Sustainable Biofuels: Challenges and Prospects from a Global Perspective

Transcription

1 Biofuels: Challenges and Prospects from a Global Perspective Uwe R. Fritsche Coordinator, Energy & Climate Division Öko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology), Darmstadt Office presented at the Energy and Environment: Technology and Policy Innovations (SEE2006) Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, November 21-23, 2006

2 Overview About Öko-Institut Background: World Energy Challenges Which Electricity Option? Which Transport Fuel Option? Opportunities Sustainability of biofuels? Standards for Biofuels The Way Forward Vision & more Information

3 Öko-Institut Research Divisions Energy & Climate Environmental Law Industry & Infrastructure Freiburg Office Darmstadt Office Berlin Office Products & Material Flows Nuclear & Plant Safety private, non-profit environmental research, founded in 1977; staff > 100 in 2006; local to global scope of (net)work

4 Background: World Energy Primary Energy, in ExaJoules (EJ) Region total renewables biomass hydro RE share Africa 21,5 10,8 10,5 0,3 50% Latin America 18,8 5,2 3,3 1,9 28% Asia 48,2 16,1 15,0 0,6 33% China 48,4 10,0 9,0 1,0 21% Non-OECD Europe 4,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 9% Former USSR 39,5 1,2 0,4 0,9 3% Middle East 16,3 0,1 0,0 0,1 1% OECD 223,3 12,7 6,8 4,4 6% World 420,3 56,6 45,2 9,3 13% Global Resources (EJ/a) Current use Technical potential Eco-potential Hydro > Solar 0.2 >1, Wind Geothermal 1.2 >1, Ocean -?? TOTAL 56.6 >4,000 ± 1000

5 Biofuel Challenges cent/kwhel 2 coal ST nuclear gas CC cogen gas ICE cogen biogas ICE cogen woodgas ICE cogen wind onshore mini-hydro solar PV el. efficiency 0 cost for new electricity generation systems in year 2010, data for 7% real interest rate, including by-product credit; source: GEMIS 4.4 (Oct. 2006)

6 Transport Fuels Incremental Oil Demand ; figures from IEA (2004)

7 1 st st Generation EtOH Gasoline high Gasoline low Ligno-EtOH straw Ligno-EtOH straw > 2010 EtOH wheat high EtOH wheat low EtOH corn high EtOH corn low EtOH sugarbeet high EtOH sugarbeet low EtOH sugarcane high EtOH sugarcane low 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 cost O & M cost Other cost Source: Girard/Fallot (2005); data are given in US$/l of fuel. In the case of gasoline, full cost is given for comparison. Low and high prices correspond to different world market prices. These figures are only indicative as great variation occurs and the detail of the cost breakdown is not always provided. The largest part of other cost is capital cost.

8 1 st Generation Biodiesel Diesel high Diesel low Biodiesel rapeseed long-term Biodiesel rapeseed high Biodiesel rapeseed low Biodiesel jatropha Biodiesel soybean high Biodiesel soybean low cost O & M cost Other cost Source: Girard/Fallot (2005); data are given in US$/l of fuel. Diesel oil costs are full cost, fluctuation depending on the oil price. Long-term cost of biodiesel is an estimate on the basis of better use of co-products.

9 2 nd Generation Biofuels Diesel high Diesel low MeOH 80 MW th MeOH 2,000 MW th DME BtL from black liquor BtL long-term BtL short-term high BtL short-term low cost O & M cost Other cost Source: Girard/Fallot (2005); data are given in US$/l of fuel. Diesel oil costs are full cost, fluctuation depending on the oil price. MeOH = methanol from wood; DME = processed MeOH; BtL = Fischer-Tropsch diesel from woody biomass.

10 Biofuels (2010) CO2 eq. CO gasoline diesel rapeoil RME GHG emissions from biofuels for transport; data in g/kwh input incl. upstream life-cycles and by-product credits (from: GEMIS 4.4) Palm oil H-palm oil EtOH-EU EtOH-Brazil EtOH-corn EtOH-wheat biogas maize

11 Biofuels (2030) CO2 eq. CO gasoline diesel Palm oil EtOH-Brazil GHG emissions from biofuels for transport; data in g/kwh input incl. upstream life-cycles and by-product credits (from: GEMIS 4.4) BtL-SRF EtOH-ligno maize EtOH-ligno wheat biogas maize Jatropha

12 A Biofuel Typology Fuel Feedstock Regions where currently produced GHG reduction v. petroleum Production cost Biofuels yield per hectare Land types 1 st generation biofuels, commercially available Ethanol Biodiesel FAME) (SVO, grains (wheat, maize) oil seeds (rape, soy, sunflower) US, Europe, China US, Europe low-moderate low-moderate moderate moderate moderate 1 st generation biofuels (commercially available mainly in developing countries) low croplands croplands Ethanol Biodiesel FAME) Ethanol Biodiesel (BTL) Biodiesel FAME) Biogas (SNG, GtL) (SVO, (SVO, sugar cane palm oil 2 nd generation biofuels (not yet commercially available) cellulosic biomass, residues cellulosic biomass, residues jatropha biomass, residues Brazil, India, Thailand Southeast Asia none none Southeast Asia, Africa Europe high moderate high high other high high low-moderate low-moderate moderate-high* moderate-high* moderate-high** moderate high moderate-high high high low-moderate high croplands coastal lands croplands, marginal lands croplands, marginal lands degraded lands based on Fulton (2005); *= could be reduced > 2015; **= could be low/moderate in rural settings all land

13 Opportunities Oil price: biofuels competitive in heat/ electricity sector; in some cases also transport (rural, Brazil) Biogas from residues + perennial crops in cogeneration are best (< 2015) New biofuels for transport (2 nd gen. > 2015) CDM could boost biofuels Employment effects, access to energy, income generation ( food security) Sustainability of biofuels?

14 ? based on IEA (2005), adjusted by Öko-Institut

15 ? resources Supply systems Conversion End products Agricultural crops and residues Oil bearing plants Woody biomass Harvesting, collection, handling and storage Biochemical (fermentation) Thermochemical (esterification) Transportation fuels (biodiesel, bioethanol) Heat Electricity Industrial and municipal waste Physical/chemical Solid fuels (wood pellets, charcoal) Integrating research themes across the value chain: environmental and economic sustainability, fuel standards and conformity assessment issues, greenhouse gas balances, barriers to deployment, etc. based on IEA (2005), adjusted by Öko-Institut

16 Biofuels? NGO initiatives EUGENE, FSC, RSPO etc.: electricity, palm, food, flowers, timber (voluntary) UNF/CURES Conference: North-South Dialogue Governmental Initiatives national initiatives (BE, NL, UK) UN Biofuels Initiative (UNCTAD et al.); FAO/WWI: UN Energy Paper (CSD-15) UBA input to GBEP, EU Study (2007) IEA Bioenergy Task 40 report (2007) Private Sector AT, CH, DE, NL, SE biofuel imports

17 Sustainability Standards Results of the study Sustainability Standards for prepared for WWF,, Nov Synopsis of sustainability concerns for biomass Global review of existing bio-related sustainability criteria and certification systems Recommendation of core standards, and for follow-up process

18 Leakage from Biofuels? Forests Deforestation? competition for water? Energy crops & plantations Food crops Loss of biodiversity? Protected & other reserved areas Source: presentation of Philippe Girard at the GEF-STAP Workshop, New Delhi 2005

19 Standards: Environment Core issues of Öko-Institut Study for WWF: Priority land-use rule: biocrops primarily on degraded land in developing countries (no leakage ), and on agricultural land in industrialized countries (excl. pastures) No additional negative impacts on biodiversity (protection area exclusion via satellite + GIS) No additional erosion or impacts on surface/ ground water Maximum standards for GHG emissions from cropping and conversion (see study)

20 Standards: Social Core issues of Öko-Institut Study for WWF: Priority rule for land-use implicitly also for social issues (food security) Land-use and worker rights (ILO) Health of workers + neighbors (ILO, good governance) already good definition in existing systems (e.g., FSC, RSPO, ILO)

21 Standards: Summary Only two standards (land use + GHG reduction) have global scope, both could be implemented within a few years if resources are made available

22 The Way Ahead Substantiation of Standards FAO/UNEP work on land-use, EU/G8, IEA Bioenergy Task 40 GHG accounting methods + data: UNFCCC for CDM; support from EU, JP, US? Step-wise Implementation German ordinances for biofuel quota + EEG; EU regulation; bilateral trade/wto rules best practise projects (GEF, IDB ) Consultative process (NGO, industry) participation of developing countries?

23 Global Pattern 2030 = oil-export = oil & bio domestic = bio-export = bio domestic Source: IEA (2005)

24 Vision: Beyond IEA Outlook 2000 Primary Energy Use, in EJ/year Demand Business-As- Usual energy savings from increased efficiency 500 all renewables fossil fuels + nuclear Your lifetime?

25 More Information Report for WWF and studies for BMU, EEA etc.: /service service/bio