Alex Apple Andrew Cochrane Matt Goodman 4/23/09

Transcription

1 Alternative Fuels Is US Investment in Hydrogen, Electric Vehicles, and BioFuels Worth It? Alex Apple Andrew Cochrane Matt Goodman 4/23/09

2 Hydrogen Fuel Cells Powerful potential or Explosive catastrophe?

3 History First conceived in 1839 by Sir William Robert Term fuel cell coined by Ludwig Mond and Charles Langer in 1889 Francis T Bacon produced first useful fuel cell in 1959 In the early 1960 s NASA used fuel cells in both Gemini and Apollo Fuel cell powered vehicles first hit the road in 1993

4 How it works Two ways to use Hydrogen Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Works similar to a diesel engine Hydrogen Fuel Cell Separates H 2 into protons and electrons and works similar to a battery

5 How the Fuel Cell Works

6 Advantages Offers a vehicle range similar to cars today The car itself has no emissions Hydrogen infrastructure would provide jobs Higher tank to wheel efficiency than gasoline or diesel Energy density by mass is very high Same amount of energy in 1/3 the mass

7 Disadvantages Fuel Cells are expensive Not as efficient as other technologies The end result is the same old emissions Energy density by volume is very low There are safety concerns

8 Costs $2500/KW using fuel cells Fueling station upgrades ($2 million each) At the pump costs equivalent to about $3/gal before taxes Additional power demands to make H2 Fuel cells themselves are expensive Hydrogen cars today cost over $100,000

9 Emissions 95% of US Hydrogen is made from NG Electrolysis uses a lot of power 49% of US power comes from coal Increased Power demand would lead to Increased Power demand would lead to increased emissions of CO 2 H 2 emissions into atmosphere could increase by 8 fold

10 Efficiency Electrolysis is only 30-50% efficient Hydrogen tank to wheel efficiency 36% Plant to wheel efficiency = 10-25% Account for power plant losses = less than 10% efficiency (5-8%) Other fuels: Gasoline: TTW = 10-15% Batteries: TTW = 90%, PTW = 70%

11 Efficiency

12 Energy Density Fuel tanks on cars would need to be 3 to 6 times their current size to hold the same amount of energy

13 Government Spending $1.2 billion in government budget from 2003 to 2008 for Hydrogen production research In 2004 $22 million went to research for H 2 production from fossil fuels, and $17 million to H 2 production from renewable energy $500 million for the production the FreedomCAR $3.5 billion for H 2 and the fuel cell from 2006 to 2010

14 Electric Vehicles: A Bright Idea or Shocking Mistake

15 What is an Electric Vehicle(EV)? An EV is powered exclusively by electricity Plugs into special high power or standard household outlets Great for your daily commute Better Potential for extended trips

16 How Do Electric Cars Work?

17 Pros Electric cars produce no tailpipe emissions moves emissions upstream to the utility usually reduces carbon footprint Reduce our dependency on oil Cheaper to operate ($.02 vs $0.12/mile) Electric motors develop highest torque from zero rpms fast (and quiet) acceleration

18 Cons The 4Ls Limited driving range before needing to be recharged Typically miles Many Models >200miles (Coming Soon, 300miles) Long recharge times (3-12hours) Coming Soon = 45min QuickCharge Lack of commitment by automakers to produce convenient electric cars Life of Batteries. Must be recycled or landfilled after 3-5 years Life extended with new battery technology

19 Costs Cars cost $20,000-$100,000 Smaller vehicles=$20k Sedan Range = $50K Sports Cars = $100K About $4 to fill tank $0.02/mile

20 Efficiency Battery-to-Wheel = 90% 1.1Km/MJ vs Prius 0.6Km/MJ 2X Hybrid / 4-Cyl 3X Hydrogen 5X 6-cyl or V8 10X V12

21 = 177Wh/mile * 20mile/day * 5Days/week * 50wk/yr = 885kWh/yr 100W * 24hr/day * 365days/yr / 1000 = 876kWh/yr Yearly Cost = 885kWh/yr * $0.12/kWh = $106 New Gas Budget = $9 a month

22 Zero Tailpipe Emission Emissions Emission move upstream to utility plant Production is optimized Pollution minimized via economies of scale 1/3rd emissions of Hybrids 1/10th emissions of Gas

23 Gov Spending DOE awarded $30mill for research 6/08 Split between Ford, GM,& GE Obama announces $2.4bill for research and production 3/09 $7,500 Federal Tax Credit on Purchase No Luxury Tax

24 Examples Ain t it Cute

25 Examples Ain t it Sweet Current Production VentureOne 120 mph and 0-60=<5s two-passenger, three-wheeled, 100-mpg equivalent plug-in hybrid w/ 350mile range Tilts up to 45 degrees through turns Tesla Roadster 185-kilowatt (248hp) electric 0-60 = 3.9s 240 mile range $109,000

26 Coming Soon!! Dodge Circuit (Prototype) 200-kilowatt (268-hp) electric motor lithium ion battery pack 0 to 60 mph = <5s mile range $60K-$80K Tesla Model S 2011 Seats 7 300mile 45min QuickCharge $50K in 2011 Chevy Volt mph = 5.9s 40 miles on pure electric, then gas engine runs generator Always propelled by electric motors $25K-$35K 0-60 mph = 8s

27 BIOFUELS Ethanol and Biodiesel Power from moonshine and chicken grease... Or better left in the kitchen?

28 BIOFUELS Ethanol Sugar-containing feedstock is used to produce ethyl alcohol through a process including fermentation, distillation, and denaturing Runs on gasoline engines Common blends include E10, E15, E85 US major feedstock is corn Biodiesel Plant oils, animal fat, or used grease is used as feedstock to produce methylesters and glycerol Runs on diesel engines Common blends include B5, B20, B100 US major feedstock is soybean oil

29 HOW IT WORKS Ethanol Process

30 HOW IT WORKS Biodiesel Process

31 HOW IT WORKS Production

32 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES

33 ADVANTAGES Biofuels Renewable Energy Increase energy independence Current infrastructure is readily adaptable Production is reinvested into domestic economy Decreased emissions in some cases Reduction of odor Biodegradable Promise of non-consumption feedstocks such as switchgrass for ethanol, used grease for biodiesel

34 Biofuels Use of feedstock may increase world food prices if crops are used for fuel production instead of consumption Agricultural exploitation DISADVANTAGES may offset environmental benefits Overproduction of any single crop may increase disease Ethanol Some studies state negligible to marginal reductions in CO2 emissions Hard to find outside of the midwest Biodiesel NOx emissions not decreased Biodiesel may gel in low temperatures Natural deterioration processes may lead to potential product quality issues

35 Ethanol COSTS Corn-based ethanol costs about $1.74 per gallon to produce, compared with about 95 cents to produce a gallon of gasoline Biodiesel Production costs of US $0.50 to US $0.90 per gallon, including all manufacturing costs

36 EFFICIENCIES Ethanol vs. Gasoline Ethanol yields 75,670 British thermal units per gallon instead of 115,400 Btu/gal for gasoline (34% reduction in fuel economy) 131,000 BTUs are needed to make one gallon of corn-based ethanol Biodiesel vs. Diesel B100 will reduce fuel economy and power by 10% B20 blend of biodiesel produces a 2% reduction on average

37 EMISSIONS Biodiesel

38 EMISSIONS Ethanol

39 EMISSIONS Ethanol

40 ENERGY DENSITY

41 SPENDING/GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES Current subsidies to biofuels in the US are large, between $5.5 and $7.3 billion per year $5.1 $6.8 billion for ethanol $0.4 $0.5 billion for biodiesel

42 SPENDING/GOVERNMENT History of U.S. Government on Ethanol: SUBSIDIES 1978 The Energy Tax Act of 1978 introduced the first major federal subsidy to ethanol, a full exemption from the then 4 /gallon motor fuel excise tax. In that same year, the first 20 million gallons of commercial ethanol production capacity came online Office of Technology: [in] the 1980s there is a physical though not necessarily economic possibility of producing at least 5 10 billion gallons of ethanol per year U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) observed that [t]he fuel-ethanol industry was created by a mix of Federal and State subsidies, loan programs, and incentives. It continues to depend on Federal and State subsidies USDA stated that [t]he most influential actors in the ethanol industry are Federal and State Governments U.S. ethanol industry is highly dependent upon a myriad of federal and state legislation and regulation and any changes in legislation or regulation could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and financial position. (VeraSun, 2006)

43 SPENDING/GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES

44 BRAZIL ETHANOL PRODUCTION Considered first country to enact a sustainable renewable fuels economy 30-year-old ethanol fuel program based on sugarcane cultivation Sugarcane ethanol benefits: $1.03 less than the retail price for energy equivalent of gasoline 8 times greater energy output than fossil fuel energy input required for production, 56% less greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline Prevalence: 4.2 million cars use 100% pure ethanol 5 million cars use 78%gas/22% ethanol No unmixed gasoline sold Sugar-based ethanol in US? The U.S. climate is not conducive to mass sugar cane growth Sugar farms mostly concentrated in Florida and Louisiana In 2007, Brazil produced 528 million tons of sugar; the U.S produced about 3.7 million tons.

45 Talking Points Environmental Impact Future Potential Adaptability Sustainability Required Investment