Pole side impact Cost / Benefit study, French data
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1 Pole side impact Cost / Benefit study, French data Cyril Chauvel 21/11/2012
2 Objectives Evaluate the cost / benefit of vehicle technical evolution Regarding side impact Injury changes in barrier side impact Injury changes in pole side impact
3 Data base used BAAC data base (ONISR) French National data 2009 Police forces data collection M1 and N1 passenger vehicles Fatalities and serious injuries distribution M1 vehicles Fatalities: pole side impacts Fatalities: barrier side impacts Fatalities: all side impacts Serious injuries: pole side impacts Serious injuries: barrier side impacts Serious injuries: all side impacts ONISR year N1 vehicles Fatalities: pole side impacts Fatalities: barrier side impacts Fatalities: all side impacts Serious injuries: pole side impacts Serious injuries: barrier side impacts Serious injuries: all side impacts ONISR année
4 French Fleet M1 French fleet (year 2009) Millions N1 French fleet (year 2009) 5.75 Millions Ratio (fatalities + severe injuries) vs fleet Gravity (Fatalities + severe injuries) per million vehicle Pole side impacts Barrier side impacts All side impacts M N
5 French fleet renewal Takes about 14 years in France to reniew completely M1 and N1 car fleet Used to calculate cost / benefit evolution (progressive increase of new M1 and N1 designed cars into the fleet)
6 French social cost Positive effect on Fatalities and Serious injuries reduction For year 2009 in France 1.2 M per Fatality M per Serious injured people Negative effect of weight increase on fuel consumption and CO2 emissions EEVC WG13 and WG21 Subgroup, Report: Analysis to estimate likely benefits and costs for the EU of modifying Regulation 95 Not taken into account for the cost/benefit calculation
7 Technical evolutions Technical requirement No pole side impact requirement ECE 95 and EuroNCAP 13 points (2008 protocol) FMVSS 214 (PSI 75, 32kph)
8 Technical cost and additional weigth for M1 and N1 vehicles Upgrade of vehicle to meet proposed regulatory option requirements -> Pole test Baseline (Euro NCAP 13 points) Additional cost Source EEVC studies: 290 to 348 / vehicle Additional weigth : 13 to 20kg Upgrade of vehicle to pole side impact 75 / 32 kph Additional cost Source NHTSA 2004 studies: 84 to 223 / vehicle Source France: 50 to 60 / vehicle Additional weigth : 7 to 15kg Total cost used for calculation: 340 to 408 / vehicle Total weigth: 20 to 35kg
9 Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries Benefit evaluation of New side impact safety systems on cars: Curtain Airbags Structural changes: car stiffness, side body and doors Gain with new side impact safety systems and car stiffness -> 34% potentiel efficiency (source: LAB studies)
10 Risk Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries Benefit evaluation regarding pole side impact implied by the new requirements on pole side impact (32kph 75 ) of Modified restraint system: optimised airbags, Stuctural changes: increased reinforcement, Regarding the figure moving from 29kph to 32kph pole side impact will bring a maximum of 20% potential efficiency on fatalities and serious injuries MAIS3+ and MAIS3+ + 3kph risk curves regarding side impact vehicle with narrow fixed obstacles (vehicle design 1980 and more) (n=124 occupants) 20% efficiency EES in kph MAIS3+ MAIS3+ + 3kph
11 M1 Results
12 M1 Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries Total Severe injuries Fatalities Gain (M ) Technical cost per vehicle (euros) French fleet Technical cost for all the French fleet (MEuros) Minimal cost Maximum cost Million vehicles Minimal cost Maximum cost ,489 12,587 After 14 years French fleet renewal Severe injury benefits: involved people Fatality benefits: involved people Social benefit: M Technical cost: between M and M
13 M1 Cost/Benefit calculation Cost / benefit ratio Balanced cost / benefit ratio Mini Maxi En Euros After 14 years French fleet renewal Cost / benefit ratio: between 4.9 and 5.9 (>1 not good) Technical cost balance: 69 Euros per vehicle
14 N1 Results
15 N1 Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries Total Severe injuries Fatalities Gain (M ) Technical cost per vehicle (euros) French fleet Technical cost for all the French fleet (MEuros) Minimal cost Maximum cost Million vehicles Minimal cost Maximum cost ,955 2,346 After 14 years French fleet renewal Severe injury benefits: 241 involved people Fatality benefits: 73 involved people Societal benefit: 119 M Technical cost: between M and M
16 N1 Cost/Benefit calculation Cost / benefit ratio Balanced cost / benefit ratio Mini Maxi En Euros After 14 years French fleet renewal Cost / benefit ratio: between 16.4 and 19.6 (>1 not good) Technical cost balance: 21 Euros per vehicle
17 Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries with vehicle ESC equiped Benefit evaluation of ESC (regulation) Pole side impact avoidance -> 34% potentiel efficiency (source: EEVC) Benefit evaluation regarding pole side impact implied by the new requirements on pole side impact (32kph 75 ) -> 20% potential efficiency
18 M1 (with ESC) Results
19 M1 Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries Total Severe injuries Fatalities Gain (M ) Technical cost per vehicle (euros) French fleet Technical cost for all the French fleet (MEuros) Minimal cost Maximum cost Million vehicles Minimal cost Maximum cost ,489 12,587 After 14 years French fleet renewal Severe injury benefits: involved people Fatality benefits: involved people Social benefit: M Technical cost: between M and M
20 M1 Cost/Benefit calculation Cost / benefit ratio Balanced cost / benefit ratio Mini Maxi En Euros After 14 years French fleet renewal Cost / benefit ratio: between 5.2 and 6.2 (>1 not good) Technical cost balance: 66 Euros per vehicle
21 N1 (with ESC) Results
22 N1 Potential reduction of Fatalities and Serious injuries Total Severe injuries Fatalities Gain (M ) Technical cost per vehicle (euros) French fleet Technical cost for all the French fleet (MEuros) Minimal cost Maximum cost Million vehicles Minimal cost Maximum cost ,955 2,346 After 14 years French fleet renewal Severe injury benefits: 238 involved people Fatality benefits: 68 involved people Social benefit: 113 M Technical cost: between M and M
23 N1 Cost/Benefit calculation Cost / benefit ratio Balanced cost / benefit ratio Mini Maxi En Euros After 14 years French fleet renewal Cost / benefit ratio: between 17.3 and 20.8 (>1 not good) Technical cost balance: 20 Euros per vehicle
24 Synthesis Not ESC equiped Cost / benefit ratio Balanced cost / benefit ratio Mini Maxi En Euros M1 vehicles N1 vehicles ESC equiped Cost / benefit ratio Balanced cost / benefit ratio Mini Maxi En Euros M1 vehicles - ESC equiped N1 vehicles - ESC equiped
25 Conclusion Results give a technical extra cost per vehicle 4 to 6 time higher than fatalities and serious injuries benefits for M1 and 16 to 20 time higher for N1. Human benefit versus technical cost balance is about 66 Euros per M1 vehicle and 20 Euros per N1 vehicle. Not economically interesting to push such a test as regulation. Nevertheless, the decrease of fatalities and serious injuries is not unimportant.
26 Questions? Thank you for your attention
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