THE MIDWEST SOLAR MARKET HOT OR NOT? John Farrell. May 16, Director of Democratic Energy

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1 THE MIDWEST SOLAR MARKET HOT OR NOT? May 16, 2014 John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy

2 Big picture: For years, solar was about remote power installations and the environment Credit: Flickr user blmiers2

3 Now solar is about the economics

4 LOCAL SOLAR POTENTIAL 52% 21% 23% 51% 23% 23% 49% 38% 19% 14% 41% 26% 19% 25% 21% 25% 35% 28% 24% 20% 21% 19% 23% 22% 17% 22% 23% 18% 20% 23% 20% 19% 11% 24% 31% 42% 24% 12% 28% 18% 15% 26% 21% 18% 24% 24% 21% 23% 19% POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR 49% Residential and Commercial roofs 50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%

5 SAVING WITH SOLAR

6 RISING RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES (Residential, per kilowatt-hour) IA IL IN KS MI MN MO ND NE OH SD WI Average

7 RISING RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 15 (Residential, per kilowatt-hour) % per year 9 6 3% per year 3 Average of Midwest states

8 ICITY PRICES 4.7% per year t states

9 ICITY PRICES 4.7% per year t states

10 50 40 SOLAR PARITY IS COMING ( per kilowatt-hour) Average Midwest residential retail electricity price Levelized cost of solar electricity (Minneapolis) Cost of solar with ITC 30 Unsubsidized Solar Parity % per year Subsidized Solar Parity

11 LOCAL SOLAR POTENTIAL 52% 21% 23% 51% 23% 23% 49% 38% 19% 14% 41% 26% 19% 25% 21% 25% 35% 28% 24% 20% 21% 19% 23% 22% 17% 22% 23% 18% 20% 23% 20% 19% 11% 24% 31% 42% 24% 12% 28% 18% 15% 26% 21% 18% 24% 24% 21% 23% 19% POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR 49% Residential and Commercial roofs 50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%

12 SOLAR PARITY AT PARITY (2022) , GIGAWATTS (Megawatts) ,000 11, , , , , , ,000 32, , Residential and Commercial roofs See ILSR s Rooftop Revolution reports for data 30, PERCENT OF SALES 1-5% 5-10% 10% or more

13 VALUE

14 $ LOCAL POWER VALUE (per kilowatt-hour) $0.11 $0.08 Local capacity value Avoided transmission access Environmental Avoided transmission losses Brown energy replacement $0.06 $0.03 Solar is valuable! $0.00

15 LOCAL POWER VALUE (economy)

16 LOCAL POWER VALUE (political) Not local very negative negative neutral positive very positive

17 LOCAL POWER VALUE (political) Not local -44% +77% net approval Local Ownership +33% very negative negative neutral positive very positive Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy

18 Germany s Energy Revolution Still People Powered Other 54% Individuals & Farmers 46% 29,000 MW 27% renewable

19 GREAT OPPORTUNITY

20 INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY (MW) GIGAWATTS Sources: SEIA & ACORE

21 18 21 N. DAKOTA Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 100 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit Source: DSIRE

22 18 21 S. DAKOTA Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 10 5 State tax/cash incentives 0 Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit Source: DSIRE

23 18 21 NEBRASKA Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 25 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit Source: DSIRE

24 18 21 KANSAS Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 25/200 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit Source: DSIRE

25 18 21 IOWA Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 500 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax benefit Source: DSIRE

26 18 21 WISCONSIN Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 20/100 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

27 18 21 MICHIGAN Solar standard (RPS)* *triple credit under RPS 39 Community solar Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price Net metering 150 KW State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

28 18 21 INDIANA Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 1000 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

29 18 21 OHIO Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering UNL. KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

30 18 21 ILLINOIS Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 40 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

31 18 21 MISSOURI Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 100 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price? State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

32 18 21 MINNESOTA Solar standard (RPS) 39 Community solar Net metering 1000 KW Residential retail electricity price Solar price with ITC Solar price State tax/cash incentives Utility cash incentives Property/sales tax Source: DSIRE

33 LOCAL POLICY

34 LOCAL PERMITTING 40% 39% 30% 20% 10% 13% As the cost of solar falls... 15% 5% 6%...the savings from 22% 19% 8% Approx. year for residential installation* % $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 Installed Cost per Watt Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013) *From ILSR s Rooftop Revolution reports: 26% streamlined permitting rise 12%

35 LOCAL PERMITTING Leading Cities Vote Solar: Project Permit

36 LOCAL ENERGY FINANCING

37 COMMUNITY CHOICE Active CCAs No active CCAs

38 FRANCHISE Cities Utilities LEVERAGE

39 LOCAL POWER 2x Coal BOULDER SANTA FE

40 THANK YOU! 21%