New Technologies, New Firm Boundaries steel firms as Tier I auto suppliers

Transcription

1 New Technologies, New Firm Boundaries steel firms as Tier I auto suppliers Michael Smitka, Professor of Economics Washington and Lee University Judge, AutomoHve News PACE Supplier Awards Peter Warrian, Senior Research Fellow, Munk Centre for InternaHonal Studies University of Toronto Industry Studies Associa1on Minneapolis, Minnesota May 25, 2016

2 New Demands on Auto OEMs reduce emissions achieved / achievable but heavier drivetrains safety add mass fuel efficiency remove mass new materials required to manage tension very long-run [2040-] may be new drivetrains

3 SoluHon reducing tensions requires new materials what role suppliers? steel as example in the past treated as commodity problem-solving / quality control post-delivery now Tier I INTEGRATED FROM PRE-DESIGN PHASE

4 Macro Trends in Engines The Industry Environment Dominated by Emissions, Fuel Economy & CO 2 Reduction CO 2 Future Progress g/km CO 2 : Europe g/Km increased focus in the USA MPG: USA mpg 95g/Km in 2020, with an mpg Emissions: different global legislation limits and timing - q USA - LEV (low), ZEV (zero), California Tier2 Bin5 q Europe - Euro 6, 2014 q Japan Similar and tightening q China, India rapidly moving to Euro 4 & 5 Engine Manufactures Reactions? q New advanced combustion lean, stratified charge, EGR q Exhaust aftertreatment catalysts, particulate filters, SCR q Direct injection, turbochargers - Eco engine downsizing q Low friction engine components q Reduced engine parasitic losses smart oil & coolant pumps q Weight reduction vehicles, engines and components q Alternate fuels E85, natural gas, bio-diesel, hydrogen q High efficiency transmissions q Hybrids, electrics, start-stop NOx Emissions Limits g/kw.hr

5 The Engine World Engine Technologies Alternate Fuels Related Technologies FricHon reduchon Weight reduchon Direct injechon StraHfied charge Turbocharging Lean dilute combushon EGR Downsizing VVA Variable flow oil pump Variable water pump Bio fuels 1 gen Ethanol (E85 E70) Bio fuels 2 gen - BTL Hybrid Electrics Stop/start Gasoline Diesel FricHon reduchon Weight reduchon Downsizing Advanced Turbocharging Supercharging High pressure injechon MulHple injechons High EGR rates Temperature management Waste heat recovery NOx abertreatment DPF parhculate filter SCR selechve catalyhc reduction Variable flow pumps Bio fuels 1 gen Biodiesel (B10-B30-B100) Bio fuels 2 gen - BTL

6 Focus for here: safety Example: front offset crash test IIHS not driven by govt regulahon

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8 Le/ loses leg / right minimal injury and the door actually opened

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11 ArcelorMihal Back Story Materials science: can now design for performance by controlling microstructure manufacturing in volume NEW steels that did not exist in laboratories 20 years ago Business case: basic steel a losing proposihon Nucor China automohve 1/6 th sales, most of profits

12 Challenge compehhon from other materials aluminum carbon fiber composites high-strength steels do the job allows thin gauges that are weight-compehhve impossible to form: a spring that ruins tools costly: much the highest-priced automohve steel

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17 SoluHon: hot stamping sob steel formable by mature stamping technologies (here Usibor steel IPR...) but by pukng in die at 900ºF and quenching turns into (very) high strength steel partnered with COSMA (Magna) research centers in Canada, Belgium, Chicago tailor-welded blanks to allow mixed materials less scrap, less use expensive steel

18 Blanking reduces scrap from 60% to 37%

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20 Advanced Manufacturing Sobware Tools Finite Element Analysis ComputaHonal Fluid Dynamics

21 S in MoHon Plaporm

22 BIW Open Source Parts

23 Bringing Hot Stamping to Maturity ArecelorMihal developed concept and shopped to OEMs brought frame design concepts to Honda Volvo even more aggressive user of HSS BEFORE start of design process allowed style, cost, weight, crash performance needed: sobware & simulahon & prototypes also ability to partner with COSMO to

24 Business Strategy S-in-MoHon demonstrahng use 3 rd generahon of new steels goal: design unibody for OEMs allows ophmizahon of materials embedded three dozen engineers in OEMs new manufacturing technologies allow designing geometry previous was gauge [thickness] and grade [strength]

25 CompeHHve pressures remain Al 40% price premium 30% net weight savings hard join: Ford F-150 needed $350 new tooling aerospace as new suppliers Composites lower tooling costs very high cost but for low-volume products BMW i3 for steel, can so far preserve margins 150 million metric tons of steel annually only 4.5 million tons of aluminum but Norsk Hydro and peers have same strategic focus

26 Conclusion New Advanced Materials as Enabling Technologies Manufacture with an advanced material that allows new geometries and designs to emerge Materials enable microstructural manufacturing of new complex assemblies Shib in Boundaries of Firms along the Value Chain sobware/controls, sensors/electronics other materials: aluminum, composites, ceramics structural adhesives Strategic challenge for OEMs how involve suppliers early? Ford Hau Thai-Tang GVP Purchasing