Graphically Characterizing the Equilibrium of the Neoclassical Model

Transcription

1 Graphically Characterizing the Equilibrium of the Neoclassical Model ECON 30020: Intermediate Macroeconomics Prof. Eric Sims University of Notre Dame Spring / 28

2 Readings GLS Ch. 15 GLS Ch. 16 For now, ignore parts related to money supply and nominal variables 2 / 28

3 Neoclassical Model The optimizing model of the economy with which we have been working is sometimes called the neoclassical model or real business cycle model The model features optimizing agents and frictionless markets It emphasizes supply shocks (changes in A t or θ t ) as the principal drivers of fluctuations in endogenous variables As written, it abstracts from money and nominal variables. In this model, the classical dichotomy holds, so this is okay We take the model to be a relevant description of the real world in the medium run frequencies of time between a couple of years and a decade 3 / 28

4 Equilibrium Conditions In equilibrium, the following conditions must hold: C t = C d (Y t G t, Y t+1 G t+1, r t ) N t = N s (w t, θ t ) N t = N d (w t, A t, K t ) I t = I d (r t, A t+1, f t, K t ) Y t = A t F (K t, N t ) Y t = C t + I t + G t First four are optimal decision rules of household and firm; fifth is a technological constraint (production function), and sixth is resource constraint / market-clearing condition Exogenous variables: A t, A t+1, G t, G t+1, K t, θ t, f t. Endogenous: C t, N t, I t, Y t, w t, and r t Treat Y t+1 as pseudo-exogenous : not affected by I t, which impacts K t+1. Medium run assumption: treat capital stock as roughly constant 4 / 28

5 Graphical Analysis Want to graphically summarize these equations IS curve: set of (r t, Y t ) pairs where household and firm behave optimally with respect to consumption and investment demand and income equals expenditure Summarizes consumption function, investment demand function, and resource constraint Y s curve: set of (r t, Y t ) pairs where household and firm behave optimally, labor market clears, and production function holds Summarizes labor supply, demand, and production function General equilibrium: on both IS and Y s curves simultaneously 5 / 28

6 IS Curve Same as before, just another expenditure category Start by writing total desired expenditure as: Y d t = C d (Y t G t, Y t+1 G t+1, r t ) + I d (r t, A t+1, f t, K t ) + G t Impose that Yt d = Y t Graph the set of (r t, Y t ) pairs where this holds 6 / 28

7 Expenditure vs. Income dd dd = CC dd ( GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr tt ) + II dd (rr tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt ) + GG tt Slope = MPC < 1 EE 0 = CC dd ( GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr tt ) + II dd (rr tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt ) +GG tt 7 / 28

8 Income Equals Expenditure dd dd = dd = CC dd ( GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr tt ) + II dd (rr tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt ) + GG tt YY 0,tt YY 0,tt 8 / 28

9 The IS Curve dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 1,tt + II dd rr 1,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 2,tt + II dd rr 2,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt rr 2,tt > rr 0,tt > rr 1,tt rr tt rr 2,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt IIII 9 / 28

10 IS Curve Shifts The IS curve will shift if any exogenous variable relevant for desired consumption or investment change, as well as changes in government spending Shifts: At+1 : IS shifts right ft : IS shifts left Gt : IS shifts right (via earlier arguments) Gt+1 : IS shifts left Kt : IS shifts right 10 / 28

11 The Y s Curve Begin by plotting labor demand and labor supply. Find the N t where these intersect Given this N t, determine Y t from the production function r t irrelevant for labor demand, supply, and the production function under our assumptions: Y s curve is still vertical as in endowment economy Could generate an upward-sloping Y s curve, and some role for IS shocks, if we considered effect of r t on labor supply 11 / 28

12 Labor Market ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt ) rr tt rr 2,tt ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt ) NN 0,tt AA tt FF(KK tt, ) 12 / 28

13 Production Function ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt ) rr tt rr 2,tt ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt ) AA tt FF(KK tt, ) YY 0,tt NN 0,tt 13 / 28

14 The Y s Curve ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt ) rr tt YY ss rr 2,tt ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt ) AA tt FF(KK tt, ) = YY 0,tt NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 14 / 28

15 Shifts of the Y s Curve The Y s curve will shift if any exogenous variable relevant for the positions of the labor demand, labor supply, or production functions changes Shifts: At : Y s shifts right θt : Y s shifts left Kt : Y s shifts left 15 / 28

16 Bringing it All Together In equilibrium, economy must be on both the IS and Y s curves Intersection jointly determines Y t, r t, N t, and w t Figure out split between C t and I t, given Y t and r t, by looking at consumption and investment demand functions 16 / 28

17 General Equilibrium dd dd = dd = CC dd ( GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr tt) + II dd (rr tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt) + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss ww 0,tt rr 0,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt) IIII = AA ttff(kk tt, ) NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 17 / 28

18 Working Through Effects of Changes in Exogenous Variables A t, θ t, and K t affect the position of the Y s curve A t+1, f t, G t, G t+1, and K t affect the IS curve Figure out how Y s and IS curve shift, determine new r t. Use this to figure out how other endogenous variables react A complication arises: changes in I t affect K t+1, which affects Y t+1, and hence C t We ignore these effects size of capital stock is large relative to investment, and in medium run can treat capital stock as approximately fixed (unlike long run where we study capital accumulation) Y t+1 will therefore only be affected by changes in exogenous variables dated t + 1: A t+1 and G t+1. Pseudo-exogenous in sense we will treat it as unaffected by time t exogenous shocks 18 / 28

19 Supply Shock: A t, Pre-Shock Equilibrium dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss ww 0,tt rr 0,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA 0,tt, KK tt) IIII = AA 0,ttFF(KK tt, ) NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 19 / 28

20 Supply Shock: A t Y s Shift dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss YY ss ww 1,tt ww 0,tt rr 0,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA 1,tt, KK tt) NN dd (ww tt, AA 0,tt, KK tt) IIII AA 1,ttFF(KK tt, ) = AA 0,ttFF(KK tt, ) NN 0,tt NN 1,tt YY 0,tt YY 1,tt 20 / 28

21 Supply Shock: A t r t adjustment dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss YY ss ww 1,tt ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA 1,tt, KK tt) NN dd (ww tt, AA 0,tt, KK tt) IIII AA 1,ttFF(KK tt, ) = AA 0,ttFF(KK tt, ) NN 0,tt NN 1,tt YY 0,tt YY 1,tt 21 / 28

22 Supply Shock: A t New Equilibrium dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 1,tt dd dd = + II dd rr 1,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss YY ss ww 1,tt ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA 1,tt, KK tt) NN dd (ww tt, AA 0,tt, KK tt) IIII AA 1,ttFF(KK tt, ) = AA 0,ttFF(KK tt, ) NN 0,tt NN 1,tt YY 0,tt YY 1,tt 22 / 28

23 Demand Shock: f t Initial Equilibrium dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 0,tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss ww 0,tt rr 0,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt) IIII = AA ttff(kk tt, ) NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 23 / 28

24 Demand Shock: f t IS Shift dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 0,tt, KK tt + GG tt dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 1,tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss ww 0,tt rr 0,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt) IIII IIII = AA ttff(kk tt, ) NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 24 / 28

25 Demand Shock: f t r t Adjustment dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 0,tt, KK tt + GG tt dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 1,tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt) IIII IIII = AA ttff(kk tt, ) NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 25 / 28

26 Demand Shock: f t New Equilibrium dd dd = dd = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 0,tt, KK tt + GG tt YY dd tt = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 1,tt + II dd rr 1,tt, AA tt+1, ff 1,tt, KK tt + GG tt YY dd tt = CC dd GG tt, +1 GG tt+1, rr 0,tt + II dd rr 0,tt, AA tt+1, ff 1,tt, KK tt + GG tt ww tt NN ss (ww tt, θθ tt) rr tt YY ss ww 0,tt rr 0,tt rr 1,tt NN dd (ww tt, AA tt, KK tt) IIII IIII = AA ttff(kk tt, ) NN 0,tt YY 0,tt 26 / 28

27 Supply versus Demand With a vertical Y s curve, output is completely supply-determined Demand shocks (shocks which shift the IS curve) affect composition of output and r t, but not the level of output Neoclassical model thus emphasizes supply shocks (productivity and labor preference) as chief source of fluctuations Can get demand shocks to impact output if Y s is upward-sloping (because interest rate affects labor supply), but doesn t change fact that model still needs to be predominantly driven by supply-shocks to make predictions which are more or less consistent with data 27 / 28

28 Qualitative Effects of Changes in Exogenous Variables Exogenous Shock Variable A t θ t f t A t+1 G t G t+1 Y t C t + - +? - - I t + - -? - + N t w t r t Do not consider changes in K t shifts both Y s and IS curves, and can only consider reductions in K t (e.g. natural disasters, wars) 28 / 28