Kai Pollari, March 2016 Transformer Efficiency An opportunity for sustainability

Transcription

1 Kai Pollari, March 2016 Transformer Efficiency An opportunity for sustainability Slide 1

2 Tackling society s challenges on path to low-carbon era ABB helping customers do more using less Rise in electricity demand by 2035 (under current policies) Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 In thousand Terawatt-hours (TWh) % ABB power and automation solutions are: Meeting rising demand for electricity Increasing energy efficiency and reducing CO 2 emissions Improving productivity to raise competitiveness of businesses and utilities Electricity demand is calculated as the total gross electricity generated less own use in the production of electricity and transmission, and distribution losses. Slide 2

3 Leading the transition to digital grid Big shift in the electrical value chain Traditional grid New grid Slide 3 Vision of new grid (smart grid): More reliable, flexible, secure, monitored Lower power consumption / more efficient Greater use of renewable energy Transformation of grid to take place over several decades

4 Available technology can significantly increase efficiency Enormous potential for reducing losses along the energy chain Slide 4

5 ABB Transformers Overview of the strategy with innovation as a key pillar ABB Transformers address emerging market needs of modern's power grid Energy efficiency High quality & reliability Industrial productivity High efficient transformers Total cost of ownership method Proven robust design Low maintenance requirements Manufacturing 4.0 UHVAC & DC Pioneer spirit, high expertise & advanced R&D Renewables Line voltage regulators Booster transformers Smart technologies On-line monitoring Multiple intelligent electronic devices Slide 5

6 Transformer Efficiency Importance of energy efficiency Slide 6

7 Importance of energy efficiency Twin pillars of sustainable energy untieing the link between growth, energy use and emissions Meeting the energy challenge requires the world to: Reduce the correlation between economic growth and energy use Reduce the correlation between energy use and emissions Energy efficiency Renewable sources of energy Slide 7

8 Importance of energy efficiency Energy efficiency as the key mitigation method against climate change Slide 8

9 Importance of energy efficiency Global non-hydro renewables still less than T&D losses Source: REN21, 2015 Slide 9

10 Transformer Energy Efficiency UNEP Emission Gap Report (11/2015) To meet the 2 degree critical limit in global warming requires global emissions not to exceed 42 Gt CO2 in 2030 Baseline scenario is 65 Gt CO2 in 2030 Current policy trajectory 60 Gt CO2 in 2030 Trajectory including a full implemention of unconditional and conditional plans of emission cuts 54 Gt CO2 in 2030 A gap of 12 Gt CO2 remains this could be closed through a wide portfolio of mitigation measures including 1) energy efficiency & conservation 2) renewables & hydro power 3) CCS 4) nuclear Slide 10

11 Importance of energy efficiency What is energy efficiency / trafo adapted definition Percentage of total energy input to a transformer that is distributed further and not wasted as useless / harmful heat Slide 11

12 Transformer Efficiency Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Slide 12

13 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Infographics Slide 13

14 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency How efficient is your power grid? Over three percent of generated electrical energy is lost between the generating source and the end user due to losses in transformers. 22/07/2009 Slide 14

15 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Potential CO² emission reduction The losses in transformers today on the global transmission and distribution network equal approximately 700 TWh. 700 TWh can be converted into potential reduction of 350 megatons of Carbon Dioxide (CO²) per year which is equivalent to 250x Boeing jet airlines traveling around the globe 1,000 times. Slide 15

16 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Energy savings potential The most efficient transformers can reduce losses by up to 60% compared to the less efficient transformers in use today. 22/07/2009 Slide 16

17 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Energy savings potential By choosing energy efficient transformers, society could save one percent of the electricity generated, which corresponds to 350 TWh by the year TWh equals the total electricity consumption of United Kingdom in /07/2009 Slide 17

18 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) With the TCO method, the added cost to purchase due to higher efficiency and the lifetime savings in cost of operation due to the reduction of lost energy, can be evaluated: 22/07/2009 Slide 18 * based on a typical example case with a 25 MVA transformer

19 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Investment in energy efficiency pays back ABB can provide transformers with the lowest losses by utilizing the best materials available today and by optimizing the design and manufacturing processes. Financial advantages based on optimized TCO: For further information consult our new TCO on-line calculator at tcocalculator.abb.com. 22/07/2009 Slide 19

20 Potential and relevance of transformer efficiency Estimated value of network losses in 2011 (EIA, IEA) Network losses USA China EU Japan World Wholesale price (USD/MWh) Generation (TWh) Network losses (TWh) Wholesale value of losses (BUSD) Approx. final value of losses (BUSD) 12,2 14,9 19,5 4,8 113,4 21,5 22,6 32,3 8,0 186,3 Slide 20 Transformer losses (TWh) Wholesale value of losses (BUSD) Approx. Final value of losses (BUSD) 700 *) 44,3 72,9 *) ABB estimation

21 Transformer Efficiency Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) Slide 21

22 Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) Why MEPS the underlying challenge Technical solutions exist on the market leading to reduced energy consumption of transformers, but the market penetration of high efficient transformers is lower than it could be. (*) (*) European Commission Slide 22

23 Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) MEPS programs current global view Note: the ambition level and the scope of MEPS in different countries has considerable variations Slide 23

24 Regulations and standardisation Minimun Efficiency Standard (MEPS), general principle No. of Products Energy labeling (possible) Take away products with low efficiency R&D New Products MEPS Energy Efficiency Slide 24

25 Global loss evaluations Energy efficiency ranking (DTR) Approach Efficiency may be deduced either from the loss values or given as an efficiency factor For comparing the values we consider efficiency at 50% load Grouping is approximate since every standard is different and not coordinated Observations Category Ultra High might mean amorphous To a limit on total losses or efficiency there are many combinations of P 0, no load losses, and P k, load losses, possible, meaning more freedom to optimize, as opposed to fixed losses Note: not all of the categories listed are mandatory to meet Efficiency Categories Ultra high India 5 Star China NX-1 if AM Europe CE mark 2021 Very high Australia Hi efficiency 2010 China NX-1 if RGO India 4 Star Vietnam Eco label USA DOE 2016 High India 3 Star China NX-2 USA DOE 2010 Europe CE mark 2015 Average Australia Min efficiency 2010 India 2 Star China NX-3 Europe CkCo Low Australia Min efficiency 2004 India 1 Star China S9 Slide 25

26 Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) DOE calculated benefits and costs for equipment sold from Beginning in 2016, newly amended energy efficiency standards for distribution transformers Will save up to $12.9 billion in costs to consumers saving families and businesses money reducing energy consumption The new standards will also save 3.63 quadrillion British thermal units of energy for equipment sold over the 30-year period of 2016 to 2045 About million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions will be avoided, equivalent to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of about million automobiles Calculated annualized national economic value of the benefits: Cost savings of using less energy + Reduction in emissions including CO2 minus the increase in costs of equipment and installation Total benefits $827 million to $1.233 billion per year Incremental equipment costs of $266 to $282 million per year Results Net benefit of $561 to $950 million per year for the society DOE found the benefits outweigh the burdens Slide 26

27 CN EE Program - Overview DT EE improvement plan Objective: To 2017, improve high efficiency DT share to 14% in networks. Annual new installation high efficiency DT takes 70%. The cumulative high efficiency DT is 600,000MVA, to save power energy 9.4 billion kwh. Estimated high efficiency DT volume improvement 600,000MVA improvement Reference document CN Distribution Transformer EE improvement plan Issued by CN Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, AQSIQ & National Development and Reform Commission on 10- Aug-2015 Slide 27 Tasks: 6.6% 14% 2013 Distribution network takes more than 65% of total network investment Expand proportion of high efficiency DT and replace non-efficient DT from networks Enhance high efficiency DT manufacturing capacity Improve high efficiency DT supporting system construction Practice high efficiency DT demonstration base construction 2017

28 Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) vs. MEPS TCO strongly recommended by EC European Commission (in transformer regulation): To allow an effective implementation of the regulation, National Regulating Authorities are strongly advised to take account of the effect of minimum efficiency requirements on the initial cost of the transformer and to allow for the installation of more efficient transformers than the regulation requires, whenever these are economically justified on a whole life cycle basis, including an adequate evaluation of losses reduction. Slide 28

29 Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) New up-coming international standard to support The new up-coming IEC standard will be the first global reference point on recommended minimum efficiency levels Will provide two levels of suggested maximum losses / minimum efficiency Covers also large power transformers up to indefinite rating Will provide a description and a guideline for the calculation of Total Cost of Ownership Future local regulations may use IEC as a reference point Scheduled release of the standard is Q3/2016 Slide 29 May come first out as a TS (Technical Specification)

30 Transformer Efficiency Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method at glance Slide 30

31 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method at glance How much does a transformer really cost? The real cost of a transformer for the owner is the sum of the initial purchase price (first cost) plus the cost of running it for its useful life (typically of years) Purchase price Cost of Losses No Load Loss Load Loss Commissioning cost Life Cycle Cost Maintenance cost Cost of down-time (reliability) Purchasing decisions require the right balance between the initial purchase cost and the cost of future losses. A Reduction of energy losses normally leads to a higher initial cost Slide 31

32 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method at glance Total Cost of Ownership (TCO or aka. TOC) Provided that the MEPS (Minimum Efficiency Performance Standard) is fulfilled, use of proper loss capitalization for purchasing transformers is essential to select a transformer with the optimal economically justified level of efficiency. The way to consider it is by using TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) method The cost of losses comes into effect during transformer life time; losses costs are therefore converted to the moment of purchase (Net Present Value), by assigning their capitalized values A, B = ( + ) Po Pco Pk Pcs No Load Losses (NLL) Power consumption of cooling equipment at no load operation Load Losses (LL) Power consumption of cooling equipment at rated power operation Factors A, B ( /kw) depend on transformer loading conditions, as well as cost of capital, energy market forecasts, expected transformer life IC Initial Cost = = Slide 32

33 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method at glance Inputs needed for determination of A- and B-factors = = ( ) = = t is the operating hours per year (hours) i is the discount rate for the investment ( cost of money, WACC, in percentage) n is the expected lifetime of the transformer (years) is the cost of energy at the mid-life of the transformer Note; if annual increase of energy price is assumed to be constant, can be calculated using C, j & n C is the intitial cost of energy (in currency) j is the annual increase of energy price (in percentage) k is the average loading of the transformer during it s lifetime Slide 33

34 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method at glance Basic methods to reduce losses / simplified Ways to Reduce NL Losses Use better grade of core material Use thinner core steel laminations Use more turns in the coil Use a core with larger leg area Ways to Reduce Load Losses Use copper rather than aluminum (DTR) Use a conductor with a larger area Use fewer turns in the coil Use special means and materials in order to reduce eddy losses Transformer designers can alter the design to provide a solution with reduced noload, load losses or both. Improvement in performance and overall economy requires in most cases a more expensive transformer with possibly a larger footprint A trade off is required between high efficiency (high initial cost) and life cycle cost savings (loss evaluation) when improving transformer efficiency Slide 34

35 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) method at glance Example / development of core steel grades Production Start 1953 (cold-rolled) 3 Z 0.35mm Iron loss W 17/50 (W/kg) Z 0.30mm ZH 0.30mm Production Start 1983 (HI-B laser ) Production Start 1967 (HI-B) ZH 0.23mm ZDKH 0.23mm ZDMH 0.23mm Slide 35 Source: NSC

36 NET ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT It can argued that the upfront environmental cost of improving efficiency should be taken into account. High efficiency transformers safe energy & CO2 emissions, but what about the energy to produce the additional materials to improve transformer efficiency? Lifecycle assessment demonstrates that over 99% of the environmental impact of a distribution transformer can be attributed to its lifetime electricity losses. For example, improving the efficiency of a 1600 kva transformer will save 400 tons of CO2over the equipment's lifetime, while using an extra 700 kg of copper, causing 2 tons of CO2emissions. In this case, the environmental payback is a factor Moreover, copper & other materials can be recycled with much lower CO2 emissions at the end of the transformer's lifetime. Slide 36

37 Transformer Energy Efficiency Potential benefits on power transformer performance Scenario: Low loss requirements / high capitalisation values Engineering balances flux density and material quality Iron Losses capitalization effect other than lower losses: Higher overvoltage capabilities to better withstand network voltage and frequency fluctuations if flux density is lowered in the design Lower sound level Lower hot spot temperature on the core steel, thus reduced ageing of core insulation Copper Losses capitalization effect other than lower losses: Higher reliability during short circuit events due to lower mechanical stresses Lower winding hot spots for the same cooling, increasing winding insulation life expectancy Increased overload capability for the same cooling Less cooling equipment for the same temperature limits Lower sound level Lower Auxiliary losses Month DD, Year Slide 37

38 Transformer Efficiency ABB TCO tool Slide 38

39 TCO Tool / A Quick Guide Slide 39

40 ABB TCO tool What it does TCO tool is an universal easy-to-use tool for 1. Determining the transformer loss capitalization values ( A and B factors) 2. Comparing transformers with different first cost and loss values from the following aspects Total cost of ownership with payback time on marginal cost Consumption of energy CO2 emission impact (in kg of CO2) with analogue to the number of trees needed to compensate the extra emissions caused by the trafo with lower efficiency Calculation formulas are based on IEC (current draft) on applicable parts Slide 40

41 ABB TCO tool Interface 1 i-buttons for help Slide 41

42 ABB TCO tool Interface 2 i-buttons for help Slide 42

43 ABB TCO tool Interface / comparison and results Peak efficiency index (IEC) is the highest efficiency that the transformer can reach at an optima loading point. It is calculated based on the IEC definition of efficiency. Total cost of ownership is the sum of the initial purchase cost and the net present value of the cost of losses during the lifetime. In this calculation, differences in other lifecycle cost components such as installation, maintenance, possible out-time and decommission costs are not included. Total lifetime savings during the lifetime of the transformer in selected currency when comparing the Lowest total cost and the transformer x. Energy savings per year and total The amount of energy saved when selecting the Lowest total cost instead of transformer x. CO2 emission reduction per year The amount of CO2 emission avoided in tons when selecting the Lowest total cost instead of transformer x. Calculated using the global average CO2 emission of 489 g per kwh generated. CO2 absorption capability of trees The number of trees needed to offset the higher CO2 emissions caused by a transformer with lower efficiency based on the average annual absorption capability of 22 kg of CO2 by a single tree. Payback time in years for the marginal investment on the higher efficiency when comparing the Lowest total cost and the transformer x. Simple payback calculation method. Slide 43

44 Conclusion The essence of TCO method The purchase decision of a transformers should be based on the optimum design and taking in account the lifecycle cost The use of TCO method allows the manufacturers to tailor the design to the unique situation of each customer, and allows the customer to evaluate multiple designs in order to find out the optimal solution for his need With the TCO method the sum of the cost of purchase and the lifetime cost of operation due to the lost energy can be evaluated Slide 44

45 Transformer Efficiency United for Efficiency (U4E) Slide 45

46 United for Efficiency (U4E) ABB joined United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) d ABB is participating the United Nations initiative, providing expertise on energy efficient transformers to help governments devise policies that accelerate energy savings ABB will share know-how related to energy efficiency in transformers ABB will share its experience with current policies, regulations and standards ABB will advice on potential applications for the best available technologies The opportunities for savings are vast: Transformers account for about 3 percent of global electricity consumption Their number in emerging markets is set to almost triple by 2030 The most efficient transformers consume 80 percent less electricity than the least efficient Slide 46

47 United for Efficiency (U4E) UNEP project Slide 47

48 United for Efficiency (U4E) Chile Slide 48

49 United for Efficiency (U4E) Chile Slide 49

50 Transformer Efficiency Conclusion Slide 50

51 Transformer Energy Efficiency ABB Transformers Energy Efficiency Message Virtually all the generated electrical energy has to go through several transformers before it can be used. ABB endorses Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) as a policy to prevent transformers with lower efficiencies from entering onto the network ABB promotes the use of the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) methodology ABB is fully ready today to supply transformers with higher efficiency performance than MEPS requires today ABB, as the market leader in the industry, and as a socially responsible company, actively participates in the global standardization committees Slide 51 Group June 5, 2015 Slide 3

52 Power and productivity for a better world ABB s vision A leader in addressing power infrastructure and control needs for utilities, industry and transport & infrastructure A leader in operational asset effectiveness uptime, speed, yield and efficiency Update Contributing to decoupling growth from environmental impact Less energy per unit GDP Less pollution per unit energy Slide 52

53 ABB Transformer Energy Efficiency...for a better tomorrow Slide 53

54 ABB TCO tool & information on transformer efficiency Free-access from transformer EE portal in abb.com Slide 54

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