Abstract. 1 The Electric Vehicle and Amsterdam

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1 The potential of the electric vehicle; a scenario analysis for Amsterdam S. A. Rienstra*, F. Bisschop^ & P. Nijkamp* " Dept. of Spatial Economics, Free University, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HVAmsterdam, The Netherlands srienstr@econ.vu.nl *> Energy Northwest NV, PO-box 150, 2060 AD Bloemendaal, The Nethelands Abstract This paper investigates by means of a scenario analysis which conditions have to be fulfilled for a successful introduction of electric vehicles in the city of Amsterdam. First, a short introduction to Amsterdam and electric vehicles is given. Next, four scenarios are constructed by means of the so-called Spider-model. The four quadrants of the model represent policy concerns about (inter)national flanking policies, local economic developments, local spatial policies and public transport policies, respectively. Four scenarios are constructed: 'Prosperous Amsterdam', 'Sustainable Amsterdam', 'Pauperized Amsterdam' and 'Lonely Amsterdam'. It is concluded that flanking policies at both the (inter)national and local level as well as a positive economic development are a sine qua non for a successful introduction and adoption of the electric vehicle. When these conditions are fulfilled, the electric vehicle may decisively contribute to the achievement of a more environmental friendly urban transport system. 1 The Electric Vehicle and Amsterdam Urban transport causes numerous and rising environmental problems, which cannot easily be solved. Electric vehicles may significantly contribute to reducing these external costs (see e.g.,deluchi [1]): at the local level there are no emissions of harmful gases, there is little noise annoyance, while at the macro level the emissions of greenhouse gases are lower than of conventional cars (in the Netherlands about 20%). The latter depends very much on the way electricity is produced; when this occurs in more sustainable ways in the future, the environmental advantages may further increase. The main disadvantage of the electric vehicle stems from its technical features. Especially the driving range (about 130 km) makes the car unattractive for potential users, although many car drivers only use their car incidentally for longer distances (see Quandt [2]). Also the costs of electric vehicles are relatively high. It is expected, however, that these may be reduced to the level of conventional vehicles when mass production is applied. The future development of battery, electricity and petrol prices are extremely important in this respect (DeLuchi et al [3]).

2 156 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century The official transport policy objectives of the Amsterdam region are to stabilise car use at the level of the year 1990, to double public transport use and to increase bicycle use largely (ROA [4]). However, scenario calculations indicate that these objectives are not realistic, and more recent statistics show that car use is rising while public transport use is decreasing. This may be caused by several reasons. First, the population is expected to grow at a relatively high growth rate and several new residential areas are planned in and around the current built environment. Second, the local and regional economy is developing very dynamically. Especially the southern part of Amsterdam and the area around Schiphol Amsterdam airport are attracting many offices in the services sector (especially national and international oriented financial and business services), while the harbour area in the northern part is developing as a modern industrial area. Furthermore, Amsterdam is developing as a major distribution and trade centre. Third, flanking national policies like the introduction of road pricing, fuel price increases etc. are not or less strictly introduced than announced. Furthermore, investments in high quality public transport infrastructure are delayed, while public transport companies face serious cuts in operation subsidies, resulting in lower frequencies and closure of services. It is clear that it is almost impossible to achieve the objective of stabilization of car use and doubling public transport use. As mentioned above, a substitution of conventional cars by electric vehicles may also result in large reductions of externalities. The potential of electric vehicles and the success and failure factors for the introduction will now be investigated by means of a scenario approach. For a more elaborated version of the scenarios, we refer to Rienstra [5]. 2 The Construction of the Scenarios The scenarios will be constructed by means of an adapted version of the so-called Spider model, which is presented in Figure 1. The Spider web is subdivided in four main fields, which represent the major relevant developments and local policy objectives. The eight axes represent the most important driving forces within these fields. The outer points on the axes can be regarded as 'desirable' developments, as they are defined in the local policy or for achieving a sustainable economic development. The points on the axes in the centre of the 'spider' on the other hand, present more or less undesirable developments. For a more detailed discussion of the methodology, we refer to Nijkamp et al. [6]. In the first quadrant, the institutional environment and the intensity of the environmental and transport policy at the (international level are presented. These flanking policies will largely influence the mobility level and the modal split (by taxes, road pricing systems, infrastructure

3 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century 157 sport policy^/ ^ ^ Public transport fees 6 ( Local policy Parking policy Figure 1: The Spider model for depicting the future of Amsterdam investments etc.). An increased coordination may also give more degrees of freedom in policy making, because other authorities and countries cannot act as a 'free rider'. Also R & D and mass production may benefit from economies of scale. Local economic objectives are depicted in the second quadrant. This relates both to increasing employment in the city and to an improvement of the social economic structure of the population by keeping the higher income classes in the city. Both the spatial and parking policy (quadrant 3) will largely influence the future of transport. A compact city - which is an important policy objective - may result in less mobility (shorter distances) and more public transport use (Nijkamp and Rienstra [7]); the parking policy is one of the most important local instruments to influence urban car use. Finally, the public transport policy - being an important policy field - is presented in the last quadrant. This policy relates both to the operation subsidies (influencing the fares) and the investments in high quality infrastructure (metro, rapid trams, light rail). Scenarios can now be constructed by combining points on each axis, which are subdivided into five points; the inner and outer points are presenting desirable developments, while the inner points present more moderate developments. In this way the most important future developments and background factors influencing the future of the urban transport system can be determined; other developments can be deduced

4 158 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century by means of logical reasoning. It is assumed that the urban transport system - and the role of the electric car - depends on the developments on the axes. It may be clear that in this way thousands of scenarios can be constructed. To make a choice, some existing scenarios have been used as a starting point. For the first quadrant this holds for scenarios of the Dutch Planning Bureau [8], which describe policy packages within different regimes of European coordination and national acceptance of transport policy measures. For local developments, scenarios of the municipal Department of Economic Affairs [9], and the Department of Environmental Affairs [10] have been used as an input. All these ideas have been adjusted and interpreted in a flexible way. Now, we will turn to a description of the four scenarios used; the reference year is Scenarios for Amsterdam's Transport System 3.1 Prosperous Amsterdam In the scenario 'Prosperous Amsterdam' all policy levels aim at achieving economic growth. Transport is seen as a means to stimulate this, so little measures are taken to reduce mobility growth. The development on the axes of the Spider model are presented in Figure 2. Figure 2: The scores in the Scenarios 'Prosperous Amsterdam' ( ) and 'Sustainable Amsterdam' ( -)

5 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century The development of the spider factors The national economy will develop positively, but only measures which have already been announced nationally nowadays will be introduced. Also the European cooperation will be limited. Therefore, mobility growth will be high while long distance public transport use will reduce, especially because of cuts in subsidies and the continuing privatization. Also the local economy - and therefore employment - will develop very positively, which holds for the development of Schiphol Airport, the services sector in Amsterdam South and industrial developments in Amsterdam North. Economic activities will shift out of the centre, due to accessibility problems; the centre will mainly become a shopping and 'fun' area (cinemas, pubs). As a result, higher income classes will have many employment possibilities, while new housing areas for these groups are provided in new suburbs around the city. In order to build these residential and business areas, the compact city policy will be abolished and old living quarters will be revitalized. Congestion will be coped with by providing new infrastructure, because mobility is seen as a necessity for achieving economic growth. For the inner city the policy is focusing on keeping it accessible. Commuter traffic will be discouraged here, and economic important traffic (goods and business transport) will get priority. The parking policy will be reorganized and will have relatively cheap short term fees, while long term parking will be reduced to the maximum extent by high fees. Urban public transport will be seen as necessary to reduce urban congestion. Therefore, operation subsidies and infrastructure investments will be partly taken over by the local authorities. New infrastructure will mainly be built to connect business areas; new residential areas will be spatially diffuse and therefore not attractive for public transport systems The role of the electric vehicle The (inter)national environment will provide little incentives for using electric vehicles (little road pricing, fuel price increases and coordination of R & D). Local authorities will neither give much priority to the electric vehicle, because no impact is expected on economic growth. To a small extent, however, the car can be used as a feeder for the public transport system. However, for long distance transport the system will have a lower quality, so that the range of the electric vehicle is an important problem. As a result, the conventional car will still dominate the modal split. 3.2 Sustainable Amsterdam In this scenario all policy levels aim at achieving sustainable economic growth, while there is at the same time a strong European coordination of measures. The resulting scores on the axes are presented in Figure 2.

6 160 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century The development of the spider factors The EU will coordinate transport and environmental measures. Strict standards for emissions will be agreed, fuel prices will rise and policies aiming at spatial concentration will be promoted and subsidized. Nevertheless, Schiphol Amsterdam Airport will rapidly grow, although transit traffic will be reduced and aeroplanes will become more environmental friendly. HST services will also become important for distances up to 500 km; in total the growth in air traffic will be lower, without drastic economic impacts. Amsterdam North will attract many small scale and labour intensive industrial activities, polluting industries will not be tolerated here. The resulting environmental friendly image will attract many new activities. Also Amsterdam South will develop very positively, having positive impacts on employment levels for both low and high educated people. Because of the environmental regulations and the compact city policy, however, some employment will shift out of the city. The compact city policy will be implemented very strictly. No new residential areas will be constructed and the built environment will become more dense. Many skyscrapers will be constructed, while several facilities (parking, shopping malls, infrastructure) will be constructed subterranean. As a result, there will be little housing possibilities for high income classes, which will partly leave the city. In addition to (inter)national road pricing measures, a system of cordon pricing will be introduced in Amsterdam. This system largely reduces car use, especially in the city centre. Parking will only be possible in commercially operated subterranean facilities, resulting in high parking fees. Public transport will become much more competitive, because of the (inter)national measures and the compact city policy, while the fees are largely subsidized. In addition, large scale investments will take place in infrastructure of metro and light rail systems. The underlying network will drastically change. Several trams and buses will still be in operation, but these will largely be replaced by shared taxi systems, transport over water, and car and bicycle rental (e.g., 'call a car') systems. As a result, car ownership will largely reduce The role of the electric vehicle The electric vehicle will be used as a feeder for the public transport system, which will be attractive for longer distances. Therefore, the range causes little problems. Also shared taxis and rented cars (depending on the distance to be driven) will mainly use electric vehicles, while transport over water takes place by electricly powered boats. The use will further be stimulated by the high conventional fuel prices and discounts on road and cordon pricing fees. In addition, economies of scale will be achieved in the production and R & D,

7 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century 161 because of the EU-coordination. In total this results in a high use of electric vehicles, while the use of conventional cars will largely reduce. 3.3 Pauperized Amsterdam In the scenario 'Pauperized Amsterdam' it is assumed that the local and regional economy will decline. At the same time the national government will aim at a sustainable transport system, despite the fact that there is little European coordination. The resulting scores on the axes are presented in Figure 3. Figure 3: The scores in the Scenarios 'Pauperized Amsterdam' ( ) and 'Lonely Amsterdam' ( -) The development of the spider factors The national government will introduce measures which will relatively little affect the Dutch competitive position. As a result, a strict spatial planning, road pricing and higher fuel taxes will be introduced, resulting in lower mobility growth and congestion. Goods, business and international traffic will be much less restricted than commuter traffic. At the same time will the national and European economic core zone shift southwards, resulting in negative economic trends in Amsterdam. Schiphol will fail to grow significantly, despite large investments of the local and regional authorities; this will also have serious negative impacts on the development of the services sector in Amsterdam South.

8 162 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century Amsterdam North will also fail in attracting new activities, due to the increasing Central European competition. As a result, there will be little employment growth and especially the higher educated - more 'footloose' - people will leave the city. The economic situation will detoriate, resulting in high unemployment, high crime levels and large budgetary problems because of the high unprofitable investments in Schiphol and the harbour area. There will be little construction of new residential areas, so that there will be no need to introduce a strict compact city policy. Due to the low economic and population growth, and the national measures, mobility growth will be low. Therefore, and in order not to hamper economic developments any further, additional policy measures will not be introduced by the local authorities. This will also hold for investments in the public transport system. Because of the worsened economic situation, the modal share of the system will nevertheless largely increase, which will be reinforced by large operation subsidies (resulting in low fees) of the national government The role of the electric vehicle There will be no European coordination of R & D and the production of electric vehicles. National measures, however, will give incentives to stimulate the use of the electric vehicle, especially by rising conventional fuel prices and possibly by discounts on road pricing fees. Local developments, however, will hamper the introduction. There will be no additional local stimulation measures, while the market (the higher income classes) will largely leave the city. As a result, the use of the electric vehicle will be very limited. 3.4 Lonely Amsterdam The scenario 'Lonely Amsterdam' investigates to which extent local authorities can introduce strict measures and stimulate the use of the electric vehicle, without much (inter)national support and measures. The resulting scenario as depicted in the Spider web is presented in Figure The development of the spider factors At the European and national level little measures will be introduced, because there will be little support in society. Only a large scale subsidizing of public transport fees (which will not face much resistance) and tax cuts for energy efficient cars will occur at the national level. Schiphol Amsterdam airport will first grow rapidly. The local authorities however, will later try to reduce its growth by introducing strict emission and noise annoyance standards. Nevertheless, the growth will positively impact the local economy. This trend is reinforced by an active local policy for attracting environmental benign activities, giving

9 Urban Transport and the Environment for the 21st Century 163 the city a 'green' image. This holds both for activities in Amsterdam South (services) and Amsterdam North (industrial activities). At the same time, a very strict compact city policy, a strict parking policy and a cordon pricing system with high fees, will make it more difficult and very expensive to locate activities in the city of Amsterdam. Because other cities will not introduce such a policy, many activities and population will shift to competing locations and residential areas, resulting in lower economic (and employment) growth and a lower share of especially higher income classes in the city. This will also result in an increase in commuter traffic from and to Amsterdam. In addition to the lower public transport fees due to the national policy, Park & Ride systems and cordon pricing will result in much lower car use in Amsterdam. At the same time much new public transport infrastructure will be introduced and the underlying network will be adapted by means of shared taxis, rental possibilities (cars, bicycles, 'call a car') and transport over water The role of the electric car The electric vehicle will be introduced to some extent, despite the fact that (inter)national policies will not be very supportive. Also a large part of the main market - higher income classes - will leave the city. The main applications will be in the rental market, call a car systems and (shared) taxi systems. The private ownership of the electric vehicle will however, be very limited. 4 Concluding Remarks The electric vehicle may significantly contribute to a reduction of environmental externalities. From the analysis it appears, that the potential role of the electric vehicle largely depends on external developments and policies. Striking is that the vehicle is not in the first place a substitute for conventional cars, but more a provider of transport from and to the main terminals of a high quality public transport system; the vehicle may then be used in private ownership, but also in car rental systems, call a car systems, transport over water etc. In this way, the range of the vehicle causes no problems and the problem of the unprofitability of the public transport system on the short distances may be partly solved. As appears clearly from the scenarios, the introduction and success of such systems will - in addition to local economic developments - be largely influenced by international, national and local policies in the fields of transport, spatial planning and environment. Here, clear choices have to be made about the future of the transport system. It can be concluded that stimulating the introduction of the electric vehicle is an attractive alternative for current policies aiming at reducing car use and increasing public transport use also on short distances.

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