AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND TRANSIT S LAST MILE

Transcription

1 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES AND TRANSIT S LAST MILE A STUDY OF THE METROPOLITAN ATLANTA REGIONAL TRANSIT AUTHORITY (MARTA) SYSTEM NATHANIEL HORADAM MASTER OF CITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING, CLASS OF 2018

2 THE DRIVERLESS FUTURE Source: save

3 AGENDA I. Introduction II. Connected Autonomous Vehicles III. Market Research IV. The MARTA System Today V. The MARTA Bus System Tomorrow VI. Next Steps

4 INTRODUCTION - ATLANTA S LAST MILE PROBLEM Source: Atlanta Regional Commission

5 INTRODUCTION - THE STATE OF TRANSIT Transit ridership is declining nationwide; between 2015 and 2016, Atlanta saw a 5.8% decrease across the MARTA system MARTA farebox recovery currently stands at 34%; cost per bus passenger trip at $3.63 over past fiscal year Within 10 years, transit agencies can deploy connected autonomous buses to increase system efficiency and improve farebox recovery

6 INTRODUCTION - RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES Literature Review Involved more than 50 published and unpublished works on topics ranging from connected and autonomous vehicles, intelligent transportation systems, shared mobility services, and transit applications for these innovations Interviews with Academic and Industry Experts Including: Lauren Isaac, EasyMile - North America Director of Business Initiatives Ben Limmer, MARTA Assistant General Manager for Planning Mike Hunter, Georgia Tech Center for Transportation Operations and Safety GIS Mapping Exploration of MARTA bus route design and surrounding demographics

7 THE CONNECTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE: TERMINOLOGY Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Provision of multimodal transportation options in a subscription model Autonomous Vehicle A vehicle capable of driving itself without human intervention Computer Vision Software that utilizes sensory equipment to provide a machine with an accurate picture of its surroundings in real-time Machine Learning Artificial intelligence powered by large-scale data processing Connected Vehicle A vehicle connected to wireless telecommunications networks Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Infrastructure that utilizes telecommunications technologies to improve transportation system performance Near-field communications (NFC) used to connect smart phones to payment V2X Vehicle to Everything communications, sometimes compartmentalized as V2V ( Vehicle to Vehicle ) or V2I ( Vehicle to Infrastructure )

8 THE CONNECTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE

9 THE CONNECTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE: TECHNOLOGY REVIEW Legacy System Connected System Autonomous System Hardware Inputs N/A V2X communications, NFC, networked computing Software Inputs N/A Customer/driver application interfaces, machine learning, cybersecurity, GPS Vehicle Size feet More data, dynamic routing allows smaller buses Ridership Data Swipe in/out, generic Collected through mobile applications, personalized Labor Route Design Driver trained on single or limited # of routes Determined by prior demand Driver managed by dynamic routing system More collection points, better data allows more responsive review Safety No difference Communication with other vehicles reduces collisions Omnidirectional cameras, Lidar, Radar, onboard CPU Computer vision, visual odometry onboard machine learning, Smaller, on-demand collectors Sensors capture overflow No driver, perhaps retained as customer service rep Flexible, determined by real-time demand, smallest Elimination of human error, bicycle & pedestrian safety increased

10 MARKET RESEARCH: ENABLING FACTORS 1. Smartphone adoption enables greater connectivity Source: Pew Research Center

11 MARKET RESEARCH: ENABLING FACTORS (CONT.) 2. Rise of ridehailing increases commuter demand for more effective mobility services Source: Deloitte

12 MARKET RESEARCH: ENABLING FACTORS (CONT.) 3. Market for transit in Atlanta is larger than current utilization Graphics courtesy of the Atlanta Regional Commission

13 MARKET RESEARCH: ENABLING FACTORS (CONT.) 4. Many South and West Atlanta households do not own personal vehicles, depend on transit for transportation

14 MARKET RESEARCH: SIZING THE 2025 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARKET 2025 Total Population (Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton Counties) 2,129,940 Smartphone Ownership 76% 1,100,753 MARTA s Autonomous Vehicle Market Technology Acceptability 68%

15 THE MARTA BUS SYSTEM TODAY Every bus route feeds a rail line, limiting the coverage area of network 30% of Atlantans surveyed in 2016 by ARC said they frequently cannot go where they need to go Asset replacement cycle Nearly half of MARTA s buses will be eligible for replacement between FY2025-FY2027

16 THE MARTA BUS SYSTEM TODAY: WEST ATLANTA

17 THE MARTA BUS SYSTEM TOMORROW

18 NEXT STEPS: LESSONS FROM OTHER CITIES Reno, Nevada Partnership between Proterra, University of Nevada Reno and municipal and state level groups Three-stage implementation Install sensors, collect data Set autonomous routes Create on-demand system Kansas City, Missouri Partnership between Bridj and public agencies $1.3 million for a 1-year pilot providing ondemand service Hailed via mobile application

19 NEXT STEPS: MARTA TO 2025 Connectivity 1. Mobile payments 2. Trip planning 3. Custom mobility solutions 4. Instrumentation of vehicles 5. Test on-demand service Automation 1. Integrate low-autonomy features 2. Research Atlanta s autonomy preferences 3. Run pilot programs 4. Market the technology