Inception Note on Distribution Franchisee Options at Mazar-e-sherif and Khayr Khana sites

Transcription

1 Inception Note on Distribution Franchisee Options at Mazar-e-sherif and Khayr Khana sites Umesh Agrawal Head CRISIL 24 April, 2007

2 In this note Terms of Reference Proposed Approach and Methodology Area Profile Technical Analysis System specifications Load duration curve Commercial Analysis Consumer mix Consumption mix Commercial details Energy Flow Way Forward 2.

3 3. Terms of Reference

4 Terms of Reference Reviewing and broadly analyzing the data collected from the Mazar-esherif and Khayr Khana sites Providing three conceptual operating contract options for providing electricity services in Mazar-e-sherif and in Khayr Khana (comprising descriptions of the essential elements of the contract that specify, among other things, principles involved, incentive mechanisms employed and means of providing fuel, setting tariffs and other necessary contract elements ) Conducting a 6 to 8 hour working session at CRISIL s headquarters with Afghan power and energy officials Submitting a final report covering the design principles and three conceptual operating contract operations outlined above 4.

5 5. Proposed Approach and Methodology

6 Approach and Methodology Step 1: Developing an understanding of the proposed distribution areas by review of information provided and identifying data gaps Step 2: Completing the review after receipt of the data gaps Step 3: Developing a concept note on options for franchising and relevant issues Step 4: Discussion on the concept note with comments received Step 5: Final report on the options for appointing distribution franchisees Step 6: Conducting a 6 to 8 hour working session with Afghan power and energy officials 6.

7 7. Area Profile

8 Mazar-e-Sharif Coverage area encompasses 11 municipal districts in Mazar-e-sharif Dehdadi Balkh District MeS capital city of Balkh province Has a population of ~300,600* Region sources all its power from Uzbekistan at cheap prices $0.029/ kwh cost of supply Has the second cheapest tariffs applicable in Afghanistan Afs. 3/ kwh for Residential Afs. 8/ kwh for others Faces severe shortage of power Only 44% of demand met in 2005 Shortage currently countered by regular load-shedding Balkh District Dehdadi Mazar-e-Sharif *: Official estimates. 8.

9 Khair Khana Coverage area encompasses Area connected to Junction 10 of Kabul distribution system Densely populated suburb of Kabul city Has a population of ~1,000,000* Khair Khana Sources expensive power through Hydro and Thermal generation $0.153/ kwh average cost of power Tariffs applicable Afs. 1.5 to 6/ kwh for Residential Afs. 6 to 10/ kwh for others *: Estimates as of

10 10. Technical Analysis

11 System Specifications MeS Load - >50 MW Sub Stations EHV Sub Stations (110 kv & above) 1 35/6 kv Sub Stations 3 6/0.4 kv DTRs 440 Feeders 35 kv feeders [Data Insufficient] 6 kv feeders [Data Insufficient] Distribution Transformers DTRs 554 Line Length 35 kv line length kms 6 kv line length kms LT line length kms Load - >41 MW Sub Stations EHV Sub Stations (110 kv & above) [Data Insufficient] 35/6 kv Sub Stations [Data Insufficient] 6/0.4 kv DTRs [Data Insufficient] Feeders 35 kv feeders [Data Insufficient] 6 kv feeders [Data Insufficient] Distribution Transformers DTRs - [Data Insufficient] Line Length Khair Khana 35 kv line length [Data Insufficient] 6 kv line length [Data Insufficient] LT line length [Data Insufficient] 11.

12 Load Duration Curve MeS Load (MW) :00 03:00 05:00 07:00 09:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00 Time of Day 8th Aug 06 7th Oct 06 26th Dec 06 Khair Khana Data Insufficient 12.

13 13. Commercial Analysis

14 Consumer Mix Mazar-e-Sharif Total Consumers 63,173 Khair Khana Total Consumers 23, % 0.43% 0.53% 0.16% 4.51% 0.47% 0.22% 95.30% 94.79% Residential Govt. Commercial Holly Places UN & NGOs Residential Govt. Commercial Holly Places 14.

15 Consumption Mix Mazar-e-Sharif Total Consumption Khair Khana Total Consumption Data Insufficient Data Insufficient 15.

16 Other Commercial Details Mazar-e-Sharif Khair Khana Proportion of registered consumers of total consumers 100% 100% Proportion of metered consumers of total consumers Data Insufficient Data Insufficient Proportion of consumers billed of total consumers 100% 100% Collection efficiency 75% Data Insufficient No. of disconnected consumers (in year 2005) Amount of arrears from disconnected consumers Afs 4.16 Mn Afs Mn Billing cycle 2 Months 2 Months Existence of Private Distributors No Yes Mazar-e-Sharif Total Employees Khair Khana Total Employees Tech Emp Admin Tech Lab Serv Emp Tech Emp Admin Tech Lab Serv Emp

17 17. Energy Flow

18 Energy Flow MeS Year 2005 Khair Khana Year 2005 Input Energy 150,847 MwH Losses 45,254 MWH (30.0%) Input Energy 53,781MwH Losses 13,966 MWH (26.0%) HV Sales? MWH Total Sales 105,593 MWH LV Sales? MWH HV Sales? MWH Total Sales 39,815 MWH LV Sales? MWH HV Billing Afs.? Million Total Billing Afs.?Million LV Billing Afs.?Million HV Billing Afs.? Million Total Billing Afs.?Million LV Billing Afs.?Million HV Realization Afs.? Million Total Realization Afs.? Million LV Realization Afs.? Million HV Realization Afs.? Million Total Realization Afs.? Million LV Realization Afs.? Million HV Collection Efficiency?% Total Collection Efficiency 75% LVCollection Efficiency?% HVCollection Efficiency?% Total Collection Efficiency? % LV Collection Efficiency?% AT & C Losses? % AT & C Losses? % ABR Afs./kWh? ABR Afs./kWh? RPU Afs./ kwh? RPU Afs./kWh? 18.

19 19. Way Forward

20 Way Forward Review after plugging data gaps Conduct in-depth technical and commercial data analysis Technical and commercial issues in the distribution area Overview of regulatory issues: Retail tariff structure (including connection charges), tariff setting process, performance obligations including USO Profiling areas of inefficiency with reasons Developing performance improvement trajectory Developing objectives for the distribution franchisee Construct options for franchisee structure that Suits the requirements of both the areas Is beneficial for the consumers, utility as well as the Franchisee Frame the key principles of franchisee agreement for the options developed 20.

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