Newbuildings & Yards 2 June 218 Marine Money Week New York Prepared by Angelica Kemene Head of Market Analysis & Intelligence
Sectors: Cycle Position May 218 % deviation from earnings average 29-218 China Newbuilding Price Index Clean Products(MR) Aframax -76.4% -17.93% 12 Suezmax -85.81% Tanker Markets have turned weak Handysize TC Average VLCC -18.9% 8.47% 1 Supramax TC Average Panamax TC Average -.65% 7.38% 8 Capesize TC Average Bulk carrier & Container rates improve further after the extremely weak 216 Neo-Panamax 9 teu -2.66% 4.55% 6 CNDPI CNTPI CNCPI Containership 44 teu gls -33.48% Feeder Containership 17 teu grd 5.44% -15% -1% -5% % 5% 4 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 % change in average earnings from the 29-218 average Source Data: CNPI
Newbuilding Prices out of the bottom - Bulkers 81K DWT Panamax Bulkcarrier NB Prices 61-64K DWT Supramax NB Prices $ Mln 9 6 $ Mln 8 Nominal Inflation adjusted 5 7 6 4 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 Nominal Inflation adjusted 1976 1982 1988 1994 2 26 212 218 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2 23 26 29 212 215 218
Newbuilding Prices - Tankers Suezmax Tanker 156-158K DWT Newbuilding Prices Products Tanker 47-51K DWT Newbuilding Prices 16 $ Mln Suezmax Tanker 156-158K DWT Newbuilding Prices 14 inflation adj Suezmax NB price 12 7 6 5 1 4 8 6 3 4 2 Nominal Inflation adjusted 2 1 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2 23 26 29 212 215 218 1986 199 1994 1998 22 26 21 214 218
Newbuilding Prices - Containers Containers 17 TEU Newbuilding Prices Containers 88 TEU Newbuilding Prices
Base Payment Terms What about options placement? Bulk Carriers Payment Term 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% Key Point Contract Signing Steel Cutting Keel Laying Launching Delivery Months Before Delivery 24 12 6 3 Oil Tankers Payment Term 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% Key Point Contract Signing Steel Cutting Keel Laying Launching Delivery Months Before Delivery 24 14 8 4 Containers Payment Term 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% Key Point Contract Signing Steel Cutting Keel Laying Launching Delivery Months Before Delivery 24 12 7 4 Source Data: Optima Shipping Services, CNPI
Yards revenue and deliveries in the 3 major sectors Bulkers, Oil Tankers & Containers: Deliveries vs Yard revenue 8, Million $ Million DWT 16 7, 6, Sum of Deadweight (rhs) $ million 14 12 5, 1 4, 8 3, 6 2, 4 1, 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218
A shift towards Chinese Ship Yards Major Shipbuilding Countries Current Orderbook % Products Tanker Crude Oil Tanker Container Bulk Carrier % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% China, People's Republic Of Korea, South Japan Others For the 3 major sectors there are currently 188 active yards of which 35% is expected to deliver their final order this year, whilst 78% of them will deliver their final order until the end of 219. In 27 285 yards received more than 1 order, while in 217 91 yards received more than 1 order A decrease of 68%. Inability to secure orders at a profit. Issue: Yard Consolidation China: Plans on structural reform 216-22 in shipbuilding industry China s top 1 stateowned shipbuilders will be responsible for 7% of the country s new tonnage by 22. Japan follows the trend (capacity cuts & mergers), but S. Korea remains skeptical. Cost increase: steel prices, labor cost, exchange rates. The extra cost can be balanced if builders charge higher.
Asset Play with Newbuildings Older years vs 218 Asset play was always on the table, but times have changed. Market dynamics have altered: financing, new regulations, shorter cycles, AI Need for access to capital, buy fleets instead of a ship, flexibility for financial structuring The asset play in newbuildings is a different game now.
Sectors: Fleet Age Profile Bulk Carriers: Existing Fleet Age Profile Tankers: Existing Fleet Age Profile VLCC/ULCC 165 263 144 122 16 Suezmax/LR3 18 184 117 8 23 Aframax/LR2 175 325 296 126 5 Panamax/LR1 56 147 19 39 7 MR1/MR2 431 528 457 144 1 Handysize 133 163 214 111 78 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% -4 yrs 5-9 yrs 1-14 yrs 15-19 yrs 2 yrs & over
Sectors: Fleet Age Profile Containers: Existing Fleet Age Profile Contracting Pace in major sectors No of Contracts 15, + TEUs 88 7 8 18 16 12,-14,999 TEUs 8,-11,999 TEUs 198 86 196 135 188 1 196 14 12 1 No expectation to return to firm levels though 6,-7,999 TEUs 9 84 1 67 1 8 6 3,-5,999 TEUs 78 337 414 183 76 4 Feeder 287 39 94 473 817 2 % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% -4 yrs 5-9 yrs 1-14 yrs 15-19 yrs 2 yrs & over 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Bulk Carrier Containers Crude Oil Tanker Products Tanker
Forward Delivery Schedule No of vessels 25 OrderBook as % of the fleet 2 15 1 218 219 22 221 222 Bulk Carriers OB: 14.5% Capes 8.6% Pmax 5.5% Supras 5.4% Hsize 5 Capesize Panamax BC Supramax Handysize VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax Tanker LR2 LR1 MR/Handy Post Panamax Container >15, TEU Bulk Carriers Oil Tankers Containers Neo Panamax 12-14.9k TEU Neo Panamax 8-11.9 TEU 3-7.9k TEU Feeder < 3k TEU Oil Tankers OB: 15% VLCCs 8.5% Suezmax 13.2% Afras 9%Pmax 11% LR2 7% LR1 8% MRs/Handies Containers OB: 2.2% >8K TEU 1.14% 3-7.9K TEU 9% Feeders
Orderbook Accuracy & Slippage Bulk Carriers Orderbook Containers Orderbook 4 35 3 Mll DWT 218 slippage at 2% of 218 orders For the 219 51.3% of the orders have not yet started 1 Mll DWT 9 8 7 218 slippage at 12% of 218 orders For the 219 56.4% of the orders have not yet started 25 6 2 5 15 4 3 1 2 5 1 218 219 22 221 222 218 219 22 221 222 Bulkers On Order Building Bulkers On order not yet started Containers On Order Building Containers On order not yet started Source Data: Optima Shipping Services
Orderbook Accuracy & Slippage Crude Oil Tankers Orderbook Product Tankers Orderbook 3 Mll DWT 9 Mll DWT 25 2 15 1 5 Crude Tankers On order not yet started Crude Tankers On Order Building 218 slippage at 27.3% of 218 orders For the 219 72.5% of the orders have not yet started 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Product Tankers On order not yet started Product Tankers On Order Building 218 slippage at 3% of 218 orders For the 219 51% of the orders have not yet started 218 219 22 221 222 218 219 22 221 222 Source Data: Optima Shipping Services
Orderbook Replacement Tonnage in Mll DWT SOx Orderbook vs Vessels age above 2 years old Orderbook vs Vessels age above 15 years old 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Crude Tankers Product Tankers Bulkers Containers Crude Tankers Product Tankers Bulkers Containers age above 2 yrs old Orderbook age above 15 yrs old Orderbook Source Data: Optima Shipping Services
Orderbook Replacement Tonnage in Mll DWT SOx Tier 2 Delivery 219 22 Retrofit like 2 nd hand market Wait and see attitude SOx compliance Scrubber Ready marginally the majority of the orderbook Scrubber Fitted
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Up to 3mbd of HSFO bunker demand may be displaced Global Residual Fuel Oil demand by sector Bunker Demand Source Data: Shell International According to SHELL, the transition to.5% Sulphur will cause more changes to global marine industry that the switch to the.1 Sulphur fuel in the ECAs. The impact of this transition represents approximately 75% of global marine fuel demand when compared to the demand of ECA.
Who will convert, finally? Alternative fuels are likely to be a more viable option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers are more suitable for larger vessels due to their increased fuel consumption and benefits of economies of scale. Each vessel is different, so specific studies on each should be made. An additional hidden cost is the approximately 2% additional energy needed to run a scrubber. Cheap Fuel Oil in 22 will not guarantee cheap HSFO bunkers: Logistic Margin: maintaining HSFO infrastructure will become a lot more expensive. Inelastic Demand: a number of suppliers have already advised owners and operators looking to use scrubbers in 22 to lock up their volume now so they can ensure future supply. Blended fuels will be considered a very attractive option and may be cheaper than MGO. The price of MDO today might be the best indicator for foreseeing the complying diesel oil price in 22. Some oil majors have indicated that the price for low Sulphur HFO would be somewhere between the current HFO and MDO prices. Naturally, nobody knows what the actual prices at that time will be. Doing nothing is not an option IMO, BIMCO, INTERTANKO, ICS are all united and the flag states are on board for the end results, although the means to get there are not clear. Source Data: Eikon Reuters
$/tn $/Day Is there a real impact in vessel earnings? Bunker Prices vs Vessel Earnings 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 TC Rate Pmax TC Rate Afra MDO Spore IFO 38 Spore 14 12 1 8 6 4 Limited evidence fuel costs impact vessel earnings However, they do impact voyage costs We would expect some extra 1knot speed (slow steaming) reduction to appear if fuel costs soar to high levels. Expectations are that since the 2H 219 the shipping and the refining market will start seeing changes in fuel demand, supply and prices. Currently, swap curves for middle distillates and fuel oil are in backwardation implying that the IMO22 has not yet invaded into the oil market. But it will soon do! No move yet into longer term supply contracts. 1 Source Data: Shell International 2 Fuel Oil Forward curve, $/tonne Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Source Data: Eikon Reuters