SRF No MEMORANDUM. Project Steering Committee. Steve Wilson, Principal John Hagen, Senior Associate SRF Consulting Group, Inc.

Transcription

1 APPENDIX G

2 SRF No MEMORANDUM TO: Project Steering Committee FROM: Steve Wilson, Principal John Hagen, Senior Associate SRF Consulting Group, Inc. DATE: August 17, 2009 SUBJECT: ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SUBAREA STUDY AND TH 63 SOUTH CORRIDOR PRESERVATION PLAN: TRAFFIC FORECASTS & PLANNING-LEVEL TRAFFIC ANALYSIS RESULTS INTRODUCTION Olmsted County and e Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) initiated a study to evaluate future transportation improvement needs in an area encompassing e environs of e Rochester International Airport and e Trunk Highway (TH) 63 Sou Corridor from 48 Street Sou in Rochester to CR 120/20 Street in Stewartville. This memorandum documents e year 2040 travel demand forecasts developed for e study. These forecasts were used to identify changes in travel patterns due to e study alternatives, as well as subsequently used for traffic operations analysis. A summary of e planning-level analysis is included at e end of is memorandum, while a more detailed traffic analysis will be performed during e upcoming Task 8.0 (Alternatives Refinement and Development of Preferred Alternative). The Rochester-Olmsted Council of Government (ROCOG) maintains a travel demand model used to forecast e effects of various land use and roadway network assumptions. The model does not encompass e entire study area; consequently e forecasts include expansion of e ROCOG model in addition to using grow rate-based projections.

3 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 2 MODEL EXPANSION Figure 1 shows e general location of e study area, along wi e areas included in e ROCOG model. For is study e model was expanded to encompass e area nor of I-90 including additional zones (Transportation Analysis Zones, or TAZs), external stations and a special trip generation purpose developed by ROCOG to be used for airport trips. The model roadway system was expanded to include relevant state, county and local roadways. Modifications were needed to e TRANPLAN-based ROCOG model to accommodate e expansion. The first of ese was e refinement of e spreadsheet tool used to tabulate and format land use assumptions by TAZ. The tools were adapted to include new trip generation classifications for air cargo and air passenger terminal uses. The second of e modifications included expansion and refinement of e external-to-external trip table, which is e model component at estimates e movement of travel rough e ROCOG model area (wi no stops in e Rochester area). The table was reviewed for reasonable percentages of over all travel as well as e origin and destination patterns in e absence of more detailed origin-destination data. It was intended at e expanded ROCOG model be upgraded to e VOYAGER/TP+ platform to facilitate analysis and future model improvements. However, e results of e original TRANPLAN-based model could not be sufficiently replicated wi e new software, and e effort was set aside. Gray/green: Existing model area and/or TAZ boundary White/red: expanded model area and/or TAZ boundary Figure 1 RIA/TH 63 Area Model Expansion

4 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 3 DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS Development in e study area (see Figure 2) is focused primarily in e norern half, and along TH 63 including e airport area as shown in Table 1. Residential development is expected to increase from 907 to 1,779 dwelling units by e year 2040, most of which is expected to occur in e norwestern part of e study area. Commercial/industrial land use is expected to increase from 765,000 square feet to 2,265,000 square feet, primarily in e noreast quadrant but also in e soueast, norwest and airport areas. The souwest portion of e study (generally sou and west of e airport) is assumed to remain relatively undeveloped by The Rochester sanitary sewer system is not expected to extend roughout e souern part of e study area in e 2040 time horizon, limiting e intensity of development. Assumptions regarding land use in e airport area were based on e current master planning study for e airport. It should be noted at e model uses a 2006 base year for forecasts, and some of e development described has already taken place (particularly commercial development east of e 48 Avenue sou interchange). NW NE Airport SE Forecasts via grow rates plus model diversion Figure 2 Summary Land Use Districts

5 Table 1 Study Area Land Uses Assumptions Land Use Units Souwest Soueast Norwest Nor- Sou- Sou- Noreast Airport Total west east west Noreast Airport Total Urban MFR Dwelling Units Suburban SFR Dwelling Units , ,334 Suburban MFR Dwelling Units Twin Homes Dwelling Units Residential Subtotal Dwelling Units , ,779 Drive Thru Bank Shop Center Hi-Int Retail Office Gen Comm Industrial AirCargo Comm/Industrial Square Feet (1000's) Square Feet (1000's) Square Feet (1000's) Square Feet (1000's) Square Feet (1000's) Square Feet (1000's) ,403 Square Feet (1000's) Square Feet (1000's) ,265 Elem/Mid Sch./DayC Students/Child Hotels Lodging Units Dev. Park Acres Airport Pass. Term Enplanements Ent. Arenas Seats ,400 2,400

6 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 5 TRIP GENERATION ROCCOG developed a special generator component for e RIA land uses based on traffic counts in e existing airport area. Separate trip generation rates were developed for air passenger activity and air cargo activity. The trip rates are shown in Table 2. Table 2 Airport-related Trip Generation Rates Total Daily Study Area District Trip Rate HBW 1 HBO 2 NHB 3 Passenger Terminal % 39% 46% (per enplanement) Air Cargo % 10% 70% (per 1,000 square feet) (1) Home-based Work Trips (2) Home-based Oer Trips (3) Non-home-based Trips Overall trip generation for e study area is shown in Table 3. The study area is expected to grow by 44,450 trips between 2006 and 2040 (is includes only traffic to/from adjacent land uses, and does not include traffic passing rough e study area on TH 63 or oer roadways). Most of e new travel is expected to be to/from land uses in e norwest and noreast parts of e study area. Overall, e impact of new airport-area traffic including e air passenger, air cargo and adjacent land uses is expected to be an additional 6,250 daily trips. Table 3 Daily Traffic Generated by Study Area Land Uses (1) Study Area District Grow (2006 to 2040) Percent Grow ( ) Noreast 3,525 18,775 15, % Norwest 11,675 33,375 21, % Soueast 825 2,075 1, % Souwest % Airport 4,050 10,300 6, % Grand Total , % (1) Daily vehicle trips generated (balanced post-trip distribution) One input to e ROCOG model is e assumption of future traffic volumes at e external station points entering e model area. In particular, is project was affected by assumptions regarding future grow on TH 63. Table 4 shows e existing and forecast volumes on study area and oer state trunk highway external stations, along wi e assumed rough trip

7 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 6 (external-external) percentages used in e model. Trunk highway volumes were based on e Mn/DOT Statewide Planning Level Trunk Highway Traffic and Projections ( ) (updated ) and subsequently reviewed wi Mn/DOT. Table 4 Select ROCOG Model External Station Assumptions Location Model Zone Average Daily Traffic Percent Through (EE) Pct. Change New 573 2% % 2nd Ave SE New % CR % % CSAH 20 Relocated 583 2% 576 1,147 99% TH 52 Nor % 30,000 56,520 88% TH 63 Nor % 6,300 11,010 75% TH 14 East % 6,550 10,452 60% Hwy 30 New % 1,730 2,495 44% 52 So Relocated % 17,600 26,576 51% CSAH 1 Relocated 594 5% 1,900 3,255 71% TH 63 Sou % 20,600 31,340 52% CSAH 8 Relocated % 663 1,322 99% (1) This external station is assumed to carry 2000 vehicles (diverted from TH 63 Sou) under e build alternatives. MODEL VALIDATION Standard industry practice is at travel demand models are validated against existing traffic counts to establish a goodness-of-fit. The study area volumes validated wi an R 2 fit of 0.94 for study area roadways, which is above industry standard of However, on an individual basis, roadways oer an TH 63 did not validate well due to e low existing volumes on many of e roadways. Adjustments to modeled volumes were made following techniques developed in NCHRP 255, Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design. In addition, because of unstable fluctuations of modeled volumes on low-volume roadways professional judgment was used to furer refine e daily volumes. Figure 3 shows e existing (base year 2006) traffic volumes for e analysis. In addition to published data, e model inputs included numerous turning movement and road tube counts collected specifically for e study.

8 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6 Ave r L 11 A v e 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3 rd A v e S E GH 15 ST 104 A v e Ave 5 0 ST nd St 40 St Lillie 4 8 ST 147 W il low R idg e D r 7,000 22,200 2,000 ST 101 GH 1 52 n d S t GH 8 31 s t A v e ROCHESTER Le slie 1,100 La GH ,100 ST , S E A 65 St St 75 St GH 8 GH St 7 0 H e l g e rs o n D Dr C 4, S E ,400 GH 16 GH St SE 7 5 S E 1,500 1,600?A s t A v e 2,400 20, St SE 8 5 S E 100 5,800 K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,100 GH St 95 12,400!"# St N W 14,700 ST 120 GH St SE 110 St GH 35 3,300 15, S E J:\Maps\6658\mxd\figurex_existingADT.mxd ST GH 6 GH 8 6t h St 23rd Ave GH 6 STEWARTVILLE 5 Ave S E ST st Ave SE Existing ADT (2006) Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 3

9 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 8 STEWARTVILLE/OFF-MODEL FORECASTS It was initially anticipated at e Stewartville area would be included in e expanded model area. However, review of e likely study alternatives and available data indicated at more traditional grow-rate-based forecasts would be more cost-effective. The forecasts for Stewartville include consideration of eir comprehensive plan grow areas. In addition to ose grow areas, Mn/DOT s District Six traffic projection spreadsheet was used to identify appropriate grow for TH 63. Recent counts have indicated a slower grow is likely on TH 63 compared to some previous studies. TRAFFIC MODEL ALTERNATIVES Five future year alternatives were modeled: No Build/baseline: This alternative assumes continuation of current access patterns. Because e RIA passenger terminal is assumed to move to e soueastern side of e airport as a land use change under all alternatives, it was necessary to assume a connection from e new terminal to e roadway system. The connection was assumed at TH 30, because of lesser right-of way constraints to e sou an to e nor. Alternative 2A: In is alternative all non-interchange access points on TH 63 were closed nor of I-90 and TH 30 was closed between CR 8 and TH 63, wi airport access via a frontage road on e west side of TH 63 connecting to CSAH 16. Alternative 2B: In is alternative all non-interchange access points on TH 63 were closed nor of I-90 and TH 30 was closed between CR 8 and TH 63, wi airport access via a bridge over TH 63 and connecting on e east side of TH 63 to 85 Street SE. Alternative 3A: In is alternative all non-interchange access points on TH 63 were closed nor of I-90 and TH 30 was rerouted nor along e west edge of TH 63 and connecting to CSAH 16; Alternative 3B: In is alternative all non-interchange access points on TH 63 were closed nor of I-90 and TH 30 was rerouted nor along e east side of TH 63 to CSAH 16 wi a bridge over TH 63 connecting e west side of TH 63 to 85 Street SE.. Alternative 4: Similar to Alternative 3B, but wi an interchange at 85 Street SE and TH 63. In addition, two sensitivity tests were conducted, as described later in is memorandum.

10 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 9 FORECAST RESULTS Figures 4 rough 9 show e results of e 2040 travel demand forecasts for key roadway segments. These volumes, plus more detailed information from e travel demand model (not shown in e figures) were used as inputs to e traffic operations analysis. The No build/baseline alternative (Figure 4) shows a grow on TH 63 of 6-8,000 vehicles per day (vpd) in e Stewartville area, and a grow of 10,000 to 16,000 vpd between I-90 and 48 Street. Alternative 2A (Figure 5) includes a new nor-sou extension of 2nd Ave. NE across I-90 connecting to in Stewartville, which would carry 2,000 vpd by 2040; ese trips would previously have been on TH 63 leaving e Stewartville area. The elimination of e TH 30 segment west of TH 63 would result in diversion of traffic to CSAH 8 to e nor for traffic to e Rochester area, and to CSAH 8 and CSAH 35 for traffic to e east on I-90 and TH 30 or destined to e Stewartville area. Alternative 2B (Figure 6) would have effects similar to alternative 2A. One difference would be at by serving e air passenger terminal via a backage road on e east side of TH 63 e distribution of traffic at e CSAH 16 interchange would be more balanced on e east and west approaches. However, if e backage road connection is to 2nd Ave. NE a portion of e west side traffic (approximately 550 trips per day) can be expected to continue nor on CSAH 20 raer an use TH 63. Alternative 3A (Figure 7) provides a connection for TH 30 to TH 63 via e west side frontage road, significantly reducing e diversion to CSAH 8 seen in Alternatives 2A and 2B. This alternative provides e highest level of traffic at e west side approach of CSAH 16 at e TH 63 interchange: 13,200 vpd compared to 7,950 vpd under e No Build/baseline alternative. Alternative 3B (Figure 8) would reduce e TH 30 diversion much less an Alternative 3A, because e access to e CSAH 16 interchange is more circuitous. Traffic approaches to e CSAH 16 interchange are more balanced between e east and west approaches, similar to Alternative 2B. As noted in e discussion of Alternative 2B a portion of e air passenger terminal traffic can be expected to continue nor on CSAH 20 raer an use TH 63. Alternative 4 (Figure 9) would provide e most direct access to TH 63 from e study area, which would eliminate any diversion from TH 30 to CSAH 8, and attract longer distance trips to/from e nor from e soueast portion of e study area to use TH 63 instead of CSAH 20.

11 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6t h A v e r L 11 A v e 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3 rd A v e S E UV 15 ST 104 A v e 55 Ave 5 0 ST nd St 40 St Lillie 4 8 W il low R idg e D r +, ST ,600 16,500 24,500 ST 101 UV 1 52 n d S t 6 0 ROCHESTER UV 8 2,600 2, s t A v e Le slie La 6 0 4,200 ST , S E A 65 St UV H e l g e rs o n D UV 16 1,650 7,950 32,800 Dr C 7 5 S E 80 St 80 St 8 0 S E 80 St SE 2,600 2, s t A v e 3, ,450 8,800 30, SE 8 5 S E K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,100 UV St 95 22,700!"# St N W 20,900 ST St SE 110 St UV 35 4,900 23, S E J:\Maps\6658\071509\mxd\figure25_nobuildADT.mxd ST UV 6 UV 8 6t h St 23rd Ave STEWARTVILLE UV 6?A30 5 Ave S E ST st Ave SE Year 2040 No-Build ADT Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 4

12 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6t h A v e 11 A v e 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3rd Ave SE UV 15 ST 104 A v e Ave 5 0 ST nd St 40 St Lillie 4 8 W il low R idg e D r ST ,800 18,000 23,800 ST 101 UV 1 52 n d S t UV 8 31 s t A v e ROCHESTER Le slie La 2,600 3, A 65 St 2,900 1,900 ST , S E St UV St 70 H e l g e r s o n D r UV 16 11,400 3,100 28,800 3,150 2, S E 80 St SE 7 5 S E 3,600 2, s t A v e 0 28, S t SE S E 2,000 8,800 K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,000 UV St 95 22,700!"# St N W 20,400 ST St SE J:\Maps\6658\mxd\071509\figure26_2A-ADT.mxd 110 St ST 108 UV UV 8 6t h St 23rd Ave UV 35 5,900 22,400 STEWARTVILLE?A 30 UV 6 5 Ave S E ST S E 31st Ave SE Year 2040 Build ADT: Alternative 2a (West Side Frontage - No MN 30 Connection) Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 5

13 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6t h A v e r L 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3rd Ave SE UV 15 ST 104 A v e 55 Ave 5 0 ST nd St 40 St Lillie 4 8 ST 147 W il low R idg e D r 52,800 17,800 24,500 ST 101 UV 1 52 n d S t 6 0 ROCHESTER UV 8 3,550 2, s t A v e Le slie La 6 0 A 65 St 2,900 1,900 ST , S E UV H e l g e rs o n D Dr C 9,000 UV 16 4,450 28,800 5, S E 80 St 80 St 8 0 S E 80 St SE 3,600 2, s t A v e ú 0 28, St SE 85 St SE 2,550 2,000 8,800 K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,800 UV St 95 22,700!"# St N W 20,200 ST St SE 110 St UV 35 5,700 22, S E J:\Maps\6658\mxd\071509\figurex_2B-AD T.mxd ST UV 6 UV 8 6t h St 23rd Ave UV 6 STEWARTVILLE 5 Ave S E ST st Ave SE Year 2040 Build ADT: Alternative 2b (East Side Backage Road - No MN 30 Connection) Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 6

14 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6t h A v e L 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3rd Ave SE UV 15 ST 104 A v e Ave 5 0 ST nd St 40 St Lillie 4 8 W il low R idg e D r ST ,850 52,700 23,500 ST 101 UV 1 52 n d S t UV 8 31 s t A v e ROCHESTER Le slie 2,600 La 3, A 65 St 2,400 1,900 ST , S E St UV St 70 H e l g e r s o n D r Dr C 13,200 UV 16 3,200 28,800 3,150 4, S E 80 St SE 7 5 S E 2,700 2, s t A v e 2,800 1,700 28, St SE! 100 2,000 8, S E K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,400 UV St 95 22,700!"# St N W 19,400 ST St SE 110 St 5,200 22, S E J:\Maps\6658\mxd\071509\figure28_3A-ADT.mxd ST 108 UV UV 8 6t h St 23rd Ave UV 6 UV 35 STEWARTVILLE 5 Ave S E ST st Ave SE Year 2040 Build ADT: Alternative 3a (West Side Frontage Road) Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 7

15 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6t h A v e r L 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3rd Ave SE UV 15 ST 104 A v e 55 Ave 5 0 ST nd St 40 St Lillie 4 8 ST 147 W il low R idg e D r 52,700 17,450 24,700 ST 101 UV 1 52 n d S t 6 0 ROCHESTER UV 8 3,650 2, s t A v e Le slie La 6 0 A 65 St 2,700 1,800 ST , S E UV H e l g e rs o n D Dr C 9,400 UV 16 3,850 28,800 5, S E 80 St 80 St 8 0 S E 80 St SE 3,400 2, s t A v e 2,600 ú 1,500 28, St SE 85 St SE 2,900 2,000 8,800 K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,600 UV St 95 22,700!"# St N W 20,000 ST St SE 110 St UV 35 5,500 22, S E J:\Maps\6658\mxd\071509\figure29_3B-ADT.mxd ST 108 UV UV 8 6t h St 23rd Ave UV 6 STEWARTVILLE 5 Ave S E ST st Ave SE Year 2040 Build ADT: Alternative 3b (East Side Backage Road) Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 8

16 v e 55 Ave 50 Ave 11 A ve 6t h A v e r L 9 Ave 2 n d A ve N E 3rd Ave SE UV 15 ST 104 A v e 55 Ave 5 0 Lillie W il low R idg e D r 53,200 17,800 24, n d S t 6 0 ST nd St 40 St 4 8 ST 147 ST 101 UV 1 UV 8 31 s t A v e ROCHESTER Le slie 2,600 La 2, A 65 St 2,500 1,800 ST , S E UV H e l g e rs o n D Dr C 9,400 UV 16 1,600 30,200 1, S E 80 St 80 St 8 0 S E 80 St SE 2,450 2, s t A v e 3,600 29, St SE 1,800 2,000 8, St SE K ram er R d N E 87 St SE ,000 UV St 95 22,700!"# St N W 19,400 ST St SE 110 St UV 35 4,700 22, S E J:\Maps\6658\mxd\071509\figure30_4-ADT.mxd ST 108 UV t h St UV 8 UV 6 23rd Ave STEWARTVILLE 5 Ave S E ST st Ave SE Year 2040 Build ADT: Alternative 4 (85/87 St Interchange) Rochester Airport Sub-Area Study/TH 63 S. Corridor Plan Mn/DOT D6, Olmsted County and ROCOG Figure 9

17 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 16 Two sensitivity tests were run for e study: In e initial alternatives it was observed at a portion of e traffic from e east backage road under alternatives 2B, 3B and 4 continued on CSAH 20 to e nor instead of accessing TH 63 at CSAH 16 due to e distance (approximately one mile) between CSAH 20 and e CSAH 16 interchange. A sensitivity test shows at a more direct connection would reduce volumes on CSAH 20, between CSAH 16 and 48 Street, by as much as 1000 vpd under Alternative 3B. However, e reduction is much smaller (100 vpd) under Alternative 4, which more directly provides a connection to TH 63 in e soueast portion of e study area. The loss of non-interchange access to TH 63 would result in e loss of access across TH 63. An overpass connecting e west and east sides of TH 63 in e vicinity of Quarve Rd. and 60 Street was modeled to test e desire for cross-freeway access, wi a resulting 650 vehicles per day. PLANNING-LEVEL ANALYSIS A planning-level review (using a critical lane analysis) was conducted at e CSAH 16/TH 63 interchange area in order to determine if ere is a need for capacity improvements wiin e existing interchange in order to accommodate e year 2040 traffic volumes. A preliminary weaving segment analysis (using Highway Capacity Software) was also conducted for e weaving area between e potential future interchange at 85/87 Street and e existing I- 90/TH 63 interchange in order to determine wheer ere would be weaving issues between e interchanges given e various interchange configuration alternatives. A summary of ese preliminary analyses are provided in e following sections. A more detailed traffic operations analysis at e key intersections will be completed as part of e future Task 8.0 (Alternatives Refinement and Development of Preferred Alternative) of is study. CSAH 16/TH 63 Interchange Year 2040 Build volumes were produced at ese intersections by comparing year 2040 Build daily traffic volumes at is location to existing average daily traffic volumes. The resholds of critical lane analysis at e CSAH 16/TH 63 Interchange are shown in Table 5 while e results of e critical lane analysis are shown in Tables 6 and 7. The analysis results shown in Tables 6 and 7 assumes two-lane approaches at each CSAH 16 intersection wi e TH 63 off-ramps (i.e. left- and right-turn lanes on e TH 63 off-ramp approaches to CSAH 16, rough and rightturn lanes on e eastbound approach at e CSAH 16/TH 63 West s and e westbound approach at e CSAH 16/TH 63 East s, and left-turn and rough lanes on e westbound approach at e CSAH 16/TH 63 West s and e eastbound approach at e CSAH 16/TH 63 East s). These baseline assumptions would require a minimum of a ree-lane CSAH 16 bridge over TH 63. As a point of reference, e existing CSAH 16 bridge is two-lanes wide. As shown in Tables 6 and 7, e analysis results show at bo intersections wiin e CSAH 16/TH 63 interchange area will operate well under capacity under year 2040 conditions regardless of e build alternative assuming e baseline geometrics described above and a reelane CSAH 16 bridge over TH 63.

18 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 17 A sensitivity test was also performed in order to determine e level of reserve capacity available to e intersections wiin e interchange area under each alternative, assuming e baseline improvements. Reserve capacity is defined as e difference between e capacity of an intersection and e volume using e intersection, and is often reported using percentages. The greater e reserve capacity, e more volume an intersection can accommodate before it will begin to experience operational issues such as increased delay, longer vehicular queues, and lower levels of service. The last column in Tables 6 and 7 show e results of is sensitivity test. Table 5 Critical Lane Thresholds and Capacity Relationships Signalized Intersections Sum of Critical Lane Relationship to Volumes [vph] Probable Capacity 0 1,200 Under Capacity 1,201 1,400 At Capacity 1,400 Over Capacity

19 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 18 Table 6 Critical Lane Analysis Results - A.M. Peak Hour Standard Diamond Intersection Description Sum of Critical Lane Volumes [vph] (Critical Movements) Relationship to Probable Capacity Available Reserve Capacity (%) Existing Conditions CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 224 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 620% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 167 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 850% 2040 No Build Conditions CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 519 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 270% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 405 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 345% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 2a CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 559 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 250% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 420 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 330% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 2b CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 440 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 320% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 200 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 700% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 3a CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 631 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 220% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 456 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 305% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 3b CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 468 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 300% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 353 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 395% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 4 CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 458 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 305% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 343 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 410% (1) Reserve capacity is defined as e percent of additional traffic at can be accommodated by e intersection before volume-to-capacity ratio reaches/exceeds 1.0. As shown in Table 6, e CSAH 16/TH 63 interchange intersections can accommodate anywhere from 200 percent to 850 percent higher traffic volumes before e volume-to-capacity ratios reach 1.0 during e a.m. peak hour, assuming e baseline improvements wiin e interchange area.

20 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 19 Table 7 Critical Lane Analysis Results - P.M. Peak Hour Standard Diamond Intersection Description Sum of Critical Lane Volumes [vph] (Critical Movements) Relationship to Probable Capacity Available Reserve Capacity (%) Existing Conditions CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 355 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 400% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 278 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 500% 2040 No Build Conditions CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 800 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 175% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 713 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 195% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 2a CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 876 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 160% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 730 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 190% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 2b CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 703 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 200% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 338 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 410% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 3a CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 1,012 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 140% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 852 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 165% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 3b CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 733 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 190% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 627 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 220% 2040 Build Conditions - Alternative 4 CSAH 16/ TH 63 West s 733 (SBL & WBT) Under Capacity 190% CSAH 16/ TH 63 East s 588 (EBL/WBT & NBL) Under Capacity 235% (1) Reserve capacity is defined as e percent of additional traffic at can be accommodated by e intersection before volume-to-capacity ratio reaches/exceeds 1.0. As shown in Table 7, e CSAH 16/TH 63 interchange intersections can accommodate anywhere from 140 percent to 500 percent higher traffic volumes before e volume-to-capacity ratios reach 1.0 during e p.m. peak hour, assuming e baseline improvements wiin e interchange area.

21 Project Steering Committee August 17, 2009 Rochester International Airport Subarea Study Page 20 Weaving Segment between 85/87 Street and I-90/TH 63 Interchanges Year 2040 Build volumes for e weaving segment between e potential future 85/87 Street interchange and e I-90/TH 63 interchange were produced at ese intersections by comparing year 2040 Build daily traffic volumes at is location to existing average daily traffic volumes. The results of e preliminary weaving segment analysis (using Highway Capacity Software) are shown in Figures 10 rough 12. It should be noted at for e purposes of e weaving segment analysis, e ultimate build geometrics (full-cloverleaf interchange) was assumed for e I-90/TH 63 interchange. The analysis results show at e weaving segment between e two interchanges will operate at an acceptable level of service B or better regardless of e 85/87 Street interchange configuration alternative. Therefore, ere are no real issues regarding e weaving segment between e potential future 85/87 Street interchange and e existing I-90/TH 63 interchange under year 2040 traffic conditions. A sensitivity test was also performed in order to determine e level of reserve capacity available to weaving segment between e two interchanges under each alternative. Figures 10 rough 12 each contain rows at show e available reserve capacity available for e weaving segments. As shown in Figure 10, e weaving segments can accommodate anywhere from 200 percent to 500 percent higher traffic volumes before e reported level of service (LOS) wiin e weaving segments drop to LOS C during e a.m. and p.m. peak hour under Alternative AAA-3 (Folded Diamond wi Auxiliary Lanes). Figure 11 shows at e weaving segments can accommodate anywhere from 230 percent to 3200 percent higher traffic volumes before e reported level of service (LOS) wiin e weaving segments drop to LOS C during e a.m. and p.m. peak hour under Alternative AAA-4 (Standard Diamond wi CD Roads). Figure 12 shows at e weaving segments can accommodate anywhere from 200 percent to 500 percent higher traffic volumes before e reported level of service (LOS) wiin e weaving segments drop to LOS D during e a.m. and p.m. peak hour under Alternative AAA-5 (Standard Diamond wi Auxiliary Lanes). H:\Projects\6658\TS\FCAST\090817_Traffic Forecasts and Analysis.docx

22 AM PM SPEED (MPH) LOS A B DENSITY (PC/MI/LN) 4 12 VOLUME TH 63 Soubound DISTANCE (FEET) AVAILABLE RESERVE CAPACITY (PERCENT) (1) LOCATION I-90 WB Off 500% 200% TH 30 On I-90 WB Off TH 30 On FREEWAY GEOMETRICS FREEWAY GEOMETRICS TH 63 Norbound LOCATION I-90 WB On DISTANCE (FEET) 2700 TH 30 Off I-90 WB On 2700 TH 30 Off VOLUME DENSITY (PC/MI/LN) LOS 12 B SPEED (MPH) AVAILABLE RESERVE CAPACITY (PERCENT) (1) 225% 450% 6 A Freeway Weaving Segment Analysis Year 2040 Build-Alternative AAA-3: Folded Diamond wi Auxiliary Lanes Rochester International Airport / TH 63 Corridor Plan Figure July 2009 (1) Reserve capacity is defined as e percentage of additional traffic volume at can be accomodated before e weaving segment reaches unacceptable level of service (LOS D)

23 AM PM SPEED (MPH) LOS A A DENSITY (PC/MI/LN) VOLUME TH 63 Soubound DISTANCE (FEET) AVAILABLE RESERVE CAPACITY 510% 230% (PERCENT) (1) LOCATION I-90 WB Off TH 30 On I-90 WB Off TH 30 On FREEWAY GEOMETRICS FREEWAY GEOMETRICS TH 63 Norbound LOCATION I-90 WB On TH 30 Off I-90 WB On DISTANCE (FEET) TH 30 Off VOLUME DENSITY (PC/MI/LN) 1 1 LOS A A SPEED (MPH) 69 AVAILABLE RESERVE CAPACITY (PERCENT) (1) 3200% Freeway Weaving Segment Analysis Year 2040 Build-Alternative AAA-4: Standard Diamond wi CD Roads Rochester International Airport / TH 63 Corridor Plan % Figure July 2009 (1) Reserve capacity is defined as e percentage of additional traffic volume at can be accomodated before e weaving segment reaches unacceptable level of service (LOS D)

24 AM PM SPEED (MPH) LOS A B DENSITY (PC/MI/LN) VOLUME TH 63 Soubound DISTANCE (FEET) AVAILABLE RESERVE CAPACITY 500% 200% (PERCENT) (1) LOCATION I-90 WB Off TH 30 On I-90 WB Off TH 30 On FREEWAY GEOMETRICS FREEWAY GEOMETRICS TH 63 Norbound LOCATION I-90 WB On DISTANCE (FEET) 2500 TH 30 Off I-90 WB On 2500 TH 30 Off VOLUME DENSITY (PC/MI/LN) 12 6 LOS B A SPEED (MPH) AVAILABLE RESERVE CAPACITY 220% 440% (PERCENT) (1) Freeway Weaving Segment Analysis Year 2040 Build-Alternative AAA-5: Standard Diamond wi Auxiliary Lanes Rochester International Airport / TH 63 Corridor Plan Figure July 2009 (1) Reserve capacity is defined as e percentage of additional traffic volume at can be accomodated before e weaving segment reaches unacceptable level of service (LOS D)