WEATHER EFFECTS ON PALM OIL PRODUCTION: SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2011 AND ITS IMPACT ON PRICES A.H.LING GANLING SDN BHD ABSTRACT
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1 WEATHER EFFECTS ON PALM OIL PRODUCTION: SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2011 AND ITS IMPACT ON PRICES BY A.H.LING GANLING SDN BHD ABSTRACT The effects of adverse weather conditions in recent years on palm oil production and global supply were analysed. Palm oil production in 2010 was significantly affected by the adverse weather conditions in 2009 and The El Nino event from June 2009 to April 2010 resulted in prolonged dry weather conditions in many parts of Indonesia and Malaysia (world's major palm oil producers) which in turn resulted in significantly lower palm oil supply to the world in Malaysia suffered a decline in production (year- on-year) while Indonesia registered significantly lower production growth. The supply situation was further aggravated by the La Nina event from July 2010 to April 2011, which caused heavy rainfall and flooding in the last Q 2010 and 1st Q Palm oil production in both Indonesia and Malaysia have seen some recovery in the 1st half 2011 (especially strong in the 2Q 2011). Will the production recovery be sustained? Will the lagged effects of the last El Nino and La Nina events again affect palm oil production in the 2nd half 2011? What is the supply prospect of palm oil in the 2nd half 2011 and its likely impact on prices? PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 1
2 WEATHER EFFECTS ON PALM OIL PRODUCTION: SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2011 AND ITS IMPACT ON PRICES 1. INTRODUCTION Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, let me first thank MPOC for the kind invitation for me to participate in the coming POINTERS ON PRICE TRENDS. I shall be discussing the effects of weather changes on palm oil production. The adverse weather conditions in recent years have created havoc to the production and supply of almost all agricultural crops worldwide. It also affected the oilseeds and palm oil production which resulted in a tight supply situation and steep rises in the prices of vegetable oils in 2010 and This paper gives an in-depth analysis of the effects of weather changes on palm oil production and the use of weather-based forecasting model to predict the likely supply trends. I shall divide my presentation into 4 key areas. First, I will give a snapshot of the global palm oil production and supply scenario, then take a look at how weather changes affect palm oil production and next, the palm oil supply outlook for the balance of 2011 and beyond and lastly, its' likely impact on prices. 2. SNAPSHOT OF GLOBAL PALM OIL PRODUCTION Palm oil is today the No 1 edible oil, in term of production, in the world. It accounts for 33% of the total oils and fats (164 millions tonne) produced in the world (soyoil: 29%). It is consumed in more than 150 countries in the world notably China, India, EU, Pakistan and Indonesia. Demand remain robust and continue to grow due to rising population (projected to grow from 6.2 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050), economic prosperity of developing countries and energy consumption. Palm oil is the fastest growing vegetable oil in the world. In the last decade, it grew at an average of about 8.0% per annum (Figure 1). The total global palm oil production in 2010 was reported to be 45.6 million tonne. The production growth was extremely dynamic and help to meet the increasing demand for oils and fats in the world. The dynamic growth in recent years appear to have stalled slightly. The lower than average growth, to some extents, can be attributed to the recent adverse weather conditions encountered. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 2
3 The production growth is concentrated mainly in South East Asia, notably Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand (Figure 2). Indonesia and Malaysia together accounts for about 85% of the total world palm oil production. Indonesia is today the largest producer with 48% share against Malaysia 37%. In 2007, Indonesia over took Malaysia as the largest producer and in 2009 the largest exporter of palm oil. Thailand has emerged as the third largest producer with 1.45 million tonne in 2010 and has become a net exporter. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 3
4 Rapid area expansion in the last decade boosts global palm oil production and supply (Figure 3). Palm oil production in Malaysia increased at an average of 4% per annum while Indonesia grew at an average of 12% per annum in the last 10 years. Can this growth be sustained? Let us take a closer look at the more recent production trend. In 2010, Malaysia produced only million tonne (2009:17.58 million, 2008:17.73 million tonne). This is significant! Malaysia production suffers contraction for two consecutive years (-1.0% and - 3.3% Y-O-Y) for the first time in many years. This was due mainly to adverse weather conditions, ageing palms with limited production growth and the start of the aggressive replanting program proposed by the Malaysian government. On the other hand, Indonesia continues to register positive production growth of 4.8% in 2010 (2009: 20.9 million tonne, 2010: 21.9 million tonne) despite suffering similar weather conditions. The rapid planting in the last 5 years, increasing mature areas and rising yield of young mature areas help to offset any decline due to adverse weather conditions. The significant shift in the production epicenter to Indonesia is important as it will influence the supply equation of palm oil in the world. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 4
5 3. WEATHER CHANGES AND PALM OIL PRODUCTION Let us take a look at the occurrence of global weather phenomena and its effects on palm oil production. The El Nino phenomenon is a weather anomaly which occurs every 2 to 5 years in the equatorial Pacific basin (Table 1). When an El Nino develops, the normal pattern of rainfall and atmospheric circulation become disrupted. It results in warmer and drier than normal conditions or drought in parts of Australia, South East Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines), North western India, South eastern Africa and high rainfall or wetter than normal conditions along the west coast of tropical South America (Peru and Colombia). The occurrence in was the most severe in the 20 th century and affected crop production in many parts of the world including Indonesia and Malaysia. The and events were relatively mild but still affected crop development in some parts of the world. The La Nina phenomenon is the opposite of El Nino and it leads to colder and wetter than normal conditions or prolonged high rainfall and flooding in the same tropical Pacific basin region. TABLE 1: HISTORICAL EL NINO AND LA NINA EPISODES BASED ON ONI* PERIOD/EPISODE ONI ONI ASSESSEMENT EL NINO LA NINA 0F EL NINO 9/1977-1/ MILD 5/1982-6/ STRONG 10/1984-9/ /1986-2/ STRONG 5/1988-5/ /1991-7/ MODERATE 5/1994-3/ MILD 9/1995-3/ /1997-5/ VERY STRONG 7/1998-6/ / /2002-3/ MILD 6/2004-2/ MILD 8/2006-1/ MILD 9/2007-5/ /2009-4/ MODERATE 7/2010-4/ * Notes: ONI refers to OCEANIC NINO INDEX : based on SST threshold +/- 0.5 deg C : > 0.5 for El Nino and <-0.5 for La Nina SOURCE: CPC - NOAA PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 5
6 How adverse weather conditions affect palm oil production? Prolonged dry weather conditions: 8-16 weeks of low rainfall, frequently refer to as El Nino induced drought, caused moisture stress in palms Can affect production : some 4-6 months (bunch failure), months (floral abortion) and months (sex differentiation) after occurrence of the dry weather conditions - lagged effect on production Can reduce FFB yield up to 30% of normal depending on the severity of the drought Prolonged wet weather conditions: 8-16 weeks of heavy rainfall, frequently refer to as La Nina Can affect production: immediately - through disruptions of harvesting and logistics, some 5-6 months after occurrence through poor pollination, fruit-set and lower oil extraction - lagged effect on production Can reduce production up to 15% of normal in very severe La Nina Mild to moderate La Nina events are usually associated with high palm oil production as palms can tolerate relatively high rainfall The lagged effects of adverse weather especially rainfall on palm oil production allows the development of a weather-based yield forecasting model (Ling,1978). Careful tracking and analysis of weather data of key oil palm growing regions or countries and global weather phenomena like El Nino and La Nina can assist in the forecasting of palm oil supply trends. Will the recent El Nino affect palm oil production in 2010 and beyond? The recent El Nino episode (June 2009 to May 2010) resulted in prolonged dry weather conditions in both Indonesia and Malaysia, the two key palm oil producing countries of the world. In Indonesia, weeks of drought were recorded in parts of Sumatra (Jambi, Riau and North Sumatra) and Kalimantan (Kalsel, Kalten and Kaltim) from May to September 2009 (as illustrated in Figure 4). In Malaysia, 8-12 weeks of drought were recorded in parts of Peninsular Malaysia (Perak, Selangor and Negri Sembilan) from May to July 2009 (as illustrated in Figure 5) and in Sabah, Sarawak, Johor and Pahang from late February to April Based on the known physiological behaviours of palms, this El Nino drought will affect palm oil production some 6-12 months (that is, 1st half 2010) and again months (that is, 2nd half 2011) after the commencement of the drought. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 6
7 PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 7
8 A study of the effects of El Nino(using the Oceanic Nino Index - ONI) on CPO production(t/ha) from Malaysia (Figure 6) shows that CPO production usually declined by some 1-17% (Y-O-Y) in the year immediately following the commencement of an El Nino episode. The % decrease in yield depends on the severity of the El Nino event. The recent El Nino event which was of moderate strength reduced Malaysian CPO yield by 5.9% in It is interesting to note that the La Nina events following the El Nino did not appear to hamper production on an annual basis. In fact, the La Nina events were observed to be associated with sharp recovery of palm oil production. Higher CPO yield per ha were consistently recorded during the past La Nina episodes. Since oil palm required good rainfall for optimum production, the higher rainfall during La Nina events would definitely be beneficial to palm oil supply. This is contrary to the general belief that La Nina can adversely affect palm oil supply in a significant manner. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 8
9 It is confirmed that the recent El Nino event has adversely affected palm oil production in 2010 (especially in the 1st half) in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Malaysia production at 17.0 million tonne suffered a decline of 3.3% Y-O-Y or -5.2% of its potential estimate of 17.9 million tonne. Indonesia production at 21.9 million tonne registered a significantly lower growth of 4.8% Y-O-Y or - 6% below its potential estimate of 23.3 million tonne (Table 2). 4. SUPPLY OUTLOOK OF PALM OIL FOR 2011 AND BEYOND Based on the weather-based forecasting model, the palm oil production in 2011 are expected to recover fairly strongly (as illustrated in Figure 6). The recovery is to be expected with a La Nina episode following closely behind an El Nino. The good rainfall in 2010 and 1st half 2011 have already assisted in the sharp recovery of palm oil production in the 2Q of 2011 in both Indonesia and Malaysia. The recent El Nino episode appears to have disrupted the normal cropping pattern of oil palm and resulted in an earlier than normal peak production in May/June 2011(the normal peak is usually in September/October). Will the production recovery be sustained in the balance of 2011? The model predicts that the months lagged effect of the last El Nino drought will kick in at the 2nd half Production in Indonesia will decline in the 3Q 2011 while Malaysia will see similar decline in last Q Field observations seem to indicate prevalence of male flower cycle in the coming months. Since the recent El Nino is only of moderate strength (Table1), the residual effect of the last El Nino drought on production in the 2nd half 2011 will not be as severe as in the 1st half of We will see moderate production recovery in the 2nd half The revised weather-based palm oil supply forecasts for Indonesia and Malaysia in 2011 and 2012 are presented in Table 2. Malaysia production in 2011 is expected to recover to around 17.7 million tonne (up 0.8 million or 5.3% of 2010). Indonesia production will recover to 23.6 million tonne (up 1.7 million or 7.8% of 2010). The total palm oil production in these two countries is forecasted to grow by 2.5 million tonne. With good rainfall in 2010 and 1st half 2011 and the last residual effect of the El Nino and La Nina fading and ENSO returning to neutral conditions till end of 2011, the palm oil supply in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to resume its strong growth path in 2012 an increase of 2.6 million tonne (6.4% growth) is forecasted with most of the growth coming from Indonesia. The potential CPO production without weather or other factors for 2012 is projected to reach 45 million tonne. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 9
10 TABLE 2: PALM OIL SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR COUNTRY YEAR CPO CPO CHANGE CHANGE POTENTIAL FORECAST YOY YOY Mn T Mn T Mn T % MALAYSIA (F) (F) INDONESIA (F) (F) TOTAL (F) (F) IMPACT OF SUPPLY RECOVERY ON PALM OIL PRICES What is the impact of El Nino occurrence on prices of palm oil? An El Nino event is usually followed by a spike in palm oil prices (Ling, 2011 at POC 2011, KL). Palm oil prices reacted very strongly in the 1997/98 El Nino (up 125% in 2008). Price spikes were also observed following the mild and El Nino (up only 15%). In the most recent El Nino episode, palm oil prices rose by 60% in 2010 and peak at RM 3962 pmt in February The prices of palm oil usually undergo a retracement during or after the La Nina due to recovery of supply. The strong recovery in production in the 2nd Q 2011 (despite reasonably strong demand) has pushed the palm oil stock in Malaysia in June to slightly above 2.0 million tonne (the highest since January 2010). Stock is expected to remain more or less at the current level for the next few months before the lagged effects of the residual El Nino and the seasonal low production cycle start to reduce production and stock towards the end of the year. The 3rd month FCPO prices in the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Market have declined by 24% since its peak (RM 3962 pmt) in February 2011 (Figure 7). FCPO prices in July are currently hovering at about RM 3000 pmt level. The decline in FCPO prices was due mainly to the improving supply situation in Malaysia and Indonesia. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 10
11 Price Outlook for At the March 2011 POC, we forecasted that: "1. FCPO prices may have peaked in February The adverse weather concerns apparently may have been largely priced in. 2. FCPO prices are now undergoing corrections, retracing to RM 3400 level and may remain volatile and trading within a wide band RM until May/June Prices may then retrace further to RM 2700 pmt in 2 nd H 2011 with recovery of CPO supply. 4. Average price for 2011 will remain firm at about RM 3100 pmt (2010: RM 2701 pmt up 15%)." The above forecasts have been partially be fulfilled and will still hold true in the coming months with some minor adjustments. 6. CONCLUDING REMARKS The residual effects of the last El Nino and La Nina are fading. Weather conditions are forecasted to return to neutral conditions until end of With improved weather conditions, palm oil production have recovered strongly in the 2ndQ 2011 and will make further but moderate recovery in the 2 nd half 2011(in view of the residual effects of the last El Nino). FCPO prices in the BMD in the 2nd half 2011 may retrace further to RM 2800 pmt with ample supply and relatively high stock and trading within a band of RM pmt in the coming months. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 11
12 CPO price for 2011 will average about RM 3200 pmt (up 18% that of 2010: RM 2701 pmt). Factors which can affect the above forecasts are : weather effects on soybean production in USA and South America and prices of crude oil. By: A.H.LING Director, Ganling Sdn Bhd, Sandakan, Sabah, Malaysia lahong1@gmail.com Presented at the POINTERS 2011, MPOC, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia ( 8-13, August, 2011). Acknowledgements: MPOB, Bursa Malaysia, IPOB, Oil World, OSK Research Sdn Bhd, Plantation Companies (for rainfall data), Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, NOAA, USA. References: Ling, A.H (1978). Weather-based FFB Forecasting Model. Felda Agricultural Services Seminar, Kuala Lumpur, 1978 Ling, A. H (1979). Some lysimetric measurements of evapotranspiration of oil palm in Malaysia. Symposium on Water in Agriculture, Malaysian Soil Science Society, Kuala Lumpur. Ling, A.H (2011). Palm Oil Outlook 2011/12 - with special reference to the impact of weather changes. POC 2011, Bursa Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur (7-9 March 2011). Corley, R.H.V (1973). Oil Palm Physiology: A Review. In Advance in Oil Palm Cultivation. Disclaimer: The author has endeavored to ensure the accuracy of the data, estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation. The views expressed in no way shall be construed as guidance to trade. The author accepts no liability regarding information and forecast contained in this presentation. PALM OIL INTERNET SEMINAR (POINTERS) 2011, MPOC Page 12
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