State-of-play of the project and possible way ahead

Transcription

1 Meeting of the Technical Working Group on Correlation (TWG) State-of-play of the project and possible way ahead Brussels, 23 October 2013

2 OEMs data on vehicles and technologies Addi onal test data from MSs Vehicle models LAT study Technology packages LAT study Complementary studies Sensi vity analysis Complementary studies Meta-model(s) to be used for Target Transla on Uncertain sources Meta-model(s) valida on Simula on plan Meta-model(s) es ma on Simula on outputs Tasks for LAT and complementary studies 2

3 The technical correlation exercise (presented at the TWG meeting of June, 22 nd ) A simulation-based approach supported by experimental work. Experiments needed to: validate model results provide inputs to the models provide additional data to complement the simulation work (e.g. hybrids) 3

4 Definition of representative vehicle segments (TWG meeting 22/07/2013) 1. A range of representative vehicles will be determined on the basis of (ToR): 1. technologies impacting on the ratio between CO 2 emission over WLTP and NEDC 2. market-penetration considerations 3. the need to achieve the highest coverage of the CO 2 emissions/weight joint distribution 4

5 List of models ID Origin Vehicle ACEA 1 ACEA 2 1 Alfa Rom eo Mito 1.4 Turbo S& S ( m anual transmission) 6 Hatch-B 2 Alfa Rom eo Mito 1.4 Turbo S& S ( TCT) 16 Hatch-B 3 BMW X1 sdrive2 0 d efficient dynamics 4 SUV-C 4 LAT Peugeot e-hdi FAP Hatch-C 5 Toyota Auris HSD 22 Hatch-C 6 VW Golf 1.4 TSi 9 0 kw 7 Hatch-C 7 Toyota Prius PHEV ( ) 27 Sedan-C 7 Volvo S6 0 D5 14 Sedan-D 8 AUDI A6 3.0 TFSI quattro 8 Sedan-E 10 SMART Fortwo coupe 5 2 kw m hd 15 Hatch-A AVL 11 BMW i 7 Hatch-C 12 Volvo C3 0 T5 18 Hatch-C 13 Audi A3 1.4 TFSi 7 Hatch-C 14 Fiat Punto Evo 10 Hatch-B JRC 15 Audi A4 8 Sedan-D 16 Opel Astra 1.3 CDTI ecoflex 1 Hatch-C 17 Opel Mokka 1.7 CDTI Ecotec CV 4 x2 12 SUV-C 18 New LAT Hyundai i Gasoline 5 Hatch-A 19 VW Polo 1.2 Turbo Gasoline 9 Hatch-B 20 Ford Focus 2.0 TDCI CV 13 W agon-c 5

6 Coverage of classification ACEA 1 ID Transmission Fuel Turbo Displacement 1 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 2 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 3 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 4 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 5 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 6 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 7 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 8 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 9 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 10 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 11 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 12 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 13 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 14 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 15 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 16 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 17 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 18 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 19 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 20 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 21 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 22 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 23 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 24 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 25 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 26 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 27 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 28 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 29 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 6

7 Coverage of classification ACEA 1 ID Transmission Fuel Turbo Displacement 1 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 2 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 3 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 4 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 5 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 6 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 7 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 8 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 9 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 10 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 11 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 12 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 13 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 14 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 15 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 16 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 17 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 18 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 19 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 20 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 21 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 22 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 23 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 24 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 25 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 26 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 27 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 28 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 29 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 7

8 Coverage of classification ACEA 1 ID Transmission Fuel Turbo Displacement 1 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 2 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 3 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 4 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 5 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 6 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 7 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 8 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 9 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 10 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 11 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 12 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 13 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 14 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 15 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 16 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 17 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 18 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 19 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 20 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 21 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 22 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 23 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 24 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 25 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 26 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 27 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 28 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 29 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 8

9 Coverage of classification ACEA 2 ACEA 2 Hatch (47.2%) Sedan (5.5%) Coupe (1.8%) Convertible (1%) Wagon (12.7%) SUV (13.3%) MPV (12.7%) A, mini (9.6%) B, small (26.3%) C, medium (34.1%) D, large (18.3%) E, executive (6%) F, luxury (0.2%) S, Sport (1.3%) XX XXXX X X X XXXXXXX X X X X XX X X XX X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9

10 Normalized type-approval CO2 emissions Coverage of the 2011 mass-co2 distribution 1 Segmentation of 2011 market of passenger cars in terms of normalized type-approval weight and emissions G G19 G G17 G16 G15 G14 G13 G12 G11 G10 G9 G8 G7 G6 G5 G4 G3 G2 R² = G AVL JRC New Normalized type-approval vehicle weight Group Average LAT 10

11 Representativeness of available vehicles 1. Complementary study(-ies) to fill the existing gaps of vehicle coverage. Possible choice: 1. Medium-size vehicle with reduced-size engine (Ford proposed Focus SW AT with 1.0 Fox engine) 2. VAN/MPV Vehicle (VW proposed to provide Crafter) 3. SUV (Land-Rover offered different options) 4. Sportcars? (BMW, Jaguar offered some options) 5. Additional hybrids? (Kia and Toyota offered 2 options) 2. List needing discussion and agreement within the SGS. Next web-meeting (Tuesday 29?) 11

12 Choice of relevant technology packages 1. ACEA list still to be finalized??? 2. SGS to work preparing the list of vehicles/technology combinations 3. OEMs can ask the SGS to have their technologies included. How? Providing all necessary implementation details. When? ASAP (15 Nov deadline) 12

13 Issues in complementary study(-ies) 1. Complementary study(-ies) need to respect some conditions: 1. Use of the same simulation model (AVL Cruise) 2. Same accuracy requirements 3. Consistency with the outputs provided by LAT 2. SGS is supporting Germany in defining details for carrying out the complementary study 13

14 Identification of uncertainty-variability sources and simulation plan design 1. Test procedures 2. Segment variability of main vehicle characteristics 1. Main sources of uncertainty to be identified by a Sensitivity Analysis of the Cruise model and by expert judgements (within the SGS). 3. Variability sources combined with technology packages to be used to define the simulation plan of each vehicle (both for LAT and compl. Studies) 14

15 Design of the simulation plan(s) 1. Any vehicle involved represents a cluster of vehicles. Within it there is some variability in the main uncertainty sources M (e.g. weight, displacement, power, ). 2. Any vehicle is simulated on both NEDC and WLTP (both having some uncertainties U i ) 3. Any vehicle is combined or not with some technology packages T 4. Each vehicle has two simulation plans S i for the two cycles S i =f(m,u i,t) 15

16 Execution of the simulation plan 1. LAT and complementary studies will execute the two simulation plans. Results: 1. Specific CO2 emissions (g/km) over NEDC 2. Specific CO2 emissions (g/km) over the four phases of the WLTP (to allow the introduction of weighting schemes) 2. Statistical analysis of the simulation results for the identification of possible errors and outliers 3. Simulation outputs are used to estimate a series of metamodels to extend the results obtained in simulation to any vehicle in the fleet and with any of the considered technologies 16

17 Meta-model choice 1. Two different approaches are proposed 1. ACEA approach: physical meta-models based on Willan factors 2. JRC approach: mathematical meta-model based on Kriging approximation 2. The meta-model choice influences the definition of the simulation plan and therefore needs to be carried out soon 3. Further discussions required 4. Meeting of the SGS on Tuesday 5 November? Ispra? 17

18 Meta-model validation 1. Objective of the validation: checking that meta-models results are not too far from the corresponding real/simulated data 2. Two types of validations are envisaged: 1. Validation with the results of independent (not used for the meta-model estimation) vehicle simulations 2. Validation with real measurements 3. Additional measurements for the meta-models validation provided by France. OEMs? 18

19 Issues for the meta-model use 1. The use of the meta-models requires a correct definition of the inputs. Technical/technological vehicle inputs need to be provided by OEMs 2. Test-procedure-related inputs must be defined in agreement with the TWG. The Procedure sub-group already started this process 19

20 Additional issues 1. Cross-validation study 1. In order to understand the impact of choosing a specific simulation model (AVL Cruise), for some of the vehicles considered in the study a cross-comparison will be carried out with a different tool. 2. Politecnico di Torino (prof. Federico Millo and Fabio Mallamo) in charge to carry out this activity. They already participated to the last SGS web-meeting 3. They are already started working on the development of the Opel Astra 1.3 (already in contact with Mr. Vogel). Additional vehicle(s) to be considered to be decided (Next SGS webmeeting of November 29?) 20

21 Additional issues 1. Web-based platform for data exchange 1. Due to the amount of information expected to be exchanged in the next months (between OEMs, MSs, LAT, Complementary studies, Polito, JRC), a web-based platform is under development at JRC 2. As soon as it is ready LAT will be involved in a test and then it will be released and open to the TWG 3. On a case-by-case basis, data exchange is restricted to the groups involved in the different tasks 4. To avoid IP issues, data involving NDAs and Undertakings will not be shared using the platform but bilaterally between the parties involved (OEMs and LAT, OEMs and complementary studie, etc.) 21

22 Additional issues 1. Hybrid vehicles have been included in the study. However there is no common view on how to consider them (especially plug-in hybrids) for the target translation 2. Light-commercial vehicles. The same study as for passenger cars will be repeated for Light-Commercial vehicles. This study is like to be of a much smaller size although the same rationale is considered 22

23 Summary of main open issues Vehicle/technology combinations New vehicles for complementary studies Details for complementary testing Vehicle to be used in cross-comparison Meta-model selection and simulation plan definition Test-procedure finalization The web-based platform for data/information exchange Light Commercial Vehicles AOB? 23