix in SAPP The objective of the SAPP is to provide reliable and economical electricity supply to the consumers of each of the SAPP Members consistent with reasonable utilization of natural resources and effect on the environment CCGT 1.3% Distillate 4.8% Nuclear 3.3% Hydro 21.2% Coal 69.4%
5 Demand and Supply Situation No Country Utility Installed Capacity [MW] As at FEB Angola ENE 2,195 2 Botswana BPC DRC SNEL 2,442 4 Lesotho LEC 74 5 Malawi ESCOM Mozambique EDM /HCB Namibia NamPower South Africa Eskom 44,158 9 Swaziland SEC Tanzania TANESCO Zambia ZESCO / CEC/LHPC 2, Zimbabwe ZESA 2,145 Available Capacity [MW] FEB 2015 Operating Capacity [MW] FEB ,772 1, , ,279 2, ,074 36, , ,204 2,175 1,555 1,555 Peak Demand Capacity Excess / Shortfall including reserves, MW 1599 (7) 610 (360) 1381 (549) 150 (187) 326 (10) (553) (5,579) 219 (675) 935 (223) 2287 (351) 1589 (197) TOTAL 58,608 52,589 46,910 48,216 (8,247) Capacity Shortfalls and Energy Constraints is an opportunity for Demand Side Management (Constraints up to 2019)
6 Demand Side Management Initiatives Demand Reduction (MW) HWLC Commercial Lighting SWH CFL HWLC Hot Water Load Control SWH Solar Water Heater CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp 4,500 MW saving and Virtual Power Station established
7 Electricity Market Evolution in SAPP PREVIOUSLY Bilateral contracts Market evolution FUTURE Bilateral contracts Day-ahead Market (DAM) Forward Physical Markets (MA &WA) Intra Day Market Balancing Market Financial Markets CURRENT Bilateral contracts Short-Term Energy Market (STEM) Post STEM (Balancing Market) 2002 Day-ahead Market (DAM) 2009 Post Day Ahead Market (PDAM)
8 SAPP Integrated Market Design Bilateral Market (Existing) Negotiated contracts. No clearing services. Forward Physical Market (2015) Month and Week Ahead auction markets. Clearing service. Day-Ahead Market (Existing) Day-ahead auction for all price areas. Equilibrium between supply and demand is established for delivery the following day. System price. Intra Day Market (2015) Intraday market with continuous trading up to one hour before delivery. Approximately 24 hours. Balancing Market (Existing) Operated by the respective TSOs where final adjustments are made to achieve balance between supply and demand. Price set after delivery by TSO, participant is price taker. Financial Market (Future) Cash settled futures, forwards and options. Clearing services.
9 SAPP Market Trading Options and Roles Weekly Forward Contracts Monthly Forward Contracts Bilateral Contracts Own Supply
10 Challenges for the SAPP Market SAPP s main objective is to build a sustainable short term market model based on African power industry needs and requirements Long term (Bilaterals & Forwards) Challenge: - Transmission capacity management - Generation Capacity Constraints Short term (DAM) Challenge: - Liquidity - Transmission capacity management Intraday/ PDAM Challenge: - New requirement - How to attract participation? How can these challenges be addressed? Who shall be allowed to participate? How shall this be regulated? Operations - Managed by TSOs - New opportunities?
11 Market Fundamentals Should deliver value to Participants and instill confidence with Investors Fit-for-purpose trading mechanisms Market platforms tailored for local conditions Appropriate products and price setting Easy to understand Open access Market and System Operations to be independent from Participants Abuse of market power is limited Promote demand-side participation Legal and Regulatory Framework
12 Demand Market Participation Alternatives Product Description Benefits Day-Ahead Scheduled Load Shifting Instantaneous Reserve Supplemental Reserve Emergency Reserve Optimal scheduling of supply and demand options. Provide energy within 5 seconds following a frequency incident. Provide energy within 1/2 to 6 hours following a deviation from the day-ahead schedule. Provide energy in emergencies. Flatter daily load profile Higher load factor for base-load generators Reduced need for two-shifting Generators run more efficient Higher load factor for base-load generators Relieves generators of cycling operation Improves reliability of supply when no other generators are available Improves reliability of supply
13 Benefits of Demand Side Management Mitigating electrical system emergencies Reducing power system outages and increasing system reliability Reducing dependencies on expensive fuels and reduction of energy prices Deferring high investments in generation, transmission and distribution
14 Demand Side Impacts on Energy Markets Introduction of Renewable Energy Technologies means there is greater need for load following capabilities. New operating regime for System Operators Demand Response is responding to price signals, Interruptible Loads being used and paid when switched off. Special tariff category defined. Demand Side Participation currently allowed within country borders. Regulations and rules needs to be put in place to allow demand to participate without hindrances
15 Vision is to have an African Market TUNISIA ALGERIA LIBYA EGYPT MAURITANIA SENEGAL GAMBIA GUINEE-BISSAU GUINEE SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA COTE D IVOIRE MALI BURKINA FASO GHANA TOGO BENIN NIGER NIGERIA TCHAD RCA SUDAN ERITERA ETHIOPIA DJIBOUTI POWER POOLS IN AFRICA GUINEE EQ. KENYA COMELEC SAO TOME & PRINCIPE GABON RD CONGO R. B. TANZANIA WAPP COMORES CAPP ANGOLA ZAMBIA EAPP (+ RDC, Rwanda, Burundi) SAPP NAMIBIA BOTSWANA Interconnect of Power Pools is key SWAZILAND LESOTHO
16 The SAPP Market Trading Platform Built to support the future African power markets
17 Experiences from SAPP Regulators should be involved in making the conditions conducive for private players. Transmission open access should be given to both generators and loads and both should pay. The competitive market is an opportunity to get good prices rather than to be locked in a long term PPAs. The participation of demand has helped manage the demand and supply balance and in optimizing generation investments.
18 For more information contact Eng. Alison Chikova Chief Engineer Website: Phone: Fax:
19
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