Some context on the Mid-C and the Energy Imbalance Market Projects in the West

Transcription

1 Some context on the Mid-C and the Energy Imbalance Market Projects in the West Bill Dearing, Dearing Consulting All opinions expressed are my own, and not approved by anyone, anywhere

2 How did we get here? Rock Island first on the river, started 1930 The 308 report maps the river, early 30s Suggests 10 potentials dam sites Bonneville and Grand Coulee start, 1934 Bonneville Power Act, 1937 Post WW2, Corps and Bureau get to work Then, Eisenhower elected, 1952 Steps back opening the way for the PUDs

3 The Mid-Columbia Priest Rapid/Wanapum first, had to be deauthorized From the early 50 s to late 60 s,grant, Chelan and Douglas build the 5 Mid-C projects Not much load here, so built with 50 year slice contracts to major NW IOUs + Alcoa BPA builds most of the transmission Canadian Treaty and Pacific NW Coordination Agreement signed early 60s Have monthly coordination, what next?

4 The Mid-C and the 100 mile bus PSE, AVA, PAC, and PGE had shares of multiple Mid-C projects Mid-Columbia Hourly Coordination, 1972 New technology allowed 4 second remote dispatch Jointly dispatched by Central at Grant, single signal for all projects to Mid-C Generation is shifted to smooth hydraulics Your generation can show up at any of the 7 projects along the 100 mile bus, depending on conditions

5 The Mid-C / Regulation and load following source for the NW PSE, AVA, PGE, and PPL all did most NW load following and regulation with the Mid-C Used dynamic transfers to their loads across owned or BPA s transmission Lots of bilateral trades due to flow changes What s different now causing the stress? Endangered Species Act has limited flexibility Vernita Bar- a non-listed species Lots of new non-dispatchable variable generation Smaller IOU shares due to expiring contracts

6 EIM- WECC takes a first look Efficient dispatch toolkit (an EIM) along with Enhanced Curtailment Calculator Commissions a study by NREL with PUCs Generally using an SPP 5 minute model Results ambiguous, with wide range of possible outcomes The Board is split as to WECC s role- some support it running the market, others worried it takes the eye off reliability The SW outage reinforces that one a bit

7 After WECC steps back, WSPP offers If not WECC, who will operate? WSPP floats a concept More later from Arnie

8 State PUCs continue forward with PUC EIM group They continue to look strongly at SPP Commission an update to the NREL study with 10 minute dispatch, just out Questions still lingering to the NW parties: Hydro modeling- is it right? Handling of joint owned units (Coalstrip, Mid-C) Increased coal dispatch (politically viable?) Do we really get the flex-reserve savings? Is no formula for operating reserve margin, is a risk based reduction at the BA level to not violate CPS1 and CPS2- experience based

9 The Joint Initiative, Mid-C EIM, and finally the NWPP The Joint Initiative explored several tools to try and assist half hour, DSS, ACE sharing Looking at mini-eim demonstration at Mid-C for those with dynamic transmission More players with Chelan and Grant Slice sales Limited players, but see if market can work With a kick from Secretary Chu, the NWPP parties formed a new group Long history of cooperation in Reserve Sharing Easier to move forward with smaller group More from Bill shortly

10 The shifting landscape, FERC Order 764 Requires 15 minute transmission scheduling be offered Shortens the distance from this new baseline to a full EIM Can you do 15 minute schedules manually? Ancillary Services FERC says an EIM energy market would not be ancillary services subject to the Avista ruling More later

11 So, still active in WECC on EIM: WECC- Not likely, but waiting to be asked PUC EIM Working to get the best numbers, but in theory not advocating Supporting NWPP analytic effort WSPP- Option still open NWPP- Working as we speak Mid-C mini startup option still under consideration

12 So, the ball is still moving forward, but: Will it really be cost effective, or are we just shifting the cash flow around? How far do have to go to meet Order 764? How do we bid hydro in an EIM market? BPA has at least 3 zones that could have different LMPs where they load follow/ regulate The Mid-C may have some cut planes that complicate participation with Hourly Coordination Stay tuned!

13 Questions later!

14 Update on Recent European Experiences with Grid Integration of Wind and Solar Power ANDREAS ULBIG, ETH ZURICH (SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY) DR. YURI MAKAROV, PNNL (PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY) WECC VGS Webinar Richland, WA 1

15 Motivation Concentrating on Germany and Spain New developments Solar PV boom in Germany (>25 GW PV installed as of early 2012), somewhat smaller PV boom in Italy and Spain Large-scale deployment of offshore wind parks (North Sea, Baltic Sea) Emergence of wide-area offshore and inland DC systems New mitigation measures (e.g. markets for regulation, curtialment of renewables,...) 2

16 Overview of European Power System ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity) 42 transmission system operators (TSOs) in 34 European countries (official website) (transparency) Spain Germany Comparision of VG Deployment (2010) VG Generation Technology EU US Wind 84 GW 40 GW PV 29 GW 2.5 GW CSP 0.6 GW 0.5 GW Ocean Power 0.3 GW 0 GW REN21 Global Status Report 2011 (end-of year 2010 installed capacity) 3

17 European Power System Frequency Continental European grid (formerly known as UCTE grid) is a synchronized grid (50 Hz) Synchronous area reaches out to Eastern Europe, North Africa and Turkey (2010) DC Links to UK, Eastern Europe, Russia, Scandinavian countries 4

18 European Power System Frequency 4 November 2006 European System disturbance What had happened? Two HV lines in Northern Germany were disconnected (scheduled ship passage below lines) but not according to agreed schedule between system operators Neighboring system operators were unaware of this infeasible power flow situation occured (tripping of further lines split!) Splitting of Continental European Grid (22:10:40) A large synchronous grid area needs effective communication between system operators. 5

19 European Power System Power Flows Energy Flows 382 TWh (in 2010) Main «traffic» between Germany-France, Germany- Austria, through Switzerland, France-Italy Loop flows from Germany go through Poland, Czech Republic, Austria back to Germany Countries west of Germany are protected by phase-shifting transformers Germany and Switzerland very well connected Spain (and Iberian Peninsula) are relatively isolated in comparison (close to island operation) 6

20 European Power System Energy Markets Western and Northern Europe have very well established power markets Nordpool: Scandinavian Power Market (1st multi-national energy market, dating back to 1993) European Power Exchange: Central European Power Market (France, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, 2002) European markets are based mostly on implicit auctions (= grid constraints are hidden from market participants, flow-based market coupling, overall minimization of supply costs) Internal gid constraints are mitigated via generation redispatch and countertrading by TSOs In case of congestion: zonal pricing according to congestion levels between price zones (price zones mostly along national borders) European Markets are not based on nodal (LMP) pricing. Mostly implicit auctions used.

21 Why Studying Grid Integration Experiences in Germany and Spain..? DE Germany DK Denmark ES Spain PT Portugal 8

22 Germany s Power System Wind and Solar Fluctuating RES deployment = Differing challenges each day depening on forecast accuracy Wind Power In-Feed (DE ) Wind Power In-Feed (DE ) June 9 22, PV Power In-Feed (DE ) PV Power In-Feed (DE )

23 Germany s Power System VG Impact Forced curtailment of wind power in-feed due to grid constraints (and other contingencies) on MV level Year 2009 Year 2010 Events per Month Average: events/month Days/Month Events per Month Average: events/month Days/Month Source: Jens Bömer, Ecofys 10

24 Germany s Power System VG Impact Peak hours Normalized hourly spot price Reduction of spot price spread ζ due to PV infeed (zero marginal cost, zero price bid in supply curve) Net energy arbitrage potential net between peak and off-peak hours significantly reduced Normalized PV in-feed Source: Hildmann, Ulbig, Andersson, IEEE EEM 2011 PV in-feed flattens spot price curve during peak hours, reducing energy arbitrage yield. 11

25 German Power System Increasing Flexibility Storage Germany plus neighboring countries: Plans to increase combined hydro capacities by +60% (power rating) / +120% (energy storage rating). Grid Constraints 3,800km of HV lines within Germany, predominantely North-South and Northeast-Southwest corridors Some projects are proposed to be realised as HVDC connections. Conventional Generation Making fossil-fueled generation fleet more flexible (retro-fitting, new units) Power Markets Central and North European markets as an effective means of mitigating high wind/pv power in-feed situations Controllability over Variable Generation (Wind, PV) Increasing controllability over wind and PV units, as well as improving on-line measurements and power in-feed forecasts 12

26 Grid Integration Experiences in Spain Spanish Situation 47.2 million inhabitants 195,364 sq mi Transmission System Operator: REE Red Eléctrica de España (created in 1985) in early % state-owned 80% public (Spanish stock market) 36,000km (220/380kV) 13

27 Grid Integration Experiences in Spain Recent developments in the Spanish Power System Continuing onshore wind turbine deployment total capacity 21.6GW PV boom until 2008 and again from 2011 onwards total capacity 6.8GW Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) boom total capacity 4.1GW Impact of variable renewable generation sources on power system operation, e.g. forced curtailment of wind/pv in-feed, difficulty keeping must-run generation online. Construction and planing of interconnectors France Spain (+2GW in 2014) Construction and planing of hydro storage units 14

28 Spanish Power System Outlook Generation mix evolution ( ) Wind GW Solar Combined Cycle Coal Nuclear Hydro (all) Source: Miguel de la Torre, REE Year Wind, PV and CSP units will constitute around 45% (60GW) of the generation fleet in

29 Spanish Power System Wind Recent Wind In-feed records Wind power in-feed Maximum 16.6 GW (18 April 2012) Minimum 0.3 GW (21 May 2011) Wind energy supplied Maximum 61% (14.9GW) of actual demand (24.4GW) (19 April 2012, 1:37am) Minimum <1% of actual demand 16

30 Spanish Power System Controlling VG Red Eléctrica s National Renewables Dispatch Center (CECRE) REE can control and observe variable generation (VG) power in-feed in National Renewables Dispatch Center (CECRE) CECRE aggregates information from 30 Renewable Energy Control Centers (RESCCs) [aggregator concept] all units >10MW have to be connected to a RESCC (RD 1565/2010) Controllability (units > 10MW) 95% of wind capacity 100% of CSP capacity Observability (units/aggregations > 1MW) 100% of wind capacity 100% of CSP capacity Source: Miguel de la Torre, REE 10.6% of PV capacity (experimental stadium) 68% of PV capacity (only 3% prior to RD 1565/2010) 17

31 Spanish Power System Controlling VG Curtailment of Wind In-feed (Source: Miguel de la Torre, Red Eléctrica de España) 18

32 Spanish Power System Increasing Flexibility Storage Existing hydro storage capacity is around 17GW. Hydro-pump capacity is planned to increase by up to 7700 MW in 2020 (newbuilt and upgrade). Some projects under construction already (900 MW). Interconnection Lines HVDC cable between Spain and France with a capacity of 2000 MW (to be commissioned in 2014). Submarine cable between Northern Spain and France (to be commissioned in 2020). 400 kv line between Southern Spain (Andalucia) and Portugal, (to be commissioned in 2014) as well as Northern Spain (Galicia) and Portugal (to be commissioned in 2020). Source: Miguel de la Torre, REE 19

33 Spanish Power System Increasing Flexibility Power Markets changes in the energy market to reduce the gate-closure time, harmonization of the European energy markets, cross-border real-time balancing with France and Portugal, changes in the way the interconnection capacity with France is managed Ancillary Service Markets Provisions of ancillary services also via demand response (DR). Conventional Generation Technical improvements of conventional generaion units (required minimum part-load levels, ramping constraints) Heat storages for CHP units (partial decoupling of heat and electricity demand profiles) Source: Miguel de la Torre, REE 20

34 Summary Takeaways for the US: Bigger markets and new transmission help, but Curtailments are necessary to balance, even in country wide single BA operation Direct unit control is an extremely valuable tool Outage coordination amongst BAs is essential Intermittent resources flatten the daily price curve and lower it overall Trouble ahead for independent capacity developers 21