Number 26 page 630 The production of Reliable Manufacturing company for 2007 and part of 2008 follows Production (thousands

Transcription

1 Assigmet November 9 th Forcastig- Seasoal Idex Number 26, 27, 28,29 page Statistical Techiques i Busiess ad Ecoomics Lid/Marchal/ Wathe

2 Number 26 page 630 The productio of Reliable Maufacturig compay for ad part of follows Moth (thousads (thousads Moth (thousads (thousads Jauary 6 7 July 3 4 February 7 9 August 5 March September 14 April 8 9 October 6 May 4 5 November 7 Jue 3 4 December 6 a. Usig the ratio-to-movig average method, determie the specific seasoal for July, Agustus, September Year Moth (thousads) 12 moths Total 12 moths Movig Cetre Movig Spesific Seasoal Jauary 6 February 7 March 12 April 8 May 4 jue july August September October 6 November 7 December 6 Jauary 7 February 9 March 14 April 9 May 5 jue 4 july 4

3 b. Assume that the specific seasoal i the followig table are correct. Isert i the table the specific seasoal you computed i part (a) for July, August, September ad determie the 12 typical seasoal idexes Adjusted Jauary February March April May Jue July August September October November December Total 1, ,200.0 c. Iterpret the typical seasoal idex March, April, September are the high seaso period ad July is the lowest seaso The sales of Adre s Boutique for ad part of are Moth (thousads (thousads Moth (thousads Number 27 page 630 (thousads Jauary July February August March September April October 98 May November 115 Jue December 130

4 a. Usig the ratio-to-movig average method, determie the specific seasoal for July, Agustus, September ad October Year Moth (thousads) 12 moths Total 12 moths Movig Cetre Movig Spesific Seasoal Jauary 78 February 72 March 80 April 110 May 92 jue july August September October November 115 December 130 Jauary 65 February 60 March 72 April 97 May 86 jue 72 july 65 August 61 September 75

5 b. Assume that the specific seasoal i the followig table are correct. Isert i the table the specific seasoal you computed i part (a) for July, August, September ad October ad determie the 12 typical seasoal idexes Adjusted Jauary February March April May Jue July August September October November December Total 1, ,200.0 c. Iterpret the typical seasoal idex April, November ad December are the high seaso ad February are the lowest seaso Number 28 page 631 The quarterly productio of pie lumber, i millios of board feet, by Northwest Lumber sice 2004 is Year Witer Sprig Summer Fall a. Determie the typical seasoal patter for the productio data usig the ratio- movig average

6 Year Moth (thousads) Four Quarter Total Four Quarter Movig average Cetre Movig Spesific Seasoal Witer 7.8 Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer 17.1 Fall

7 Year Witer Sprig Summer Fall Adjusted b. Iterpret the patter Demad ad productio pie lumber will be high at Summer. c. Deseasoalize the data ad determie the liear tred equatio b t y ( ti )( i i i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 = 2 2 ti ( ti ) i= 1 i= 1 y ) i, da a yi b t i i= i= = (see Table below) Year Moth (thousads) Idex Deseasoalized (Y) Code (t) Yt t^2 Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Toatl ,

8 d. Project the seasoally adjusted productio for the four quarter of Number 29 page 631 Work Gloves Corp, is reviewig its quarterly sales of Touhie, the most durable glove it produce. The umber of pairs produced (i thousad) by quarter are Year I II III IV a. Usig the ratio-to-movig-average method, determie the four quarterly idexes See Table below Year Witer Sprig Summer Fall Adjusted b. Iterpret the typical seasoal patter The productio i the third quarter is 77.15% above the ormal productio ad i the first quarter is 49,64% below the ormal productio

9 Year Moth (thousads) Four Quarter Total Four Quarter Movig average Cetre Movig Spesific Seasoal Witer 142 Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer Fall Witer Sprig Summer 587 Fall 205

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