2017 World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems MARKET PROFILE AND FORECAST

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1 2017 World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems MARKET PROFILE AND FORECAST

Zaloga, Senior Analyst - Missiles & UAVs (410)

David Rockwell, Senior Analyst Military Electronics

com Philip Finnegan, Senior Analyst - Defense &

2 World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems Market Profile & Forecast Steven J. Zaloga, Senior Analyst - Missiles & UAVs (410) s.zaloga1@comcast.net Dr. David Rockwell, Senior Analyst Military Electronics (703) ext drockwell@tealgroup.com Philip Finnegan, Senior Analyst - Defense & Aerospace Companies (703) ext pfinnegan@tealgroup.com homepage:

com Mid-Western Region David Conklin 8031 Buckland Dr. Cincinnati, OH 45249 (513) 247-9350 dgconklin@tealgroup.com Western Region & Asia-Pacific Pravin Parmar 2618 E. First St.

3 Main Office 3900 University Dr. Suite 220 Fairfax, VA (703) (703) fax Sales Offices: Eastern Region Doug Cornell 2503 Carol Place Falls Church, VA (703) Mid-Western Region David Conklin 8031 Buckland Dr. Cincinnati, OH (513) Western Region & Asia-Pacific Pravin Parmar 2618 E. First St. Long Beach, CA (562) Europe & Middle East Monika Cornell 2503 Carol Place Falls Church, VA (703) Briefing Book Series Defense & Aerospace Agencies Briefing Defense & Aerospace Companies Briefing International Defense Briefing Military Electronics Briefing World Missiles & UAVs Briefing World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing World Power Systems Briefing (Aero) World Power Systems Briefing (I&M) World Space Systems Briefing Weekly Newsletter Defense Business Briefing Sector Studies Business Aircraft Briefing World Military UAS Market Profile & Forecast World Civil UAS Market Profile & Forecast World Space Mission Model Spreadsheet Products Aircraft Market Forecast & History Missiles & UAVs Market Forecast Teal Group Corporation ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

4 Executive Overview... 1 The Market Outlook... 1 World UAS Budget Forecast (excluding US classified budget)... 3 World UAS Budget Forecast (including provisional US classified budget)... 3 World Production Forecast by Type... 4 World UAV Production Forecast by Region... 4 Study Parameters... 4 Forecast Assumptions... 5 Cost Evaluation... 6 Military UAS Profile... 8 Civil UAVs The Numbers Mini-UAV Production Forecast by Region Small Tactical UAV Production Forecast by Region Tactical UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region Naval UAVs Production Forecast Summary by Region MALE UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region HALE UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region UCAV Production Forecast Summary by Region Civil Government, Commercial & Consumer UAVs The US UAV Market...19 The Market Outlook Past as Prologue US Department of Defense UAV Funding History DoD UAV Categories US Military UAV Inventory Trends US UAV Inventory (1 Apr 2014) US DoD UAV Budget Forecast US UAV Production Forecast Program Profiles US Micro/Mini UAVs US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21 Blackjack STUAS RQ-7A Shadow Tactical UAV RQ-8 Fire Scout VTUAV US Navy UAV Programs RQ-1 Predator /MQ-9 Reaper Air Force Next Generation UAS (NGUAS) MQ-25 Stingray (CBARS) RQ-4 Global Hawk UCAVs European UAV Market...55 Market Overview Current European Military Programs European UAV Production Forecast by Type Country Profiles Armenia Austria Azerbaijan... 58

5 Page ii Belgium Belarus Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia European Union/NATO Finland France Georgia Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom Rest of the World UAV Market Market Overview Middle East Middle East UAV Production Forecast by Type Bahrain Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria United Arab Emirates Africa African UAV Production Forecast by Type Algeria Angola Botswana Ethiopia Ivory Coast

6 Page iii Kenya Libya Morocco Nigeria South Africa Sudan Tunisia Yemen Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific UAV Production Forecast by Type Australia Bangladesh China India Indonesia Japan Kazakhstan Korea, North Korea, South Malaysia Myanmar New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam The Americas Americas UAV Production Forecast by Type Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador Mexico Panama Venezuela UAV Munitions Overview Electro-Optical/Infrared Sensors Market Overview High Altitude Endurance (HALE) EO/IR Sensors USAF Global Hawk Basic and Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suite (EISS) USAF Global Hawk Follow-On EO/IR Sensors USAF Next-Generation HALE EO/IR Sensor Suite Navy MQ-4C Triton MTS-B & AN/DAS-X Sensor Suite USAF Classified Stealthy UAV EO/IR Sensors (RQ-170/RQ-180/TR-X) Coast Guard Deepwater Endurance UAV EO/IR Sensor

7 Page iv Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance EO/IR Sensors Predator & Predator B/Reaper AN/AAS-52 MTS-A & AN/DAS-1/4 MTS-B (Multi-spectral Targeting System) & Future MALE EO/IR Sensor US CBP/USCG Guardian/Predator B AN/DAS-1(V) MTS-B (Multi-Spectral Targeting System) USAF MQ-X/Next Generation MALE UAV EO/IR Sensor US Army Gray Eagle AN/DAS-2(V) Common Sensor Payload (CSP) Predator XP EO/IR Sensors FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Star SAFIRE 380HD Lockheed Martin INFIRNO UTC Aerospace (UTAS) DB-110 & MS-110 EO/IR Pods Rafael RecceLite & Recce-U EO/IR Pods US Navy MALE TERN (Tactically Exploited Reconnaissance Node) Sensors Wide FOV (WFOV) EO/IR Sensors USAF Reaper Gorgon Stare & Classified WFOV EO/IR Sensors US Army/USAF UAV ARGUS-IS USAF ARGUS-IR Predator C Avenger Wide Field of View (WFOV) Sensor Logos Technologies Redkite & LEAPS & Kestrel & WAMI Sensors US Marine Corps RQ-7 Shadow Wide Focal Plane Array Camera (WFPAC Wolfpack ) US Marine Corps RQ-7 Shadow WASPS (Wide Area Surgical and Persistent Surveillance) AWARE (Advanced WFOV Architectures for Image Reconstruction and Exploitation) Hyperspectral EO Sensors Global Hawk SPIRITT & USAF Hyperspectral Systems USAF Predator ACES Hy Hyperspectral Imager US Army RQ-7 Shadow AURORA & Navy/Army Hyperspectral Imagers UCAV EO/IR Sensors USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV EO/IR Sensors US Navy MQ-25 Stingray CBARS & UCLASS & UCAS-D EO/IR Sensors Tactical UAV EO/IR Sensors US Navy/US Coast Guard MQ-8B/C Fire Scout EO/IR Sensors US Army/USMC RQ-7 Shadow V2 MX-10 EO/IR Sensors US Army/USMC RQ-7 Shadow V1 POP 200/ US Army Hunter Raven Eye II/MOSP United Technologies (UTAS) SWIR (Short-Wave IR) Sensors US Navy & Army MRMUAS & MRMP EO/IR Sensors Small Tactical UAV EO/IR Sensors US Navy/USMC RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator Multi 8000 EO/IR Sensor ScanEagle Alticam EO and IR Sensors ScanEagle ViDAR Optical Radar Gremlins and Swarming Small UAV EO/IR Sensors US Special Operations Command NightEagle EO/IR Sensor Mini-UAV EO/IR Sensors AeroVironment Raven & Wasp & Puma Mantis EO/IR Sensors FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Duo EO/IR Camera US & Available International Mini-UAV EO/IR Sensors Air Force Desert Hawk (was Sentry Owl) EO Sensors RQ-11 Raven Photon IR Sensor US Marine Corps Dragon Eye ThermoVision Micron IR Sensor US Navy & US Army FCS Class I RQ-16A T-Hawk MAV EO and IR Sensors Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) EO/IR Sensors

8 Page v Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) EO/IR Sensors Synthetic Aperture Radars Market Overview SAR Technology SAR Market SAR Program Forecasts Market Shares High Altitude Endurance (HALE) UAV Radars USAF Global Hawk AN/ZPY-2 MP-RTIP NATO Global Hawk AGS/MP-RTIP USAF Global Hawk HISAR USAF Global Hawk Follow-On SAR Next-Generation HALE UAV SAR US Navy MQ-4C Triton AN/ZPY-3 Multi-Function Active Sensor (MFAS) USAF Classified Stealthy UAV SARs (RQ-170 & RQ-180 & TR-X & B-21) USCG Deepwater Endurance UAV ISAR Medium Altitude Endurance (MALE) UAV Radars USAF Reaper & Predator XP AN/APY-8 Lynx SAR & Future MALE SAR US CBP Predator B AN/APY-8 Lynx SAR US CBP/USCG Guardian SeaVue SAR Predator B/Guardian Future MALE Maritime Radar USAF MQ-X/Next-Generation MALE UAV Radar US Army Gray Eagle AN/ZPY-1 Starlite SAR US Army Predator/Sky Warrior ER/MP Lynx II SAR US Army Gray Eagle ER/MP VADER Radar Leonardo/UTC Aerospace (UTAS) TacSAR Pod (UAV) ASARS-3 (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar System) USAF Reaper Dismount Detection Radar (DDR) US Army Gray Eagle TRACER MB SAR (Multi-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar) UCAV Programs US Air Force Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV Radars US Navy CBARS & UCLASS & UCAS-D Radars Airborne Sense-And-Avoid Radars (ABSAAs) US Navy Triton Air-to-Air Radar Sub-System (AARSS) USAF Common Airborne Sense & Avoid (C-ABSAA) Predator B Due Regard Radar (DRR) US Army Ground-Based Sense & Avoid (GBSAA) European Defense Agency (EDA) MIDCAS Sense-and-Avoid Radar Tactical UAV Programs US Navy/US Coast Guard MQ-8B/C Fire Scout SARs US Army MQ-8B FCS Class 4A (Fire Scout) Lynx II SAR US Army RQ-7 Shadow SAR Army A160 FORESTER FOPEN SAR Magnetic Anomaly Detectors (MADs) MAD-XR (Magnetic Anomaly Detection Extended Role) Small Tactical/Mini/Nano UAV Programs US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator SAR ScanEagle NanoSAR & Leonardo

9 Page vi minisar microsar PicoSAR USAF Desert Owl PENRAD GPEN SAR MiniSAR SIGINT & Electronic Attack (EA) Systems Market Overview Endurance UAV SIGINT & EA Programs USAF Global Hawk/HALE & Predator/Reaper/MALE ASIP (Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload) USAF Global Hawk Hyperwide COMINT USAF Global Hawk LR-100 RWR/ESM/ELINT Navy MQ-4C Triton AN/ZLQ-1 ESM System & Follow-On SIGINT & Future Triton SIGINT Suite USAF Classified Stealthy UAV ESM/EA Systems (RQ-170 & RQ-180 & TR-X & B-21) Army Tactical SIGINT Payload (TSP) & Follow-On & Future MALE UAV SIGINT System Reaper Advanced Radar Detection System (ARDS) ELINT Pod Reaper AN/ALR-69A Radar Warning Receiver (RWR)/ESM Pod Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle Modular Multi-Function Electronic Warfare (MFEW) Pod Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle CEASAR/NERO COMINT Electronic Attack Pods US Army MQ-5B Hunter Green Dart SIGINT System Pandora Electronic Warfare (EW) System (MALE) USAF DEACON Electronic Attack Pod UCAV SIGINT & EA Programs USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV Electronic Attack (EA) System USMC UCAV Electronic Attack (EA) USMC Group 4 UAV Electronic Attack (EA) Standoff Jammers (AN/ALQ-99 & NGJ) US Navy MQ-25A Stingray CBARS & UCLASS SIGINT & Electronic Attack (EA) Navy UCAS-D SIGINT Early US Air Force/Navy UCAV Electronic Warfare Systems Tactical/Mini/Nano UAV SIGINT & EA Programs Overview US Army RQ-7 Shadow SIGINT Systems USMC RQ-7 Shadow Software Reprogrammable Payload (SRP) RQ-7B Shadow SIGINT Pod US Navy MQ-8C Fire Scout SIGINT/EW Pod DARPA CONCERTO (CONverged Collaborative Elements for RF Task Operations) US Special Operations Forces (SOF) Tactical/Mini-UAV SIGINT Sensor Pandora Electronic Warfare (EW) System (Small UAV) NanoSIGINT (Tactical/Small Tactical UAV) US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator SIGINT Payload US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) MEUAS III Small Tactical SIGINT/ELINT Sensors US Army RQ-20 Puma Mini-UAV SIGINT Sensors International UAV SIGINT & EA Programs Euro Hawk ISIS Wide Area SIGINT System UK Watchkeeper SIGINT: Soothsayer Xtender/FlyingFish Satellite Phone SIGINT System TRC 274 & TRC Top Scan Skyfix SIGINT Suite EL/K-7071 COMINT/DF & EL/L-8385 ESM/ELINT SPS-65V5 Modular EW/SIGINT Suite Skyfix COMINT/DF

10 Page vii C4I Systems Market Overview System Types Data Link Programs Global Hawk (EQ-4) Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) Global Hawk Block 30/40 C4I Systems Predator B/MALE Network Centric Communications Pod (NCCP) MUM-T (Manned-Unmanned Teaming) & VUIT USMC RQ-7 Shadow Software Reprogrammable Payload (SRP) RQ-7 Shadow Forward Airborne Secure Transmissions and Communications (FASTCOM) Next-Generation Scalable UA Mission Command System Tactical Control System (TCS) & UAV Operating Systems Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) JTIDS and MIDS Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) USAF Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link US Navy Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link US Army Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link EPLRS & SADL Improved Data Modem (IDM) CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability) Common Data Link (CDL) & Tactical Common Data Link (TCDL) Network Tactical Common Data Link-Network (TCDL-N) Tactical Common Data Link-Network (TCDL-N) Communications Data Link System (CDLS) UAS Company Profiles Overview Company Profiles Aeronautics Ltd AeroVironment Inc Aeryon Labs Inc Airbus Defence & Space (formerly European Defence and Space Co.) Aurora Flight Sciences AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group BAE Systems Baykar Bell Helicopter The Boeing Co CAE Inc China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp Dassault Aviation Denel Pty. Ltd Diehl Defence GmbH & Co. KG DJI Innovations Elbit Systems Ltd EMT Ingenieurgesellschaft FLIR Systems, Inc General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc Griffon Aerospace Honeywell International Inc Insitu Inc Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd Kaman Corp

11 Page viii Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd Korean Air Aerospace Business Division Korean Aviation Technologies Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc L-3 Technologies Leonardo (formerly Finmeccanica) Lockheed Martin Corp MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Ltd Northrop Grumman Corp Piaggio Aerospace Prioria Robotics Raytheon Company Rheinmetall AG Rockwell Collins, Inc Rolls-Royce Safran Schiebel Elektronische Geraete GmbH Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation Stark Aerospace, Inc Swift Engineering, Inc Teledyne Technologies Inc Textron Systems Unmanned Systems Thales Turkish Aerospace Industries Uconsystem Co. Ltd UMS Skeldar VT Group Appendix US DoD 10-Year UAV Funding History Summary RDT&E by Service Procurement by Service Appendix US DoD Prime Contracts

Executive Overview The Market Outlook In terms of worldwide military budgets, the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) segment promises to be one of the most dynamic growth sectors, continuing the past

12 Executive Overview The Market Outlook In terms of worldwide military budgets, the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) segment promises to be one of the most dynamic growth sectors, continuing the past decade s rapid spending growth. The unclassified sector will continue to increase over the next decade, by about 36%, from current annual spending on RDT&E and procurement of about and Afghanistan and incorporate UAVs into their forces (see Figure 1). The introduction of speciallybuilt unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs) also promises to drive growth over the next decade. Now, for the second year Teal Group has separated all civil government and commercial UAVs into a separate study in recognition of the usually on a fiscal-year basis. Production value, covered in the numerous tables in this study, represents the value of UAV systems delivered during a particular calendar year. In rough terms, the funds procured during one-year result in delivered" units the following year or after. The most significant catalyst to this market has been the enormous Figure 1 $9.6 billion in FY18 to about $13 billion in FY27. If operations and maintenance expenditures were to be added, these totals would be even greater. This future military growth is being driven by the adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) worldwide. Over the next decade, US procurement will grow modestly. Growth will increasingly shift towards international markets as more militaries adopt the lessons of Iraq strong potential for the future as airspace begins to open worldwide. We have included a brief summary of those findings here. Please note that in our tables and charts procurement and production value are two different, but related numbers. Procurement, covered in the budget forecasts here, represents the annual amount of production funding included in a particular country s annual defense budget, growth of interest in UAVs by the US military, tied to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the general trend towards information warfare and net-centric systems. UAVs are a key element in the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) portion of this revolution, and they are expanding into other missions as well with the advent of hunter-killer UAVs.

Executive Overview Page 2 Our research suggests that the US will account for 57% of the unclassified R&D spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 32% of the unclassified procurement

13 Executive Overview Page 2 Our research suggests that the US will account for 57% of the unclassified R&D spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 32% of the unclassified procurement through the forecast decade. These played by the US in RDT&E and procurement in the UAV field, and the general trends in world defense spending mentioned earlier. Teal Group expects that the sales of UAVs will follow recent patterns Figure 2 US UAV funding shares for R&D and procurement represent smaller shares of the market compared to defense spending in general. The US accounts for about 64% of total worldwide R&D spending and 38% of procurement spending, according to Teal Group s International Defense Briefing forecasts. These percentages change significantly when adjustments are made for US classified UAV development and procurement funding (see Figure 2). The value of these black programs can only be surmised, with our estimates serving as a likely upper end of the range of potential secret monies. With these assumptions, the US accounts for 76% of the world R&D on UAVs and 49% of the procurement. This difference is due to the heavier US investment in cutting-edge technologies and the marked lagtime in such research and procurement elsewhere, especially major aerospace centers such as Europe. This follows trends in other cuttingedge technologies observed over the past decade by Teal Group analysts in such areas as precision-guided weapons, information and sensor technology, and military application of space systems. A tangible example of the black UAV budget in the US is the RQ-170 Sentinel program which only came to light when one of the stealth drones came down in Iranian territory. If our funding forecasts for "black" classified programs are removed, the US share for RDT&E falls to 57% and for procurement to 32% of the world share, which is incongruous in view of the leading role of high-tech arms procurement worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific area representing the second largest market, followed by Europe. Indeed, the Asia-Pacific region may represent an even larger segment of the market, but several significant players in the region, namely Japan and China are not especially transparent about their plans compared to Europe. As in the case of many cutting edge aerospace products, Africa and Latin America are expected to be very modest markets for UAVs. Some warnings are needed when viewing the summary tables and charts here. There appear to be wide swings and dips in unit acquisition over the forecast decade, that is not

Primary energy. 8 Consumption 9 Consumption by fuel. 67 th edition

Primary energy. 8 Consumption 9 Consumption by fuel. 67 th edition Primary energy 8 Consumption 9 Consumption by fuel 67 th edition Primary energy Consumption* Growth rate per annum Million tonnes oil equivalent 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 217 26-16 Share 217