MEXICO CITY: ENERGY, MOBILITY AND SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Transcription

1 MEXICO CITY: ENERGY, MOBILITY AND SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT Gabriel Quadri de la Torre Business Council for Sustainable Development - Mexico Honolulu, February 2003

2 INDEX I. GEOGRAPHIC LAYOUT II. III. IV. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO CITY MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE MOBILITY AND PRIVATE CARS V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY VI. VII. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC AIR QUALITY AND MOTOR VEHICLES IN MEXICO CITY VIII. MEXICO CITY: PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT IX. OUTLOOK

3 I. GEOGRAPHIC LAYOUT

4 II. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO CITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO CITY 120 METROPOLITAN AREA Millions barrels oil equivalent

5 II. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO CITY FUEL CONSUMPTION LP Gas 18% Diesel 9% Others 7% Natural Gas 35% Unleaded Gasoline 31%

6 II. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO CITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR IN MEXICO CITY (PERCENTAGE) ACTIVITY Transport Industry Residential and Services

7 II. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO CITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR IN MEXICO CITY (2000) Residential and Services 16% Transport 45% Industry 39%

8 III. MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE TRIPS IN MEXICO CITY Daily individual trips (mililons) Metrop. Edo.Mex. D.F. Total

9 III. MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE MODE SHARE OF TRIPS Taxi 2.6% Suburban buses 3.5% Private car 17.6% Others 0.9% Bus 6.7% Small buses 55.1% Metro 13.0% Troley 0.6%

10 III. MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE MODE SHARE EVOLUTION IN THE MEXICO CITY 100% 80% 60% % % % Metro Light rail, trolley bus Bus Minibuses, combis Taxis Private Autos

11 III. MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE This mode structure is utterly inefficient. It depends mostly on transport modes with a very high environmental and urban impact. (Gasoline powered minibuses and autos) This distorted structure worsens with time. As we know, mobility systems and mode shares that depend on transit or collective alternatives are associated with denser cities, more diverse land uses and less environmental and territorial impacts. In contrast, mode shares that depend mostly on private vehicles are associated with urban sprawl and a more segregated urban structure.

12 III. MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE TRANSIT SHARE IN TOTAL PASSENGER-KILOMETERS

13 III. MODE SHARE AND URBAN STRUCTURE Car use and kilometers driven are private decisions. However they depend on public decisions about roads and highways. Cars do not cause urban sprawl. Roads and highways do, and they are public decisions, underpinned by political processes.

14 IV. MOBILITY AND PRIVATE CARS Any sustainable horizon for the city most assume the concept of sustainable mobility or sustainable urban transport, which means: Freedom to move. Accessibility without sacrificing urban, environmental, social or human values. We need to ask several important questions: Is it possible to increase the number of vehicles and the number kilometers driven without limit?

15 IV. MOBILITY AND PRIVATE CARS Is it possible to enlarge without limit the road surface and the length of highway networks? Is it acceptable to increase the environmental, urban and social costs that these pervasive processes entails? To what extent the ever growing mobility of automobile users restricts mobility for the rest of population that lacks a private car?

16 IV. MOBILITY AND PRIVATE CARS Mobility is not the unique way to improve accessibility. There are other options like land use changes, land use intensification and diversification and telecommunications. Every transport mode implies different mobility and accessibility opportunities. Some times is a zero sum game. If mobility and accessibility for private cars are increased, mobility and accessibility for transit users may suffer.

17 IV. MOBILITY AND PRIVATE CARS It is important to recognize that mobility is not only a means to achieve accessibility. Frequently is an end in itself, given social and individual preferences. Evidently certain trips in private car dispense satisfaction to automobile users. Many people assign a heavy proportion of their income to acquire and enjoy automobiles. Private cars offer much more enjoyment than sole mobility.

18 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY In principle, freeways foster greater mobility and hence accessibility, making physical proximity less important for location in the city. Frequently, consumers or citizens give up proximity in exchange for other preferred amenities like open space, single family homes with private parking and gardens in a suburban setting. In consequence, freeways and roads and higher mobility for private vehicles become a major driving force for a urban structure characterized by urban sprawl, decentralization and suburbanization.

19 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY Urban sprawl grows faster than population, which results in a ever sparser city, lower densities and urban decay in downtowns. This is an evident process in Mexico City.

20 TOTAL POPULATION IN DOWNTOWN MEXICO CITY V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY 4,200,000 4,000,000 Millions 3,800,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 POPULATION SHARE, FEDERAL DISTRICT 3,000, ,668,986 2,922,323 2,800,000 2,600, ,570,361 2,969,798 5,471,735 3,017, ,037,409 3,198, ,721,896 4,109, ,785,089 4,089,076 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% None Core Urban Areas Downtown

21 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY DOWNTOWN MEXICO CITY. POPULATION DENSITY (HAB /Hectares)

22 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL AREA 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Non core urban areas Core urban areas

23 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY URBAN STRUCTURE DYNAMICS 1. Decaying downtown 2. Diversified first urban crown 3. Transition crown 4. Rural but rapidly suburbanizing outer crown

24 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY Urban decentralization and urban sprawl, low densities and land use specialization have three discernible impacts besides segregation and exclusion: 1. Low competitiveness of transit systems and further distortions of transport mode share. (Transit systems operate efficiently only when there exists a concentrated trip demand along urban corridors origin-destiny pairs.) 2. The need of more freeways to allow for an enhanced mobility for private cars. (In this scenario, automobiles become virtually the only accessibility means. Those who lack a private car suffer more exclusion and are put in an accessibility and mobility disadvantage).

25 V. CAR MOBILITY AND URBAN DECAY IN MÉXICO CITY 3. Urban degradation and environmental impact (Brought by the new freeways as a consequence of higher emissions, noise, accidents, segregation, non accessibility, and visual and scenic despair.)

26 VI. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC Most of the time urban planners think of traffic as a fluid that flows along roads, streets and freeways as if they were a pipeline network. However due to induced traffic, such a metaphor is not appropriate because traffic in most urban contexts behaves as an ever expanding gas which tends to occupy all available space. Vehicle use in urban settings is a good economic laws as other goods. that obeys The demand for kilometers driven in private cars obviously depend on the costs, income, preferences, prices of other related goods and urban structure. If costs are lower, kilometers driven in private cars will raise.

27 VI. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC In Mexico City as in the rest of the great cities of the world, trips in private car depend strongly on perceived costs and income, not on population growth. Income elasticity of vehicle ownership is on average greater than 2.0 in Mexico City. Mexico City has 3.4 million vehicles. VEHICLES REGISTRATION IN THE FEDERAL DISTRICT VEHICLES Automobiles 2,516,008 2,979,663 3,084,311 Buses 12,901 14,054 14,384 Lorries and heavy trucks 186, , ,451 Motorcycles 44,816 64,419 69,943 TOTAL 2,762,333 3,259,874 3,374,088

28 VI. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC DEMAND ELASTICITY OF TRAFFIC AND ROAD CAPACITY 100 Percentaje of new road capacity congested by induced traffic Time elapsed after a new road or freeway is built High elasticity Medium elasticity Low elasticity

29 VI. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC INDUCED TRAFFIC: TRAVEL DEMAND AND KILOMETERS DRIVEN IN PRIVATE CARS Cost C 0 C 1 Long term demand curve Short term demand curve X 0 X 3 X 1 X 2 * Number of trips * Distance traveled

30 VI. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC In the short term induced traffic implies a movement along the demand curve because the new road space supply makes vehicle use cheaper. In the long term induced traffic implies an outward movement of the demand curve itself, because land use, urban structure and mobility systems become more dependent on private cars. This is why people resort even more to the private automobile in order to keep the same accessibility to goods, services and activities (X2). When costs raise, once again as a consequence of congestion a new demand level is reached (X3) which will always be larger than the initial level X0. The length of the road and freeway network itself exerts a important influence on traffic volume.

31 VI. NEW ROADS AND INDUCED TRAFFIC ROAD CAPACITY AND INDUCED TRAFFIC Traffic Volume/Road Capacity Lineal Projection of Traffic Growth Stabilization and selflimitation of congestion Induced Traffic More road capacity Time Traffic growth whitout new capacity Traffic growth with new capacity

32 VII. AIR QUALITY AND MOTOR VEHICLES IN MEXICO CITY OZONE DAILY PEAKS (AVERAGE) IMECA

33 VII. AIR QUALITY AND MOTOR VEHICLES IN MEXICO CITY PM10 DAILY PEAKS (AVERAGE) IMECA

34 VII. AIR QUALITY AND MOTOR VEHICLES IN MEXICO CITY INVENTORY OF EMISSIONS 20.60% 36% 22.10% 80.70% 98% 84.70% 40.40% 57.30% 1.60% 4.60% 13.20% 1.50% 0.50% 1.10% 11.10% 3.10% 7.90% 15.60% NOx CO SO2 HC PM10 Point sources Area sources Vegetation and soils Mobile sources

35 VII. AIR QUALITY AND MOTOR VEHICLES IN MEXICO CITY EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT AGE CATEGORIES OF VEHICLES IN MEXICO CITY 100% 80% 60% % 20% 0% 60 Fleet Percent Share Emissions Contribution & older

36 VIII. MEXICO CITY: PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT MEXICO CITY TRANSPORT PROGRAM INVESTMENT BUDGET INVESTMENT (million pesos) Percentage 1. Elevated highways 1, Other highways and bypasses Metro 1, New buses New trolleys New taxis new small buses TOTAL 3,

37 IX. OUTLOOK Creating urban places and the urban structure itself is almost wholly a product of public, political and taxpayer-financed decisions. Government conduct development with its decisions on how to lay out the transport infrastructure of our cities. The most important public decision on urban structure is transportation. It will determine the character of the city (light rail, buses, highways, airports, high speed train lines, etc.). A city s external links to the outside world (freeways, train lines, airports, ports) will determine the potential of its industry and people.

38 IX. OUTLOOK A city s internal transportation network serves a different purpose than the external transportation system. The layout of a metropolis internal transportation will determine how people get to work, how they shop, how they recreate and how they live. The standard choice today in Mexico City and in many other cities of lacing a metropolitan area with big freeways for purely internal travel, means we will have a sprawling, formless environment, and of course, a more or less daunting air quality problem. Transportation policy must move towards integration with urban policy and towards actually designing sustainable cities.

39 IX. OUTLOOK As has been demonstrated in a number of cities (like Portland, Oregon), growth control laws and boundaries are an effective tool for shaping urban development towards sustainability. They help the public and planners to focus on where and how they want growth to occur. They foster urban infilling, downtown renewal and walkable cities, as well as a more diverse and more dense-human oriented urban environment. A city s political structure and governance system should match its physical, geographic and economic structure. Mexico City is politically fragmented with no coherent policies. Each jurisdiction is under a different political party and there is not any working metropolitan institution.

40 IX. OUTLOOK Obviously this situation must be changed. In spite of having different governing bodies, Mexico City is a single urban organism. The true City is the Metropolitan Area (Federal District + Municipalities of the State of Mexico. Ultimately, the political and governance structure of the City will determine its physical and economic structure. The citizens of our great metropolis should consider that they do themselves a disservice by resisting the idea of forming regional governance systems able to act in a metropolitan level. In the long term, metropolitan governance systems, plus credible and workable growth boundaries, an integrated urban policy centered on transit and public transport, and a new and more stringent regulatory framework aiming at ULEV and ZEV will do the trick for a sustainable and prosperous city.