MARSEILLE MARITIME 28 Global Oil&Gas Tanker Outlook ( and just a few words on containerships) Ralph Leszczynski Marseille, 16 September 28 banchero costa research www.bancosta.it - research@bancosta.it
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Crude Oil Tankers banchero costa
Baltic Tanker Indices (Dirty and Clean) - 1 YEAR 2,5 2, Baltic Indices 1,5 1, 5 9-27 11-27 1-28 3-28 5-28 7-28 9-28 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index The tanker market was on a positive trend over the last 12 months
Baltic Tanker Indices (Dirty and Clean) - 1 YEARS 3,5 3, 2,5 Baltic Indices 2, 1,5 1, 5 9-1999 9-2 9-21 9-22 9-23 9-24 9-25 9-26 9-27 9-28 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index Long term, it remains relatively stable (apart from the strong volatility )
14, Baltic Tanker Indices vs. Baltic Dry Index 12, 1, Baltic Indices 8, 6, 4, 2, 9-1999 9-2 9-21 9-22 9-23 9-24 9-25 9-26 9-27 9-28 Baltic Dry Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index The spread between dry and tanker indices has never been as great as this year
6 World Seaborne Crude Oil Trade (estimates, in thousands barrels per day) 5 Thousands barrels daily 4 3 2 1 +7.1% +9.9% +4.5% +2.2% +2.4% +2.8% +4.% -3.5% -3.% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 (e) 28 (f) Crude Oil Trade Y-o-Y Growth
2 VLCC Tanker Trading Fleet (Estimate, in total DWT) 175 15 mln DWT 125 1 75 5 25 +3.1% +3.5% +4.1% +4.5% +2.9% +3.9% +.1% -2.3% -1.3% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 (f) VLCC Tanker Fleet Y-o-Y Growth
75 Suezmax Tanker Trading Fleet (Estimate, in total DWT) 6 mln DWT 45 3 15 +2.3% +4.3% +3.6% +4.2% +7.6% +5.1% +4.6% +3.3% -5.% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 (f) Suezmax Tanker Fleet Y-o-Y Growth
1 Aframax Tanker Trading Fleet (Estimate, in total DWT) 8 mln DWT 6 4 2 +.8% +3.8% +8.2% +5.4% +6.2% +6.2% +5.8% +8.7% -.1% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 (f) Aframax Tanker Fleet Y-o-Y Growth
15% VLCC Fleet Growth v. Crude Oil Trade (Estimates of percentage year-on-year changes) percentage change year-on-year 1% 5% % -5% 7.1% 3.1% -2.3% -3.5% -3.% -1.3% 9.9%.1% 3.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.9% 4.% -1% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Trading VLCC Tanker Fleet
1 8 6 4 2 banchero costa VLCC Tanker (2,-35, dwt) Age Profile number of vessels 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) Newbuilding
15% Suezmax Fleet Growth v. Crude Oil Trade (Estimates of percentage year-on-year changes) percentage change year-on-year 1% 5% % -5% 7.1% 2.3% -3.5% -5.% 4.3% -3.% 9.9% 3.6% 4.2% 4.5% 7.6% 5.1% 4.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.3% 4.% -1% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Trading Suezmax Tanker Fleet
6 5 4 3 2 1 banchero costa Suezmax Tanker (12,-199,999 dwt) Age Profile number of vessels 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) Newbuilding
15% Aframax Fleet Growth v. Crude Oil Trade (Estimates of percentage year-on-year changes) percentage change year-on-year 1% 5% % -5% 7.1%.8% -.1% -3.5% 3.8% -3.% 9.9% 8.2% 5.4% 4.5% 6.2% 6.2% 5.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 8.7% 4.% -1% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Trading Suezmax Tanker Fleet
12 1 8 6 4 2 banchero costa Aframax Tanker (78,-119,999 dwt) Age Profile number of vessels 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) Newbuilding
2 China - Seaborne Crude Oil Imports (customs data, in million tonnes gross) 18 16 14 million tonnes 12 1 8 +31% +35% 6 4 2-8% +7% +3% +14% +12% +15% 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28(f) Crude Oil Imports Y-o-Y Growth Growth rates in Chinese oil imports have been in double digits this decade, albeit quite volatile
5 China - Comparison of Iron Ore and Crude Oil Imports (customs data, in million tonnes gross) 4 mln tonnes per year 3 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28(f) Iron Ore Imports Crude Oil Imports Chinese oil imports have grown strongly this decade, although less steeply than iron ore imports
Volume Increase in Refinery Capacity 2-27 (estimates, in million barrels per day) China 1.8 USA 1. Middle East.9 India 1. Other Asia Europe.5.6 Africa Other Americas.2.3 -.5 Japan It increased capacity more than any other region this decade, and more is to come in the next few years
Share of World Petroleum Products Consumption in 26 (source: BP Energy Review) India and Other Asia 14% Africa 3% Other Americas 11% USA 26% Japan 6% China 9% Middle East 7% Europe (inc. Russia) 24% It still accounts for less than 1% of oil consumption, whilst having one fifth of the world s population
12, World's Top 1 Net Oil Importers in 26 (source: eia) 1, Thousand barrels daily 8, 6, 4, 2, USA Japan China Germany Korea France India Italy Spain Taiwan And yet, China still imports four times less oil than the USA, and only twice more than Italy or Spain
Chinese oil production and consumption in mln tonnes 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 China - Crude Oil Production and Consumption (estimates, in mln tonnes) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28(f) Consumption Production Chinese oil demand growth is fast outstripping domestic production, increasing reliance on imports
1,2 USA, 123 Number of Vehicles per 1 People over 16 y.o. (source: abc news) no. of cars every 1 people over 16 y.o. 9 6 3 France, 72 Japan, 68 India, 11 China, 9 Just immagine if every Chinese had a car...
LNG Carriers banchero costa
5 4 3 2 1 banchero costa LNG Carrier Age Profile (all sizes) This year (28) is a peak year for newbuilding deliveries number of vessels 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Trading Orderbook
LNG Carrier Age Profile (by size range) 5 4 number of vessels 3 2 1 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21 Trading <9cbm Trading 9-2cbm Trading >2cbm Orderbook <9cbm Orderbook 9-2cbm Orderbook >2cbm And almost half of deliveries are giant ships over 2, cbm!
LNG Carrier Age Profile Pie Orderbook / Trading 47.5 % 2,8 14% 2,9 11% 2,1 5% up to 5 yrs (blt 3-7) 33% > 3 yrs (< 1977) 9% 26-3 yrs (78-82) 6% 21-25 yrs (83-87) 2% 16-2 yrs (88-92) 2% 11-15 yrs (93-97) 9% 6-1 yrs (98-2) 9% The orderbook is almost 5% of the trading fleet, and lng ships can trade well over 3 years
Global LNG Importers in 27 (% of total trade in bcm, data from bp energy review) South Korea 15% Taiwan 5% India 4% China 2% Mexico & C.Am. 1% USA 1% Spain 11% France 6% Japan 39% Other Europe 2% Portugal 1% Italy 1% Turkey 3% The bulk of imports is to East Asia, but the Mediterranean accounts for one quarter of volumes
Global LNG Exporters in 27 (% of total trade in bcm, data from bp energy review) Oman 5% Nigeria 9% Trinidad & Tobago 8% Others 2% Indonesia 12% UAE 3% Malaysia 13% Qatar 18% Egypt 6% Algeria 11% Brunei 4% Australia 9% Exports are still well diversified between South-East Asia, North Africa, the Gulf, and Central America
LNG Exporters to the Mediterranean in 27 (% of total trade in bcm, data from bp energy review) Nigeria 33% Others 2% Algeria 39% Trinidad & Tobago 5% Qatar 9% Egypt 12% Most Mediterranean imports come from North Africa (52%) and Nigeria (33%)
Containerships banchero costa
All Containership Fleet (1+ TEU) (fleet capacity in ' TEU, at end of year) 18 16 14 12 ' TEU 1 8 6 4 2 15.8% 13.3% 15.1% 11.7% 5.1% 9.8% 12.1% 1.5% 8.9% 9.8% 13.1% 16.6% 21.% 15.6% 13.% 11.2% 3.2% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Historical Fleet Size Projection based on Orderbook and no Scrapping Growth Y-o-Y
Comparison 1-2999 and 3+ TEU Containerships (fleet capacity in ' TEU, at end of year) 14 12 1 ' TEU 8 6 4 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 projection based on Orderbook Total Fleet 1-2999 TEU Total Fleet 3+ TEU
Containership Fleet by Size in year 22 (as percentage by TEU total) 3+ TEU 47% 1-5 TEU 3% 5-999 TEU 7% 1-1999 TEU 23% 2-2999 TEU 2%
Containership Fleet by Size in year 212 (as percentage by TEU total) 1-5 TEU 1% 5-999 TEU 4% 1-1999 TEU 12% 2-2999 TEU 12% 3+ TEU 71%
Containership 34 TEU Timecharter Rates (gr'less vessel, 1 Year TC in USD/Day) 5 4 USD/Day 3 2 1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Containership 1 TEU Timecharter Rates (grd vessel, 1 Year TC in USD/Day) 2 15 USD/Day 1 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Conclusions banchero costa
Conclusions: Crude Tanker Supply: plenty of (especially small) newbuildings! Demand: look out for China & India LNG Carriers Supply: plenty of (especially large) newbuildings! Demand: look out for just about everywhere! Containerships Supply: plenty of (large!) newbuildings! Demand: more globalisation?!?
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