The 2017 Wyoming Housing Needs Forecast

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3 The 2017 Wyoming Housing Needs Forecast Prepared for Wyoming Community Development Authority Prepared by Western Economic Services, LLC 212 SE 18 th Avenue Portland, OR (503) Toll-free: (866) Fax: (503) Website: Final Report April 7, 2017 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership Final Report: April 7, 2017

4 FINANCIAL SPONSOR: WYOMING COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY DATA PARTNERS: Wyoming Department of Transportation Wyoming County Assessors Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Division of Economic Analysis Wyoming Department of Revenue Multiple Listing Service Organizations of Campbell County, Casper, Cheyenne, Northwest Wyoming, and Teton County OTHER PARTNERS: Wyoming Association of Municipalities Wyoming County Commissioners Association Wyoming Economic Development Association Wyoming Business Council Copies of the Wyoming Housing Database Partnership Semiannual Report are available free of charge and may be downloaded from the WCDA website: Click on the word Demographics at the lower center of the Home Page for access to this report and other available publications. The opinions and conclusions contained within this document do not necessarily reflect those of the aforementioned partners. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership Final Report: April 7, 2017

5 Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 Section I. Moderate Growth Scenario 7 Section II. Strong Growth Scenario 11 Section III. Very Strong Growth Scenario 15 Section IV. Housing Needs Assessment 19 Section IV. Technical Discussion 25 Appendix A. Moderate Growth Scenario Tabulations 29 Appendix B. Strong Growth Scenario Tabulations 73 Appendix C. Very Strong Growth Scenario Tabulations 117 Appendix D. Housing Needs Assessment 161 Bibliography 191 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership i Final Report: April 7, 2017

6 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership ii Final Report: April 7, 2017

7 Population, 1,000s of Persons Executive Summary The 2017 Wyoming Housing Needs Forecast, presented by the Wyoming Housing Database Partnership (WHDP), is a prediction of the demand for housing within the state. Three separate viewpoints of the future were developed. One represents a moderate growth scenario ending in 2040, which is based upon a prediction released by the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information Economic Analysis Division, modified to align with the most recent 2015 statewide census data. Two other forecasts a strong growth scenario and very strong growth scenario were based upon projected data augmented to reflect more aggressive growth in Wyoming and took into account population, income, and trends in resource extraction. The housing need predictions presented herein are a count of occupied housing units and represent unconstrained demand forecasts; that is, they refer to how the housing market will likely behave in the long-term if future consumer choices are similar to trends established in the past. The year-toyear supply of housing is not modeled, but supply is assumed to materialize with sufficient household formation. While data for the entirety of the state is presented immediately below, predictions for all 23 Wyoming counties were computed. Each community within the state is encouraged to carefully consider which of the three predictions best represents their local situation. Household formation, interpreted as housing demand, is a product of several competing factors but is largely driven by population growth. Diagram A, below, presents population forecasts from each of the three scenarios as well as the 1969 through 2016 population estimates released by the Census Bureau. 800 Diagram A Population Forecasts Census Data; Forecast Year Very Strong Growth Scenario Strong Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 1 Final Report: April 7, 2017

8 1,000s of Households The moderate growth population forecast indicated restrained growth, with population reaching 608,882 persons in 2020, 651,243 by 2030, and 668,130 persons in In contrast, the strong growth population forecast indicated that Wyoming s population will reach 610,905 persons by 2020, 663,592 by 2030, and will expand to 698,263 persons in The very strong growth scenario is much more robust and indicated that Wyoming s population will reach 612,869 persons by 2020, 676,534 by 2030, and 733,092 persons in Between 2010 and 2040, population in the moderate growth scenario is projected to grow by 18.5 percent, with the strong and very strong growth scenarios projecting population growth of 23.8 percent and 30.1 respectively. Diagram B, below, presents the household forecasts from each of the three scenarios. The moderate growth scenario predicts 242,761 households by the year 2020 and 252,277 households by The strong growth scenario forecast predicts 246,954 households by the year 2020 and 276,357 households by the end of the forecast horizon in The very strong growth scenario predicts a total of 287,364 households by 2040 or 35,087 households more than the moderate growth scenario forecast. 310 Diagram I.36 Three Forecasts of Household Formation Moderate, Strong and Very Strong Forecasts Year Very Strong Growth Scenario Strong Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario The strong growth forecast indicates a slightly higher demand for rental markets than for homeownership markets in the first several years of the forecast, as shown on the following page in Diagram C However after the first five years, the demand for owner-occupied units increases and remains robust for the remainder of the forecast. Nevertheless, because homeownership will continue to rise, rental markets in some locales may incur relative weakness in the long run. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 2 Final Report: April 7, 2017

9 Renters Homeowners 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 Diagram C Renter and Homeowner Household Forecast Strong Growth Scenario Renters Year Homeowners 195, , , , , , , , , ,000 Overall, there will continue to be significant demand for affordable housing by lower-income groups. By 2040, the strong growth forecast indicated that there will be about 13,630 homeowners with incomes at 30.0 percent or less of median household income. There will also be 17,061 renters with incomes in the same range. These data are presented in Table A, below. Table A Household Forecast by Tenure and Income Strong Growth Scenario Year 0-30% 31-50% 51-80% 81-95% 96+% Total Homeowners by Percent of Median Household Income ,236 14,353 22,567 11,573 97, , ,193 14,333 22,525 11,550 97, , ,194 15,586 24,543 12, , , ,670 16,203 25,522 13, , , ,062 16,718 26,351 13, , , ,376 17,134 27,029 13, , , ,630 17,475 27,590 14, , ,202 Renters by Percent of Median Household Income ,227 12,498 15,259 5,460 22,358 69, ,371 12,585 15,277 5,478 22,478 70, ,457 13,607 16,623 5,949 24,308 75, ,029 14,134 17,268 6,177 25,229 78, ,475 14,550 17,781 6,359 25,944 81, ,811 14,870 18,179 6,501 26,484 82, ,061 15,113 18,484 6,609 26,887 84,155 Total Households by Percent of Median Household Income ,462 26,851 37,826 17, , , ,564 26,918 37,802 17, , , ,650 29,193 41,166 18, , , ,699 30,337 42,790 19, , , ,537 31,268 44,132 19, , , ,187 32,003 45,208 20, , , ,691 32,588 46,074 20, , ,357 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 3 Final Report: April 7, 2017

10 Section VI also displays the unmet housing need for the. This is a combination of need based on housing problems in existing units and the incremental demand for new units based on growing demand over time. Table B below shows the 2040 total housing need by income. By 2040 there will be an estimated need for 24,038 households with incomes of 0 to 30 percent of, with and additional need of 25,351 households for households with incomes of above 115 percent of. The need for workforce households in 2040 is estimated to be 28,706 households by Additional tables for the years of 2015 to 2040 by tenure are available in Appendix D. Name Table B 2040 Total Housing Need by Income Strong Growth Scenario 0-30% 30-50% 50 80% 80-95% County % 115% Albany County 3,735 1,606 1, ,196 8,572 Big Horn County ,798 Campbell County 1,603 1,378 1, ,000 3,282 9,934 Carbon County ,859 Converse County ,417 Crook County ,054 Fremont County 1,789 1,660 1, ,255 6,769 Goshen County ,657 Hot Springs County Johnson County ,817 Laramie County 3,518 3,205 4,423 1,628 1,547 4,932 19,253 Lincoln County ,914 Natrona County 2,702 2,919 2,760 1,351 1,191 4,062 14,984 Niobrara County Park County , ,060 4,749 Platte County ,278 Sheridan County 1,214 1,004 1, ,050 5,200 Sublette County ,034 2,668 Sweetwater County 1,478 1, ,369 5,771 Teton County 1,016 1,426 1, ,556 7,870 Uinta County ,610 Washakie County Weston County Total 24,038 19,442 20,636 8,070 8,364 25, ,901 City Casper city 1,925 2,039 2,228 1, ,946 11,137 Cheyenne city 2,440 2,055 2, ,517 11,747 Cody city ,458 Evanston city ,244 Gillette city 1,177 1,025 1, ,725 5,842 Green River city ,248 Jackson town ,902 Laramie city 3,439 1,439 1, ,155 Rawlins city Riverton city ,672 Rock Springs city ,954 Sheridan city ,247 Total Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 4 Final Report: April 7, 2017

11 Introduction The Wyoming Housing Database Partnership (WHDP) was created in 1997 to provide information about Wyoming s homeownership and rental housing needs. The intent of this group is to provide up-to-date information about housing in the in order to better facilitate affordable housing development and aid housing policy decisions. The WHDP is funded by the Wyoming Community Development Authority (WCDA), with other organizations providing data, review, and oversight assistance. The purpose of the 2017 Housing Needs Forecast is to report the predictions of three possible economic futures portraying moderate, strong, and very strong growth. All three forecasts span the period of 2010 through 2040 and offer predictions of the demand for housing for all counties and 76 cities in the. The three housing forecasts pertain to occupied housing units and represent unconstrained demand forecasts. They describe how the market for housing will likely behave if consumer choices are similar to choices made in the past. The year-to-year supply of housing is not modeled. 1 These results, however, do include specific identification of the number of renters and homeowners by community and the number of these households that fall into separate income groups. In earlier year s releases of this report, the WHDP used baseline population projections from Woods & Poole Economic, Inc (W&P) to prepare the moderate growth scenario. However, this report uses the modified population projections based on projections released from the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Economic Analysis Division (EAD). This particular forecast takes into better consideration of the current earnings. The 2017 Wyoming Housing Needs Forecast includes two additional predictions: the strong growth scenario forecast and the very strong growth scenario. Both scenarios incorporate assumptions of much stronger employment and population growth over the forecast horizon. Today, there are many varied pressures on the Wyoming economy. The rate of change in the state s population and related demand for housing are matters of some debate. Consequently, the goals of this research are to provide developers, administrators, grant and tax credit applicants, state and local governments, and others interested in the provision of housing and housing-related services throughout Wyoming with three possible avenues for planning for the future. The primary objective of offering three alternative forecasts is to enhance planning capacity and to provide additional tools in order to assist state and local governments in their ongoing housing needs assessment, thereby facilitating informed discussion about housing demand at the local community level. These forecasts prove useful when interpreting the need for new or rehabilitated housing and whether single-family or rental housing activities might be best undertaken. With such geographic details, including housing demand by tenure and income, development activities are more likely to fulfill the greater needs first. This document is separated into four sections and includes several technical appendices. Section I addresses the moderate growth scenario and the demand for housing by income and tenure; Section II provides an expanded narrative describing and comparing employment, population, persons per household and housing demand by tenure and income through 2040, as ascertained 1 Housing needs identified herein may not be realized if housing brought to the market is substantively different in price, amenity, or other consumer preference from those units brought to market in the recent past; and, in the case of rental property, if the units are poorly or ineffectively managed, thereby alienating the target market segment. In instances such as these, demand may be suppressed. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 5 Final Report: April 7, 2017

12 from the long-term strong growth scenario and it can be considered the base case; Section III presents the very strong growth scenario forecast again by income and tenure; Section IV presents a more technical discussion that describes the models and econometric equations developed for the forecast; and the Technical Appendices contain the detailed data tables, by county or city, tenure, and income group for all three forecasts. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 6 Final Report: April 7, 2017

13 Population, 1,000s of Persons Section I. Moderate Growth Scenario OVERVIEW This section reports a prediction of Wyoming s housing needs for the years 2010 through 2040 based on a population forecast released by the Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Economic Analysis Division (EAD), modified to include the most recent 2015 Census data estimates. POPULATION The results of the household forecast are based, in part, on county and city population and household data that were released by the Census Bureau in the 2010 Census as well as the most recent census population estimates; this data set is the most current Census county and city population information available. These historic and forecast data are presented for the years 1969 through 2040 in Diagram I.1, below Diagram I.1 Population Forecast Moderate Growth Scenaro Year Moderate Population Forecast This forecast predicts population growing modestly, at 0.57 percent per year over the next 30 years, rising from 563,626 persons in 2010 to 668,130 by It also indicates that the very aggressive growth seen during the 1970s, with population rising 3.6 percent per year, is not likely to return. As for the growth experienced in the early 1990s, at 1.4 percent per year, while seeming much more plausible given current and emerging economic trends and energy development efforts, it is not expected to recur either. Nevertheless, this moderate population growth forecast is offered as the conservative alternative to more aggressive predictions offered later in this document. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 7 Final Report: April 7, 2017

14 Households Population HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Over the past 50 years, the number of persons per household in Wyoming has declined at a relatively steady but slowing rate. Recent changes in the Wyoming s persons per household are expected to persist in the future and slight increases in persons per household, as seen in Table I.1 at right. Diagram I.2 below shows population growth and household formation. Although the population is expected to increase at faster rate than households until 2020, household formation remains strong. Total households in Wyoming are expected to increase from 226,879 in 2010 to 265,996 in 2040, at an average annual growth of 0.53 percent per year over the forecast horizon. Table I.1 Persons Per Household Moderate Growth Scenario Year Persons Per Household Diagram I.2 Population and Household Forecast Moderate Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Household Moderate Growth Population 550 HOUSEHOLD TENURE Household tenure refers to the householder s status as either a homeowner or renter. Homeownership rates are estimated from county homeownership rates spanning from 1970 through The rental share is simply one minus the homeownership share. The WHDP predicted homeownership for this forecast and interpreted the number of homeowner and renter households for all 23 counties and 46 cities and several income groupings. The statewide average homeownership rate rose steadily from 1960 through After the state s severe recession in the 1980s, rates fell from 69.2 percent in 1980 to 67.8 percent in 1990 before they rose to 70 percent in The most recent census showed that homeownership again fell to 69.2 percent in 2010, but this is most likely due to lingering effects from the 2008 collapse of the housing market and most recent recession. Homeownership rates are projected to rebound to 69.2 percent in 2020 and rise to 69.7 percent by 2040, as seen in Table I.2, on the following page. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 8 Final Report: April 7, 2017

15 However, homeownership rates differ significantly by county. Some counties, such as Albany County, with its large college student population, and Teton County, with its high levels of vacation and rental properties, will remain low, 50.3 and 57.7 percent in 2040, respectively. On the other hand, some areas tend to have high levels of homeownership such as Crook, Lincoln, and Weston Counties, which had homeownership rates of 79.2, 80.7, and 79.3 in Table I.2 Wyoming Homeownership Rates Decennial Census; Moderate Forecast County Albany Big Horn Campbell Carbon Converse Crook Fremont Goshen Hot Springs Johnson Laramie Lincoln Natrona Niobrara Park Platte Sheridan Sublette Sweetwater Teton Uinta Washakie Weston Wyoming While homeownership rates are increasing modestly, the overall demand for housing by both renters and homeowners will continue to rise statewide. Renter households are anticipated to rise from 69,802 in 2010 to 76,347 by The number of homeowner households will increase by 30,042 units, from 157,077 units in 2010 to 175,930 by Again, these demands will vary significantly throughout the state, with higher growth areas experiencing increases and slower or no growth areas seeing lapses in net housing demand. Appendix A presents county-level population and household forecasts, the latter by tenure, over the 2010 through 2040 period. It also includes selected cities in the state. TENURE BY INCOME The forecast of household formation by tenure was further segmented by income, expressed as a percentage of Median Household Income (MHI). Households for all 23 counties were separated into five categories: those with incomes from 0 to 30 percent of MHI, from 31 to 50 percent of MHI, 51 to 80 percent of MHI, 81 to 95 percent of MHI, and all those above 95 percent of MHI. These same income groupings were prepared for a selection of 46 Wyoming cities and towns. Homeowner households with incomes from 0 to 30 percent of MHI will increase from 11,236 households in 2010 to 13,630 by Homeowner households with incomes from 51 to 80 percent of MHI will rise from 25,462 in 2010 to 30,691 by These data are presented in Table I.3, on the following page. 2 2 Totals may not sum precisely due to rounding. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 9 Final Report: April 7, 2017

16 Table I.3 Households by Tenure and Income Moderate Growth Scenario Year 0-30% 31-50% 51-80% 81-95% 96+% Total Homeowners by Percent of Median Household Income ,236 14,353 22,567 11,573 97, , ,193 14,333 22,525 11,550 97, , ,194 15,586 24,543 12, , , ,670 16,203 25,522 13, , , ,062 16,718 26,351 13, , , ,376 17,134 27,029 13, , , ,630 17,475 27,590 14, , ,202 Renters by Percent of Median Household Income ,227 12,498 15,259 5,460 22,358 69, ,371 12,585 15,277 5,478 22,478 70, ,457 13,607 16,623 5,949 24,308 75, ,029 14,134 17,268 6,177 25,229 78, ,475 14,550 17,781 6,359 25,944 81, ,811 14,870 18,179 6,501 26,484 82, ,061 15,113 18,484 6,609 26,887 84,155 Total Households by Percent of Median Household Income ,462 26,851 37,826 17, , , ,564 26,918 37,802 17, , , ,650 29,193 41,166 18, , , ,699 30,337 42,790 19, , , ,537 31,268 44,132 19, , , ,187 32,003 45,208 20, , , ,691 32,588 46,074 20, , ,357 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 10 Final Report: April 7, 2017

17 Population, 1,000s of Persons Section II. Strong Growth Scenario OVERVIEW The Wyoming Housing Database Partnership s (WHDP s) strong growth scenario housing needs forecast was prepared by utilizing the same fixed-effects econometric analysis and modeling techniques as in the moderate growth scenario but with a more aggressive set of population and variable inputs for determining the forecasted household values. POPULATION Under this scenario, population is expected to increase from 563,626 persons in 2010 to 610,905 persons by 2020, 663,592 persons by 2030, and 698,263 persons by 2040, for a total increase of 134,637 persons over the forecast period. This represents an annual growth rate of 0.72 percent per year between 2010 and While this rate is higher than the growth experienced in Wyoming during the early 1990s, it is still lower than the growth seen during the 1970s. Diagram II.1, below, presents the population forecast Diagram II.1 Population Forecast Strong Growth Scenario Year HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Over the past 50 years, the number of persons per household in Wyoming has declined at a relatively steady but slowing rate, as shown in Table II.1, at right. However recent increases in persons per household is expected to increase less than the moderate forecast, reaching 2.53 persons per household in As the number of persons per household rises, total household formation will increase slower than population, as seen in Diagram II.2, on the following page. Table II.1 Persons per Household Strong Growth Scenario Year Persons Per Household Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 11 Final Report: April 7, 2017

18 Households are forecasted to rise to 284,165 by This represents an average annual growth rate of 0.72 percent per year over the forecast horizon. HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE Homeownership was also predicted for each county. Overall, homeownership is expected to rise slightly from 69.2 percent in 2010 to 69.5 percent by However, homeownership will vary significantly around the state. By 2040, Crook County will have a homeownership rate of 78.8 percent, while Albany County will have a homeownership rate of only 52.4 percent. For Wyoming, the 69.8 percent homeownership rate in the 2040 forecast means that the number of homeowners will increase from 157,077 in 2010 to 192,202 by the end of the forecast horizon. The trend toward increasing homeownership is consistent and solid over the entire forecast horizon. Even during periods of slower population growth, increases in homeownership will occur. Table II.2, below, presents Wyoming homeownership rates by county. Table II.2 Wyoming Homeownership Rates Decennial Census; Strong Growth Scenario County Albany Big Horn Campbell Carbon Converse Crook Fremont Goshen Hot Springs Johnson Laramie Lincoln Natrona Niobrara Park Platte Sheridan Sublette Sweetwater Teton Uinta Washakie Weston Wyoming While homeownership will become a reality for a large share of households in this scenario, the number of renters will also increase over the thirty-year period. The total number of renters will rise from 69,802 in 2010 to 85,711 by Overall, rental household formation will rise by only 0.69 percent per year over the forecast horizon. These data are presented in Diagram II.3, on the following page. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 12 Final Report: April 7, 2017

19 Renters Homeowners 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 Diagram II.3 Renter and Homeowner Household Forecast Strong Growth Scenario Renters Year Homeowners 195, , , , , , , , , ,000 Most counties in Wyoming are expected to see rising housing demand over the forecast period. However, there will likely be some weakening in demand for rental housing in selected geographic markets at differing times over the forecast horizon. Complete data sets for the strong growth scenario for each county and selected cities are presented in Appendix B. TENURE BY INCOME The forecast of household formation by tenure was further segmented by income, expressed as a percentage of Median Household Income (MHI). Households for all 23 counties were separated into five categories: those with incomes from 0 to 30 percent of MHI, from 31 to 50 percent of MHI, 51 to 80 percent of MHI, 81 to 95 percent of MHI, and all those above 95 percent of MHI. These same income groupings were prepared for a selection of 46 Wyoming cities and towns. By the year 2040, 30,691 households statewide are anticipated to have extremely low incomes of 30 percent or less of MHI. Even though renters will make up 30.5 percent of all households in 2040, 20.3 percent, or 17,061 renter households, will be extremely low-income. This implies that, from 2010 to 2040, there will be an addition of 2,834 extremely low-income renters in Wyoming and, furthermore, the need for assisted rentals for this group will rise over the forecast horizon. By the year 2040, there will be 192,202 homeowners, and 62.1 percent of this group will have incomes above 95 percent of MHI. This represents a sweeping increase of 21,961 housing units in demand for this income group between the 2010 and 2040 period. However, the number of homeowners in the low-income categories will rise and place the extremely low-income householder at risk of deferred maintenance or of losing his or her home. This translates into prospective higher demand for assistance. Under this forecast, there are likely to be about 13,630 homeowners by 2040 with incomes of less than 30 percent of MHI, or 7.1 percent of all homeowner households. These data are presented in Table II.3, on the following page. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 13 Final Report: April 7, 2017

20 Table II.3 Households by Tenure and Income Strong Growth Scenario Year 0-30% 31-50% 51-80% 81-95% 96+% Total Homeowners by Percent of Median Household Income ,236 14,353 22,567 11,573 97, , ,193 14,333 22,525 11,550 97, , ,194 15,586 24,543 12, , , ,670 16,203 25,522 13, , , ,062 16,718 26,351 13, , , ,376 17,134 27,029 13, , , ,630 17,475 27,590 14, , ,202 Renters by Percent of Median Household Income ,227 12,498 15,259 5,460 22,358 69, ,371 12,585 15,277 5,478 22,478 70, ,457 13,607 16,623 5,949 24,308 75, ,029 14,134 17,268 6,177 25,229 78, ,475 14,550 17,781 6,359 25,944 81, ,811 14,870 18,179 6,501 26,484 82, ,061 15,113 18,484 6,609 26,887 84,155 Total Households by Percent of Median Household Income ,462 26,851 37,826 17, , , ,564 26,918 37,802 17, , , ,650 29,193 41,166 18, , , ,699 30,337 42,790 19, , , ,537 31,268 44,132 19, , , ,187 32,003 45,208 20, , , ,691 32,588 46,074 20, , ,357 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 14 Final Report: April 7, 2017

21 Population, 1,000s of Persons Section III. Very Strong Growth Scenario OVERVIEW The Wyoming Housing Database Partnership (WHDP) suspects that growth identified in the strong growth scenario forecast might not adequately represent potential growth in Wyoming if prospective and emerging trends are stronger than now anticipated. Hence, an alternative forecast was prepared that assumes higher growth rates for both employment and population. POPULATION Under this scenario, population is expected to increase from 563,626 persons in 2010 to 612,869 persons by 2020 and ultimately reach 733,092 persons by This change represents an increase of 34,829 persons compared to the strong growth scenario 2040 forecast and an annual growth rate of 0.88 percent over the forecast period, which is similar to the growth seen between 1990 and 2000 of 0.9 percent per year. Diagram III.1, below, presents this very strong population forecast Diagram III.1 Population Forecast Very Strong Growth Year HOUSEHOLD FORMATION As in previous scenarios, the number of persons per household is predicted to rise slightly over the forecast period, from 2.48 in 2010 to 2.55 in 2040, as seen in Table III.1, at right. In the very strong growth scenario, the expansion rate of the population rises faster than household formation, which implies persons per household increases over the forecast horizon. As persons per household increase, total household formation will increase slower than population, as seen in Diagram III.2, on the following page. Forecasted households will rise to 287,364 by 2040, representing an annual growth rate of 0.79 percent per year between 2010 and Table III.1 Persons Per Household Very Strong Growth Scenario Year Persons Per Household Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 15 Final Report: April 7, 2017

22 Households Population 290 Diagram III.2 Population and Household Forecasts Very Strong Growth Scenario Year Very Strong Growth Household Very Strong Growth Population 450 HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE Homeownership is also predicted for each county. The number of homeowners and renters are interpreted from these data, and the rapid population growth will result in more overall renters. Homeownership is expected to decrease slightly over the forecast horizon, to 69.3 percent by 2040, as seen in Table III.2, below. However, homeownership will vary significantly throughout the state. Albany and Teton counties are still expected to have lower homeownership rates, at 52.1 and 57.9 percent, respectively. At the other extreme, Crook, Lincoln, and Weston counties will all exceed 75 percent homeownership. Table III.2 Wyoming Homeownership Rates Decennial Census; Very Strong Growth Scenario County Albany Big Horn Campbell Carbon Converse Crook Fremont Goshen Hot Springs Johnson Laramie Lincoln Natrona Niobrara Park Platte Sheridan Sublette Sweetwater Teton Uinta Washakie Weston Wyoming Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 16 Final Report: April 7, 2017

23 Renters Homeowners Homeownership and total households are used to determine the number of homeowners. Homeownership will rise to 199,019 by the year 2040, with the number of renters reaching 88,346 by An estimated 18,614 renters will have incomes of 30 percent or less of MHI in Still, the rising homeownership rate indicates that total rental demand will grow more slowly than total households, as seen in Diagram III.3, below. County-level forecasts of population and households, the latter by tenure, from 2000 through 2040, are presented in Appendix C, in addition to related income groupings, by tenure, for all 23 counties and 76 cities and towns. 100,000 95,000 Diagram III.3 Renter and Homeowner Household Forecast Very Strong Growth Scenario 195,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65, , ,000 60, Year Renters Homeowners 150,000 TENURE BY INCOME The forecast of household formation by tenure was further segmented by income, expressed as a percentage of MHI. Households for all 23 counties were separated into five categories: those with incomes from 0 to 30 percent of MHI, from 31 to 50 percent of MHI, 51 to 80 percent of MHI, 81 to 95 percent of MHI, and all those above 95 percent of MHI. These same income groupings were prepared for a selection of 76 Wyoming cities and towns. The income groups were further separated for a subset of the cities. Twenty-one of the cities had income groups separated into 31 to 40 percent of MHI, 41 to 45 percent, 46 to 50 percent, 51 to 55 percent, 56 to 60 percent, 61 to 80 percent, 81 to 115 percent, and 116 percent or more of MHI. While these county and selected city data are also presented in Appendix C, statewide totals are addressed below. The estimated number of homeowners with 30 percent or less of MHI in 2040 is forecasted to be 14,120, which compares to 17,906 renters in the same income category. Overall, the total number of households with 30 percent or less of MHI in 2040 is estimated to reach 32,026. The very strong statewide forecast through 2040, segmented by tenure and income, is presented in Table III.3, on the following page. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 17 Final Report: April 7, 2017

24 Table III.3 Household Forecast by Tenure and Income Very Strong Growth Scenario Year 0-30% 31-50% 51-80% 81-95% 96+% Total Homeowners by Percent of Median Household Income ,236 14,353 22,567 11,573 97, , ,193 14,333 22,525 11,550 97, , ,232 15,634 24,615 12, , , ,764 16,321 25,705 13, , , ,250 16,956 26,722 13, , , ,697 17,543 27,667 14, , , ,120 18,101 28,569 14, , ,019 Renters by Percent of Median Household Income ,227 12,498 15,259 5,460 22,358 69, ,371 12,585 15,277 5,478 22,478 70, ,482 13,632 16,652 5,959 24,338 76, ,162 14,255 17,414 6,229 25,430 79, ,780 14,826 18,116 6,478 26,417 82, ,355 15,359 18,775 6,714 27,336 85, ,906 15,873 19,410 6,940 28,216 88,346 Total Households by Percent of Median household Income ,462 26,851 37,826 17, , , ,564 26,918 37,802 17, , , ,714 29,266 41,267 18, , , ,925 30,576 43,119 19, , , ,029 31,782 44,838 20, , , ,052 32,902 46,442 20, , , ,026 33,974 47,979 21, , ,364 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 18 Final Report: April 7, 2017

25 Section IV. Housing Needs Assessment OVERVIEW Housing needs are defined as a combination of the incremental forecast of growth in households, by tenure and income plus those households experiencing some unmet housing need by tenure and income in 2015, the base year of the forecast. The housing needs assessment uses the strong growth scenario alongside the quantity of households with existing housing needs to define total housing need. In the case where the forecast is always a positive number, simple addition of these two quantities, the forecast need and existing need, by tenure and income, by county or city, are fairly straight forward. On the other hand, if the forecast represents a negative number, where population and households are declining, the incremental housing forecast is set to zero and the total number of existing housing needs would be declining, since people are leaving. This is occurring in some counties in Wyoming in the early forecast years, particularly for homeowners. Furthermore, when households begin to return to the county in which others had left, they draw upon a portion of the vacated housing stock. So, total need will somewhat trail total growth in a recovery. To aid understanding of unmet housing needs, by tenure and income, the base year housing need is defined as those households experiencing one or more of the following four housing problems in 2015: 1. Overcrowding or severe overcrowding is defined as 1.0 or more persons per room or 1.5 person per room for severe overcrowding; 2. Cost burden or severe cost burden is defined as a household spending 30.0 to 50.0 percent of income on housing, with severe cost burden defined as spending above 50.0 percent of income on housing 3. Lacking complete plumbing facilities is defined as a household which lacks any of the following: hot and cold running water, a flush toilet or a bathtub or shower. All three facilities must be located inside the household. 4. Lacking complete kitchen facilities is defined as a household which lacks any of the following: A sink with faucet, a stove or range or a refrigerator. All three facilities must be located inside the household. CURRENT HOUSING NEED As can be seen on the following page, in 2015 there are 56,381 total households in Wyoming that have one or more housing problem, which are comprised of 30,476 owner-occupied housing units and 25,905 renter housing units. This level of housing need is assumed to remain fixed throughout the forecast horizon, unless the county or city experiences negative growth, in which case it assumed some percentage 3 of households with problems leave the jurisdiction. Additional details by tenure are available in Appendix D. 3 The number of households experiencing housing problems that are assumed to leave the jurisdiction is calculated using the percentage share of those households experiencing housing problems times the number of households estimated to be leaving the jurisdiction. Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 19 Final Report: April 7, 2017

26 Name Table IV.1 Total Households with Housing Problems by County and City Total Unmet Housing Need County Albany County 5,947 5,947 5,947 5,947 5,947 5,947 Big Horn County Campbell County 3,819 3,819 3,819 3,819 3,819 3,819 Carbon County 1,329 1,329 1,329 1,329 1,329 1,328 Converse County 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 1,025 Crook County Fremont County 4,196 4,196 4,196 4,196 4,196 4,196 Goshen County 1,313 1,285 1,302 1,312 1,313 1,313 Hot Springs County Johnson County Laramie County 9,520 9,520 9,520 9,520 9,520 9,520 Lincoln County 1,640 1,640 1,640 1,640 1,640 1,640 Natrona County 7,615 7,394 7,615 7,615 7,615 7,615 Niobrara County Park County 2,702 2,702 2,702 2,702 2,702 2,702 Platte County Sheridan County 3,294 3,294 3,294 3,294 3,294 3,294 Sublette County Sweetwater County 3,062 3,062 3,062 3,062 3,062 3,062 Teton County 2,984 2,984 2,984 2,984 2,984 2,984 Uinta County 1,734 1,734 1,734 1,734 1,734 1,726 Washakie County Weston County Total 56,381 56,120 56,366 56,377 56,377 56,366 City Casper city 5,420 5,295 5,420 5,420 5,420 5,420 Cheyenne city 6,570 6,570 6,570 6,570 6,570 6,570 Cody city Evanston city 1,138 1,101 1,099 1,099 1,098 1,092 Gillette city 2,662 2,662 2,662 2,662 2,662 2,662 Green River city Jackson town 1,384 1,384 1,384 1,384 1,384 1,384 Laramie city 5,506 5,396 5,506 5,506 5,506 5,506 Rawlins city Riverton city 1,169 1,165 1,169 1,169 1,169 1,169 Rock Springs city 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 Sheridan city 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 20 Final Report: April 7, 2017

27 INCREMENTAL HOUSEHOLD DEMAND The incremental household demand is calculated by subtracting the base year of the forecast from every year over the forecast horizon. The result shows the incremental household demand in excess of the already existing housing stock. As can be seen in Table IV.2 below, there will be a demand for an additional 20,889 households by 2020, 37,892 households by 2030 and an additional 49,535 households by 2040 over the 2015 housing stock level. These numbers are also available by tenure in the appendix D and show and by 2040 a total of 35,527 owner occupied households and 14,008 renter housholds will be required by 2040 to meet household demand. Name Table IV.2 Total Incremental Household Forecast by County and City Strong Growth Scenario County Albany County 0 1,319 1,873 2,244 2,481 2,625 Big Horn County Campbell County 0 1,808 2,914 4,043 5,112 6,115 Carbon County Converse County ,061 1,238 1,392 Crook County Fremont County 0 1,117 1,599 2,024 2,337 2,573 Goshen County Hot Springs County Johnson County Laramie County 0 4,074 5,948 7,486 8,726 9,733 Lincoln County ,111 1,274 Natrona County 0 2,499 3,906 5,370 6,463 7,369 Niobrara County Park County ,282 1,597 1,853 2,047 Platte County Sheridan County ,358 1,670 1,906 Sublette County ,193 1,513 1,845 Sweetwater County 0 1,194 1,925 2,337 2,577 2,709 Teton County 0 2,198 2,906 3,608 4,267 4,886 Uinta County Washakie County Weston County Total 0 20,889 29,891 37,892 44,323 49,535 City Casper city 0 1,793 2,875 4,146 5,044 5,717 Cheyenne city 0 1,156 2,435 3,551 4,478 5,177 Cody city Evanston city Gillette city ,091 1,813 2,532 3,180 Green River city Jackson town ,246 1,518 Laramie city ,271 1,517 1,649 Rawlins city Riverton city Rock Springs city ,038 1,111 Sheridan city ,025 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 21 Final Report: April 7, 2017

28 TOTAL HOUSING NEED The total housing need is then defined as the current housing need plus the incremental housing demand. This shows the total housing required to meet both the demanded created by household growth and the current need to alleviate all households experiencing housing problems. Table IV.3 below shows toil housing need for the by county and select cities. As can be seen by 2020 there is a need for 77,009 households, either new units or renovation of existing units with housing problems. By 2040 there is an estimated need for 105,901 units, of which 66,003 are estimated to be owner-occupied and 39,898 renter occupied units. Additional details by tenure are presented in Appendix D. Name Table IV.3 Total Housing Need by County and City Strong Growth Scenario with Total Unmet Need County Albany County 5,947 7,266 7,820 8,191 8,428 8,572 Big Horn County 928 1,327 1,520 1,650 1,738 1,798 Campbell County 3,819 5,627 6,733 7,862 8,931 9,934 Carbon County 1,329 1,880 1,974 1,978 1,934 1,859 Converse County 1,025 1,506 1,853 2,086 2,263 2,417 Crook County ,054 Fremont County 4,196 5,313 5,795 6,220 6,533 6,769 Goshen County 1,313 1,608 1,646 1,661 1,677 1,657 Hot Springs County Johnson County 967 1,373 1,470 1,598 1,716 1,817 Laramie County 9,520 13,594 15,468 17,006 18,246 19,253 Lincoln County 1,640 2,190 2,342 2,555 2,751 2,914 Natrona County 7,615 9,893 11,521 12,985 14,078 14,984 Niobrara County Park County 2,702 3,662 3,984 4,299 4,555 4,749 Platte County 872 1,180 1,238 1,276 1,292 1,278 Sheridan County 3,294 3,899 4,285 4,652 4,964 5,200 Sublette County 823 1,553 1,717 2,016 2,336 2,668 Sweetwater County 3,062 4,256 4,987 5,399 5,639 5,771 Teton County 2,984 5,182 5,890 6,592 7,251 7,870 Uinta County 1,734 2,483 2,527 2,584 2,608 2,610 Washakie County Weston County Total 56,381 77,009 86,257 94, , ,901 City Casper city 5,420 7,088 8,295 9,566 10,464 11,137 Cheyenne city 6,570 7,726 9,005 10,121 11,048 11,747 Cody city 974 1,061 1,168 1,284 1,386 1,458 Evanston city 1,138 1,163 1,188 1,219 1,245 1,244 Gillette city 2,662 3,083 3,753 4,475 5,194 5,842 Green River city ,127 1,209 1,248 Jackson town 1,384 1,712 2,020 2,325 2,630 2,902 Laramie city 5,506 6,015 6,355 6,777 7,023 7,155 Rawlins city Riverton city 1,169 1,264 1,387 1,506 1,609 1,672 Rock Springs city 1,843 2,093 2,460 2,726 2,881 2,954 Sheridan city 2,222 2,406 2,649 2,879 3,088 3,247 Wyoming Housing Database Partnership 22 Final Report: April 7, 2017