Unemployment by Constituency, January 2017

Transcription

1 BRIEFING PAPER Number 7868, 18 January 2017 Unemployment by Constituency, January 2017 By Marianne O'Neill Jennifer Brown Feargal McGuinness Contents: 1. National employment and unemployment data 2. Constituency data 3. Claimant levels and rates by constituency 4. Information about sources, methods and copyright

2 2 Unemployment by Constituency, January 2017 Contents Summary 3 1. National employment and unemployment data Unemployment and the claimant count Employment Vacancies Inactivity Earnings 6 2. Constituency data Introduction of Universal Credit Highest and lowest claimant rates Claimant levels and rates by constituency Information about sources, methods and copyright Sources and copyright Treatment of Universal Credit Claimant rate methodology Notes and abbreviations 35 Cover page image: Crown copyright. All rights reserved. House of Commons Library (OS) and (OSNI) 2085 (2017). Claimant data from ONS Nomis, DWP Stat-Xplore and House of Commons Library calculations

3 3 Unemployment by Constituency, January 2017 Summary This paper contains claimant count figures for parliamentary constituencies, as well as a summary of the latest labour market statistics for the UK as a whole. The Library has revised the methodology used to calculate constituency claimant rates in this edition of Unemployment by Constituency, following the release of new constituency population estimates for mid-2015 and to reflect recent changes in economic activity at the national and regional level. Therefore the claimant rates included in this month s paper are not comparable with the rates shown in previous editions of Unemployment by Constituency, although in most cases the effect of the change is very small. We have also changed the source we use to extract claimant data, in order to improve the accuracy of the data. This means claimant data are now rounded to the nearest five. The number of people claiming Jobseeker s Allowance or claiming Universal Credit and required to seek work was 797,800 in December 2016, down 10,100 from November. The unemployment rate was 4.8% in September-November The ILO measure of unemployment was 1.60 million people, 52,000 fewer than the previous quarter and 81,000 fewer than the year before. The number of people in employment was million in September-November 2016, down slightly from the previous quarter and 294,000 more than the year before. The employment rate was 74.5%. Average weekly total pay in Great Britain increased by 2.8% in the three months to November 2016 compared with the previous year. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) also grew by 2.7%. CPI inflation averaged 1.0% over this period.

4 4 Unemployment by Constituency, January National employment and unemployment data 1.1 Unemployment and the claimant count ILO unemployment was 1.60 million in September-November 2016, 52,000 fewer than the previous quarter and 81,000 fewer than a year ago. 1 The unemployment rate was 4.8% (the percentage of the economically active population who are unemployed). It has not been lower since July-September 2005 (when it was 4.7%) and compares to a post-recession high of 8.5% in late The claimant count (the number of people claiming Jobseeker s Allowance plus the number of people claiming Universal Credit who are required to seek work) decreased by 10,100 between November and December 2016, to 797,800 people aged 18 or over. 2 The claimant count was 26,900 higher than in December Millions of people unemployed UK, seasonally adjusted Looking for and available for work (ILO definition) JSA claimants or UC claimants who are required to seek work (claimant count) Measuring unemployment Two sets of statistics may be used to track unemployment. The standard international measure is the ILO definition, which includes everyone looking for and available for work whether or not they are claiming benefits. This is measured using surveys. Data for constituencies and local authorities have a time lag and are subject to more sampling uncertainty. The claimant count is the number of people claiming Jobseeker s Allowance plus the number of people claiming Universal Credit who are required to seek work. This is more timely and is available for local areas, but can be affected by changes to benefit rules. 1 Much of the data in this section, such as ILO unemployment and employment, are based on estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). As these are liable to sampling variability, small changes in the figures should be interpreted with caution as they may be a result of sampling error. More information on sampling variability is available in Table A11 of ONS Labour Market Statistics bulletin. 2 Figures for claimants aged 18+ are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of changes to the claimant count that tend to happen every year. Claimant data for constituencies later in this paper are not seasonally adjusted. Section 2 looks at patterns and trends in the non-seasonally adjusted constituency data.

5 5 Unemployment by Constituency, January ,000 young people aged were unemployed, 52,000 lower than the previous quarter and 57,000 fewer than a year ago. There were 3.95 million young people in work in September-November 2016, up 19,000 from the previous quarter and down 32,000 from a year ago. The unemployment rate for year olds was 12.7%, down from 13.7% a year ago. 407,000 people had been unemployed for over 12 months, 36,000 fewer than the previous quarter and 83,000 lower than a year ago. On a country and regional basis the unemployment rate was highest in the North East (6.8%) and lowest in the South East (3.4%). Regional data are more volatile than data at the UK level. 1.2 Employment million people were in employment in September-November Employment was down slightly from the previous quarter and up 294,000 from the year before. The employment rate (the proportion of the population aged in work) was 74.5%. This compares to a post-recession low of 70.1% in July-September million women were in work in September-November 2016, 55,000 more than the previous quarter and up 204,000 from the year before. The female employment rate was 69.9%. Recent increases in the female employment rate are partly due to ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women million men were in work, down 63,000 from the previous quarter and up 91,000 from the year before. The male employment rate was 79.1% Annual change in employment to September-November 2016 Thousands All people Men Women Part time Full time Full-time employment increased by 23,000 over the quarter, to million. Although male full-time employment was almost down 72,000 on the previous quarter, the number of women working fulltime increased by 95,000. Part-time employment fell by 32,000 over the quarter to 8.55 million. The number of men working part-time was up 9,000 but the number of women working part-time was down 41,000.

6 6 Unemployment by Constituency, January million people worked as employees; a slight decrease over the quarter but an increase of 144,000 over the year. The number of people who are self-employed fell by 17,000 over the quarter but rose by 133,000 over the year, to 4.77 million. 1.3 Vacancies There were 748,000 job vacancies in October-December 2016, down slightly on the previous quarter and on the previous year. 1.4 Inactivity 8.89 million people aged were economically inactive (not in work and not looking for work) in September-November 2016, 85,000 more than the previous quarter but 63,000 fewer than the previous year million men aged were economically inactive in September to November 2016, up 74,000 on the previous quarter and up 43,000 on the previous year. The number of women who are economically inactive was up 11,000 on the previous quarter but was down 106,000 on the previous year, at 5.51 million. The inactivity rate (the proportion of the population aged who are economically inactive) was 21.7%. 1.5 Earnings Average weekly total pay in Great Britain increased by 2.8% in the three months to November 2016 compared with the previous year. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew by 2.7%. CPI inflation averaged 1.0% over this period Real average weekly earnings November 2016 prices, adjusted for CPI inflation Including bonuses Excluding bonuses Average total pay was 3.1% higher in the private sector and 1.3% higher in the public sector compared with the previous year. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew by 3.0% in the private sector and 1.4% in the public sector.

7 7 Unemployment by Constituency, January Constituency data Statistics on Jobseeker s Allowance (JSA) and Universal Credit (UC) claimants are one part of a large selection of labour market data released on a monthly basis. Unlike the national figures shown earlier in this paper, figures for local areas are not seasonally adjusted and so reflect changes to the claimant count that tend to happen every year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the number of people claiming JSA or who were claiming UC and were required to seek work was 753,200 in December 2016, down 6,700 from the previous month. National data taking seasonal factors into account show that the number of claimants decreased by 10,100 between November and December 2016, to 797, The table in section 3 shows figures for each constituency on this nonseasonally adjusted basis, along with figures for countries and regions. 2.1 Introduction of Universal Credit The introduction of Universal Credit, a new benefit which is replacing income-based JSA and certain other benefits, means that there are some jobseekers receiving benefits who are not claiming JSA. Rollout of UC commenced in April 2013 and is progressing in stages. Therefore, simply looking at the number of JSA claimants may not give an accurate reflection of the number of people looking for work. 4 At December 2016, there were 254,500 people in the UK who were claiming Universal Credit and were required to seek work (not seasonally adjusted). These statistics are provisional. The maps on the following pages show how the claimant count varies across the UK. The first map shows the areas which have the highest proportion of economically active people who are claiming JSA or UC. The second map shows the annual percentage change in the number of unemployed claimants (people claiming JSA or not in employment and claiming UC). 3 Figures on the number of unemployed people claiming benefits are affected by changes to benefit rules see Section 4.4 for a discussion of recent changes. 4 Statistics on Universal Credit are published by the Department for Work and Pensions. A list of jobcentres affected, along with the date that Universal Credit was rolled out in that area, is published in Table 4.1 of the DWP statistical release.

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12 12 Unemployment by Constituency, January Highest and lowest claimant rates Claimant rate as % of economically active population aged % Rate 1 Birmingham, Ladywood 9.3% 2 Foyle 8.6% 3 Birmingham, Hodge Hill 8.6% 4 Middlesbrough 8.1% 5 Belfast West 7.2% 6 Birmingham, Perry Barr 7.1% 7 Birmingham, Erdington 7.0% 8 South Shields 6.7% 9 Belfast North 6.6% 10 Birmingham, Hall Green 6.4% : : 641 Buckingham 0.6% 642 Mid Sussex 0.6% 643 South East Cambridgeshire 0.6% 644 York Outer 0.6% 645 Westmorland and Lonsdale 0.5% 646 Henley 0.5% 647 South Cambridgeshire 0.5% 648 North East Hampshire 0.5% 649 Kenilworth and Southam 0.5% 650 Stratford-on-Avon 0.5% Number of claimants All people claiming JSA or claiming UC and required to seek work Number 1 Birmingham, Ladywood 5,555 2 Birmingham, Hodge Hill 3,960 3 Foyle 3,720 4 Birmingham, Perry Barr 3,475 =4 Leeds Central 3,475 6 Middlesbrough 3,395 7 Croydon North 3,355 8 Birmingham, Erdington 3,235 9 Birmingham, Hall Green 3, Belfast North 2,960 : : : =641 Stone 280 =641 Mole Valley Derbyshire Dales York Outer 260 =644 Henley 260 =644 North East Hampshire Orkney and Shetland Westmorland and Lonsdale Stratford-on-Avon Kenilworth and Southam 185

13 13 Unemployment by Constituency, January 2017 Claimants aged year olds claiming JSA or claiming UC and required to seek work Number 1 Birmingham, Ladywood 1,015 2 Birmingham, Hodge Hill Foyle Middlesbrough Birmingham, Hall Green Hartlepool Belfast West Leeds Central Belfast North Birmingham, Erdington 645 : : : =639 South Cambridgeshire Buckingham Wantage South West Surrey Mole Valley 35 =645 Westmorland and Lonsdale 35 =645 Henley 35 =645 North East Hampshire 35 =645 Stratford-on-Avon Kenilworth and Southam 30 Annual percentage change in number of claimants All people claiming JSA or claiming UC and required to seek work % change 1 Harrogate and Knaresborough Feltham and Heston Croydon South Rugby North East Somerset Skipton and Ripon West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Carshalton and Wallington Bath Croydon Central 44.5 : : : 641 Torfaen Lagan Valley North West Leicestershire Fermanagh & South Tyrone Newry & Armagh West Tyrone Mid Ulster South Down Leicester East Upper Bann UC = Universal Credit. Data on claimants aged are rounded to the nearest five.

14 Aberavon Aberconwy Aberdeen North 1, , Aberdeen South 1, Airdrie and Shotts 1, Aldershot Aldridge-Brownhills Altrincham and Sale West Alyn and Deeside Amber Valley Angus 1, Arfon Argyll and Bute Arundel and South Downs Ashfield 1, Ashford 1, Ashton-under-Lyne 1, Aylesbury Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 1, , Banbury Banff and Buchan 1, Barking 2, , Barnsley Central 1, Barnsley East 1, Barrow and Furness 1, Basildon and Billericay 1, Basingstoke Bassetlaw 1, Bath Batley and Spen 1, Battersea 1, Beaconsfield Beckenham Bedford 1, , Belfast East 1, ,

15 Belfast North 2, ,961.. Belfast South 1, ,643.. Belfast West 2, ,743.. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 2, ,064 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Berwick-upon-Tweed Bethnal Green and Bow 2, , Beverley and Holderness Bexhill and Battle Bexleyheath and Crayford Birkenhead 1, ,035 Birmingham, Edgbaston 2, , Birmingham, Erdington 3, , Birmingham, Hall Green 3, ,975 1,131 Birmingham, Hodge Hill 3, ,883 1,080 Birmingham, Ladywood 5, , , ,463 1,087 Birmingham, Northfield 2, , Birmingham, Perry Barr 3, , Birmingham, Selly Oak 2, , Birmingham, Yardley 2, , Bishop Auckland 1, Blackburn 1, , Blackley and Broughton 2, ,673 1,007 Blackpool North and Cleveleys 1, Blackpool South 2, ,004 1,187 Blaenau Gwent 1, , Blaydon 1, Blyth Valley 1, , Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Bolsover Bolton North East 2, , Bolton South East 2, ,089 1,123 Bolton West 1, Bootle 2, ,103 1,407 Boston and Skegness 1,

16 Bosworth Bournemouth East 1, Bournemouth West Bracknell Bradford East 2, , Bradford South 1, , Bradford West 2, , Braintree Brecon and Radnorshire Brent Central 2, , Brent North 1, Brentford and Isleworth 1, ,531 Brentwood and Ongar Bridgend Bridgwater and West Somerset 1, ,010 Brigg and Goole Brighton, Kemptown 1, Brighton, Pavilion Bristol East 1, Bristol North West Bristol South 1, Bristol West 1, , Broadland Bromley and Chislehurst Bromsgrove Broxbourne Broxtowe Buckingham Burnley 1, Burton Bury North 1, Bury South 1, Bury St Edmunds Caerphilly 1, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

17 Calder Valley Camberwell and Peckham 2, , Camborne and Redruth Cambridge Cannock Chase Canterbury Cardiff Central 1, , Cardiff North Cardiff South and Penarth 1, , Cardiff West 1, , Carlisle Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Carshalton and Wallington 1, ,274 Castle Point Central Ayrshire 1, , Central Devon Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Ceredigion Charnwood Chatham and Aylesford 1, Cheadle Chelmsford Chelsea and Fulham 1, Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chesterfield Chichester Chingford and Woodford Green Chippenham Chipping Barnet Chorley 1, Christchurch Cities of London and Westminster 1, City of Chester

18 City of Durham Clacton 1, , Cleethorpes 1, Clwyd South Clwyd West Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill 1, Colchester 1, Colne Valley 1, Congleton Copeland Corby Coventry North East 1, , Coventry North West 1, Coventry South 1, Crawley Crewe and Nantwich Croydon Central 2, ,821 Croydon North 3,355 1, ,407 Croydon South 1, ,093 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East 1, Cynon Valley 1, Dagenham and Rainham 1, , Darlington 2, , Dartford Daventry Delyn Denton and Reddish 1, Derby North Derby South 1, Derbyshire Dales Devizes Dewsbury 1, Don Valley 1, Doncaster Central 1, , Doncaster North 1, ,

19 Dover 1, , Dudley North 1, , Dudley South 1, , Dulwich and West Norwood 1, , Dumfries and Galloway 1, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Dundee East 1, Dundee West 2, , Dunfermline and West Fife 1, Dwyfor Meirionnydd Ealing Central and Acton 1, , Ealing North 1, , Ealing, Southall 1, , Easington 1, , East Antrim 1, ,474.. East Devon East Dunbartonshire East Ham 1, , East Hampshire East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 1, East Londonderry 1, ,976.. East Lothian 1, ,155 East Renfrewshire East Surrey East Worthing and Shoreham East Yorkshire 1, Eastbourne 1, Eastleigh Eddisbury Edinburgh East 1, Edinburgh North and Leith 1, Edinburgh South Edinburgh South West 1, Edinburgh West Edmonton 2, ,

20 Ellesmere Port and Neston Elmet and Rothwell Eltham 1, Enfield North 1, , Enfield, Southgate Epping Forest Epsom and Ewell Erewash 1, Erith and Thamesmead 1, , Esher and Walton Exeter Falkirk 1, Fareham Faversham and Mid Kent Feltham and Heston 2, ,976 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 1, ,503.. Filton and Bradley Stoke Finchley and Golders Green 1, Folkestone and Hythe 1, , Forest of Dean Foyle 3, ,722.. Fylde Gainsborough 1, Garston and Halewood 1, Gateshead 2, , Gedling Gillingham and Rainham 1, Glasgow Central 2, , Glasgow East 2, , Glasgow North 1, , Glasgow North East 2, , Glasgow North West 1, , Glasgow South 1, Glasgow South West 2, , Glenrothes 1, ,

21 Gloucester 1, Gordon Gosport Gower Grantham and Stamford Gravesham 1, Great Grimsby 2, , Great Yarmouth 2, ,884 Greenwich and Woolwich 1, , Guildford Hackney North and Stoke Newington 2, , Hackney South and Shoreditch 2, , Halesowen and Rowley Regis 1, Halifax 1, , Haltemprice and Howden Halton 1, ,406 Hammersmith 2, ,184 1,223 Hampstead and Kilburn 1, , Harborough Harlow Harrogate and Knaresborough Harrow East Harrow West Hartlepool 2, , Harwich and North Essex Hastings and Rye 1, , Havant Hayes and Harlington 1, , Hazel Grove Hemel Hempstead Hemsworth Hendon 1, Henley Hereford and South Herefordshire Hertford and Stortford

22 Hertsmere Hexham Heywood and Middleton 1, High Peak Hitchin and Harpenden Holborn and St Pancras 1, , Hornchurch and Upminster 1, Hornsey and Wood Green 1, , Horsham Houghton and Sunderland South 1, , Hove 1, Huddersfield 1, , Huntingdon Hyndburn 1, Ilford North Ilford South 1, , Inverclyde 1, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 1, Ipswich 1, , Isle of Wight 1, , Islington North 2, , Islington South and Finsbury 1, , Islwyn 1, Jarrow 1, , Keighley 1, Kenilworth and Southam Kensington 1, Kettering Kilmarnock and Loudoun 1, , Kingston and Surbiton Kingston upon Hull East 1, , Kingston upon Hull North 2, , Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle 2, , Kingswood Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 1, ,

23 Knowsley 2, ,334 Lagan Valley 1, ,200.. Lanark and Hamilton East 1, Lancaster and Fleetwood 1, Leeds Central 3, , Leeds East 1, , Leeds North East 1, Leeds North West Leeds West 1, , Leicester East Leicester South 1, Leicester West 1, Leigh 1, Lewes Lewisham East 1, , Lewisham West and Penge 1, , Lewisham, Deptford 2, , Leyton and Wanstead 1, , Lichfield Lincoln 1, , Linlithgow and East Falkirk 1, Liverpool, Riverside 2, ,184 1,302 Liverpool, Walton 2, ,639 Liverpool, Wavertree 2, , Liverpool, West Derby 2, ,196 Livingston 1, Llanelli 1, Loughborough Louth and Horncastle Ludlow Luton North Luton South 1, , Macclesfield Maidenhead Maidstone and The Weald

24 Makerfield 1, Maldon Manchester Central 2, ,586 1,162 Manchester, Gorton 2, , Manchester, Withington 1, Mansfield 1, Meon Valley Meriden 1, , Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 1, , Mid Bedfordshire Mid Derbyshire Mid Dorset and North Poole Mid Norfolk Mid Sussex Mid Ulster 1, ,046.. Mid Worcestershire Middlesbrough 3, , Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 1, , Midlothian Milton Keynes North 1, Milton Keynes South 1, Mitcham and Morden 1, Mole Valley Monmouth Montgomeryshire Moray Morecambe and Lunesdale 1, ,138 Morley and Outwood Motherwell and Wishaw 1, , Na h-eileanan An Iar Neath 1, New Forest East New Forest West Newark Newbury

25 Newcastle upon Tyne Central 2, , Newcastle upon Tyne East 1, , Newcastle upon Tyne North 1, Newcastle-under-Lyme Newport East 1, Newport West 1, , Newry & Armagh 1, ,594.. Newton Abbot Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford 1, North Antrim 1, ,719.. North Ayrshire and Arran 2, , North Cornwall North Devon North Dorset North Down 1, ,210.. North Durham 1, North East Bedfordshire North East Cambridgeshire North East Derbyshire North East Fife North East Hampshire North East Hertfordshire North East Somerset North Herefordshire North Norfolk North Shropshire North Somerset North Swindon North Thanet 1, , North Tyneside 1, , North Warwickshire North West Cambridgeshire North West Durham 1, North West Hampshire North West Leicestershire

26 North West Norfolk North Wiltshire Northampton North 1, Northampton South 1, Norwich North Norwich South 1, Nottingham East 2, , Nottingham North 2, , Nottingham South 1, , Nuneaton 1, Ochil and South Perthshire 1, Ogmore 1, Old Bexley and Sidcup Oldham East and Saddleworth 1, Oldham West and Royton 1, Orkney and Shetland Orpington Oxford East Oxford West and Abingdon Paisley and Renfrewshire North 1, Paisley and Renfrewshire South 1, , Pendle 1, Penistone and Stocksbridge Penrith and The Border Perth and North Perthshire Peterborough 1, Plymouth, Moor View 1, Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport 2, , Pontypridd Poole Poplar and Limehouse 2, , Portsmouth North Portsmouth South 1, Preseli Pembrokeshire Preston 1,

27 Pudsey Putney Rayleigh and Wickford Reading East Reading West Redcar 2, , Redditch Reigate Rhondda 1, Ribble Valley Richmond (Yorks) Richmond Park Rochdale 2, , Rochester and Strood 1, Rochford and Southend East 1, , Romford 1, Romsey and Southampton North Ross, Skye and Lochaber Rossendale and Darwen 1, Rother Valley 1, Rotherham 1, , Rugby Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Runnymede and Weybridge Rushcliffe Rutherglen and Hamilton West 1, , Rutland and Melton Saffron Walden Salford and Eccles 1, , Salisbury Scarborough and Whitby 1, Scunthorpe 1, , Sedgefield 1, Sefton Central Selby and Ainsty

28 Sevenoaks Sheffield Central 1, , Sheffield South East 1, , Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough 2, , Sheffield, Hallam Sheffield, Heeley 1, , Sherwood Shipley Shrewsbury and Atcham Sittingbourne and Sheppey 1, , Skipton and Ripon Sleaford and North Hykeham Slough 1, Solihull Somerton and Frome South Antrim 1, ,148.. South Basildon and East Thurrock 1, South Cambridgeshire South Derbyshire South Dorset South Down 1, ,468.. South East Cambridgeshire South East Cornwall South Holland and The Deepings South Leicestershire South Norfolk South Northamptonshire South Ribble South Shields 2, , South Staffordshire South Suffolk South Swindon South Thanet 1, , South West Bedfordshire South West Devon

29 South West Hertfordshire South West Norfolk South West Surrey South West Wiltshire Southampton, Itchen 1, Southampton, Test 1, Southend West Southport Spelthorne St Albans St Austell and Newquay 1, St Helens North 1, St Helens South and Whiston 1, ,058 St Ives Stafford Staffordshire Moorlands Stalybridge and Hyde 1, Stevenage Stirling Stockport 1, Stockton North 2, , Stockton South 1, , Stoke-on-Trent Central 1, , Stoke-on-Trent North 1, Stoke-on-Trent South Stone Stourbridge 1, Strangford 1, ,410.. Stratford-on-Avon Streatham 1, , Stretford and Urmston 1, Stroud Suffolk Coastal Sunderland Central 2, , Surrey Heath