FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL OILSEEDS Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu 515-294-815 edyucard@iastate.edu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 511-17 17 (515)294-1183 1183 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu
International Macroeconomic Outlook Percent Growth of GDP Deflator Real GDP Growth Per Capita Percent Change in Exchange Rate Argentina, Brazil, China and EU-15
Percent Growth of GDP Deflator 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Argentina Brazil China EU 15
Real GDP Growth Per Capita 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Argentina Brazil China EU 15
Percent Change in Exchange Rate 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Argentina Brazil China EU
International Oilseeds Outlook World South America China European Union Canada Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Palm Oil
World Oilseed Area Thousand Hectares 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Palm Kernel
World Oilseed Prices (CIF Rotterdam, Hamburg) Dollars per MT 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower
World Vegetable Oil Prices (FOB Rotterdam, Hamburg) Dollars per MT 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Palm Oil
World Protein Meal Prices (CIF Rotterdam, FOB Hamburg) Dollars per MT 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower
World Soybean Production 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China Argentina ROW
World Soybean Consumption 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil EU China Argentina ROW
World Soybean Meal Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China EU ROW
World Soybean Oil Consumption 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China EU India ROW
World Soybean Sector Net Trade 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybeans Soymeal Soyoil
Argentina and Brazil Soybean area expansion Development of soybean yields Domestic crush and export of soybeans Domestic utilization of soybean meal Argentina s sunflower sector Area development Seed and meal exports
Soybean Area in Argentina and Brazil Thousand Hectares 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil
Soybean Yields in Argentina and Brazil MT per Hectare 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil
Argentine Soybean Production, Crush, and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
Argentine Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 3, 3, 25, 25, 2, 2, 15, 15, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Brazilian Soybean Production, Crush, and Net Trade 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
Brazilian Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 4, 35, 3, 25, 25, 2, 15, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Argentine Sunflower Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 8, 7, 6, 5, MT per Hectare 2.5 2. 1.5 4, 3, 2, 1, 1..5. 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield
China Area shares of oilseeds Soybean production and use Development of soybean imports Vegetable oil consumption Rapeseed production and use
Chinese Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans Peanuts
Chinese Soybean Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 12, MT per Hectare 2.2 1, 2. 8, 1.8 6, 1.6 4, 1.4 2, 1.2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 1. Area Yield
Chinese Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Chinese Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Chinese Per Capita Oil Consumption KG per capita 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.. 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soyoil Sunoil Rapeoil Peanut Oil Palm Oil
Chinese Soybean Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Chinese Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Chinese Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
European Union Total oilseed area Rapeseed and sunflower areas Domestic crush and net trade of oilseeds Import of soybeans vs. soybean meal Production, consumption and net trade of rapeseed and sunflowers
EU Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans
EU-15 Soybean Production, Consumption and, Net Trade 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 35, 25, 15, 5, -5, -15, -25, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Soybean Meal Imports vs. Soybean Imports 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Imports Soybean Imports
EU Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 2, 17, 14, 11, 8, 5, 2, -1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
EU Vegetable Oil Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Food Use Industrial Use
EU-15 Sunflower Seed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU Sunflower Seed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5-1,5-3, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Canada Development of Canola Sector Rapeseed area development Expected yields Domestic crush and net trade of canola Rapeseed meal and oil exports
Canadian Rapeseed Area and Yield Thousand Hectares MT per Hectare 6, 2. 1.8 5, 1.6 4, 1.4 1.2 3, 1..8 2,.6 1,.4.2. 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Yield
Canadian Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 12, 6, 1, 5, 8, 4, 6, 3, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Sunflower area and yield Future of the crushing industry Domestic use of protein meals Import of soybean meal
CIS Sunflower Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, MT per Hectare 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16. Yield Area
CIS Sunflower Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 14, 3, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Palm Oil Developments in Malaysia and Indonesia World palm oil trade
Malaysian Palm Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 25, 2, 18, 2, 16, 14, 15, 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Indonesian Palm Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 25, 2, 18, 2, 16, 14, 15, 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Palm Oil Net Trade 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Indonesia Malaysia China EU India
Thank You
Soybean Complex Rotterdam Prices Dollars per MT 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Soymeal Soybean Oil
Rapeseed Complex Hamburg Prices Dollars per MT 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Rapeseed Meal Rapeseed Oil
Sunflower Complex Rotterdam Prices Dollars per MT 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Sunflower Seed Sunflower Meal Sunflower Oil
Export Production Ratio of Major Soybean Exporters Percent 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil United States
Soybean Crush in Major Importing Countries 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 EU China Japan
Major Soybean Exporters 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Argentina Brazil
World Vegetable Oil Production 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Palm Oil
Brazilian Soybean Oil Production, Consumption and Exports 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Exports
Argentinean Sunflower Production, Crush, and Exports 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Exports
Argentinean Sunflower Meal Production and Utilization 7, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Exports
Argentinean Sunflower Meal Exports and EU Imports 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentinean Exports EU Imports
Argentinean Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Exports
Graphic from: Feedstuffs vol. 72, # 4
Chinese Cultivated Area Thousand Hectares 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Chinese Total Sown Area Thousand Hectares 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
EU Soybean Market Soybean Imports Soybean Meal Imports Soybean Crush Meal Oil Soybean Meal Use Soybean Oil Use Soybean Production Soybean Oil Exports
EU Soybean Market Soybean Imports Soybean Meal Imports Soybean Crush Meal Oil Soybean Meal Use Soybean Oil Use Soybean Production Soybean Oil Exports
EU Soybean and Meal Imports 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Soybeans
EU Soybean Production, Consumption and, Net Trade 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU Oilseed Meal Trade 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, -3, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
EU Soybean Crush and Imports 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Crush Imports
EU Protein Meal Utilization 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
EU Soybean Meal Utilization and HPAU 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand HPAU 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization High Protein Animal Units
EU Soybean Oil Production, Utilization, and Net-Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16-2 Production Utilization Trade
EU Rapeseed Meal Production, Utilization and Net-Trade 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
EU Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, -1,5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans
EU-15 Soybean and Meal Imports 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Soybeans
EU-15 Oilseed Meal Trade 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
EU-15 Soybean Crush and Imports 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Crush Imports
EU-15 Protein Meal Utilization 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
EU-15 Soybean Meal Utilization and HPAU 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand HPAU 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization High Protein Animal Units
EU-15 Soybean Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU-15 Sunflower Oil Production, Utilization and Net-Trade 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, -1,5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
EU-15 Vegetable Oil Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Food Use Industrial Use
EU New Member States Oilseed area Rapeseed, sunflowers, soybeans Development of domestic crushing industries Feed and industrial utilization of protein meals Food consumption and industrial uses of vegetable oils
EU New Member States Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU New Member States Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 MT per Hectare 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield
EU New Member States Sunflower Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 1,4 MT per Hectare 2.2 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield
EU New Member States Rapeseed Oil Production and Use 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Industrial Use Food Use
EU New Member States Oilseed Production and Protein Meal Net Trade (Production) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (Trade) 8 4-4 -8-1,2-1,6-2, -2,4-2,8-3,2-3,6-4, -4,4-4,8-5,2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Production Rapeseed Production Sunflower Production Soymeal Net Trade Rapemeal Net Trade Sunmeal Net Trade
EU New Member States Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
EU New Member States Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2-2 -4 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU New Member States Sunflower Production, Crush and Net Trade 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
EU New Member States Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2-2 -4 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU New Member States Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 5 4 3 2 1-1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
EU New Member States Soybean Production, Crush and Net Trade 15 1 5-5 -1-15 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
EU New Member States Soybean Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
CIS Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
CIS Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
CIS Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2-2 -4 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Canadian Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Canadian Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
CIS Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 2, 1,5 1, 5-5 -1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
Asian Soybean Imports 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Japan South Korea Taiwan