Sources & Methods for the Shipping Intelligence Weekly

Transcription

1 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions Sources & Methods for the Shipping Intelligence Weekly These Sources & Methods are part of the Clarksons Quality System registered under BS EN ISO 9002:1994 by BSI. Certificate no. FS Updated: February 2015 Clarkson Research Services 1 February 2015

2 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions Shipping Intelligence Weekly (SIW) is published on a Friday (or earlier if public holidays demand) fifty times a year (excluding Easter and Christmas weeks). Dedicated files are updated every week with the latest available data whether its frequency is weekly, monthly or longer. Sources of information are both internal and external. Internal data is gathered from Clarkson Research databases or from H. Clarkson brokers. External data is gathered from a variety of published sources. All data and information in this report is as reported up to noon on the date of publication. The data is being continually assessed, and changes may occur to historical time series. All the data in SIW is available through the Shipping Intelligence Network ( in Excel compatible time series. Cover ClarkSea Index: The ClarkSea Index is the only published weekly indicator of earnings for all the main commercial vessel types. It is weighted according to the number of vessels in each fleet sector. Clarksons Research collects rates direct from the Clarksons brokers on a daily and weekly basis and these are used to calculate the earnings that go to make up the ClarkSea Index. The sectors in the ClarkSea Index are oil tankers (VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and clean product carriers), dry bulk carriers (Capesize, Panamax, Handymax and Handysize), gas carriers, and fully cellular containerships. The ClarkSea Index is published in graphical/numerical form on the front page of the Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Weekly (SIW) and as a downloadable time series and graph on SIN Shipping Intelligence Network ( 1. Freight Rates (pp. 2-7,9) Spot rates (pp.2-5): Currently, information for 97 tanker and 63 bulkcarrier spot voyages (see Annex 2) are collected on a weekly basis and form a database stretching back, in some cases, over 30 years. This is done with the assistance of H. Clarkson & Co. brokers who fill in pro-formas prepared each week by Clarkson Research showing the previous week s rates. Tripcharter rates for four routes for a 180,000 dwt and 172,000 dwt Capesize vessel, four routes for a 74,000 dwt Panamax vessel, nine routes for a 58,000 dwt Supramax vessel, five routes for a 52,000 dwt Supramax vessel, seven routes for a 34,000 dwt and six routes for a 28,000 dwt Handysize vessel, are also collected in this way, and are based on standard Baltic Exchange vessels where appropriate. Best estimates of likely fixing levels are provided where no market fixture is made. Currently, rates are expressed in Worldscale (WS) for tanker voyages; $/tonne for dry cargo spot voyages (historically, some rates were quoted in $/(long) ton); and $/day for dry cargo tripcharters. Spot rates (p.6): Spot gas and chemical voyage rates are also collected on a weekly basis with the assistance of H. Clarkson & Co. brokers who fill in pro-formas prepared each week by Clarkson Research showing the previous week s rates. Although some rates have historically been quoted in $/(long) ton, they are all now expressed in $/metric tonne, as is the custom of the trade. Spot rates (p.7): Short Sea rates are provided by H.C. Shipping & Chartering Ltd in Hull, UK, a subsidiary of H. Clarkson & Co. Rates for offshore vessels (in /day) are quoted by H. Clarkson & Co. offshore brokers. Liner market charter rates (in $/day) are provided on a monthly basis by H. Clarkson brokers who fill in pro-formas prepared each month by Clarkson Research showing the previous month s rate. Earnings (pp.2-5): Earnings are estimated from voyage freight rates, and expressed in $/day for the voyage. In broad terms, earnings for each route are calculated by taking the total revenue, deducting current bunker costs based on prices at representative regional bunker ports, estimated port costs (after currency adjustments) and total commission and then dividing the result by the number of voyage days. Details of the calculations and their constituent parameters and assumptions are set out in more detail in Annexes 1-4. Clarkson Research Services 2 February 2015

3 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions Earnings are calculated on the basis of standard ship types (listed in Annex 3). For all crude oil and dry bulk routes, earnings are estimated for a modern and an older standard ship. Earnings for both are calculated based on a single freight rate (for modern tonnage). Only earnings based on the most modern vessel are published in full in the SIW. For tankers and bulkers, average earnings for each ship type ( Ave. Earnings ) are averages of the voyages earnings for selected routes. The constituent routes of these Average Earnings figures are listed in Annex 4 (b). Certain factors are not accounted for in the earnings calculations. These include: (i) other voyage-related costs. (ii) vessel waiting time at port. (iii) time the vessel is off-hire. Voyage earnings are also collected for the benchmark Arabian Gulf to Japan spot LPG voyage. These rates are quoted in $ 000/month by the brokers, but are converted into $/day for publication on page 6. It is important to note that these earnings calculations are only intended as benchmark indicators of the direction of the market. As such, they should not be taken to represent the precise earnings of specific vessels. However, it is possible discuss tailored statistics; For more information, please contact our Research Services team by at research.crs@clarksons.com. The assumptions and standard ship types used in the voyage earnings calculations are reviewed on a regular basis by Clarkson Research and H. Clarkson brokers, and updates are made available in this document. Comments on these assumptions and the resultant earnings calculation are welcome from users of the data, although it is important to note that the assumptions used in the calculations are just one of a range of possible assumptions, that other sources of earnings information may use alternative assumptions, and that the use of different assumptions can potentially make a significant difference to the results of earnings calculations. For the tanker, bulk carrier and chemical markets, rates are collected and earnings calculated for routes that are not published in SIW. All this additional data is available through the Shipping Intelligence Network in Excel compatible time series. Baltic Exchange Indices (p.5): The daily Baltic Freight Indices published every week are from the preceding Thursday, or from the nearest available date. For details of the Baltic Exchange Indices (BDI, BCI, BPI, BSI, BHSI etc.) see FFA Indications (p.5): FFA Indications are as reported by Clarksons Securities Ltd. at the close of business the preceding Thursday, or the nearest available date. Timecharters (p.9): Timecharter data is collected in two primary ways: (i) One year, three year and five year tanker rates, expressed in $/day, are collected on a weekly basis for standard ship types. In the dry bulk sector, data is additionally collected for a six month rate as well. The ship types for which rates are collected are specified on page 9 of SIW. Specifications of these ship types are based on guideline standard modern vessels. With respect to timecharter rates, data is collected in the same way as for spot market rates; namely, by requesting brokers to fill in a weekly pro-forma with the latest rate for each ship type or by estimating the likely rate acceptable to an owner in the absence of any fixtures. Capesize and Panamax bulkcarrier timecharter rates are the average of quotations for Atlantic and Pacific delivery, redelivery worldwide. Clarkson Research Services 3 February 2015

4 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions Timecharter rates are cross checked with the timecharter matrices that both the tanker and bulk carrier broker desks publish each week. 13 timecharter rates are also collected for LPG vessels. These rates are quoted in $ 000/month by the brokers, but are converted into $/day for publication on page 6. (ii) Details of all reported tanker, bulk carrier, containership and gas timecharter fixtures are recorded in the Clarkson Research commercial database. This data is sourced from available published sources and cross checked with information gathered by H. Clarkson brokers in the course of their business. Activity in the tanker and bulker timecharter markets, recorded as the number of fixtures for periods of one year or more, is generated from this and reported alongside average timecharter rates for tankers and bulkcarriers on page 9 of SIW. 2. Ship Prices (pp.8, i-ii, 10-11) Secondhand Sales & Prices (pp.8, i-ii): Prices for secondhand vessels are collated in conjunction with H. Clarkson & Co. sale and purchase brokers who fill in pro-formas prepared by Clarkson Research showing the previous week s levels. Prices are collected for various sizes and ages of vessels for the main vessel types and relate to market sales where these have taken place and to brokers best estimates when no sale has occurred. Prices are for standard ships of the types described in average condition, built at first class competitive Far East/European shipyards but with no account taken for survey status or condition which could affect values. All data is collected on a weekly basis, with monthly timeseries based on end month data. Time series of these prices stretch back over 30 years for some vessels. In general, prices are expressed in US$ million, but for individual sales maintained in the Clarkson Research Ship Sales Database other currencies may be specified. In SIW, this is particularly relevant to Ro-Ro vessels, where sales and benchmark timeseries are quoted in Euros. This sales data is sourced from market information provided by H. Clarkson brokers and from published material. An extract of the most recent of these sales by vessel type, including the latest sale of each ship type/size is displayed on page ii of SIW. In recent years, numerous changes/updates have been made to the existing time series, all of which have been noted on page 8. Please note that because the vessel sizes assigned to each type are representative benchmarks, they are adjusted in accordance with variances in the market, most usually to reflect vessel upsizing over time. Generally, these changes will be amalgamated into existing time series. The Clarkson 5-year-old Secondhand Price Indices are calculated by averaging the $ per dwt values of the various 5-year-old ships. The base of 100 is taken as the average index value as of January Between October 2008 and January 2010, CRSL did not publish benchmark values and users should be aware that this was a period of transition in the Sale and Purchase markets, characterised by spells of rapidly changing price levels, low levels of sales activity and a wide spread of price ideas. During this period, the data should be treated with caution as confidence limits will vary over time and between sectors. See Annex 5 for more details. The Clarkson Ship Sales Database provides the source data for establishing the monthly volume of sales activity by ship type/size and by buyer and the value of sales which is set out on page i of SIW. Newbuilding Contracts & Prices (p.10): The procedures for collecting and collating newbuilding prices are the same as those for secondhand prices. They are collated on a weekly basis in conjunction with H. Clarkson & Co. sale and purchase brokers who fill in pro-formas prepared by Clarkson Research showing the previous week s levels. Prices are collected for various sizes of newbuildings for the main Clarkson Research Services 4 February 2015

5 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions vessel types. These relate to concluded contracts when possible and to brokers best estimates when none have occurred. Prices are for ships of a European Spec, 5x 20% payments and first class competitive yards quotations. It is also important to note that these newbuilding prices are benchmark values and prices will vary according to country of build, delivery and ship specification. All data is collected on a weekly basis, with monthly timeseries based on end month data. Time series of these prices stretch back over 30 years for some vessels. In general, prices are expressed in US$ million, but for individual sales maintained in the Clarkson Research Ship Sales Database other currencies may be specified. Note, that for newly delivered vessels, the originally reported contract price is quoted where available (see page iii of SIW). Details of actual newbuilding contracts and overall activity are maintained in the Clarkson Research Newbuilding Database, either as unconfirmed orders, options or confirmed orders along with the reported price level and currency when this is available. Data is also sourced from external published material. However, only confirmed contracts are published in the SIW. The Clarkson Newbuilding Price Index is calculated by averaging the $ per dwt values of the various ship types. The base of 100 is taken as the average index value as of January Demolition Sales & Prices (p. 11): The procedures for collecting scrap prices are the same as those for secondhand and newbuilding prices. They are collated on a weekly basis in conjunction with H. Clarkson & Co. sale and purchase brokers who fill in pro-formas prepared by Clarkson Research showing the previous week s levels. Prices are collected for a range of ship types and scrapping locations (e.g. China, India and Bangladesh ). The prices that are quoted are related to market sales where they have taken place and to brokers best estimates when no sale has occurred. All data is collected on a weekly basis, with monthly timeseries based on end month data. Time series of these prices stretch back over 40 years in some instances. 21 separate prices expressed in terms of $ per lightweight ton (ldt) are collected every week for a range of ship types and scrapping locations (i.e. the Far East and the Indian sub-continent ). The values published in SIW are based on prices on the Indian sub-continent for both tankers (based on a VLCC) and dry cargo vessels (based on a Handy dry bulkcarrier of around 8,000 ldt). The additional values are available through the Shipping Intelligence Network in Excel compatible time series. Information on actual demolition sales is based on market information provided by H. Clarkson brokers and is checked and validated by reference to a range of published sources. It is stored in the Clarkson Ship Database. It includes data such as the vessels lightweights, the buyer and eventual breaker, its reported sale price in $/ldt and its estimated value in $ million. Latest sales are listed in the table on page 11 of SIW. The Database is used as the source material for the tables of demolition activity, by buyer and by ship type/size. 3. Economic & Financial Data (p.12) Economic and financial data e.g. GDP (historical and forecast), industrial production growth rates, exchange rates, forward buying rates, interest rates, inflation rates and commodity prices are sourced from recognised business, governmental and international organisations as well as the financial and commodity press on a weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual basis depending on availability. Our sources include the Financial Times, The Economist, OECD, the IMF, the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Association, the International Grains Council, MySteel and the TEX Report. Clarkson Research Services 5 February 2015

6 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions 4. Trade Data (p.13) Data on the main oil and dry cargo trades is sourced from a multitude of recognised business, commodity, governmental and international organisations on a monthly, quarterly or annual basis depending on availability. It is published as soon as it becomes available. (i) Sources of information used for oil and oil related data include: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, IEA Oil Market Report, Reuters Inside Oil, Monthly Energy Review of the IEA, Oil Market Intelligence, OPEC Monthly Report and Downstream Today. (ii) Sources of data for the dry cargo trades include: World Steel Association, TEX Report, Global Trade Atlas, International Grains Council and US Department of Agriculture publications. Statistics are taken only from published data and no use is made of confidential information obtained by Clarkson Research in the course of its business. Data are compiled into time series which are used to project future trade flows on an annualised basis. 5. Fleet Data (p.14-15) All historical and current data on the fleet, changes in the fleet and the orderbook for tankers, bulkcarriers, combined carriers, gas vessels, cellular containerships, multi-purpose vessels, general cargo, ro-ro vessels, car carriers, reefer vessels, offshore vessels and other cargo vessels are compiled by the Clarkson Research Statistics Department. Information is continuously updated through consultation with the H. Clarkson broking network and through questionnaires and direct contacts with shipowners and shipyards. Checking and validation is carried out with reference to a range of published sources. Regular follow-up surveys ensure the quality and completeness of data is continuously improved. Data collection and validation is carried out in accordance with the Clarkson Procedure CR/OPR/301. Clarkson s quality systems are ISO 9002 compliant. The system provides for monthly validations of the data, with closure at the end of each month and output reported correct as at the beginning of the following month. These procedures provide for one of the only sources of regular monthly updates of fleet data. Fleet data for tankers, combos and bulkcarriers are measured in metric tonnes. All fleet data is adjusted retrospectively for minor miscellaneous changes in the fleet when necessary. 6. Fleet Activity (p.14) Combined Carriers: An analysis of the trading activity of combined carriers is made each month. Movements of all combined carriers are checked and an assessment made of the trades in which the vessels are operating as at the first of each month based on their ports of call. A vessel is assumed to be in a particular trade from the time it loads a cargo until it reached another load port. The trades to which a vessel is allocated are either oil or one of four categories of dry bulk trades i.e. iron ore, coal, grain or others. If a vessel is laid-up or otherwise inactive this is also recorded. If there is ambiguity concerning which cargo a vessel is carrying based on its ports of call, the market knowledge of H. Clarkson brokers and their access to owner information is relied upon. Once the data for each vessel has been recorded it is linked with data from the Clarkson Research Ships Database and a routine analysis is carried out that demarcates the trading activity of the fleet into trades by ship type and size in terms of both numbers of ships and deadweight. A monthly historical record of the trading pattern of the fleet is maintained. Clarkson Research Services 6 February 2015

7 Shipping Intelligence Weekly - Sources, Methods & Definitions Inactive Tonnage: The Clarkson Research Statistics Department make weekly checks on the activity status of the tanker, combined carrier and bulkcarrier fleets. Non-trading codes are allocated to the relevant vessels within the Clarkson Research Ships Database, indicating whether it is: (i) damaged and out of service. (ii) idle and awaiting orders in the Arabian Gulf (4 weeks or more). (iii) idle for more than six weeks. (iv) laid-up. (v) in long term storage (more than 60 days). (vi) being repaired. Information on ships that are damaged, scrapped or sent for repair is sourced primarily from publicly available industry reports, such as the shipping press, and is subsequently checked and validated. Information on tonnage that is idle, laid-up or in storage is sourced primarily from broker information, fixture records and other industry sources/publications. Note: Clarkson Research is registered for ISO All data collection and processing is carried out in accordance with documented procedures on database maintenance, publication and information handling contained in the Clarkson Research Operating Handbook. Clarkson Research Services 7 February 2015

8 Shipping Intelligence Annex Weekly 1 - Earnings - Sources, Calculations Methods & Definitions The purpose of the voyage earnings series is to provide readers with an estimate of the daily earnings of ships implied by the current level of spot freight rates. The calculated earnings relate to voyages only. They take no account of any waiting or off-hire time. For both tankers and bulkcarriers, different voyage patterns are assumed depending on the route (see Annex 2). For all crude oil and dry bulk routes earnings are estimated for more than one standard ship, though only those for the most modern vessel are published in full in the SIW. 1. Routes Covered: Voyage earnings estimates are currently prepared each week by Clarkson Research for 243 tanker and bulkcarrier voyage/ship combinations. This information is laid out in detail in Annex 2(a) and 2(e). Annex 2 also outlines and tracks the development of the routes that were used prior to the current selection. 2. Ship Types Covered: The voyage earnings calculations are based on a set of 22 representative ships. The representative ship types were selected, after consultation with H. Clarkson brokers, to provide a fair indication of typical vessels being chartered on each route. A range of these typical vessels, extracted from the Clarkson Research ship database, were then analysed to provide average ship characteristics. Details of the representative ships are listed in Annex 3. Annex 3 also outlines and tracks the development of the vessel assumptions that were used prior to the current selection. 3. Voyage Earnings Calculation: Each week, the voyage earnings are calculated using a voyage estimating system. Annex 4 outlines the calculations. The key parameters in the equations are: (i) Freight rates: although freight rates for some dry cargo routes have historically been quoted in $/ long ton, all dry cargo rates are currently expressed in $/tonne, as is the custom of the trade. Tanker rates are converted from Worldscale using the Worldscale flat rate taken from the Worldscale website, as published on 1st January of each calendar year. Please note that the Worldscale flat rates are subject to revision as noted in the periodic distribution of Worldscale circulars. (ii) Cargo loaded: these are predetermined and where relevant are based on the restrictions of the vessel (e.g. cubic capacity), the load and/or discharge ports (draft restrictions) or canal restrictions (draft, beam). Cargo quantity is shown in Annex 2, column 5. The cargo sizes are intended to represent the most common quantity currently prevalent on that particular route. (iii) Port costs: the total port cost for each voyage is calculated as the sum of loading and discharge costs for the specified cargo size and ship type. The sources used to determine these figures range from the ports themselves via questionnaires, owners via Clarkson brokers, and the Global Ports and Intertanko websites. The costs are then converted from the local currency to US dollars at the current exchange rate and updated at the start of every month. (iv) Canal costs: when a voyage involves passage through a canal, the costs are added. (v) Sea Time: calculated from the voyage distance (taken from BP distance tables and Worldscale) and the vessel speed, plus a sea margin of 5% and any additional time for a canal transit. (vi) Port time: is calculated as an average of two days loading and two days discharging for tanker voyages. For the bulk trades, the total port time is determined by the actual experiences of the trade as advised by the H. Clarkson & Co. brokers. Turn time is also added when relevant, see Annex 2. (vii) Bunker prices: these are taken from prices reported each Thursday. For each geographical region, a representative bunker port has been selected and one or more is allocated to each route as appropriate. Clarkson Research Services 8 February 2015

9 Shipping Annex Intelligence 1 - Earnings Weekly Calculations, - Sources, Methods continued & Definitions The voyage estimating system first calculates the time the voyage takes in days. It then computes the net revenue earned on the voyage, after deducting total fuel/bunker costs, port costs and canal charges, and commission from the total freight revenue. The average earnings in $ per day is computed by dividing this net earnings by days for the voyage. The calculated earnings are for a single voyage only and do not include any allowance for waiting time, delays or off-hire time. 4. Speed: No attempt is made to optimise earnings by adjusting speed in response to movement in bunker prices or freight rates. See Annex Consumption: For each vessel type, standard consumption values for laden and ballast voyages and time in port have been used. See Annex 3. Consumption at sea accounts for consumption of LS fuel within ECAs and consumption in port accounts for MGO fuel consumption in EU ports since start 2010, and LS fuel consumption in all other ports in ECAs. Dirty products voyage calculations include allowance for heating consumption at sea and in port. 6. Ballast Voyages: For many tanker and dry cargo routes, the vessel is assumed to return to its loading port in ballast after discharge. However for some routes, a shorter ballast voyage is used where this is considered to be realistic. A list of the laden and ballast distances used in the calculation is contained in Annex Commission: Commission is deducted from total freight revenue at a rate of 2.5% for tanker voyages and 3.75% for bulkcarrier voyages. 8. Procedure for Updating Freight Rates: Tanker and dry cargo freight rates on 143 routes are updated on Thursday afternoon/friday morning each week by the H. Clarkson & Co. brokers. Where there has been no actual fixture on a particular route, an estimate is provided. For each market sector updating is carried out by the H. Clarkson & Co. desk trading in that specific ship size. 9. Updating Procedure: The updated freight rates are entered into the database on Thursday evening/ Friday morning each week. Estimates are then checked by the editor of SIW. 10. Voyage Earnings Calculations: A summary of the basic voyage estimating equation for tankers and bulk carriers is contained in Annex Validation of System: All possible measures have been taken to ensure that the opportunity of any inadvertent corruption to our production process has been minimised. There are also numerous safeguards in place to prevent persistent errors. 12. Other Freight Information: In addition to the freight rates for the 168 voyages, data for 40 bulkcarrier tripcharter routes, 56 bulkcarrier period timecharters and 19 tanker period timecharters are collected. Clarksons brokers provide on a weekly basis all the period timecharter rates and the rates for the tripcharter routes. Freight rates for other specialised markets are also collected including: spot rates, earnings and timecharter rates for LPG routes and vessels; spot freight rates for chemical cargoes; spot freight rates for short sea cargoes, spot daily charter hire rates for offshore service vessels; daily hire rates and period charter rates for a variety of liner vessels. 13. Stem Sizes: Sometimes the quoted cargo size moves slightly out of line with accepted practice. In order to avoid constantly changing the cargo size, and unnecessarily disturb the time series, we ask the brokers to continue to quote on a rate but as a pro rata. Note: Clarkson Research is registered for ISO All data collection and processing is carried out in accordance with documented procedures on database maintenance, publication and information handling contained in the Clarkson Research Operating Handbook. Clarkson Research Services 9 February 2015

10 Shipping Annex 2(a) Intelligence - Tanker Voyage Weekly Details - Sources, (January Methods 2009 & Onwards) Definitions CRS Voyages Cargo CRS Voyage Dist. Voyage Time - Days Total Oper. Route Name in SIW No. Load Discharge Size Ship Miles Sea Sea Port Turn Canal Voyage Speed (Issue No onw ards) Tonnes No. Laden Ballast Time Margin Time Time Transit Time Knots (L/B) VLCC - Modern c.2010-built (Crude) T120 Ras Tanura Rotterdam Gulf-Europe 280, ,170 4, /12.0 T121 Ras Tanura Chiba Gulf-Japan 265, ,654 6, /12.0 T122 Ras Tanura Ain Sukna Gulf-Red Sea 280, ,121 3, /12.0 T123 Sidi Kerir Rotterdam 280, ,159 3, /12.0 T124 Ras Tanura Ulsan Gulf-S.Korea 265, ,216 6, /12.0 T125 Ras Tanura LOOP Gulf-US Gulf 280, ,225 6, /12.0 T126 Ras Tanura Singapore Gulf-Sing 270, ,702 3, /12.0 T127 Bonny Offshore LOOP WAF-US Gulf 260, ,912 5, /12.0 T128 Bonny Offshore Kaohsiung 260, ,440 9, /12.0 T129 Bonny Offshore Jamnagar WAF-WC India 260, ,075 7, /12.0 T130 Rotterdam Singapore 275, ,866 3, /12.0 T131 Bonaire Singapore Caribs - Singapore 275, ,767 3, /12.0 T132 Mongstad LOOP 280, ,707 6, /12.0 T133 Bonny Offshore Ningbo WAF - China 260, ,196 10, /12.0 T134 Ras Tanura Jamnagar 265, ,184 1, /12.0 VLCC built (Crude) T39 Ras Tanura Rotterdam 280, ,170 4, /15.0 T40 Ras Tanura Chiba 265, ,654 6, /15.0 T41 Ras Tanura Ain Sukna 280, ,121 3, /15.0 T42 Sidi Kerir Rotterdam 280, ,159 3, /15.0 T43 Ras Tanura Ulsan 265, ,216 6, /15.0 T44 Ras Tanura LOOP 280, ,225 6, /15.0 T45 Ras Tanura Singapore 270, ,702 3, /15.0 T46 Bonny Offshore LOOP 260, ,912 5, /15.0 T47 Bonny Offshore Kaohsiung 260, ,440 9, /15.0 T79 Bonny Offshore Jamnagar 260, ,075 7, /15.0 T80 Rotterdam Singapore 275, ,866 3, /15.0 T81 Bonaire Singapore 275, ,767 3, /15.0 T104 Mongstad LOOP 280, ,707 6, /15.0 T109 Bonny Offshore Ningbo 260, ,196 10, /15.0 T110 Ras Tanura Jamnagar 265, ,184 1, /15.0 Suezmax - Modern c.2010-built (Crude) T135 Sidi Kerir Lavera Med-Med 130, ,420 1, /12.0 T136 Bonny Offshore Philadelphia WAF-USAC 130, ,184 5, /12.0 T137 Bonny Offshore Lavera WAF-Med 130, ,070 4, /12.0 T138 Ras Tanura Huizhou 130, ,159 5, /12.0 T139 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven 135, /12.0 T140 Sullom Voe LOOP 135, ,531 6, /12.0 T141 Puerto La Cruz LOOP 130, ,888 1, /12.0 T142 Novorossisyk Augusta Black Sea - Med 140, ,269 1, /12.0 T143 Ras Tanura Jamnagar 130, ,184 1, /12.0 T144 Ras Tanura Trieste 130, ,461 1, /12.0 T145 Marsa El Hariga Ningbo 130, ,612 5, /12.0 Suezmax built (Crude) T49 Sidi Kerir Lavera 130, ,420 1, /15.0 T50 Bonny Offshore Philadelphia 130, ,184 5, /15.0 T83 Bonny Offshore Lavera 130, ,070 4, /15.0 T51 Ras Tanura Huizhou 130, ,159 5, /15.0 T105 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven 135, /15.0 T106 Sullom Voe LOOP 135, ,531 6, /15.0 T107 Puerto La Cruz LOOP 130, ,888 1, /15.0 T111 Novorossisyk Augusta 140, ,269 1, /15.0 T112 Ras Tanura Jamnagar 130, ,184 1, /15.0 T113 Ras Tanura Trieste 130, ,461 1, /15.0 T114 Marsa El Hariga Ningbo 130, ,612 5, /15.0 Aframax - Modern c.2010-built (Crude) T146 Arzew Philadelphia Med-USAC 80, ,604 3, /12.0 T147 Curacao Hamburg 80, ,500 1, /12.0 T148 Ras Tanura Singapore Gulf-East 80, ,702 3, /12.0 T149 Sidi Kerir Trieste Sidi Kerir - Trieste 80, ,191 1, /12.0 T150 Sullom Voe Bayw ay UKC-USAC 80, ,025 3, /12.0 T151 Curacao Texas City Carib-US Gulf 70, ,797 1, /12.0 T152 Jakarta Chiba Indo-Japan 80, ,434 3, /12.0 T153 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven UKC-UKC 80, /12.0 T154 Sullom Voe Trieste 80, ,531 3, /12.0 T155 Novorossisyk Trieste Black Sea-Med 80, ,654 1, /12.0 T156 Seria Sydney 80, ,187 4, /12.0 T157 Primorsk Wilhelmshaven Baltic-UKC 100, ,371 1, /12.0 T158 Arzew Trieste 80, ,485 1, /12.0 T159 Mellitah^ Fos Mellitah - Fos 80, /12.0 T160 Bonny Offshore Fos 80, ,069 4, /12.0 T161 Bonny Offshore Houston 80, ,258 6, /12.0 T162 Kozmino Ulsan 100, /12.0 T163 Zuetina Singapore 80, ,800 5, /12.0 Aframax built (Crude) T62 Arzew Philadelphia 80, ,604 3, /14.5 T66 Curacao Hamburg 80, ,500 1, /14.5 T60 Ras Tanura Singapore 80, ,702 3, /14.5 T61 Sidi Kerir Trieste 80, ,191 1, /14.5 T64 Sullom Voe Bayw ay 80, ,025 3, /14.5 T65 Curacao Texas City 70, ,797 1, /14.5 T67 Jakarta Chiba 80, ,434 3, /14.5 T63 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven 80, /14.5 T87 Sullom Voe Trieste 80, ,531 3, /14.5 T88 Novorossisyk Trieste 80, ,654 1, /14.5 T89 Seria Sydney 80, ,187 4, /14.5 T97 Primorsk Wilhelmshaven 100, ,371 1, /14.5 T108 Arzew Trieste 80, ,485 1, /14.5 T115 Mellitah^ Fos 80, /14.5 T116 Bonny Offshore Fos 80, ,069 4, /14.5 T117 Bonny Offshore Houston 80, ,258 6, /14.5 T118 Kozmino Ulsan 100, /14.5 T119 Zuetina Singapore 80, ,800 5, /14.5 Continued on Page 11. ^Voyage earnings based on loading at Es Sider prior to 20th February Clarkson Research Services 10 February 2015

11 Annex Shipping 2(a) - Tanker Intelligence Voyage Weekly Details -(January Sources, Methods 2009 Onwards & Definitions - Continued) CRS Voyages Cargo CRS Voyage Dist. Voyage Time - Days Total Oper. Route Name in SIW No. Load Discharge Size Ship Miles Sea Sea Port Turn Canal Voyage Speed (Issue No onwards) Tonnes No. Laden Ballast Time Margin Time Time Transit Time Knots (L/B) Dirty Products T181 Ras Tanura Singapore 80, ,702 3, /12.0 T68 St Eustatius Houston Caribs - US Gulf 50, ,061 2, /12.0 T69 Antw erp Houston UKC - US Gulf 55, ,100 5, /12.0 T71 Skikda Houston Med - US Gulf 55, ,446 5, /12.0 T182 Cap Limbe Houston 55, ,362 6, /12.0 T90 Ras Lanuf Amsterdam 45, ,827 2, /12.0 T183 Ras Lanuf Milazzo 45, /12.0 T184 Ras Lanuf Houston 45, ,197 6, /12.0 T185 Amsterdam Houston 45, ,142 5, /12.0 T97 Odessa Agioi Theodoroi Black Sea - Med 30, /12.0 T98 Lavera Augusta 30, /12.0 T99 Faw ley Rotterdam 30, /12.0 T186 Sillamae Amsterdam 30, ,381 1, /12.0 Clean Products T72 Ras Tanura Chiba Gulf - Japan 75, ,654 6, /12.0 T93 Mina Al Ahmadi Rotterdam 90, ,558 8, /12.0 T164 Yanbu Chiba 75, ,493 7, /12.0 T165 Rotterdam Chiba 80, ,284 6, /12.0 T166 Ulsan Singapore 90, , /12.0 T24 Ras Tanura Chiba Gulf - Japan 55, ,654 6, /12.0 T94 Mina Al Ahmadi Rotterdam 60, ,558 5, /12.0 T167 Yanbu Chiba 55, ,493 7, /12.0 T168 Rotterdam Chiba 60, ,284 6, /12.0 T169 Sikka New York 55, ,028 6, /12.0 T170 Sikka Jeddah 55, ,307 2, /12.0 T25 Ras Tanura Chiba Gulf - Japan 35, ,654 4, /12.0 T26 Singapore Chiba Singapore - Japan 30, , /12.0 T27 Curacao New York 38, ,770 1, /12.0 T32 Rotterdam New York UKC - USAC 37, ,383 3, /12.0 T73 Ras Tanura Dar Es Salaam Gulf - E.Africa 35, ,841 2, /12.0 T92 Bombay Chiba WC India - Japan 35, ,431 3, /12.0 T95 Mina Al Ahmadi Rotterdam Gulf - UKC 40, ,558 5, /12.0 T96 Sikka Jebel Ali 37, /12.0 T101 Amsterdam Lome UKC - W. Africa 37, ,170 4, /12.0 T102 Houston Amsterdam 38, ,148 5, /12.0 T103 Sikka Singapore 35, ,800 2, /12.0 T171 Augusta New York 37, ,268 4, /12.0 T172 Skikda Houston 35, ,446 2, /12.0 T173 Skikda Sao Luis 35, ,794 3, /12.0 T174 Houston Rio De Janeiro USG - ECSA 38, ,281 5, /12.0 T175 Houston Quintero 38, ,209 4, /12.0 T176 Singapore Sydney Singapore - E Aus 30, ,471 4, /12.0 T177 Singapore Hong Kong 30, ,458 1, /12.0 T178 Ulsan Singapore 40, , /12.0 T179 Ulsan Los Angeles 40, ,260 5, /12.0 T28 Bahrain Bombay 30, ,353 1, /12.0 T29 Augusta Lavera Med - Med 30, /12.0 T30 Augusta Rotterdam 30, ,496 2, /12.0 T74 Tuapse Agioi Theodoroi Black Sea - Med 30, /12.0 T75 Ventspils Amsterdam 30, ,096 1, /12.0 T91 Tees Amsterdam 30, /12.0 T33 Tees Dunkirk 22, /15.0 T34 Augusta Lavera 22, /15.0 A triangular clean products voyage within the Atlantic is also calculated. This is the combination of two laden legs, one from Rotterdam to New York, followed by a second from Houston to Amsterdam, at the prevailing worldscale rates for each. This utilises the standard "MR" sized benchmark vessel (CRS vessel 28), and the parameters shown below. Rotterdam New York 37,000 3,383 1, T /12.0 Houston Amsterdam 38,000 5, Clarkson Research Services 11 February 2015

12 Shipping Annex Intelligence 2(b) - Tanker Weekly Voyage - Sources, Details Methods ( ) & Definitions CRS Voyages Cargo CRS Voyage Dist. Voyage Time - Days Total Oper. Route Name in SIW (Issue No. Load Discharge Size Ship Miles Sea Sea Port Turn Canal Voyage Speed No ) Tonnes No. Laden Ballast Time Margin Time Time Transit Time Knots (L/B) VLCC - Early 1990s (Crude) T7 Ras Tanura - Rotterdam 270, ,170 11, /14.5 T8 Ras Tanura - Chiba 250, ,605 6, /14.5 T9 Ras Tanura - Ain Sukhna 270, ,061 3, /14.5 T10 Sidi Kerir - Rotterdam 270, ,159 3, /14.5 T11 Ras Tanura - Ulsan 250, ,216 6, /14.5 T35 Ras Tanura - LOOP 270, ,225 12, /14.5 T36 Ras Tanura - Singapore 260, ,702 3, /14.5 T37 Bonny Offshore - LOOP 260, ,912 5, /14.5 T38 Bonny Offshore - Kaohsiung 260, ,440 9, /14.5 T76 Bonny Offshore - Jamnagar 260, ,075 7, /14.5 T77 Rotterdam - Singapore 270, ,866 3, /14.5 T78 Bonaire - Singapore 270, ,767 3, /14.5 VLCC - Modern (Crude) T39 Ras Tanura - Rotterdam Gulf-Europe 280, ,170 11, /15.0 T40 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 265, ,605 6, /15.0 T41 Ras Tanura - Ain Sukhna Gulf-Red Sea 280, ,061 3, /15.0 T42 Sidi Kerir - Rotterdam Med-UKC 280, ,159 3, /15.0 T43 Ras Tanura - Ulsan Gulf-S.Korea 265, ,216 6, /15.0 T44 Ras Tanura - LOOP Gulf-US Gulf 280, ,225 12, /15.0 T45 Ras Tanura - Singapore Gulf-Sing 270, ,702 3, /15.0 T46 Bonny Offshore - LOOP WAF-US Gulf 260, ,912 5, /15.0 T47 Bonny Offshore - Kaohsiung WAF-East 260, ,440 9, /15.0 T79 Bonny Offshore - Jamnagar WAF-WCIndia 260, ,075 7, /15.0 T80 Rotterdam - Singapore 275, ,866 3, /15.0 T81 Bonaire - Singapore 275, ,767 3, /15.0 Suezmax - Early 1990s (Crude) T12 Sidi Kerir - Lavera 130, ,420 1, /14.0 T13 Bonny Offshore - Philadelphia 130, ,184 5, /14.0 T14 Ras Tanura - Huizhou 130, ,159 5, /14.0 T82 Bonny Offshore - Lavera 130, ,070 4, /14.0 Suezmax - Modern (Crude) T49 Sidi Kerir - Lavera Med-Med 130, ,420 1, /15.0 T50 Bonny Offshore - Philadelphia WAF-USAC 130, ,184 5, /15.0 T51 Ras Tanura - Huizhou Gulf-S.China 130, ,159 5, /15.0 T83 Bonny Offshore - Lavera WAF-Med 130, ,070 4, /15.0 Aframax /01 (Crude) T52 Ras Tanura - Singapore 80, ,702 3, /13.5 T53 Sidi Kerir - Trieste 80, ,191 1, /13.5 T54 Arzew - Philadelphia 80, ,604 3, /13.5 T55 Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven 80, /13.5 T56 Sullom Voe - Bayway 80, ,174 3, /13.5 T57 Curacao - Texas City 70, ,797 1, /13.5 T58 Curacao - Hamburg 80, ,500 1, /13.5 T59 Jakarta - Chiba 80, ,434 3, /13.5 T84 Sullom Voe - Trieste 80, ,531 3, /13.5 T85 Novorossiysk - Trieste 80, ,645 1, /13.5 T86 Seria - Sydney 80, ,187 4, /13.5 Aframax - Modern (Crude) T60 Ras Tanura - Singapore Gulf-East 80, ,702 3, /14.5 T61 Sidi Kerir - Trieste Med-Med 80, ,191 1, /14.5 T62 Arzew - Philadelphia Med-USAC 80, ,604 3, /14.5 T63 Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven UKC-UKC 80, /14.5 T64 Sullom Voe - Bayway UKC-USAC 80, ,174 3, /14.5 T65 Curacao - Texas City Carib-US Gulf 70, ,797 1, /14.5 T66 Curacao - Hamburg 80, ,500 1, /14.5 T67 Jakarta - Chiba Indo-Japan 80, ,434 3, /14.5 T87 Sullom Voe - Trieste UKC-Med 80, ,531 3, /14.5 T88 Novorrosiyk - Trieste Black Sea-Med 80, ,645 1, /14.5 T89 Seria - Sydney 80, ,187 4, /14.5 Dirty Products T68 Curacao - New York Caribs-USAC 50, ,776 1, /15.0 T69 Antwerp - Houston UKC-US Gulf 55, ,939 4, /15.0 T70 Immingham - Milazzo 50, ,444 2, /15.0 T71 Augusta - Houston Med-US Gulf 55, ,805 5, /15.0 T90 Ras Lanuf - Immingham Med-UKC 45, ,958 2, /14.0 Clean Products T24 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 55, ,605 6, /15.0 T25 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 35, ,605 6, /14.0 T26 Singapore - Chiba Sing-Japan 30, ,907 2, /14.0 T27 Curacao - New York Carib-USAC 38, ,770 1, /14.0 T28 Bahrain - Bombay 30, ,353 1, /14.0 T29 Skikda - Lavera Med-Med 30, /14.0 T30 Skikda - Rotterdam Med-UKC 30, ,033 2, /14.0 T31 Skikda - Philadelphia Med-USAC 30, ,947 3, /14.0 T32 Rotterdam - New York UKC-USAC 37, ,383 3, /14.0 T33 Tees - Dunkirk 22, /15.0 T34 Augusta - Lavera 22, /15.0 T72 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 75, ,605 6, /14.5 T73 Ras Tanura - Dar Es Salaam Gulf-E.Africa 35, ,836 2, /14.0 T74 Tuapse - Augusta Black Sea-Med 30, ,297 1, /14.0 T75 Ventspils - Amsterdam Baltic-UKC 30, ,031 1, /14.0 T91 Tees - Amsterdam UKC-UKC 30, /14.0 T92 Bombay - Chiba 35, ,431 5, /14.0 Clarkson Research Services 12 February 2015

13 Shipping Annex Intelligence 2(c) - Tanker Weekly Voyage - Sources, Details Methods ( ) & Definitions CRS Voyages Route Name in SIW Cargo CRS Voyage Dist. Voyage Time - Days Total Oper. No. Load Discharge (Issue No Size Ship Miles Sea Sea Port Turn Canal Voyage Speed 823) Tonnes No. Laden Ballast Time Margin Time Time Transit Time Knots (L/B) ULCC - Mid 1970s (Crude) T1 Ras Tanura - LOOP Gulf-US Gulf 320, ,225 12, /13.0 VLCC - Early 1990s (Crude) T7 Ras Tanura - Rotterdam 270, ,170 11, /13.5 T8 Ras Tanura - Chiba 250, ,605 6, /13.5 T9 Ras Tanura - Ain Sukhna 280, ,061 3, /15.0 T10 Sidi Kerir - Rotterdam 270, ,159 3, /13.5 T11 Ras Tanura - Ulsan 250, ,216 6, /13.5 T35 Ras Tanura - Loop 270, ,225 12, /13.5 T36 Ras Tanura - Singapore 260, ,702 3, /13.5 T37 Bonny Offshore - Loop 270, ,912 5, /13.5 T38 Bonny Offshore - Kaohsiung 260, ,440 9, /13.5 VLCC - Modern (Crude) T39 Ras Tanura - Rotterdam Gulf-Europe 275, ,170 11, /15.0 T40 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 260, ,605 6, /15.0 T41 Ras Tanura - Ain Sukhna Gulf-Red Sea 280, ,061 3, /15.0 T42 Sidi Kerir - Rotterdam Med-UK/Cont 270, ,159 3, /15.0 T43 Ras Tanura - Ulsan Gulf-S.Korea 250, ,216 6, /15.0 T44 Ras Tanura - Loop Gulf-US Gulf 275, ,225 12, /15.0 T45 Ras Tanura - Singapore 260, ,702 3, /15.0 T46 Bonny Offshore - Loop WAF-US Gulf 260, ,912 5, /15.0 T47 Bonny Offshore - Kaohsiung WAF-East 260, ,440 9, /15.0 Suezmax - Early 1990s (Crude) T12 Sidi Kerir - Lavera 135, ,420 1, /13.5 T13 Bonny Offshore - Philadelphia 130, ,184 5, /13.5 T48 Ras Tanura - Huizhou 130, ,159 5, /13.5 Suezmax - Modern (Crude) T49 Sidi Kerir - Lavera Med-Med 135, ,420 1, /15.0 T50 Bonny Offshore - Philadelphia W.Africa-USAC 130, ,184 5, /15.0 T51 Ras Tanura - Huizhou Gulf-S.China 130, ,159 5, /15.0 Aframax /01 (Crude) T52 Ras Tanura - Singapore 80, ,702 3, /14.5 T53 Sidi Kerir - Trieste 80, ,191 1, /14.5 T54 Arzew - Philadelphia 80, ,604 3, /14.5 T55 Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven 80, /14.5 T56 Sullom Voe - Bayway 80, ,174 3, /14.5 T57 Curacao - Texas City 80, ,797 1, /14.5 T58 Curacao - Hamburg 80, ,500 1, /14.5 T59 Jakarta - Chiba 80, ,194 3, /14.5 Aframax - Modern (Crude) T60 Ras Tanura - Singapore Gulf-East 80, ,702 3, /14.5 T61 Sidi Kerir - Trieste Med-Med 80, ,191 1, /14.5 T62 Arzew - Philadelphia Med-USAC 80, ,604 3, /14.5 T63 Sullom Voe - W'haven UK/Cont-UK/Cont 80, /14.5 T64 Sullom Voe - Bayway UK/Cont-USAC 80, ,174 3, /14.5 T65 Curacao - Texas City Caribs-US Gulf 80, ,797 1, /14.5 T66 Curacao - Hamburg Caribs-Europe 80, ,500 1, /14.5 T67 Jakarta - Chiba Indo-Japan 80, ,194 3, /14.5 Dirty Products T68 Curacao - New York Caribs-USAC 50, ,776 1, /13.0 T69 Antwerp - Houston UK/Cont-US Gulf 50, ,939 4, /13.0 T70 Immingham - Milazzo UK/Cont-Med 50, ,444 2, /13.0 T71 Augusta - Houston Med-US Gulf 50, ,805 5, /13.0 Clean Products T24 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 55, ,605 6, /13.0 T25 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 30, ,605 6, /14.5 T26 Singapore - Chiba Sing-Japan 30, ,907 2, /14.5 T27 Curacao - New York Caribs-USAC 30, ,770 1, /14.5 T28 Bahrain - Bombay Gulf-WC India 30, ,353 1, /14.5 T29 Skikda - Lavera Med-Med 27, /14.5 T30 Skikda - Rotterdam Med-UK/Cont 30, ,963 1, /14.5 T31 Skikda - Philadelphia Med-USAC 33, ,947 3, /14.5 T32 Rotterdam - New York UKC-USAC 33, ,383 3, /14.5 T33 Tees - Dunkirk UK/Cont-UK/Cont 20, /13.5 T34 Augusta - Lavera Med-Med 20, /13.5 T72 Ras Tanura - Chiba Gulf-Japan 75, ,605 6, /15.0 T73 Ras Tanura - Dar Es Salaam 35, ,831 2, /14.5 T74 Tuapse - Augusta Black Sea-Med 30, ,297 1, /14.5 T75 Ventspils - Amsterdam Baltic-UKC 30, /14.5 Clarkson Research Services 13 February 2015