Estimation of Bogotá s Mobile Source Emissions Inventory and Analysis of Relevant Variables

Transcription

1 Estimation of Bogotá s Mobile Source Emissions Inventory and Analysis of Relevant Variables Eduardo Behrentz, Ph.D. ebehrent@uniandes.edu.co Environmental Engineering Research Center - CIIA Universidad de los Andes Bogotá, Colombia Carbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues Mexico City, Mexico September 4-8, 2006

2 AKNOWLEDGMENTS Liliana Giraldo. Mauricio Osses - Universidad de Chile. Luis Carlos Belalcazar, Diego Echeverry, Arturo Ardila. IVE Project. IAI.

3 INTRODUCTION Mobile sources are commonly deemed as the the main cause of air pollution in large urban centers. According to the city s official emissions inventory, close to 90% of the carbon monoxide emissions come from the transportation sector.

4 LOCAL CONTEXT

5 According to the World Bank, Bogotá is one of the most polluted cities in Latin America. The cities contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions inventory is about 0.1%.

6 Let s talk about criteria pollutants

7 N 11 8 SUBA 1 USAQUEN BOSA 7 CIUDAD BOLIVAR FONTIBON 14 KENNEDY 3 TUNJUELITO 13 ENGATIVA PUENTE ARANDA BARRIOS UNIDOS CHAPINERO TEUSAQUILLO 12 A. NARIÑO 4 5 MARTIRES 6 C SANTA FE CANDELARIA Air Quality Monitoring Network RAFAEL URIBE SAN CRISTOBAL 9 USME

8 PM10

9 PM 10 Nonattainment Days - National Air Quality Standards 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% Fontib n Puente Aranda

10 The Diagnosis is straightforward: Bogotá's air quality problem is related to high atmospheric concentrations of particulate matter

11 Why do we Focused on Mobile Sources? Mobile sources represent a major fraction of the inventory - about 50% accounting for primary and secondary particulate matter. From an exposure assessment perspective, mobile sources are more important than other sources.

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13 RESEARCH QUESTIONS - IVE PROJECT IN BOGOTA - What is the contribution to total emissions by the different vehicle categories of the fleet? Which are the most efficient measures to reduce vehicle emissions in the city?

14 Bogotá's Vehicle Fleet 10% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Passenger car Light-duty truck Sport utility vehicle Motorcycle Truck 13% 65% Bus Small bus Medium-size bus Other*

15 Vehicle Counts Active Fleet vs. Static Fleet Percentage of vehicles in roadway Ocupación relativa de las vías 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% VP Moto Taxi Bus Camión HD Truck 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Tiempo (h) Time of day

16 Vehicle Activity and Pollutant Emissions in Bogotá km dia -1 CO (T dia -1 ) PM 10 (T dia -1 ) Passenger Vehículos Cars Particulares 20,000, Taxis 12,000, Transit Buses buses y Busetas 4,000, Motos Motorcycles 2,000, Camiones Heavy-duty trucks 1,500, Total 40,000,000 2,500 6

17 Emission Scenarios

18 Emission Scenarios 1. What happens if we reduce the size of the oversized transit bus fleet? 2. What happens if we eliminate the two-cycle engine motorcycles? 3. What happens if we start using cleaner fuels (e.g., low-sulfur diesel, biodiesel, CNG)?

19 1. Reducing the fleet 25% Reduction Total Emissions in the city Total emissions (T day -1 ). EA: current inventory (large and inefficient fleet); ESGD = reducing the fleet by 16% (gasoline and diesel); ESD = reducing the fleet by 16% (diesel).

20 2. Technology Improvements for the Motorcycles Total Emissions in the city 20% Reduction Total emissions (T day -1 ). EA = current inventory; Catalizador = all motorcycles in the city are equipped with catalytic converters; 4 tiempos = all motorcycles in the city are equipped with four-cycle engines. B = butadiene; A = acetaldehyde; F = formaldehyde; Be= benzene.

21 3. Lowering the Diesel Sulfur Content 50% Reduction Total Emissions in the city Total Emissions in the city Total emissions (T day -1 ). EA = Current inventory (use of low-quality fuel). RSMC = Fleet update without lowering the sulfur content; RCMC = Fleet update in addition to lowering the sulfur content to 300 ppm.

22 Conclusion A similar tool and a similar approach may be useful to develop emission inventories for climate change species in places where information is scarce or not readily available.

23 Gracias! Eduardo Behrentz Universidad de los Andes Colombia