Australian Biofuels

Transcription

1 Early Bird Discountdate extended to 16 July, 2010 Australian Biofuels Study Prospectus Australian Biofuels

2 Australian Biofuels Study Prospectus June, 2010 Dear Client, Welcome to Australian Biofuels As with our previous reports, Australian Biofuels will provide an overview of the Australian biofuel industry as at mid Over the past five years, the annual Australian Biofuels client study has become a leading reference on the status of the Australian biofuel industry. It is a reference used by biofuel producers, biofuel buyers, government departments and agencies, trading houses, investment banks, infrastructure participants, vehicle manufacturers, agriculture business, and shipping companies to name a few. This year the study contains two sections. The first section relates to the STATUS OF THE BIOFUEL INDUSTRY and addresses the state of the international and the Australian biofuel industry. It contains our in depth analysis of the Australian ethanol and biodiesel industries as well as a review of the status of the international biofuel markets. The second section is devoted to FEATURE COMMENTARY and ANALYSIS. The purpose of this Section is to provide dedicated analysis of specific issues confronting the Australian biofuel industry - for example, are mandates actually working and what has been their impact to date? These are issues which have gained prominence over the past twelve months and are likely to continue to develop over the next few years or longer. This will be the fifth client study on the biofuel industry by APAC Biofuel Consultants. Over that time APAC has continue to build up a large data base and develop models for analysis. We offer continuity and understanding of the industry having an extensive background in the oil and gas industry. We maintain regular contact with customers and industry participants and actively try to widen our network across the range of industry players - from universities to end users. APAC continues to conduct a wide range of studies for clients, participate in Bioenergy Australia, present at biofuel conferences in Australia and Asia, and advise boards and industry executives. The topics and a list of figures and tables covered in the two Sections of Australian Biofuels are set out below. Please contact either of the undersigned if you wish to subscribe or complete the Study Order Form on page 7. remain committed to supporting participants, and to provide ongoing support in biofuel trading, marketing, business development, strategy, government policy and risk management. Yours sincerely, Mike Cochran Graeme Bethune Joint Director Joint Director Ecco Consulting Pty Ltd EnergyQuest Pty Ltd Ph: (08) Ph: (08) Mob: Mob: mcochran@eccoaustralia.com gbethune@energyquest.com.au Australian Biofuels

3 Australian Biofuels This study addresses the 10 essential questions regarding the Australian biofuel industry. 1. THE INDUSTRY: What is the future of biofuels in world markets? How has the biofuel industry emerged in Australia over the last twelve months following the GFC? How do international agencies view the future of biofuels? 2. WHAT S CHANGED: What is new in the Australian biodiesel and ethanol industry? Any new investment on the horizon? 3. AND FEEDSTOCKS: Can Australian producers meet the increased ethanol demand? Is there sufficient feedstock(s) to meet mandates? 4. COMMODITY PRICES IMPACT: What new challenges are biofuel producers facing - with the changes in world oil prices and feedstock prices; competition from imports; change in government policy? What are the feedstock cost and price margins? 5. THE FUTURE: What is the current and forecast production capacity for ethanol and biodiesel in Australia? How is each producer performing? What about feedstock availability? 6. COMPETITION: Where is the competition of biofuels coming from? Will we see more imports? Do overseas subsidies assist imports? 7. GOVERNMENT POLICY? What is the status of the new excise system for biofuels? What are the signals from the Federal and State governments regarding biofuels? What assistance is on offer? What is the status of mandating three years on? (FEATURE ANALYSIS) 8. CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE GROWING? Is consumer acceptance growing? What has been the expansion of distribution of ethanol and biodiesel? How have consumers responded? What about the resource sector s interest in biofuels? What are the strategies of the major oil companies and independents regarding biofuels? 9. NEXT GENERATION FEEDSTOCKS. (FEATURE ANALYSIS) What have been the recent developments (e.g. algae, pongamia)? What are their prospects for Australia? How is Australia fairing with its research? Are next generation feedstocks the answer? 10. NEW INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS: What are the new potential investments in the Australian biofuel sector? How clients use Australian Biofuels The 2009 study provided a concise snapshot of the rapidly evolving Australian biofuels marketplace which is has helped us to better understand the quickly evolving market and served as a useful reference. (Oil major, Australia,) Australian Biofuels 2009 was used for the ACCC s 2009 Monitoring Report. (ACCC, 2009) Australian Biofuels

4 SECTION 1 BIOFUEL INDUSTRY STATUS World Biofuel Industry Overview Biofuels world status World biofuels post GFC World ethanol and biodiesel production 2009 Key international developments Industry prospects Australian Liquids Fuel Balance Australian Biofuels Study Outline Fuel security, transport fuels Australia s gasoline and diesel consumption fuel balance, imports Impact of biofuels on Australian transport fuels consumption Australia s biofuel overview Overview Changes since 2009 Report Biodiesel - production and demand 2009 Ethanol production and demand 2009, and growth New developments and emerging trends ethanol and biodiesel Ethanol in Australia Ethanol projects and production capacity to 2015 Feedstock requirements Apparent feedstock availability Feedstock prices and petrol pricing Import parity price Ethanol Projects company review* Biodiesel in Australia Biodiesel projects and production capacity to 2015 Feedstock requirements Apparent feedstock availability Feedstock prices and diesel pricing Biodiesel imports, pricing, and issues (special review) Biodiesel Projects company review* Governments and Australian Biofuels Federal Government activities - new excise, grants, policies State Government activities - mandate status, new emerging policies Impact of ethanol mandates on demand, supply, fuel imports Government supported projects Fuel quality developments Australian Biofuels

5 Consumer acceptance in Australia Overview Biofuels distribution roll-out and expansion status Role of majors and independents Biodiesel markets and roll-outs Other blends E85 and biodiesel * Review of Australian biofuel plants - operating and planned suppliers covering: Planned developments Location, history and status Capacity, feedstock requirements Preferred Feedstocks/buying arrangements Offtake arrangements, co-products; Other relevant commercial information SECTION 2 FEATURE ANALYSIS Mandates- are they effective? An in-depth analysis discussing how mandates work; are they working for the industry and/or the motorist; government policy implications; impact on fuel price; what happens if ethanol demand outstrips supply; impact of imports; countering government policies. Next generation biofuel feedstock developments is Australia leading the way? What next generation feedstocks is Australia researching? What is the status of development of next generation feedstocks for biodiesel (algae, pongamia, mustard seed, and others) and ethanol? Biofuels for aviation developments that might impact on Australian aviation Over the past two years we have been hearing about biofuels based jet fuels. How is jet fuel derived from biofuel? Is it sustainable? Australian vehicle manufacturers and biofuels Australian vehicle manufacturers are becoming more active in the biofuel space over the past 12 months. What is happening and how will they influence the Australian market? Status of competitive transport fuels for biofuels in Australia Petrol and diesel remain the dominant transport fuels which are reliant on oil. What other petrol and diesel replacement feedstocks are emerging in Australia? Consider LPG, diesel and jet from the Fischer Tropsch (FT) conversion of syngas from coal (coal to liquids), gas (gas to liquids), shale (shale to liquids), liquefied natural gas (diesel replacement) and LPG, all of which are non-renewable but compete with biofuels. Are biofuels being left standing at the start line? Australian Biofuels

6 Section 1 Figures include Status of biofuel production capacity world wide Global biofuel output and supply forecast EU biodiesel capacity and estimated production, Australian crude oil and product balance, 2008/09 averages Australian oil and products demand and supply outlook Australia s increasing import dependence on key transport fuels Australian gasoline sales and imports,2009 Gasoline and ethanol blended sales by State, Australian diesel sales and imports, Australian diesel sales by State Australian total biofuel capacity Australian biofuel production vs. capacity, 2009 Forecast ethanol mandated demand and production capacity, Forecast biodiesel mandated demand and production capacity, Australian ethanol projects forecast capacity by plant, Status of existing and planned Australian ethanol production, Map showing location of ethanol plants in Australia, 2010 Estimated feedstock requirements to meet Australia ethanol capacity, Ethanol feedstock costs relative to petrol TGP, January 2003 to present Australian biodiesel projects forecast capacity by plant, Status of existing and planned Australian biodiesel production, Map showing location of biodiesel plants in Australia, 2010 Estimated feedstock requirements to meet Australia biodiesel capacity, Biodiesel feedstock price relative to diesel TGP, January 2003 to present. Section 1 Tables include World biofuel production, 2009 World ethanol production by country, 2009 World biodiesel production by country, 2009 Australian ethanol plants, status and forecast capacities, Ethanol plants in Australia - feedstock sources and co-location benefits Apparent ethanol feedstock surplus/deficit in Australia, Import parity price for ethanol - average March to May 2010 Australian biodiesel plants, status and forecast capacities, Biodiesel plants in Australia - feedstock sources and co-location benefits Apparent Australian feedstock surplus/deficit for biodiesel, Number of retail outlets offering E10, by state and supplier Australian Biofuels

7 Australian Biofuels Study Order Form Report Fee (excluding GST) Payment by Cheque or Direct Fee (excluding GST) Payment by Credit Card Single User (single copy) A$3,290 A$3,340 Early Bird (before 16 July, 2010) A$2,790 A$2,840 Corporate (two copies) A$4,900 A$4,970 Corporate (more than two copies) POA Australian Biofuels is researched and prepared by *. The Study is an update of key industry information contained in corresponding sections of our major client study Biofuels in Australia. A Growing Sector (2006) and our follow up client reports on the Australian biofuel industry in , and Name Position Organisation Office Address Office Telephone Mobile Phone Pay by: Visa: MasterCard: Expiry Date:.../... Card Number Name on Card Signature Direct Payment Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Adelaide Ecco Consulting Pty Ltd BSB: Account#: Send or order form to: APAC Biofuel Consultants Attn: Mike Cochran Ecco Consulting Pty Ltd 8 Chelmsford Ave MITCHAM South Australia 5062 Phone: Mob: +61 (0) biofuels@eccoaustralia.com * (BN ) is a joint venture of EnergyQuest Pty Ltd (ABN: ) and Ecco Consulting Pty Ltd (ABN ). Graeme Bethune is the CEO of EnergyQuest and Mike Cochran the CEO of Ecco Consulting. Australian Biofuels

8 Study Team Mike Cochran Mike Cochran brings to the study experience in commercialisation processes, business development and commodity marketing in the oil, gas, petroleum, and resource sectors. Mike has developed a specialisation in the biofuel sector in Australia and Asia and has undertaken consulting assignments with governments, oil companies, energy trading companies, agriculture trading companies, biofuel producers, investment banks, infrastructure sector, and local governments. He has an understanding of the commercial and trading environment and requirements to establish green field projects, especially relating to biofuels, energy, commodities, trading and overseas markets. In 2004 Mike established Ecco Consulting Pty Ltd to provide marketing, negotiation and commercial services to the gas, petroleum, and resource industries in Australia and overseas. Ecco Consulting has successfully established excellent working relationships and engaged in assignments with large Australian and overseas resource organisations, government and banks. Ecco has consulted in crude oil marketing and operations, research and analysis for alternative liquid fuels, infrastructure representation, biofuels client (including investment) studies and commercial negotiation facilitation. Prior to establishing Ecco Consulting Pty Ltd, Mike has held various commercial and marketing positions, at senior level, with some of the world s largest resource and petroleum organisations - BHP, Rio Tinto (CRA, Mary Kathleen Uranium, Bougainville Copper Ltd) and 22 years with Santos Ltd. Mike has a degree in Economics from Sydney University and post graduate Diploma of Oil Supply and Refining - validated by the University of Oxford. He is also a Board member of the Australian Institute of Energy and Australian LPG. Dr Graeme Bethune Graeme Bethune is CEO of EnergyQuest, which he established in 2005 to provide strategic research on Australian oil, gas and other energy sources. EnergyQuest s clients include major Australian companies, most Australian governments, institutional investors and a number of international companies. EnergyQuest also produces the EnergyQuarterly, which provides comprehensive and timely analysis of oil and gas production, reserves, development projects and gas contracts in Australia. The company has also undertaken major multi-client studies of coal seam methane and biofuels and provided strategic advice on acquisitions and major energy contracts. Prior to establishing EnergyQuest, Graeme had 30 years in senior finance and corporate affairs roles. For 10 years he held a range of senior positions with the Australian energy group, Santos, reporting to the CEO, responsible for finance, business development, investor relations and media. This included over $2 billion of major financing and asset acquisitions and divestments. Graeme has a first-class honours degree in economics from Monash University and a PhD from the Australian National University. He has undertaken the executive program at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University and is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia. Susan Bethune Susan Bethune is a partner in EnergyQuest, responsible for market analysis. Susan has 30 years experience in economic and financial analysis with the Commonwealth government, the finance sector and the tertiary education sector. She has an honours degree in economics from Macquarie University and a Masters degree in economics from the Australian National University. Australian Biofuels