Multipurpose & Heavy-Lift Fleet Update BreakBulk Europe 2016 26 th May 2016
Agenda: No let-up: MPV/HL Fleet still under siege Vessel Supply Multipurpose vessels and project carriers Cargo Demand Dry cargo demand, General cargo demand and Project cargo Sector Competition Handy bulk carriers and Container vessels Market Outlook Challenges and conclusions 2 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Vessel Supply
Vessel Supply MPV Fleet age profile ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 4 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Vessel Supply MPV Fleet age profile by vessel type ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 5 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Vessel Supply MPV orderbook / delivery schedule (no. of vessels) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 6 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Vessel Supply MPV & HeavyLift demolitions ( 000 dwt) Average age of demolitions (years) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 7 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Vessel Supply Fleet development to 2018 ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 8 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Vessel Supply Fleet development by vessel type to 2018 ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 9 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Cargo Demand
Cargo Demand Key Drivers World economic growth (% change) World economic growth (% change) Crude oil price Dubai ($/bbl) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 11 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Cargo Demand Development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 12 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Cargo Demand Development of General cargo demand (million tonnes) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 13 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Cargo Demand Development of MPV market share (million tonnes) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 14 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Sector Competition
Sector competition Drewry all earnings index Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 16 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Sector competition Weighted East-West Container rates ($ per TEU) Estimated bulkcarrier time charter rates ($pd) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 17 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Sector competition One year timecharter rates ($pd) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 18 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Market Outlook
Market outlook Supply vs Demand balance Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 20 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Market outlook Supply vs Demand Index Projected movement in rates Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 21 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016
Market Outlook Forecast for the MPV Fleet 2016 expected to be another difficult year 2017 unlikely to see significant increase before second half 2018 hoping to turn a corner Factors affecting the forecast Global trade growth weak throughout 2016, principally due to slowdown from China but also low oil price and little investment. Competing sectors struggling with weak cargo demand, likely to encroach further into MPV share of general cargo MPV sector disproportionally losing market share Total MPV fleet supply forecast growth at just 0.3%pa but the project carrier segment is much stronger at almost 4%pa over the period
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