Urban Transport in the EU Problems and Challenges. Markku Ikonen Turku University of Applied Sciences, Turku, Finland

Transcription

1 Urban Transport in the EU Problems and Challenges Markku Ikonen Turku University of Applied Sciences, Turku, Finland

2 Outline Increase in transport, vehicles and related matters Decrease in biodiversity Urbanization, urban sprawl Problems related to city traffic Solution to problems White Paper 2011 "Transport 2050" of the European Commission

3 Transportation has increased substantially More goods transported Transportation Increase Graph includes road, rail and inland waterways Growth over 100 % in some countries Index of inland freight transport growth, 2008 (in tonne km) (2000 = 100) (Eurostat)

4 Vehicle amount has increased substantially Trucks and road tractors 2003/2008 Truck Amount Increase Motorization rate of trucks and road tractors (n:o of trucks per 1000 inhabitants) (Eurostat)

5 Vehicle amount has increased substantially Cars 2003/2008 Car Amount Increase Motorization rate of passenger cars (n:o of cars per 1000 inhabitants) (Eurostat)

6 Kilometer Increase Amount of km driven has increased Source: Bodek & Heywood, Europe s Evolving Passenger Vehicle Fleet: Fuel Use and GHG Emissions Scenarios through 2035

7 Fuel Use Increase Amount of fuel used has increased Source: Bodek & Heywood, Europe s Evolving Passenger Vehicle Fleet: Fuel Use and GHG Emissions Scenarios through 2035

8 Car Amount Future Vehicle amount will increase continuously Source: Bodek & Heywood, Europe s Evolving Passenger Vehicle Fleet: Fuel Use and GHG Emissions Scenarios through 2035

9 More and more land covered by roads, streets and parking places Biodiversity Decrease

10 Urbanization Increased number of people live in cities 74 % live in cities/towns over inhabitants (Eurostat 2009) City problems cause adverse effects on the lives of greater amounts of people than before.

11 Cities are large Urbanization 10 cities in Europe (with Turkey) with over 2 M people (Eurostat 2009)

12 Urban Sprawl Cities are growing Growth rate of 15 fastest growing cities in Europe : 7 25 % Most are in Spain, Italy and Portugal City spreading induces need of traffic (Eurostat 2009)

13 Problems Emissions Air Quality Greenhouse Traffic congestion Accidents Noise Fuel supply risks

14 (CO, HC, NO X, PM) Regulated by law Unregulated compounds Depend on Engine technology Fuels Exhaust aftertreatment Air Quality Emissions

15 Air Quality: Engine Technology Electronic control of fuel supply Precise measurement, correct lambda value (gasoline) Possibility to divide injection to several phases (common rail diesel) Direct fuel injection (gasoline and diesel) Variable valve timing and lift High low rpm torque Reduced pumping losses (gasoline) Turbocharging Lower risk of lack or air Especially suitable for diesel

16 Air Quality: Fuels Conventional gasoline Oxygenation ( % of oxygen), MTBE, Ethanol Lower vapor pressure (lower volatile HC emissions) Lower sulfur Lower aromatics (e.g. benzene), lower carcinogenity Conventional diesel Lower sulfur Lower aromatics Biofuels and biocomponenents for greenhouse impact deduction Bioethanol in gasoline (max 10 %) Biodiesel (1st generation: FAME, 2nd generation HVO)

17 Air Quality: Exhaust Aftertreatment Gasoline: 3 way catalyst commonly used CO, HC: oxygenation NO X : reduction Correct air fuel ratio (lambda = 1) needed, not a problem Diesel: 3 way catalyst cannot be used Oxidation catalyst for CO, HC Particulate filters for PM NO X still a problem SCR catalysts with urea NO X storage catalysts

18 CO 2 CH 4, N 2 O, CFC's CO 2 depends directly on fuel consumption No aftertreatment for CO 2 CO 2 is the most significant Greenhouse Emissions

19 Greenhouse Emissions CO 2 reduction = Fuel consumption reduction More economical vehicles More economical driving style Reductions in km's driven Implementation of biofuels CO 2 from the tailpipe part of natural circulation of carbon

20 Traffic Congestion Traffic congestion Addition of emissions Waste of time Waste of fuel Irritation and frustration May lead to accidents Premature mortality Poor air quality Source: Levy, Buonocore, von Stackelberg: Evaluation of the public health impacts of traffic congestion: a health risk assessment

21 Congestion: Addition of Emissions Stop and go driving and idling increase both greenhouse and air quality emissions

22 Uncertainty about travel time needed Congestion: Waste of Time

23 Consumption at idle is infinite Congestion: Waste of Fuel Hybrid technology helps Start stop systems help

24 Congestion: Irritation and Frustration Upleasant emotions Humans usually try to avoid May incease risky driving behavior => increased amount of accidents

25 Congestion: Premature Mortality People with respiratory diseases have greatest risk Figure: Premature mortality (deaths per 10,000 inhabitants/year) attributable to PM2.5 exposure at year 2005 pollution levels Source:

26 Accidents Loss of lifes, injuries Economic losses Road accident fatalities / inhabitants (Eurostat)

27 Stress Concentration pakokaasupäästöt: difficulties * häkä eli hiilimonoksidi (CO) Difficulty to sleep Noise More and more people exposed to irritating noise levels Problems related to noise: * palamattomat hiilivedyt (HC) * typen oksidit (NO, NO 2, N2O eli NOx) * hiilidioksidi (CO ) Noise emissions: Tire noise Exhaust noise Engine noise Sounds of airflow 2

28 Fuel Supply Risks Concern about running out of oil About 97 % of world s transport runs on crude oil Crude oil is a finite resource Many oil fields already passed peak production Global production estimated to peak within a decade Majority of known oil reserves are in a few and politically instable locations The largest countries and most of the biggest oil consumers dependent of imported oil Supply risk! Transportation energy: estimated growth 2.5 % per year (Source: Anders Röj, Volvo)

29 MBD Fuel Supply Risks 2001 Total Norway Production in the North Sea peaked in UK 1 0 Denmark Crude Oil Production, North Sea 1975 > 2030 Sources: Norway: OED / NPD, Great Britain : DTI / BGS, Denmark: Energistyrelsen. ÅR

30 Fuel Supply Risks Alternatives for oil products should be implemented Decrease in oil dependency Mitigation of climate change (Biofuels) How long will crude oil exist? Plenty of uncertainties, like Demand Development of motorization in the developed countries China, India, Brazil motorizing rapidly Alternatives of significant magnitude? Supply New findings Utilization of existing difficult findings with new technologies Utilization of existing difficult findings due to price increase

31 Solutions Public transport Hybrid Vehicles Electric vehicles Car sharing Bicycle sharing Human powered vehicles

32 Solutions: Public Transport Route network has to be comprehensive Sufficient amount of lines Frequent enough service interval Needs sufficient amount of people Chicken egg problem No passengers => no lines No lines => no passengers

33 Solutions: Public Transport Comparison: driving costs of a personal car Taxation on car prices Taxation on fuel Annual road taxes Kilometer based taxation Would probably decrease km's driven Fuel tax increase can be skipped with more economical vehicles No decrease in congestion and accidents Technical measures already exist Question about privacy More favorable attitudes towards public transport

34 Low fuel consumption Solutions: Hybrid Vehicles Low CO 2 emissions Often also low air quality emissions Increase in air quality No influence in congestion and accidents Very promising option for city buses Tomorrow more about hybrids

35 Solutions: Electric Vehicles Some commercial vehicle models available Problems: battery capacity and cost Range around 100 km Cost several thousand Recharging time several hours Infrastructure does not exist Locally zero emissions "EEW" (Emissions elsewhere) Emissions depend on electricity generation

36 Solutions: Car Sharing Car sharing situation in Europe Source: Frost&Sullivan

37 Very practical systems exist in many cities Cost for the user not very high Vandalism might be a problem Solutions: Bicycle Sharing Figure: Barcelona, Spain

38 Human power 200 W for several minutes 100 W for hours Depends on age, size, health, physical condition 2 X 200 W sufficient for 50 km/h Human Powered Vehicles Source:

39 "Human Car" by Charles Greenwood, 60 mph

40 Human Powered Vehicles

41 European Commission White Paper "Transport 2050", adopted Comprehensive strategy for a competitive transport system Increases mobility Removes barriers in key areas, fuel growth and employment Will reduce dependence on imported oil Will cut carbon emissions in transport by 60% by

42 European Commission White Paper By 2050, key goals will include: No more conventionally fuelled (gasoline of diesel) cars in cities 40% use of sustainable low carbon fuels in aviation; at least 40% cut in shipping emissions A 50% shift of medium distance intercity passenger and freight journeys from road to rail and waterborne transport All measures together will contribute to a 60% cut in transport emissions

43 European Commission White Paper Transport 2050 roadmap: Different goals for different journey types within cities, between cities, long distance Urban transport: Shift to cleaner cars and fuels. 50% shift away from conventional fuels by 2030, phase-out in cities by 2050 Intercity: 50% of all medium-distance passenger and freight transport off the roads and onto rail and water Long-distance travel and intercontinental freight Air travel and ships dominate. New engines, fuels and traffic management systems increase efficiency and reduce emissions

44 Major changes will take place in our means of transporting both goods and humans Conclusions New ways of thinking needed will concern also urban transportation Changes in transportation systems Changes in vehicle technologies Changes in fuels and drive systems Let's be prepared!