Chart Discussion: Fri-02-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) Chart Discussion First 30+ Deg Day after winter in Melbourne

Transcription

1 Chart Discussion First 30+ Deg Day after winter in Melbourne 1

2 Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC 1

3 Consensus Forecast 9am Wind Direction & Speed [Days 1 to 14 for Melbourne Airport] D - 1 D - 2 D - 3 D - 4 D - 5 D - 6 D - 7 D - 8 D - 9 D - 10 D - 11 D - 12 D - 13 D - 14 D - 1 D - 2 D - 3 D - 4 D - 5 D - 6 D - 7 D - 8 D - 9 D - 10 D - 11 D - 12 D - 13 D - 14 DATE D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r D i r Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp Sp 26- Oct- 18 SW SW SW SW SSW SSE N N SW SSW WNW WNW N N Oct- 18 SW SW SW W WNW N NNE N NW SW SW WNW WSW SSE Oct- 18 S SSW SSE S SSE SSE SSW WNW WNW WNW SW SW SW WNW Oct- 18 S SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE SSW SSW WSW WSW WSW SW SW WNW Oct- 18 WSW WSW WSW WSW E N N N SW WSW SW WNW SSW SW Oct- 18 SSE SSE S S SSW S SSE N SW SSW SW NNE NNE WSW Nov- 18 N N N N N N N N S SW N SSW E N Nov- 18 NNW WNW WNW WNW WNW N N N N N SW SW S N Nov- 18 WNW WNW WNW SW WNW WNW WNW SW NW SW SW WNW N Nov- 18 N N WSW N N SW WNW SW SW SSW N N Nov- 18 N N N NNW WSW SW W WSW E SSW SSW Nov- 18 SW WNW WNW SW WSW N N S NNE W Nov- 18 SW WNW WNW SW N N N N N Nov- 18 WNW SW SW SW NW WSW SSE W Nov- 18 WNW SW SW SSE WNW N SSE Nov- 18 SW NNE N NNE SW N Nov- 18 SSE N NNE SSE SW Nov- 18 N NW N SSE Nov- 18 N EN E SSE Nov- 18 N EN E Nov- 18 SW 10

4 October 2018 rainfall 1

5 Past Week s Surface Charts 5

6 Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-02-Nov-2018 OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-02-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 6

7 Climate Indices El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole may be underway For SST Anomalies Click on: 7

8 Victorian 3-Month Outlook (DEC/JAN/FEB) The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is 0.60 (1.15 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -3.91, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0.46, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for SEP/OCT is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: Mixed OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: Mixed DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: Mixed 8

9 Melbourne 30-Day Outlook In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 36% chance of it being wet, a 33% chance of normal rainfall, and a 31% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 44% chance of warm nights, a 32% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 24% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 47% chance of warm days, a 32% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 21% chance of cool days. 9

10 BoM Climate Outlook (25-Oct) The November to January climate outlook indicates large parts of Australia are likely to be drier than average. November to January days are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average, except for areas surrounding the Great Australian Bight. 10

11 Jet Streams: Fri-02-Nov

12 MSL Pressure: Fri-02-Nov

13 Jet Streams: Sat-03-Nov

14 MSL Pressure: Sat-03-Nov

15 Jet Streams: Sun-04-Nov

16 MSL Pressure: Sun-04-Nov

17 Jet Streams: Mon-05-Nov

18 MSL Pressure: Mon-05-Nov

19 Jet Streams: Tue-06-Nov

20 MSL Pressure: Tue-06-Nov

21 Jet Streams: Wed-07-Nov

22 MSL Pressure: Wed-07-Nov

23 Jet Streams: Thu-08-Nov

24 MSL Pressure: Thu-08-Nov

25 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-08-Nov H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 25

26 Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-09-Nov-2018 to Sun-11-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26

27 Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-09-Nov-2018 to Sun-11-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27

28 Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-09-Nov-2018 to Sun-11-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 28

29 PREDICTED WEATHER For GFS, ACCESS, & ECMWF NWP models, & also CONSENSUS click on : Chart Discussion Thank You 29