Jo Van Biesebroeck K.U.Leuven. Report prepared for the Research Round Table Stimulating low carbon vehicle technologies
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1 Jo Van Biesebroeck K.U.Leuven Report prepared for the Research Round Table Stimulating low carbon vehicle technologies Report prepared for the Research Round Table Stimulating low carbon vehicle technologies of the Joint Transport Research Centre of the OECD and the International Transport Forum Paris, February 2010
2 Counterfactual simulations of the impact of policy instruments on fuel use in the motor vehicle sector require knowledge of several primitives: iti Consumers Purchase a vehicle (LT) Decide the intensity of use of their vehicles (ST) Producers Invest in technology to determine a fuel efficiency frontier (LT) Offer models along the frontier (ST)
3 Short term demand dfor fuel conditional on (i) the stock of vehicles, (ii) commuting patterns, Inelastic, even less elastic than in 1970s Important heterogeneity both in level and slope Demand for fuel efficiency enters the vehicle purchase decision (long term effects) Again, heterogeneous in the population Does not seem constant over time
4 Vehicle market Fuel market (conditional on vehicle ownership) P FUEL heavy driver P FUEL D 1 D 2 D' 2 d 1 d' 2 d 2 1/MP$ Q FUEL
5 Vehicle market Fuel market (conditional on vehicle ownership) P FUEL green consumer P FUEL D' 2 D 2 D 1 d 1 d' 2 d 2 1/MP$ Q FUEL
6 Elasticity of demand for most fuel efficient model variant with respect to the fuel price (conditional on model purchase) 0 Fuel effi ciency parame eter in vehicle demand USA Belgium
7 Elasticity of demand for most fuel efficient model variant with respect to the fuel price (conditional on model purchase) (Retail) Fuel price relative to January 2000 Fuel effic ciency parame eter in vehicle demand USA 1 Belgium
8 Vehicle market Fuel market (conditional on vehicle P FUEL higher P FUEL P FUEL D 1 d 2 d 1.5 P 2 d 1 P 1 1/MP$ Q FUE
9 Where do we stand? 1. Need to take consumer heterogeneity into account in estimation, but also in counterfactual t simulation 2. Need to take interrelation between vehicle use and vehicle choice into account, going beyond a representative consumer 3. Need to model more explicitly how consumers trade off money spent on purchase price now and money spend on fuel in the future
10 Short term: production possibility bl frontier There is a trade off between fuel efficiency and other desirable vehicle characteristics Determined by technology Long term: technological lchange Firms invest in new technologies to shift out this frontier Higher efficiency has become possible at a cost (diesel, hybrid technology) without sacrificing features
11 fuel efficiency car 1 car 2 other characteristics (i (size, power, safety, )
12 These issues matter greatly for demand d estimation The frontier interferes with the identification strategy t for demand as fuel efficiency is endogenous and strongly correlated with other features As fuel prices change and consumers implicit price for fuel efficiency (in terms of other characteristics) varies, firms will update the position of their models along the frontier
13 These issues matter greatly when the supply side is incorporated in the model Firms do not count in mpg, but in dollars. They position products where profits are highest. The cost curve associated with fuel efficiency is only one element entering their behavior Innovation is a strategic decision and should not be analyzed in a single agent decision model with an exogenous cost function for mpg improvements.
14 Where do we stand? 1. Need to take introduction of models, modelvarieties, or vehicle characteristics into account. Fuel efficiency supply will not lie along the technologically ll determined d cost curve 2. Should not characterize the supply of fuel efficiency in a single agent framework
15 Where do we stand? I hesitate to quote numbers from the literature Two key suggestions 1. Introduce consumer heterogeneity For example, using annual mileage data 2. Augment the cost function for fuel efficiency with a behavioral model of how vehicles are positioned along the fuel efficiency frontier by strategic firms Even with some (strong) functional form assumptions
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