Update on the activities of the Steering Group on Simulation (SGS)

Transcription

1 Meeting of the Technical Working Group on Correlation (TWG) Update on the activities of the Steering Group on Simulation (SGS) 18 December

2 "What makes modeling and scientific inquiry in general so painful is uncertainty. Uncertainty is not an accident of the scientific method, but its substance (Saltelli et al., 2008) 2

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4 Steering Group on Simulation (SGS) The role of the SGS is to deal with all the aspects of the simulation relevant to the correlation study Accuracy requirements, complexity issues, scope of the study, are all elements of discussions Exploring target translation options can support in making the whole picture clearer 4

5 Outline Final vehicle segmentation Final test protocol Final list of relevant technologies Work at LAT Accuracy requirements Complementary studies Availability of data for the meta-model use 5

6 Final vehicle segmentation The vehicle market is by definition heterogeneous to meet different types of request by the users A single simulation model for the entire market would not be representative of the different performances between NEDC and WLTP Different segments have been identified to lower this heterogeneity Fuel, Turbo, Transmission, and Displacement are the main dimensions for the segmentation 6

7 ID Transmission Fuel Turbo Displacement 1 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 2 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 3 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 4 Manual diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 5 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 6 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 7 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 8 Manual gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 9 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 10 Manual gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 11 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 12 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 13 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 3 14 Automatic diesel turbo displacement cluster 4 15 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 16 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 17 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 18 Automatic gasoline turbo displacement cluster 4 19 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 1 20 Automatic gasoline non-turbo displacement cluster 2 21 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 22 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 23 Automatic full-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 3 24 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 25 Automatic full-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 26 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 1 27 Automatic plugin-hybrid gasoline turbo displacement cluster 2 28 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 1 29 Automatic plugin-hybrid Diesel turbo displacement cluster 2 7

8 Final vehicle segmentation Each of the 29 classes requires a detailed simulation model Still in some segments high heterogeneity holds for a certain spread in size and body-type Simulations not necessarily able to cover this variability Additional tests are required to check the model accuracy (validation) and to derive empirical information on the different technology packages 8

9 # T. fuel / powertrain turbo displ. vehicle 1 segment check vehicle 2 segment check vehicle 3 segment check 1 MT Diesel turbo < 1.3l Opel Astra 1.3 C, Hatch 2 MT Diesel turbo 1.3l - 1.7l Peugeot C, Hatch Renault Megane C, Hatch Mini Countryman Cooper D B, SUV 3 MT Diesel turbo 1.7l - 2.1l BMW X1 2.0d C, SUV VW Crafter F, Van 4 MT Diesel turbo > 2.1l Ford Transit 2.2l D, Van 5 MT gasoline turbo < 1.2l VW Polo 1.2 B, Hatch Ford Focus 1.0l C, Hatch Renault Clio 0.9l B, Hatch 6 MT gasoline turbo 1.2l - 1.6l Alfa Romeo Mito 1.4 B, Hatch? BMW 116i C, Hatch Ford Focus ST C, Wagon 6 MT gasoline turbo 1.2l - 1.6l Audi A3 1.4 C, Hatch VW Golf 1.4TSI ACT C, Hatch 7 MT gasoline turbo 1.6l - 2.0l Audi A4 1.8/2.0 D, Sedan? Renault Laguna D, Sedan 8 MT gasoline turbo > 2.0l Audi A4 1.8 TFSI, 4WD D,Sedan 9 MT gasoline non-turbo < 1.2l Hyundai i A, Hatch Fiat A, Hatch? Renault Twingo 1.2l A, Hatch 10 MT gasoline non-turbo > 1.2l Toyota Avensis 1.6 D, Wagon?? 11 AT Diesel turbo < 1.3l 12 AT Diesel turbo 1.3l - 1.7l Opel Mokka 1.7 C, SUV Citroën C4 Picasso 1.6 C, Van Ford Kuga 1.5, 4WD D, SUV 13 AT Diesel turbo 1.7l - 2.1l Citroën C5 2.0 D, Wagon Citroën C4 Picasso 2l C, Van 14 AT Diesel turbo > 2.1l Volvo S60 D5 2.4, 4WD D, Sedan? 15 AT gasoline turbo < 1.2l Smart Fortwo Coupe A, Hatch? Range Rover Evoque 2.2, 4WD C, SUV BMW X5 30dA, 4WD E, SUV A 16 AT gasoline turbo 1.2l - 1.6l VW Sharan 1.4 E, Van Alfa Romeo Mito 1.4 B, Hatch? Opel Meriva 1.4 B, MPV 17 AT gasoline turbo 1.6l - 2.0l BMW 328iA xdrive D, Wagon BMW 528iA E, Wagon 18 AT gasoline turbo > 2.0l Volvo C30 T5 2.5 C, Hatch? Jaguar F-type 3.0 S, Conv. 19 AT gasoline non-turbo < 1.2l Fiat Punto 1.4 B, Hatch 20 AT gasoline non-turbo > 1.2l Audi A6 3.0, 4WD E, Sedan Mercedes E350 E, Sedan 21 AT full-hybrid g. both cluster 1 22 AT full-hybrid g. both cluster 2 Toyota Auris 1.8 C, Hatch? 23 AT full-hybrid g. both cluster 3 Explanations: 24 AT full-hybrid D. turbo cluster 1 Peugeot 508 2l MT, 4WD D, Sedan vehicle LAT measured a 25 AT full-hybrid D. turbo cluster 2 Range Rover Sport TDV6 Hybrid, 4WD E, SUV vehicle AVL ( ) measureme 26 AT plugin-hybrid g. both cluster 1 Toyota Prius 1.8 C, Sedan? Opel Ampera C, Hatch vehicle JRC validation in 27 AT plugin-hybrid g. both cluster 2 vehicle new LAT 9 measureme 28 AT plugin-hybrid D. turbo cluster 1 vehicle planned? status unkn 29 AT plugin-hybrid D. turbo cluster 2 ACEA proposal measureme

10 Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) There are segments still without vehicles, especially among hybrids PHEVs suffer also for the need to define a clear procedure for testing and simulations Before starting measurements on hybrids a clear procedure must be developed and agreed upon on how to correlate them 10

11 Test-protocol Two amendments to the agreed test-protocol 1. Additional work during the day 0 (vehicle preparation) 2. The possibility to tailor the protocol to the objective of the tests (to improve the efficient resource allocation) 11

12 Vehicle preparation in Day 0 Day 0a Warm-up NEDC Coast-down of chassis-dyno setting NEDC Day 0b Warm-up WLTP Coast-down of chassis-dyno setting WLTC with NEDC RL The two settings to take into account the different thermal conditions after the two cycles 12

13 A tailored test-protocol 3 Options: 1. Generate data only for validation (shortest protocol): Only WLTC (TMH) and NEDC (NEDC RL) cold 2. Generate data for validation and fine-tuning (average protocol): WLTC (TMH) and NEDC (NEDC RL) cold and hot, plus Artemis or Ermes 3. Generate data for vehicle model development (longest protocol): WLTC (TMH and NEDC RL) and NEDC (NEDC RL) cold and hot, plus Artmemis and ERMES cycles 13

14 Final list of technology packages The final list of technology packages has been defined and specified Per each technology a possible modeling approach has been discussed with LAT Where modeling is not possible, empirical evidence is expected to come from the different complementary studies 14

15 Final list of technology packages Technology package Hybridization in detail (storage-capacity, power, type) Downspeeding (additional to turbicharged) Lean burn VVT (Valvetronic) Cylinder management Engine start stop Energy recuperation for conventional cars MT: number of gears, transmission-ratio spread EGR Diesel, (cooled) EGR gasoline, 2WD / 4WD Type of automatic transmission and number of gears Thermal management VVT (Vanos) Auxiliaries( Hydraulic vs. Electric Steering) Technology for reducing auxiliary energy (hybrids) DI / MPI Gasoline particle filter Need for testing No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes

16 Update on LAT Work LAT Cars Progress info Communication with OEMs for test/simulation results Test info Vehicle Test Modeling Validation Model completion estimation Results sent to OEM Discussion with OEM on results OEMs shared data Agreement on results Test mass [kg] Road load Alfa Romeo MiTo M Scheduled N/A 0% 1250 From regulation Alfa Romeo MiTo TcT Scheduled N/A 0% 1250 From regulation BMW X1 sdrive 20d Efficient Dynamics Ongoing 90% Pending 1590 Peugeot 308 e-hdi Ongoing 60% Ongoing Pending 1360 TA + LAT measured LAT measured and calculated Toyota Auris HSD Ongoing 30% Pending 1470 From regulation VW Golf 1.4 TSI Ongoing 60% Ongoing 1360 LAT calculated Toyota Prius PHEV N/A 70% Ongoing 1470 LAT measured = Already completed = Not yet started N/A = Not Applicable Toyota Avensis to be included in the list

17 Update on LAT Work AVL Cars Vehicle Test Progress info Modeling Validation Model completion estimation Communication with OEMs for test/simulation results Results sent Discussion with OEMs Agreement to OEM OEM on results shared data on results Volvo S60 D5 N/A 100% Test mass [kg] Test info Road load Audi A6 3.0 TFSI quattro To be measured N/A 100% SMART Fortwo coupe 52 kw To be measured N/A 100% BMW 116i 100% Volvo C30 T5 N/A 100% Audi A3 1.4 TFSI N/A 100% JRC tests = Already completed = Not yet started N/A = Not Applicable Audi A6 to be measured by Audi Smart is being measured by NL Open discussions on the tests of BMW 116i All AVL models have been delivered to LAT Simulation results sent to OEMs

18 Update on LAT Work JRC Cars Vehicle Progress info Test Modeling Validation Model completion estimation Communication with OEMs for test/simulation results Discussion with OEMs shared OEM on results data Results sent to OEM Agreement on results Test mass [kg] Test info Road load Fiat Punto Evo 1.4 Gasoline On going 30% Fiat On going 30% Audi A4 2.0 FlexiFuel On going 30% = Already completed = Not yet started N/A = Not Applicable First contacts with Audi for validating the Audi A4 model End of the week first discussion with Fiat for the 2 vehicles A complementary study to be carried out at JRC involving up to 3 additional tests and 1 additional vehicle model (under internal discussion)

19 Update on LAT Work New LAT Cars Progress info Communication with OEMs for test/simulation results Test info Vehicle Test Modeling Validation Model completion estimation Results sent to OEM Discussion with OEM on results OEMs shared data Agreement on results Test mass [kg] Road load Opel Astra 1.3D Partially Ongoing 70% Ongoing 1470 LAT measured Opel Mokka 1.7D Ongoing 0% TA (NEDC) + TMH TA (NEDC) + WLTP High VW Polo 1.2 TSI Partially Scheduled 0% 1130 TA Hyundai i10 Gasoline Citroen C5 2.0 Diesel = Already completed = Not yet started N/A = Not Applicable Opel Mokka is being currently tested at LAT Opel Astra and VW Polo tested with the old protocol For the Opel Astra, the test results have been already sent to Opel and have been partially discussed If Fiat 500 Ok, Hyundai I10 to be replaced Test campaign to be finalized end of March

20 Simulation plan The simulation plan to include all the simulations required to define valid meta-models As soon as the first vehicles with the first technology packages are ready an exercise will be carried out to compare the performance of the two approaches (Willan-based vs. Kriging) Two different plans are required Expect start: End of January 20

21 Accuracy requirements LAT has been committed to perform a simulation study and to prove the compliance with detailed accuracy requirements over the 40% of the vehicles models The SGS has agreed with LAT to amend this requirement providing evidence of the accuracy only on the Delta(CO2) for all the vehicles in the study (±2g/km on each vehicle and ±1g/km on average) with a visual check of the engine speed signal 21

22 Complementary studies NL is testing one of the AVL vehicles (the Daimler Smart) using the full test protocol SE might support the validation study with testing from vehicles randomly selected from the road DE to start soon FR already selected most of the vehicles UK to start soon 22

23 Data for the use of the meta-model Independently from the approach to the target translation, using the meta-models on each vehicle will require an extensive amount of technical information (not available from any current db) Support by OEMs, MSs, stakeholders (ICCT?) in achieving these data is crucial as the Official Monitoring database is not enough 23

24 AOB? Next SGS meetings: Telcons every second Monday at 2pm starting on January 13 th A face-to-face meeting at LAT end of January/beginning of February Minutes of the meetings as well as relevant documents to be uploaded on CIRCA 24

25 from the SGS!!!