DAILY MARKET REPORT 01 NOVEMBER 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : +27 11 692 4400 Fax. No. : +27 11 412 1183 Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar 14.74 14.71-0.03-0.20 Euro/Dollar 1.1337 1.1345 0.0008 0.07 Gold 1215.71 1217.92 2.21 0.18 Platinum 832.1 843.5 11.40 1.37 Brent Crude 76.47 74.62-1.85-2.42 JSE Top 40 44534 46141 1607.00 3.61 Dow Jones Indus Avg 24874 25115 241.00 0.97 The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand did come under pressure yesterday and traded as high as R14.85/$ with the stronger dollar weighing on the rand. The rand has since pulled back and is seen at R14.71/$. South African equities surged higher with the JSE Top40 ending 3.6% higher. Market was supported by Naspers which gained 9% yesterday. In the US the dollar posted some gains yesterday and traded as low as 1.1299 which was close to the lows seen in mid-august and the dollar is slightly weaker this morning. US equities posted some gains with the Dow ending 0.97% higher yesterday and this morning equity futures are also 0.25% higher. The market will look toward the non-farm payroll data due on Friday. Precious metal prices are higher this morning with gold and platinum prices 0.18% and 1.37 higher than the levels seen yesterday while Brent crude oil prices fell 2.42%. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: Weekly South African grain trade data South African vehicle sales US initial jobless claims US ISM manufacturing production
International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Dec maize 364.25 363.75-0.50-0.14 CME Mar maize 376.75 376-0.75-0.20 CME Dec wheat 497.5 503.75 6.25 1.26 KCBT Dec wheat 492.75 496 3.25 0.66 KCBT Mar wheat 519.25 520.25 1.00 0.19 Matif Dec wheat (Euro/ton) 198.75 198.5-0.25-0.13 CME Nov soybeans 836.5 834.25-2.25-0.27 Dec CME maize R/ton 2114 2106-7.20-0.34 Mar CME maize R/ton 2186 2177-8.79-0.40 Dec CME wheat R/ton 2694 2723 28.30 1.05 Dec KCBT wheat R/ton 2669 2681 12.13 0.45 Mar KCBT wheat R/ton 2812 2812-0.32-0.01 Nov CME soybeans R/ton 4531 4509-21.38-0.47 The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices traded slightly lower in the session yesterday with the harvesting of maize in the US limiting the buying interest. This morning the electronic CME maize prices are slightly higher. The weekly US export sales figures of maize to be released today are expected to range between 500 000 and 850 000 tons. The weekly US ethanol production was reported at 1.06 million barrels/day which is 35 000 barrels higher than the output reported last week. US ethanol stock slipped to 22.75 million barrels. On the technical chart for December CME we see that the market did come under some pressure breaking and closing below the40-day average. The electronic prices are looking to break above that average once again. Soybeans US soybean contracts managed some gains on some technical buying and short covering that was seen after prices traded to a 6-week low earlier. This morning the electronic CME soybean prices arte trading lower. The uncertainty with regard to future exports of US soybeans to China is still limiting some of the buying interest in US soybean futures. The weekly US export sales figures of soybeans to be released today are expected to range between 400 000 and 700 000 tons. On the technical chart for November CME soybeans we see that the market did get some support in the $8.30/bushel area once again and prices pushed higher. Key support is seen at $8.30 and $8.12 and resistance around $8.50. Wheat US wheat prices ended unchanged to slightly higher with December CME wheat once again clsoi9ng above the $5.00/bushel level. The strength of the dollar limited the gains in the market. This morning the electronic CME and KCBT wheat prices are slightly lower. The slow export demand for US wheat and the dominance of Russian wheat in the global wheat export market is limiting the buying interest in US wheat contracts. European wheat prices also fell to a 6-week low yesterday. The weekly US export sales figures of wheat to be released today are expected to range between 200 000 and 500 000 tons. 2
US rainfall forecast for the week ahead US 6-10 temperature forecast US 6-10 Day rainfall forecast 3
South African Market 31 October 2018 Maize South African maize prices opened the day lower with some buying interest that was seen after the opening with the weaker rand adding some support. December white maize started the day at R2415 and traded to a low of R2410 with some buying that was seen in the 2 nd half of the session. December white maize broke above the 40-day average and traded to a high of R2434 with the market ending the day slightly off the session highs. The weekly producer deliveries of maize for the past week was reported at 18 273 tons including 12 188 tons of white maize and 6 085 tons of yellow maize. US maize prices are slightly lower and the rand is trading at R14.71/$ resulting in slightly lower parity prices. We did see some late buying in our market yesterday on the back of a weaker rand. Isolated rainfall in the eastern parts of the country yesterday with some more rainfall possible today/tomorrow. Wheat White Maize MTM Change High Low Dec-18 2429.00 3.00 2434.80 2410.00 Mar-19 2478.00-2.00 2483.00 2464.00 Jul-19 2552.00-8.00 2557.00 2540.00 Yellow Maize Dec-18 2433.00-3.00 2436.00 2423.00 Mar-19 2484.00 1.00 2485.00 2471.00 Jul-19 2530.00-1.00 2534.00 2519.00 Wheat Dec-18 4493.00 8.00 4498.00 4470.00 Mar-19 4619.00 11.00 4622.00 4610.00 Jul-19 4673.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 Sunflower Dec-18 5118.00-7.00 5145.00 5093.00 Mar-19 5145.00 13.00 5160.00 5117.00 Soybeans Dec-18 4570.00-28.00 4608.00 4556.00 Mar-19 4689.00-29.00 4709.80 4688.00 CME Corn Dec-18 2123.00-5.00 2130.00 2110.00 Mar-19 2219.00-4.00 2220.00 2206.60 South African wheat contracts opened the day slightly lower with some buying interest that was seen after the opening with the weaker rand adding support. December wheat contracts started the day at R4470 which was also the intraday low of the session with our market posting some gains after that. December wheat broke above the 40-day average and traded to a high of R4498 with the market ending the day close to the session highs. The weekly producer deliveries of wheat for the past week was reported at 78 731 tons bringing the cumulative total for the season to date at 89 963 tons. US wheat prices are higher this morning but the rand is slightly stronger which is limiting some of the gains in the parity prices. Resistance for December wheat seen at R4500 and a break above that level could result in some renewed strength. 4
Oilseeds South African soybean contracts opened the day higher but some selling was once again seen after the opening. December soybean contracts opened the day at R4608 which was also the intraday high of the session with our market under pressure after that breaking below the 100-day average. The selling gained some momentum late in the session and traded to a low of R4556 and soybean contracts ended the day slightly off the session lows. Sunflower seed contracts opened the day lower with the lower parity prices weighing on our market at the opening. December sunflower seed contracts started the day at R5112 and traded to a low of R5093 but the market did pull off the lows with the weaker rand adding some support. December sunflower seed contracts are caught between the averages with the 100-day as support at R5063 and the 40-day as resistance at R5193. US soybean contracts are lower this morning and the rand is slightly stronger which is putting some pressure on parity prices and this could limit some of the buying interest in local oilseeds in the session today. Weather conditions Cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Dec maize prices CME Dec corn prices 5
Daily MAWZ8 Cndl, MAWZ8, Trade Price 2018/10/31, 2 415.00, 2 434.80, 2 410.00, 2 429.00N/A, N/A SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100 2018/10/31, 2 325.58 SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40 2018/10/31, 2 423.80 SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9 2018/10/31, 2 397.11 SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 200 2018/10/31, 2 235.73 2018/02/07-2018/11/14 (JHB) Price ZAR T 2 550 2 520 2 490 1 950 Auto RSI, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/10/31, 54.023 Value ZAR T 60 2 460 2 430 2 400 2 370 2 340 2 310 2 280 2 250 2 220 2 190 2 160 2 130 2 100 2 070 2 040 2 010 1 980 40 20 12 19 26 05 12 19 26 03 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 25 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 Nov 18 Auto 6
Daily CZ8 Cndl, CZ8, Trade Price 2018/11/01, 363 1 / 4, 364 1 / 4, 363 1 / 4, 363 3 / 4, +0 1 / 2, (+0.14%), SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/11/01, 363 1 / 2+, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/11/01, 366 1 / 8+, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/11/01, 368 1 / 8+ 2018/01/19-2018/11/16 (CHG) Price USc Bsh 424 420 416 412 408 404 400 396 392 388 384 380 376 372 368 368 1 / 8+ 366 1 / 8+ 363 364 3 / 4 363 1 / 2+ 360 356 352 348 RSI, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/11/01, 42.317 344 1/8 Value USc Bsh 60 42.317 40 22 29 05 12 20 26 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 29 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 20 Auto 7