Programme. Symposium: The Prospects of E-Mobility in Karachi

Transcription

1

2 Programme Symposium: The Prospects of E-Mobility in Karachi Arrival of guests : hrs Guests to be seated : hrs Recitation from the Holy Quran : hrs Welcome Address by the President PAE : hrs PRESENTATIONS 1. The Public & Private Transport System in Karachi by Mr. Ijaz Hussain Khilji : hrs Discussion by the Participants : hrs 2. The Cost of Traffic Congestion for Karachi by Prof. Dr. Mir Shabbar Ali : hrs Discussion by the Participants : hrs 3. International Scenario of Electric Road Vehicles by Dr. Nasim A. Khan : hrs Discussion by the Participants : hrs 4. The Ultimate Solution by Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan : hrs Discussion by the Participants : hrs Concluding Observations : hrs Lunch : hrs

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 PROSPECTS A REPORT ON PAE SYMPOSIUM HELD ON DECEMBER20, 2014 OF E-MOBILITY IN KARACHI ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING EDITOR. PROF DR NASIM A. KHAN

10 A REPORT ON PAKISTAN ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING SYMPOSIUM PROSPECTS OF E-MOBILITY IN KARACHI CITY, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN Including Address of President of Pakistan Academy of Engineering Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan Papers presented by The Public & Private Transport System in Karachi by Ijaz Hussain Khilji The Cost of Traffic Congestion for Karachi by Prof Dr Mir Shabbar Ali International Status of E- Mobility by Prof Brig. Dr. Nasim A. Khan The Ultimate Solution by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan and Recommendations of the Symposium held on December 20, 2014 The President; Pakistan Academy of Engineering is Ex Vice Chancellor of NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi The Author-1 is an Ex- Managing Director, Karachi Urban Transport Corporation. Author-2 is Chairman of Department of Urban & transportation Engineering, NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi Author-3 is Senior Executive Director at Osmani & Company (Pvt) Ltd, Ex Vice Chancellor of Hamdard University, Karachi and Ex Vice Chancellor of Nazeer Hussain University, Karachi Author-4 is The President Pakistan Academy of Engineering 1

11 Address of the President, Dr. Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan Honourable guests and my dear fellow engineers. Assalamo Alaikum 1. We are grateful that you very kindly agreed to grace this occasion. It is the first Symposium to address one of the Ten Grand Challenges that we have identified to be addressed by the engineering community. You may visit the subjects of our future symposia listed on our website ( The Pakistan Academy of Engineering is a LEARNED SOCIETY and acts as a THINKING LABORATORY. 2. Ladies and gentlemen, I on behalf of the Pakistan Academy of Engineering heartily welcome you on this occasion and express my profound gratitude for your participation. Karachi with a population of almost 20 million is struggling to have a sustainable public and private transport system. This is the most pressing problem of the citizens, who are under extreme distress. Is there a solution, which the latest technologies can deliver? Let us examine the proposition. Mobility is one of human being s fundamental desires, as well as necessity. It is likely to expand further in the future with the progress of the world economy. Transport consumes about one fourth of the total world energy. It has been recognized internationally that the future of humanity lies in de-carbonizing the transport system radically. According to the statistics released by the Government of Pakistan, the total Primary Energy Supplies amounted to million tons of oil equivalent (TOE) in the year as shown in Figure-1 & Figure-2. The Transport Sector is supposed to have consumed million TOE i.e % of the total Primary Energy Supplies as shown in Figure-3. Petroleum products accounted for million TOE and Gas million TOE. Road transport alone shared million TOE i.e % of the total Primary Energy Supplies. 2

12 Figure-1: Energy Flow Chart [Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013] Figure-2: Primary Energy Supplies by Source [Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013] 3

13 Figure-3: Energy Consumption by Sector [Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013] 3. Import of Crude and Petroleum Products accounted for more than 83% of the total. Practically the entire energy for the public and private transport system in Pakistan is imported, which puts the country in an extremely vulnerable situation. If any disruption in the imported supply of crude &petroleum products occurs, our entire transport system will be demobilized. We have no strategic energy storage for meeting the exigencies. 4. The increasing deficit in the National Gas Supply is evident as shown in Figure-4, implying that with the depletion of this indigenous source, reliance has to be placed either on imported piped gas or liquid natural gas (LNG). The answer clearly lies in developing an alternative source of energy at the earliest. Figure-4: Demand supply gap in Natural gas sector 4

14 5. Today s motor vehicles are the main source of air pollution. They account for 50% of Nitrogen oxides (NO), 70% of carbon di oxides (CO and CO2) and 50% of the volatile organic compounds (VOC). Therefore, transforming the Hydrocarbon Economy to Hydrogen Economy has to be earnestly initiated utilizing the renewable energy sources, particularly the abundantly available solar energy in Pakistan as shown in Figure-5. Figure-5 Renewable energy transformation outlook 6. In the subsequent presentations, we shall be able to discuss the various dimensions of this vital issue further. 7. I fervently hope that you will enjoy the presentations and offer your considered opinions during the amply provided time for discussion. THANK YOU. 5

15 THE PUBLIC & PRIVATE TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN KARACHI Ijaz Hussain Khilji 1 1. INTRODUCTION Travelling the distance has always been the necessity as well as ambition of mankind. Since the greatest invention the wheel human mobility has transformed from animal driven carts to steam and oil engines moving onwards to jets and virtual movement in cyber space. The mobility however has been singularly dependent on development of pathways in the shape of dirt roads, fixed and flexible pavements, highways and eventually the air ways. The desire of mankind to create most efficient tools and means of travel has overtime given rise to most complex road and air networks facilitating commute and communication. The movement of knowledge, skills and physical transportation of teeming millions along with cascading incremental cargos has put enormous pressure on the ever crumbling communication infrastructure. The demands of a globalized world for seamless transportation of men and cargo have thrown challenges of unparallel dimensions to the planners, social scientists and engineers around the world. The big cities and metropolitans bursting at seams with population pressure are struggling hard to keep pace with the rapidly increasing requirements of road infrastructure. The ghost of ill planned and uncontrolled urbanization is visibly manifested in traffic jams, higher numbers of road accidents and virtual brocade of much desired efficient mobility. In particular, the developing economies and emerging markets like Pakistan are the worst hit. The gap between resources and requirements need imaginative efforts and planning. The city of Karachi from a population of 357,000 at the time of independence in the year 1947 has grown exponentially and at present, is estimated to be around 20 million and is expected to be 35 million by the year The urbanization of the city coupled with various industrial centers i.e. SITE, KITE, LITE, PQA and other small industrial zones spread over in the city of Karachi in a formal and informal manner, requires considerable work force, obviously causing manifold increase in the commuters and vehicles on the road. The socio economics status of Karachi is shown in slide # 2, the existing population and projected growth of population is shown in slide # 3, whereas the Urban Sprawl from 2005 to 2015 is shown in slide # 4, the growth of population in Karachi as estimated by JICA in their study Karachi Transport Improvement Plan (KTIP # 2012) is shown in slide # 5, to cater for growth in population, the planned Urban development projects are shown in slide # 6. However, this has not been matched with an appropriate master plan to provide an efficient transport system, leading to traffic congestion, more travel time, accidents, and environmental & social issues. Efforts have been made to cope with the increased traffic on road by providing detours, one-ways, flyover, expressways, road-widening, traffic education, new rules and heavy fines racing against ever-growing operational demands the city thirsts for long-term solutions. Unable to fully handle the gush of heterogeneously jostling traffic, the arteries start getting blocked at vital points and the effect can be felt in every aspect of the city s industrial, professional and personal life. It has snowballing negative effect on work, productivity, family bonds, health, happiness, environment and quality of living is hard to control. As cities grow physically and humanly, the load of vehicular trips on the road system also goes up and when the traffic level of any travel corridor in one direction exceeds 10,000 persons per hour it calls for a pragmatic policy shift towards encouraging the introduction of a Mass Transit System. The overview of transport sector i.e. Transportation of public vehicles are reflected in slide # 7, 8, 9& 10 whereas the Modal distribution of vehicle is shown in slide # 11. The vehicle ownership by town is shown in slide # 1 Mr Ijaz Hussain Khliji was Ex- Managing Director, Karachi Urban Transport Corporation 6

16 12, whereas the Nos. of vehicles registered and growth rate of same is shown in slide # 13.It can be seen that present percentage of ownership of public vehicles will increase to 16%,if Mass Transit Program is not implemented. Consequently the travel time will also increase and the pollution will also increase, as referred in slide # 14& 15. The aforesaid increase in population and vehicles are posing great threat and challenges which are reflected in slide # 16, 17 & 18.Therefore the immediate provision for a Mass Transit System i.e. vehicles with large carrying capacity, moving at higher speed, short intervals, and affordable fare level are shown pictorially in slide # HISTORY OF MASS TRANSIT The city of Karachi had a Mass transit System in the shape of Tramways, almost covering the old city of Karachi, in combination with an efficient bus operation. The Tramways were abandoned in the year 1975 due to increase in the vehicular traffic, leading to denial of accessibility of Right-of- Way to trams. The first master plan of the city of Karachi was prepared in the year 1952 by Swedish consultants MRVP who had recommended the provision of a mass transit in the shape of Karachi Circular Railway. In late 1950 s the planning and construction of KCR was undertaken by the railway management and KCR was commissioned in November 1964 and extended in 1970, having the route length of 43.1kmswith 14 stations and was highly patronized which is evident from the fact that in the year 1984, 104 trains were operating on the system. But due to lack of continued investment in KCR, the operating efficiency was marginalized resulting in long running time, frequent break downs, cancellation of trains leading to loss of ridership, thereby the number of Trains was gradually reduced and eventually KCR was closed for traffic in January The Karachi Mass Transit Study (KMTS) was commissioned under the World Bank funding in The study recommended an 87 km network of elevated and at grade transit ways to be initially used a bus ways and later to be converted to a light rail system around year The project could not be implemented due to financial constraints. 3. WHAT IS A METRO? Mass Transit System is normally synonymous with the word Metro. A Metro can perhaps be best defined as a high-frequency, urban, Mass Rapid Transit System that operates totally independent from other modes of traffic. It can be underground, at-grade, elevated or a combination of any of the above. According to German Metro enthusiast Robert Schwandl, Steel Wheels, Rubber Tires, Double-rail, Monorail, Overhead Wire Electrification, Third Rail Power Supply, Narrow Gauge, Standard Gauge, Broad Gauge, Automatically-driven, Driver-driven a Metro can be based on a combination of any of the above systems. It doesn t necessarily use heavy rail technology and that s why some famous urban light rail systems that meet a metro s generally accepted operating parameters are sometimes included in metro listings. SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF METRO: High acceleration Deceleration Close inter station distances Closed door High safety levels Pre boarding ticketing Intermodal connectivity Air conditioned Convenient access 4. STATUS OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE TRANSPORT IN KARACHI In developed countries, the planning for a Mass Transit System generally starts when the city population crosses the one million mark. The system is in position by the time the city population 7

17 is two to three million and when the population exceeds four million or so, planned extensions to the Mass Rapid Transit Systems are vigorously initiated. Metro lines are not just for affluent countries. They are a necessity for any large city, to provide mobility to its people. Cities in Europe have an average 38-kms of metro rail per million populations. The corresponding figure in Asia and North America is 10 kms and 23 kms respectively, whereas world average is 19 kms. The demand analysis shows that road development in the master plan is not enough to reduce the projected traffic congestion in Karachi. In order to improve the traffic situation in the future, it is necessary to construct mass transit system. Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) will contribute to provide better transport in the center of the city, but it is proposed that the line should be extended to east because the future demand in Bin Qasim is expected to be very high. The demand analysis shows that the traffic demand will be high not only in radial directions including Tower Super Highway, but also the corridor along Rashid Minhas Road. Railway systems are proposed for the two corridors. The growth of Karachi towards West and North East can be catered for by the provision of six BRT corridors as suggested in KTIP Plan prepared by JICA in TRAVEL TIME COST 5.1 Revived KCR Project Provision of Mass Transit System reduces the travel time of the mobility of the commuters and results in saving of man-hours. In the case of revival of KCR Project the difference of travel time between road transport and revived KCR has been calculated on the basis of the speed of both the modes and the projected ridership of KCR. The annual saving will be PKR Billion. As shown in slide # Provision of BRT The BRT project will bring about economic benefit such as travel time reduction for BRT passengers, vehicle operating cost reduction, and vehicle emission reduction. On the other hand, the project will cause negative impact on road traffic. Since existing bus passengers will use the BRT, and the system will reach its capacity by them, shift from car users to BRT system will not be large enough to compensate the reduction in the number of lanes. However, the project is economically feasible. The average travel time of minibuses is approximately 17km/h in Karachi. The travel speed of BRT is expected to be 33km/h on average. The benefits of time saving due to increase in speed are marginalized due to the following reasons: i. Lanes of carriage way for vehicular traffic will be reduced by BRT where the width of median is not wide enough for BRT lines, which will reduce the capacity of road and increase the travel time. ii. The average speed in peak hours along the BRT corridors is assumed as 33 km/h which will be reduced to 29.7 km/h [90%] iii. Delay at the Intersection of BRT. The BRT Project will change the signal free corridor to a signalized road for BRT operations, which will cause a delay at signalized intersection. Delay at intersection depends on the capacity and traffic volume. However, the average delay per vehicle at an intersection has been assumed as 40 seconds in the KTIP Study by JICA. 6. AIR & NOISE POLLUTION DUE TO INCREASE VEHICULAR EMISSIONS Karachi city s air quality is one of the poorest in the world, with levels exceeding WHO guidelines. A major contributor to this pollution and generation of green-house gases (GHG) is the transportation sector, especially from an aging fleet of vehicles in poor mechanical condition and low levels of fuel efficiency. The high levels of sulphur in an automotive diesel (0.5% -1%) is seen as a major contributor to sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM 10 ) in ambient air. i. According to the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (PEPA), a major share of the emission load from motor vehicles in urban areas can be attributed to a relatively small 8

18 number of smoky diesel and 2-stroke (rickshaws) vehicles. Traffic congestion affects average speed of vehicles and consequently fuel consumption and greenhouse gases. ii. The environmental damage costs associated with urban air pollution are equivalent to 1% of GDP, as stated in one of the World Bank reports. iii. Particularly, at health risk are those living within a quarter of a mile of high-volume roads (those carrying 10,000 20,000 vehicles per day) and those living near roads with a large amount of truck traffic. iv. Noise pollution from vehicles, especially in residential areas, is above recommended levels. iv. Major contributors to the noise pollution are frequent and indiscriminate use of vehicle horns, removal of silencers on rickshaws and other 2-stroke vehicles, high volumes of traffic especially heavy vehicles. 6.1 Environmental Considerations in KCR The Revival of KCR Project is environment friendly as it is based on electric traction. It will result in estimated exhaust reduction of 44,584 ton / year for minibus and 1,342 ton per /year for bus and value of annual reduction is estimated at US$ Billion per year as of ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 7.1 Low Capacity of Bus Service Most mega-cities, like Karachi in developing countries suffer from a large number of small buses (minibus) which cause serious congestion in the center of these cities. Usually, introduction of a mass transit system can be justified from the huge demand in public transport in these cities. Karachi is an exception. The number of bus fleets is decreasing while the traffic demand is increasing with rapid population growth, city expansion,and economic growth. Rapid increase in private cars cannot explain the reason because car is still expensive in Pakistan and there still remains huge population who cannot afford to buy a private car. The number of minibuses and coaches are restricted while introduction of standard size buses has failed. Bus service in Karachi is having severe strain, due to increase in vehicle operating cost. The operators are therefore not bringing in new buses nor maintaining the existing fleet in a proper condition. 7.2 Improper Bus Routes The majority of the bus services concentrate on radial directions except the major circular route such as Rashid Minhas Road. Bus routes are designed to provide the service between major origin and destination through high demand routes, and the preferable routes for bus operators are busy while the bus service along non-popular routes is poor. There is no hierarchy of bus network, or trunk and feeder system. From this, passengers need to transfer their buses to reach their destination. Since there is no fare integration, passengers need to pay the fare for every transfer. 7.3 Poor Road Network Road network in Karachi has been significantly improved in recent years by construction of flyovers and underpasses. From this, traffic capacity problem is small at present. However, there are some network problems relating to urban structure. For example, the access, to and from Korangi Industrial Area is inconvenient because there are few access routes over Malir River. 7.4 Traffic Congestion Traffic congestion is one of the serious problems especially in the center of the city. A lot of traffic signals are installed at intersections in the down-town area compared to the suburban area. However, at very busy intersections, traffic is controlled by traffic police in peak hours due to the inefficacy of the signals provided therein. 9

19 7.5 Demand-Supply Gap of Parking Space The capacity of public parking is very small compared to the demand in roadside parking. This needs to be improved by the provision of parking plazas and restricted parking on the streets. 7.6 Lack of Proper Traffic Enforcement In Karachi, passenger riding on bus roof top is very popular and observed everywhere although it is prohibited. Double parking and other illegal parking are overlooked without proper enforcement. Due to lack of enough transport services; the violations occur and it is very difficult to fully regulate violations of traffic rules, problems in transport sector are complex and related to each other. 8. OPTIONS The aim for an efficient and effective Mass Transit System is to provide vehicles with large carrying capacity, operating at high frequency for the mobility of maximum number of passengers in shortest possible time. This can be achieved by providing a combination of Bus Rapid Transit (Metro-Bus), Trams, Metro- Rapid Transit (MRT), Subways, Suburban Rail System etc. 8.1 Underground Metro Rail This is an ideal system for providing mobility from the CBD s Areas to the outskirts of the City and can be provided readily in combination with the circular connection depending upon the pattern of the commuters. In Karachi underground spine from Jehangir Park [Empress Market] to Tower via I.I. Chundrigar Road and M.A. Jinnah Road coupled with spine from Jahangir Park to NIPA would afford mobility from CBD areas to outskirts in shortest possible time. However, the cost of the Project imposes major constraints and is not doable in present condition. 8.2 Revival of Karachi Circular Railway (KCR) It has right of way available in almost all the districts of Karachi, and its revival does not involves any major traffic diversions and relocation of utility services. Karachi Circular Railway shall be revived as a modern commuter system with proper road connectivity and interface with the proposed BRT and MRT corridors. 8.3 MRT [Metro Rail Transit] at grade and elevated on high density corridors: i. Blue Line: Super Highway to Tower via Tin Hatti, M.A.Jinnah Road. ii. Brown Line: Korangi to North Karachi via Rashid Minhas Road 8.4 Bus Rapid Transit Bus Rapid Transit is a high quality bus system providing high speed, reliable, and comfortable services compared to traditional bus services. The concept of BRT is based on railway system, i.e. running along exclusive way, high speed, accurate travel time, and high capacity. KTIP study carried out by JICA, in as proposed the following BRT routes: i. Green Line: Surjani to Jamma Cloth Market via North Nazimabad, M.A. Jinnah Road ii. Red Line: Malir Cantt to Regal Chowk via University Road iii. Yellow Line: Dawood Chowrangi to Numaish/ Lucky Star via Korangi Road iv. Orange Line: Orangi Town to Matric Board Office v. Purple Line: Baldia to Sher Shah via Hub River Road vi. Aqua Line: Hawks Bay to Gulbai via Mauripur Road The option/solution in the shape of MRT/BRT and in short term/long term are presented in slide # 25, 26& 27,which will duly address the concerns of commuters as reflected in slide # 28. However the approved projects are listed at slide # 29 & 30 and the Policy and Strategy for the achievement of the same are given in 31, 32, 33 & 34. The proposed Mass Transit System are in line with the BRT system and LRT systems, operating in the world are reflected in the slide # 21, 22, & 23 and the underground Metro Rail Project are shown in slide # 24. There are a number of variations for BRT, and the boundary between BRT and conventional bus services is 10

20 not clear as far as the physical appearance is concerned. A typical BRT is the bus transit service on exclusive lanes in road spaces along the kerb line/centre of the road/dedicated lane. The maximum capacity of a standard BRT is approximately 13,000 passengers per hour per direction. BRT capacity depends on the service frequency and vehicle capacity. 8.5 BRT Type There are three levels of BRT system commonly used for the classification of BRT. Level 1 Bus Lane Level 2 Bus way Level 3 BRT [dedicated lane] Level-1 system usually provides a bus lane along kerb side. The bus lane is sometimes a priority lane which gives priority of using the lanes to buses but other vehicles can use the lanes when the bus traffic is not heavy, and other times an exclusive lane. In the urban street system where access demand along the road side exists and there are intersections with crossing streets, the bus lanes are easily interrupted by other vehicles. In Level-2 systems to avoid interweave of buses and other traffic, bus lanes are located in the center of roads. The Bus way system is usually a part of the network of general bus services. The improvement of bus services by introduction of this system would be insufficient in case that there are a number of operators (like Karachi) and it is allowed to use the bus way by many operators. The BRT systems in Seoul and Taipei are the examples of this system. Level-3 system is similar to railway system. In most cases, buses are only operated on the dedicated lanes controlled by a single operator along the lanes. Since the BRT buses need not run, in general traffic roads, advanced vehicle technologies can be used to increase the capacity and speed. In addition, pre-board fare collection reduces dwell time at bus stations. Metro bus (Istanbul) is the example of BRT of Level-3. Note that Level-3 does not necessarily mean high capacity system. For example, Trans-Jakarta (Jakarta) is categorized to Level-3 system but the capacity is very small. The service frequency depends on dwell time and clearance time. Additional stopping bays can increase the capacity. 9. APPROVED PROJECTS 9.1 Revival of Karachi Circular Railway 11

21 i. Approved by the Govt. of Pakistan at a cost of Billion US$ (Sep 09) ii. Revised Cost 2.6 Billion US$ approved by the Govt. of Pakistan (Aug 12) iii. Feasibility Study completed (May 2009) iv. Feasibility Study, updated (November 2012) v. EIA Study conducted and approved by EPA GOS vi. Geotechnical investigations, hydrological & Geological studies done vii. Exemption of GST, Import Duty, Federal and Provincial taxes (March 2013) viii. JICA considering to fund the project 9.2 BRT Yellow Line Project [20.4 KM, estimated cost Rs.5.5 Billion] i. Project has been conceived under PPP Mode by PPP Unit GOS & Karachi Mass Transit Cell (KMTC) ii. Bidding is under process iii. The date of submission of financial bids by potential sponsors was December 18, 2014, which has been extended to Jan / Feb BRT Green Line Project [21.1 KM, cost Rs.16 Billion for Infrastructure] i. The Prime Minister approved PKR 16.0 Billion for BRT Green Line ii. PC I approved for Rs.16.0 Billion by Govt. of Pakistan (04-Dec-2014). iii. Ministry of Communications, GoP to provide funds. iv. Rolling Stock, ITS and other systems under PPP mode by GOS 9.4 BRT/MRT Blue Line Project i. PPP Policy Board approved the project & instructed PPP Unit, GOS for international bidding ii. The Public Hearing for EIA was conducted on Oct. 28, 2014 by EPA. iii. The PPP Unit GOS is preparing RFP for International Bidding 10. RECOMMENDATIONS In the present day scenario; the solution to the mobility problems in the city of Karachi can be as follows:- Optimize traffic corridors Promote public transport Cleaner fuels Green vehicles Short Term Implementation of:- Revival of KCR Project BRT Projects o Blue Line o Orange Line o Green Line o Yellow Line Long Term Implementation of:- KCR Extension to Airport KCR Extension to Steel Mill, Port Qasim BRT Corridors o Red Line o Purple Line o Aqua Line Provision of underground Metro to be explored. 12

22 OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIOECONOMICS STATUS OF KARACHI 1 KARACHI AT A GLANCE BUILT-UP AREA [1,200 SQ. KM] JURISDICTION [3,600 SQ. KM] Administrative Structure: Total No. of Towns - 18 Total No. of Cantonments - 6 Total No. of UC s Demographics: Population (million) - 20 Households (millions) Annual Pop. Growth - 3.5% 2 13

23 POPULATION GROWTH BY TOWN Population in ,000, , ,000 Population in ,000, , ,000 Gadap Town New Karachi Town Kemari Town Bin Qasim Town Source: JICA KTIP URBAN SPRAWL AREA FROM 2005 TO 2015 DESCRIPTION 2005 (HA) 2015 (HA) 2015/ Built-up 33,088 35, Under Built-up 10,625 14, TOTAL 43,713 50, Built-up Area: About 50% or more of the site is filled with buildings or houses. Under Built-up Area: Less than 50% of the site is filled. Others (Non Built-up Area): Vacant land or very few buildings or houses New Built Up( ) New Under Built Up( ) Built Up Area (2005,2010) 4 14

24 GROWTH OF POPULATION IN KARACHI Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR) Year Alternative A Rate in 2020 continues Alternative B Trend of KSDP % % % % Alternative C Half rate of Alternative B % 3.0% 1.5% (million) 40 Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C 35 KSDP % 2.5% 1.25% NOTE: AAGR from 2005 to 2020 are estimated in KSDP Source: JICA KTIP LARGE-SCALE URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS DHA City & Bahria Town Karachi (25,000 ACRES) New Nazimabad Education City (2,100 ACRES) Korangi Creek Industrial Park (250 ACRES) Textile City (1,250 ACRES) Waterfront Development Bin Qasim Industrial Park (930 ACRES) Zulfiqarabad City Town (Thatta Coastal Area) 6 15

25 POPULATION V/S VEHICLE REGISTRATION TRENDS PERIOD PERCENTAGE INCREASE BY VEHICLE MODE Motor Cycles Cars/Jeeps Para Transit Buses / Minibuses Overall OVERALL Year Motor Cycles Car / Jeeps Rickshaws Taxis Buses / Minibuses Freight Vehicles Tractors , ,644 29,275 39,967 17,145 98,435 3,419 1,057, , ,436 30,487 39,967 17, ,136 3,421 1,083, , ,082 31,454 39,967 18, ,931 3,430 1,118, , ,531 33,003 39,967 18, ,931 3,430 1,177, , ,917 38,746 40,065 20, ,021 3,445 1,280, , ,851 39,462 44,480 20,209 94,347 4,550 1,431, ,662 48,927 44,668 20, ,008 3,102 1,597, , ,705 51,679 45,125 21, ,628 3,134 1,743, , ,985 53,320 45,927 21, ,844 3,189 1,938, , ,255 58,477 46,646 21, ,814 3,265 2,120, ,078, ,837 65,113 47,151 22, ,621 3,320 2,273,379 Source: Karachi Mass Transit Program Investment Opportunity February 2012 by KMTC / KMC 7 Total STATUS OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE TRANSPORT IN KARACHI 8 16

26 No. of Motorcycle Ownership (/1,000pers) No. of Passenger Car Ownership (/1,000pers) %age Increase Pakistan Academy of Engineering TRANSPORT SECTOR OVERVIEW Road Network - 9,943 KM Registered Vehicles Million Percent Contribution of Trips by Public Transport % No. of Public Transport Vehicles - 12, percentage Increase Years Source: JICA Travel Demand Study for Karachi, Vehicle Growth Rate GROWTH IN VEHICLE OWNERSHIP OF KARACHI 1,000,000 Vehicle Registration and Ownership , , , , , Motorcycle Registration and Ownership 1,200, , , , , Year ,000, , , , No. fo Passenger cars Ownership 200, Year No. fo Motorcycle Ownership Source: JICA KTIP

27 STATUS OF EXISTING PUBLIC TRANSPORT (VEHICLE COUNT V/S OCCUPANCY COMPARISON) 4.5% composition of Public Transport Vehicles carry 42% of Total Persons Traveling in the City. Private Cars which is 36.5% of Total Vehicular Traffic carries only 21% of Persons. Showing Lesser Average Vehicle Occupancy. The above leads to the conclusion that there is still deficiency of Public Transport availability on all Major Routes in the city. 11 Source: KTIP Study by JICA ( ) VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY TOWN Source: JICA KTIP

28 POPULATION V/S VEHICLE REGISTRATION TRENDS (COMPARISON) NOTE: No. of Vehicles projected based on an Annual Growth Rate of 4.5% after 2014, without any Mass Transit Project. NOTE: Present percentage of ownership of private vehicles is about10%. This will increase to 16% if Mass Transit Program is not implemented. 13 TIME SAVING BENEFITS A Average pay per month 7,000/- B Working days 30 C 14 Working hours/day 8 D Total working hours in a month [B*C] 240 E Average cost per hour [A/D] F Average pay per minute 0.49 G Bus running time for km/h speed 78 mins H Train running time for km/h speed 35 mins I Time saving by KCR travel [F-G] 43 mins J Time saving cost per day / per passenger [F*I] Rs K KCR passengers per day 698,955 L KCR passengers per year 242,537,385 M Time Cost saving per year [J*L] Rs 5,069,589,182 N Time cost saving per year [Rs. Million] 5, Say US$ Millions [US$ 1 = Rs.82.5]

29 VEHICULAR AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS FROM FUEL CONSUMPTION (KM PER DAY) DIESEL CONSUMPTION 7% 7% PETROL CONSUMPTION 9% 32% 54% 37% 52% 2% CO2 1% 0% 0% CO2 Hydrocarbon Hydrocarbon Sulphur dioxide 99% Sulphur dioxide 99% Nitrogen oxide Nitrogen oxide Particulate Matter Particulate Matter 15 ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 1 20

30 TRAVEL DEMAND MILLION m 5.43 m 5.21 m 2.2 m 0.58 m VEHICLE POPULATION 17 TRIPS 22 m TRANSPORT CHALLENGES Fast urbanization Rapid Motorization Increasing Traffic Congestion Absence of an efficient Mass Transit System Declining Road Safety, Air Quality and Growing Noise Pollution In-Effective Traffic Police and Motor Vehicle Inspection System Fragmentation of Authorities 18 21

31 OPTIONS AND SOLUTIONS 19 OPERATING AT HIGH FREQUENCY VEHICLES WITH LARGE CARRYING CAPACITY MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM MOBILITY OF MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PASSENGERS SHORTEST POSSIBLE TIME 20 22

32 BUS Rapid Transit (BRT) System Bagota, Columbia (Center of Road) Guangzhou, China (Center of Road) Santiago, Chile (On Kerb) Guangzhou, China (Center of Road) 21 VARIOUS MASS TRANSIT MODES (LRT) Light Rapid Transit (LRT) In Bangkok 22 23

33 VARIOUS MASS TRANSIT MODES (Metro Rail) Tokyo Metro Rail London Underground Dubai Metro London Underground Dehli Metro 23 OPTIONS AND SOLUTIONS Underground Metro Rail: Ideal system for providing mobility from the CBD s Areas to the outskirts of the City. Underground spine from Jahangir Park [Empress Market] to Tower via I. I. Chundrigar Road and M. A. Jinnah Road. Spine from Jahangir Park to NIPA Cost of the Project imposes major constraints and is not doable in present condition 24 24

34 OPTIONS AND SOLUTIONS Revival of Karachi Circular Railway Land for Right of Way and Terminals available No major Traffic Diversions: Relocation of Utility Services Feasibility study completed MRT [Metro Rail Transit] at grade and elevated on high density corridors Bus Rapid Transit: Level 1: Bus Lane along kerb side Level 2: Bus Way in center of road Level 3: BRT on dedicated lane at grade / elevated 25 OPTIONS AND SOLUTIONS SHORT TERM: Implementation of Revival of KCR Project BRT Projects Blue Line Red Line Green Line Yellow Line LONG TERM: KCR Extension to Airport KCR Extension to Steel Mill, Port Qasim Implementation of BRT Corridors Orange Line Purple Line Aqua Line Provision of underground Metro to be explored 26 25

35 27 PUBLIC CONCERNS TO BE ADDRESSED IN MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM Access to bus stop Waiting time at bus stop On board comfort Conductor's manner of service Routing Operation hours Frequency Drivers driving behavior Travel speed (time) On board security Fare level 3.4% 4.9% 5.5% 6.9% 7.1% 8.2% 8.5% 8.8% 9.5% 12.9% 28 S. No. CRITERIA PERCENTAGE 1 Fare level 24.3% 2 On board security 12.9% 3 Travel speed (time) 9.5% 4 Drivers driving behavior 8.8% 5 Frequency 8.5% 6 Operation hours 8.2% 7 Routing 7.1% 8 Conductor's manner of service 6.9% 9 On board comfort 5.5% 10 Waiting time at bus stop 4.9% 11 Access to bus stop 3.4% 24.3% Source: CNG Bus Study, KMTC,

36 APPROVED PROJECTS 29 APPROVED PROJECTS Sr. No. Mass Transit Line Length in km Estimated Cost (PKR Billion) Status Source of Funding 1. BRT Blue Line (tentative) RFP on PPP mode under preparation KMC under PPP Arrangement 2. BRT Yellow Line BRT Green Line BRT Red Line KCR (infrastructure) Rolling Stock under PPP Mode To be ascertained US$ Ml (Sep 09) US$ Ml (Aug 12) Financial BIDS opening on 02-Jan-15 PC-I approved by GOP (04-Dec-14) Under negotiations Appraisal Mission of JICA awaited KMC Under PPP Arrangement Financed by GoP (Ministry of Communications) Finance by Asian Development Bank Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) 30 27

37 Policy and Strategy 31 POLICY STRUCTURE OBJECTIVES / VISION RESOURCE COMMITMENT INSTITUTIONAL SETUP PROJECTS / PROGRAMS Monitoring Performance Evaluation Travel in Karachi is no longer stressful. Transport capacity satisfies the demand. Mass transit is operated. Road traffic is safe. Bus service is available in entire Karachi Road supports economy with minimum environmental impact

38 TRANSPORTATION STRATEGY (SUSTAINABLE & INTEGRATED APPROACH) LAND USE Long-Term Urban Planning, Integration of Developments Vehicle Ownership Restraint Vehicle Usage Restraint Traffic Management / ITS Enhance Safety & Accessibility Judiciously Expand Road Network Transport Integrated Land-Use / Transport Planning Develop / Expand Rapid Transit Improve Bus Services Integrate Bus / Rail Network & Ticketing Enhance Commuter Accessibility Conducive Financing Options ENVIRONMENT Emission Standards, Cleaner Fuels, Enforcement Green Vehicles, Education 33 CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR MASS TRANSIT PROGRAM Local and International Investors would be comfortable with the availability of the following: Karachi strategic Development plan 2020 Karachi Transport Master Plan (2030) Population Forecast, Travel Demand Trend, Road Network, Transit Network, Implementation Cost Profile etc. Feasibility Report of two + four BRT lines Pre-feasibility of Blue Line and Brown Line for MRT Legal cover in the form of PPP act (2010) Government support at all levels. Political will and commitment 34 29

39 THE COST OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION FOR KARACHI Prof. Dr. Mir Shabbar Ali 2 1. INTRODUCTION In the last two decades, rapid growth and urbanization brings precarious issues to the under developing countries. Mainly all these issues are classified as public issues which leads towards drastic impact to the settlements. One of the eminent problems faced by all classes of population is road transportation. The inefficient transportation infrastructure has been the main restraint for the development [1]. The large cities of Pakistan face similar types of congestion problems, and there is no such effort present at the moment that quantifies the amount of monetary losses due to congestion. Although, there are a number of efforts made to accommodate and facilitate the increasing traffic in urban areas but congestion seems to be an unresolved issue. Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) formerly known as CDGK established a command and control system to monitor traffic flow but the data that has been generated, Lahore Mass Transportation System (BRT) initiated to tackle traffic congestion. Keeping this in view, this research was conducted to investigate the amount of congestion and then quantify it in terms of cost. For this purpose one of the busiest and significantly important road stretch of Karachi were selected which mainly serves the activities associated with an industries and port. The research was designed to ascertain the traffic congestion with a conventional approach. Numbers of traffic parameters were collected through field surveys. This paper contains the description about study area, type of data collected for this study and findings 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 The problem of traffic congestion in major cities of the world like Karachi is a frequent phenomenon. The traffic congestion tends to prolong and hinder a number of economic activities in the city. The studies on traffic associated issues and threats are examine under different domains such as environment and health. In contrast, economical loss due to traffic is also investigated in a number of ways. Arnott and Small [2] studied and described the undesirable effects of traffic to their environments, like air degradation due to vehicle emission and traffic noise pollution along with the congestion. McKinnon [3] studied the effect of traffic congestion on logistical operations. Goodwin [4] discussed about the transportation management issues for resolution of traffic congestion faced in Europe. Thomson and Bull [5] discussed about the concerns associated with traffic congestion. 2 Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan 30

40 2.2 A recently released documents show that future commuters using the proposed US29 Western Bypass will save up to 22:30 minutes each day by utilizing the bypass. A comparison of travel times for the year 2040 with and without the Bypass was developed. Table below provides this data. The figure below provides 20 minutes time-speed data. Australian Government, Department of Transport and Regional Service,[6] estimated congestion cost for a year approximately USD 10 billion which comprises operating cost, private time cost and business time cost for all Australian cities. Another research was also conducted for Dhaka city; Bangladesh [7], estimated congestion cost for a year was USD billion. This cost comprises environmental, vehicle operating cost, social cost, travel time cost etc. The methodology was based on collecting data regarding travel time, and number of vehicles. Goodwin [8] came up with the findings for UK that economic cost of traffic congestion was approximately USD 30 billion for a year in 2004 and predicted that this may increase up to USD50 billion in The method used was composed of collecting data for free flow speed, traffic volume, congestion delay and value of time. Congestion cost is also estimated through a simulation the study, Garrido [9] used micro simulation technique to estimate the traffic congestion cost of the Antofagasta, Chile having population of around 0.4 million inhabitants. The study described the simulation procedure and concluded that the average congestion cost of working day is approximately USD 1.02 Million. DRIVING CYCLE ATTRIBUTES Test schedule City Highway High speed AC Cold temp Trip type Higher City test Free-flow AC use Low speeds in speeds; w/colder traffic at under hot stop-and-go harder outside highway ambient urban traffic acceleration temperat speeds conditions & braking ure Top speed 56 mph 60 mph 80 mph 54.8 mph 56 mph Average speed 20 mph 48 mph 48 mph 22 mph 20 mph Max mph/sec 3.2 mph/sec 8.46 mph/sec acceleration mph/sec mph/sec Simulated distance 11 mi. 10 mi. 8 mi. 3.6 mi. 11 mi. 31

41 Time 31 min min. 10 min. 9.9 min. 31 min. Stops 23 None Idling time 18% of time None 7% of time 19% of 18% of time time Engine start up a Cold Warm Warm Warm Cold Lab temperature o F o F o F 95 o F 20 o F Vehicle air conditioning Off Off Off On Off Source: U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2.3 It is important to note that traffic congestion imposes a number effect on the daily life of the transportation system users as well as non-users. Its breadth and depth range from internal impacts and extend to the external impacts. 3. STUDY AREA The study area situated in one of the economical hub city of Pakistan viz. Karachi; having significant importance to provide service to the industrial area and port activity. This is a long stretch of road in which one end is located in the urban area, dominated by residential houses, and other end sited in the industrial area having oil refineries and other industries. The length of road stretch is about 25 km serving the heterogeneous traffic which includes light and heavy traffic from bikes to container trucks. This road stretch is highly feasible for commercial activity because of its significance. These commercial activities held along the stretch mainly in the urban area which tends to increase the traffic congestion. The study area was divided into 9 observation points amongst which seven were intersections and two of them were mid-block points. Among these points four points are situated in urban area and five points are located in the industrial area. The Figure-1 shows the map of road stretch which segments into urban and industrial area and the points identified the observation spots in the stretch. 32

42 Figure-1: Showing road stretch as Urban Area and Industrial Area 4. DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING 4.1 The project methodological framework encompassed the data collection, data processing, data analysis and the final step of congestion estimation and valuation, based on the collected data. For data collection, an instrumented vehicle which was indigenously developed by NED University having mounted video cameras and tracker system was used for traffic volume observations at 9 different locations mentioned above. The data was collected in two time phases, morning and evening, with time interval between 8:00am to 1:00pm and 3:00pm to 8:00pm respectively. The morning and evening data hours were considered so as to record the peak traffic hours. The data at each point was collected for two days in order to counter the effect of the variations. Among these survey points two control points were established. The purpose of these control points was to control the data variation of non-counted hours and to develop an urban and industrial average data throughout the link. The data at control points, Malir Kalaboard and Bin Qasim Intersection, was collected for longer durations with the strategy to extrapolate the data for supplementary intervals. Volume data was characterized into different travel modes such as: Cars, Motorcycles, Rickshaw, Pickup, Buses, Trucks and Trailers, Bicycles and Animal Carts for non-motorized modes of transport. The delay study conducted on the field with the help of same indigenous vehicle running on the road stretch (from Star Gate to Pakistan Steel) to quantify the delay and their reasons. The delay time was calculated based on the definition that total accumulated time of the vehicle for a trip at which the vehicle is travelling below the reference speed. Various reference speeds such as20, 40 and 60km/hr were used for calculation of delay time as literature does not provide any firm guideline regarding the choice of reference speed [8].Special emphasis was given on the accuracy of the delay data which was calculated manually (through average vehicle technique) as well as through Tracker data set. 4.2 Value of time (VOT) is estimated using a socio-economic survey data from the commuters of this road stretch. The socio-economic survey was based on the questionnaire which provides information about commuter s mode choice and different 33

43 attributes of the travel modes such as travel cost, travel time and waiting time in case of Public and Para transit types of mode. The idea was to estimate VOT of the individuals travelling in different modes using an indirect technique which is based on estimating mode specific utility equations that includes travel time and travel cost parameters, as a part of multinomial logic model form [10].The estimated VOT values are utilized to measure opportunity cost component of traffic congestion. Fuel efficiency and fuel consumption data for different types of modes, prevailing along that road stretch, was gathered to estimate vehicle operating cost component of traffic congestion cost. Equation (1) and (2) represents the expressions utilized to compute opportunity and vehicle operating costs. m OC = m=1 (VOT m Delay m V m Vocc m ) Eq. (1) Where, OC= Opportunity Cost of traffic congestion, VOT m = Value of time for specific mode m, Delay m =travel delay in time units observed for mode m (estimated at some reference speed),v m =number of vehicles of type m per day, Vocc m = Average vehicle occupancy for specific mode m. VOC = L m m=1 (FC m Delay m V m ) Eq. (2) Where, VOC= Vehicle operating Cost, FC m = Fuel cost in Rs/hr for specific mode m, V m and Delay m have the same meaning mentioned earlier and L= length of stretch in km. Where, FC m is calculated using equation (3). FC m = 3 Ft=1 (Fcq Ft m Fp Ft μ Ft ) Eq.(3) Where, Fcq m = Fuel consumption quantity in litres/km or kg/km of specific mode m, Fp Ft = fuel price of specific fuel typesft = 1, 2 and 3 such as CNG, Gasoline and Diesel, respectively in Rs. / liter or Rs/kg.μ Ft =proportion of specific mode type m using a particular fuel type for travelling on that road stretch. 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 5.1 The collected data was compiled according to the parameters described in equations (1), (2) and (3). The average values of the volume collected at 9 different locations are given in Table-1. As the survey data was gathered only for 16 hours of the day, these values are adjusted to represents values for a single average day. Some past studies results were utilized to derive those adjustment factors. In addition to this, Table-1 also provides observed values of vehicle occupancy for each different type of mode travelling on the stretch of the segment. The travel mode, bike (motorcycles) contributed largely to the traffic stream compared to all other vehicle types. The presence of significant amount of bikes is mainly due to the inconvenient public transport system prevailing in Karachi. There is also significant numbers of Trucks present in the traffic stream because of the type of land use in the neighborhood of this road stretch. Large numbers of industries are located nearby and also this road provides access to a major seaport in Karachi. Due to this fact significant number of office Vans (privately hired vehicle such as coasters and Hiace) are 34

44 also seen frequently during peak hours; which carries passengers from the residence to the industries and vice versa. It is interesting to note that the average vehicle occupancy of car obtained was low compared to its seating capacity. This is because most of the commuters which are using car for their own travel. Figure-2 further describes the percentage of different modes present in the stream. Table-1: Classified volume and vehicle occupancy Modes Volume(veh/ day) Vehicle Occupancy Car Taxi Office Van Three Wheeler Bike Public Transport Truck PERCENTAGE SHARE OF MODE Truck 12% Public Transport 13% Car 27% Bike 30% Figure- 2: Mode percentage share in the traffic stream 5.2 Table-2 describes the average speed of classified modes on that road stretch. The road is classified as major urban arterial road, which basically fulfills the purpose of mobility and the design speed is around 110 km/hr. The average speed of the road clearly depicting the prevailing condition of the arterial that is partly due to the deteriorated pavement structure and partly due to the increased demand, both of these factors in combination creating frequent traffic jams along the road stretch. Table-2 also shows estimated travel delays for each representative travel mode at two reference speeds (i.e. 20km/hr and 30km/hr). The table demonstrates that the delay of a particular mode is directly proportional but the increment of delay is not similar among the modes which describe the mobility characteristic of that mode. It may be clearly observed from that the table the bike has less delay and truck has the largest delay in both the reference speed, which in mainly due to their size. Taxi 4% Office Van 10% Three Wheeler 4% 35

45 Table-2: Average speed and average delay under reference speed Modes Average Speed Avg. Delay (Min/ Veh) Avg. Delay (Min/ Veh) (km/ hr) at ref. speed 20kph at ref. speed 30kph Car Taxi Office Van Three Wheeler Bike Public Transport Truck The value of time was also estimated in this study using an indirect approach, more details of this can be seen in Adnan et al [11], however, VOT values are shown with respect to mode users in Table-3. Average fuel consumption quantity of classified modes and their proportions (i.e.µ 1,µ 2, µ 3 )are also shown in same table. Fuel consumption quantities are estimated by running various test vehicles of same mode type on the road stretch. The proportions of vehicles using different fuel type is determined based on physical examination of various travel modes based on sample size of 300 vehicle of each mode type. 5.4 The results shown in the Table 1, 2 and 3 are utilized in quantifying the level of congestion and traffic congestion cost using equations (1), (2) and (3). As shown in the Table-2 above, time loss for average vehicle type is approximately 10minutes/trip using conservative definition of delay (i.e. 20km/hr reference speed) along with the volume of traffic which is 60,000 vehicles/day. On these bases, total delay was found out to be 600,000 minutes/day which is nearly 410 days/day. The Level of Service (LOS) for this stretch was fond out to be D. The free flow travel time for the stretch, was 17 minutes, but in actual circumstances average travel time per average vehicle is found to be 30minutesfor the complete stretch of road which is around 21km. The per trip additional time as associated to the free flow speed is approximately 175%of the free flow travel time, which provides travel time index value as Furthermore, a very interesting fact is that the free flow speed is hardly achievable on this track at any time of the day. Table-3. Vehicle classified VOT with µ-factor and fuel consumption quantity Modes VOT (Rs/hr) µ 1 µ 2 µ 3 Fcq CNG (kg/km) Fcq Gasoline (lt/km) Fcq Diesel (lt/km) Car Taxi Office Van Three Wheeler Bike Public Transport Truck

46 Cost in Million USD per Year Pakistan Academy of Engineering Table-4: Total Cost of direct traffic congestion per day in Pak Rupees Items Loss in PKR Opportunity Cost (OC) 1,897,800 Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) 1,042,000 Wear and Tear Cost (10% of VOC) 104,200 Total Cost 3,044, Based on the collected data and observed results, the Table-4 shows total direct traffic congestion cost as around 3million PKR per day (30,440 USD per day) for the road stretch under study using conservative definition of travel delay (i.e. 20 km/hr reference speed). On per year basis, this figure will be approximately 11 Million USD per annum. This is significant amount of monetary value that could be avoided by taking counteractive measures. It is a very high cost especially when compared to the GDP. Therefore, as happened in the Western World, serious mitigation steps needs to be implied here as well. Furthermore, this is the loss incurred due to traffic congestion at a particular commuter stretch. This value when extrapolated to the whole of Karachi city it makes the issue more cumbersome. Thus, the policy making institutions needs to take serious actions to deal with it. Traffic Congestion Cost -Extrapolation Years Figure-3: Extrapolation of traffic congestion cost of Karachi in future years 5.6 The simple extrapolation of the traffic congestion cost for whole arterial network of Karachi city can be done by calculating per km cost for the stretch under study, which is around 0.53 Million USD per km per year. This cost needs to be multiplied with the existing length of arterial network of Karachi i.e km. This will amount to a total cost of Million USD per year for the whole of Karachi which is equivalent to 2% of the total revenue of Pakistan. Figure 3 presents extrapolation of the value obtained for Karachi for the future 10 years based on 10% constant inflation rate. 5.7 Figure-3 indicates that in the year 2018, (which is 5 years from now), the Karachi congestion cost will exceed 1billion USD per year, which is representing 2% of the total GDP share of Karachi. So, in essence this suggests that for an urban city of a developing country, traffic congestion cost may be around 1-2% of the GDP that particular city is 37

47 contributing. In this manner, four major urban cities GDP share is noted, and against that traffic congestion cost is estimated in the Table-5. Table-5: Total Cost of direct traffic congestion for other cities in Pakistan City GDP Share in Pakistan Economy (231 Billion USD) Traffic Congestion Cost ( Billion USD per year) Lahore 15% Faisalabad Rawalpindi Multan 8% 1% 1% CONCLUSIONS This research study estimated the traffic congestion cost of Karachi, a metropolis city of Pakistan. In addition to it also estimates the possible cost of traffic congestion in other large cities of Pakistan based on an assumed extrapolation strategy. This research is the first of its kind in the country, and paves way for further assessment in other parts of the country in order to find out the scale of the problem that is being caused by traffic congestion. The current and projected cost of this traffic congestion as compared with GDP demonstrates the importance of this problem. The policy making institutions needs to take serious actions to deal with it. Furthermore, this is the loss incurred directly due to traffic congestion and does not included the cost associated with environmental degradation cost. If this cost is also included it will gives a more horrifying picture. References [1] Goulias, K. G., Transportation system and Planning, Methods and Application. [2] Arnott, R., Small, K.A., The economics of traffic congestion. American Scientist 82, p [3] McKinnon, A., The effect of traffic congestion on the efficiency of logistical operations. International Journal of Logistics: Research and Applications 2 (2), p [4] Goodwin, P.B. and Dargay, J., Traffic congestion in Europe, OECD, ECMT Round Table 110. [5] Thomson, I. and Bull, A., La congestion deltra nsitourbano: causas y consecuenciasecono micas y 38ocials [Urban traffic congestion: economic and social causes and consequences]. Serie de RecursosNaturales e Infraestructura. Cepal. No. 25. [6] Australian Government, Department of Transport and Regional service, Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities, work paper 71. [7] Khan, T., and Islam, R. M., Estimating Costs of Traffic Congestion in Dhaka City, International Journal of Engineering Science and Innovative Technology (IJESIT), 2(3). [8] Goodwin, P.B., The economic costs of road traffic congestion. London: University College London, ESRC Transport Studies Unit, Discussion Paper. [9] Garrido, N Computing the cost of traffic congestion: a micro simulation exercise of the City of Antofagasta, Chile, Transportation Planning and Technology. [10] Hess, S., Bierlaire, M. and PolakJ.W., Estimation of value-of-time using mixed Logit Models, Technical Paper RO [11]Adnan M., Ali,M.S. BaqueriS. F.A, Noman S.M, 2013, Estimation of Value of Time for commuters in Karachi, Fourth International Symposium on Infrastructure Engineering in Developing Countries, IEDC 2013.Submitted for publication. 38

48 PRESENTATION Presentation Outlook Understanding the real issue Devising Methodology to gather information Data processing and results Macro scale results Conclusion and way forward Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 2 Significance of the issue How much these frequent traffic jams cost to society? Numbers required for appropriate decision making Realize cost impacts, and consequences if remedial measures are not taken. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 3 39

49 Economics of Traffic Congestion Urban traffic congestion imposes economic costs which may expand outside metropolis business costs affects productivity and output levels Industry sector is sensitive to traffic congestion Transportation-based market area has dependence on access to skilled labor, access to specialized inputs. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 5 40

50 Traffic Congestion Cost Beneficial for industries to ascertain the role of traffic congestion in their overall costing/budgeting Effectiveness of congestion reduction strategies can be identified. Tax and Tariff rationalization Urban development policy framework Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 6 DRIVING CYCLE ATTRIBUTES City Highway High speed AC Cold temp Trip type Higher Free-flow City test speeds; AC use under Low speeds in stopand-go urban traffic highway outside traffic at w/colder harder hot ambient acceleration conditions speeds temperature & braking Top speed 56 mph 60 mph 80 mph 54.8 mph 56 mph Average speed 20 mph 48 mph 48 mph 22 mph 20 mph Max mph/sec 3.2 mph/sec 5.1 mph/sec acceleration mph/sec mph/sec Simulated distance 11 mi. 10 mi. 8 mi. 3.6 mi. 11 mi. Time 31 min min. 10 min. 9.9 min. 31 min. Stops 23 None Idling time 18% of time None 7% of time 19% of time 18% of time Engine startup a Cold Warm Warm Warm Cold Lab temperature o F o F o F 95 o F 20 o F Vehicle air conditioning Off Off Off On Off 41

51 Research Methodology Roadway Demand/Flow Level Roadway Geometric and Driver Characteristics Traffic Congestion Travel Delays More than anticipated time for Journey Opportunity Cost/ Lost Business Social Cost Economic Cost Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 8 Study Area Sharea Faisal from Star gate intersection-pakistan Steel intersection JINNAH TERMINAL MALIR HALT MALIR KALABOARD MALIR 15 BIN QASIM ROAD QUAIDABAD Y B CHORANGI FAST UNI STOP PAKISTAN STEEL Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 9 42

52 Volume Data Collection 9 SURVEY POINTS 7 INTERSECTIONS HOURS STAR GATE 12 MALIR HALT 12 MALIR KALABOARD 16 MALIR QUAIDABAD 12 MANZIL PUMP 12 FAST UNIVERSITY 12 PORT QASIM 16 PAKISTAN STEEL 12 2 MIDLINKS HOURS QUAIDABAD 12 FAST UNIVERSITY 12 2 CONTROL POINTS DATA WAS COILLECTED FOR 2 DAYS AT EACH POINT Key Deliverables of the Research Project Ascertaining the level of congestion through key traffic parameters of a selected road of Karachi Quantification of the cost of congestion as a general estimate incorporating all road users. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 11 43

53 Volume Data Collection Method Used -Instrumented Vehicle based video recording at selected points -2 control points are established where data was collected for 16 hours ( hrs) -10 hours data with the split of morning ( hrs) and evening ( hrs)rush hours at all locations except control points. -Volume data were also collected during Ramadan at control points. -To capture effects of increased oil tanker movements, this data was collected again at various spots of the stretch. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 1. VOLUMETRIC COUNT Volume Data Collection 12 INSTRUMENTED VEHILCE WAS USED FOR THIS PURPOSE 44

54 Space-Time Traffic Speed Variation Using Dedicated Tracker System system Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 14 Research Findings Some General Statistics Congestion Level Congestion Costing Normal Conditions With Oil Tankers Ramadan Scenario Extrapolation to Whole Karachi Arterial Network Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 15 45

55 Heavy Vehicles (Trucks), 8% Transport Modes Distribution (Over the stretch length) Public Transport, 14% Car, 30% Heavy Vehicles (Trucks), 38% Car, 28% Bike, 28% Three Wheeler, 4% Taxi, 8% Office Vans, 7% Public Transport, 12% Bike, 7% Taxi, 5% Office Three Vans, Wheeler, 8% 1% Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 16 Traffic Volume and vehicle occupancy Modes Volume Vehicle (veh/ day) Occupancy Car Taxi Office Van Three Wheeler Motorcycle Public Transport Truck

56 Average speed and average delay under reference speed Modes Avg. Delay Avg. Delay Average (Min/ Veh) at (Min/ Veh) at Speed ref. speed ref. speed (km/ hr) 20kph 30kph Car Three Wheeler Motor Cycle Buses Truck Traffic Attributes (Normal Conditions) Attributes Values Further Details Average Daily Traffic 51,000 veh / day / direction 46,000 veh / day (Min) 60,900 veh / day (Max) Morning peak Evening peak Average Delay (Off Peak) (40 Km/hr base Reference speed) Average Delay (Peak) (40 Km/hr base Reference speed) Time: 8:30 9:30am Average: 2620veh / hour Time: 5:30 6:30pm Average: 3550veh / hour 2510 veh / hour(min) 2927 veh / hour (Max) Capacity: 3400veh/hour (LOS D)* 3430 veh / hour (Min) 3700 veh / hour (Max) Capacity: 3400 veh / hour (LOS E)* 16 min / trip 13 min / trip (Min) 18 min /trip (Max) 25 min/ trip 22 min / trip (Min) 30 min/trip (Max) Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 19 47

57 Congestion Level Free-Flow Travel Time of the stretch has been found as 17 minutes, corresponding to 70 km/hr travel speed. (Design speed of the stretch is more than 100 km/hr). Travel Time Index (TTI) has been estimated as around 1.75 ~ 1.95, corresponding to avg. travel time of more than 30 minutes. Roadway Congestion Index (RCI) was found as 2.36 for overall stretch. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 20 Congestion Cost Estimation Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 21 48

58 ECONOMIC Economic COST COST Project Focus ECONOMIC COST DIRECT COST Cost beared directly by the user Opportunity Cost Vehicle Operating Cost INDIRECT COST Cost incurred to industries (loss in business) Social cost Noise pollution Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering Congestion cost estimation framework Fuel Consumption (liters/km) Vehicle operating cost Opportunity cost 49

59 Value of Time (VOT) Transport Mode Average Income Group Rs. Avg. Value of time (VOT) Rs./hr % in Sample Size Car 50,000 80, % Taxi 50,000 80, % Office Van 30,000 50, % Motor Cycle 10,000 30, % Public Transport < 10,000 Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering % Truck 10,000-15, % Average 70.1 Value of time for India = 0.75 US$ (0.7 US$) Value of time for Bangladesh = 0.72 US$ Vehicle Operating Cost VOC is considered only in terms of fuel consumption. Fuel consumption parameters were gathered for different modes in terms of the following: Vehicle fuel consumption in terms of Kg/Km and Liters/km Estimated proportion of vehicles using different types of fuels such as CNG, Gasoline (Patrol) and Deisel Fuel Prices (Rs. /kg) or (Rs. /liter) Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 25 50

60 Vehicle classified Value of time Modes VOT (Rs/hr) Car 87 Taxi 80 Office Van 75 Three Wheeler 60 Bike 44 Public Transport 34 Truck 35 Total Cost of traffic congestion per day in Pak Rupees Items Loss in PKR Opportunity Cost (OC) 1,897,800 Vehicle Operating Cost 1,042,000 (VOC) Wear and Tear Cost 104,200 (10% of VOC) Total Cost 3,044,000 51

61 Spot Contributions S. No 1 Spot Malir 15 Intersection 2 Railway Crossing 3 4 Illegal Parking of Oil Tanker near Port Qasim Encroachment at Ganchi Market Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering Reason Encroachment, Improper Traffic Management Access point, Manual Traffic Management Encroachment, Lane blocking Encroachment Decrease in ROW Current Contribution (Million PKR/Day) Impact After 5 Years (Million PKR/Day) Karachi Congestion Cost- Extrapolated According to results obtained from this study, per km cost of traffic congestion is around 0.51 million PKR /day, which is significantly high. If extrapolation is made for the whole Karachi metropolitan (for arterial stretch of around 1300 km) this will surpass the figure of 663 Million PKR per day (annually around 2.5 Billion US dollars). This suggests that authorities need to find feasible solutions to reduce this cost, which is in principle nontangible cost and easily avoidable. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 29 52

62 Cost in Million USD per Year Pakistan Academy of Engineering Conclusion & Way Forward The research findings portrayed the scale of the problem caused due to traffic congestion, often ignored due to its intangible nature. Both Transport Supply & Transport Demand Management solutions are required to be investigated for effective remedy of the existing situation. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering Traffic Congestion Cost- Extrapolation Years 53

63 Congestion reduction strategies can induce additional traffic as a result of economic benefits Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering 32 The way forward 54

64 INTERNATIONAL STATUS OF E-MOBILITY Prof Dr Nasim A. Khan 3 1. BACKGROUND Pakistan spent more than thirteen billions US Dollars on import of petroleum and petroleum products during the year 2012 that has been going on for decades. This expenditure is tremendous burden on foreign currency reserves that departs the country without directly adding to national economy. One of the major consumers of petroleum products is automobiles; therefore there is a requirement to develop new vehicles that have potential to reduce this drain on national exchequer. Most of the vehicles that are assembled in Pakistan, more specifically in Karachi Sindh, are made with imported assemblies from foreign countries as such industrial base as well as jobs related to manufacture of these assemblies are not available to Pakistani technicians & labor force. Most of the profit earned by sale of hundreds of thousands of these vehicles is repatriated to the international owners of automobile companies. Whereas conversion of vehicles to CNG has created new drain on already strained reserves of natural gas while petroleum and CNG remain sources of pollution in cities, the adverse environmental impacts have to be addressed before they cause irreparable damage to the ecology in the country. There is therefore a requirement to reduce oil import bills, reduce repatriation of billions of dollars from sale of vehicles, enhance industrial base for manufacturing sub assemblies of vehicles, reduce stress on CNG consumption, reduce pollution in cities, provide hundreds of thousands of jobs, and reduce dependence on foreign countries. The current article presents solution to this issue. 2. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN E-MOBILITY World is steadily moving towards E-Mobility due to environmental issues and several countries have specified annual targets to be achieved in coming decades. Electric vehicles have been plying on roads since beginning of the twentieth century. In the year 1934 Manhattan had 34 charging stations for electric vehicles and electric trams were operational in Pakistan prior to its emergence. Environmental issues like green house gases that are resulting in uncontrolled global climate change and local situations like smog in most of major cities, availability of petroleum products in near term and lack of control over prices have led to search for alternative vehicular solutions and specifically E-Mobility. Leading countries are already utilizing Electric Vehicles (EV) in the world are shown in the Table-1. EV s have already penetrated making in several countries and leading countries that have achieved good market penetration of electric vehicles in the world are shown in Table-2. Table-1: Leading countries utilizing EVs in the world during the year 2013 USA 172,000 JAPAN 74,124 CHINA 38,592 NETHERLAND 28,673 FRANCE 28,560 NORWAY 20,486 GERMANY 18,000 3 Prof. Dr. Nasim A. Khan is Senior Executive Director at Osmani & Company (Pvt) Ltd ;and Ex Vice Chancellor of Hamdard University, Karachi and Ex Vice Chancellor of Nazeer Hussain University, Karachi 55

65 Table-2: Market penetration of Electric Vehicles in the first ten leading countries of the world during the year 2013 Ranking Country EV Market Share (%) 1 Norway 5.75% 2 Netherlands 0.83% 3 France 0.79% 4 Estonia 0.73% 5 Iceland 0.69% 6 Japan 0.51% 7 Switzerland 0.39% 8 Sweden 0.30% 9 Denmark 0.28% 10 USA 0.28% 3. NATIONAL STRATEGIES OF SOME COUNTRIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-MOBILITY 3.1 Most of the countries shown in the tables earlier have clearly defined national strategy to ensure reduction in Green House Gases and dependence on petroleum products. Some of the initiatives are highlighted in North America, Europe and Asia, which indicate that E-Mobility is going to dominate the international market in the next decade. In the year 2011 President of USA set the goal for the U.S. to become the first country to have 1 million electric vehicles on the road by In September 2014, the Charge Ahead California Initiative set the additional goal to have at least 1 million zero-emission vehicles and near-zero-emission vehicles in California by the year Germany launched a campaign to put 1 million electric cars on the road by 2020, making battery research a priority as it tries to position the country as a market leader and reserving $705 million in stimulus package. The plan has been approved by the German Cabinet with a aim to make Germany into the market leader for electric mobility. One million EV is the target by South Korean government plans to produce 1.2 million electric vehicles a year by The South Korean government s Ministry of Environment is providing a $13,900 nationwide subsidy for EV purchases, and 10 major cities or provincial jurisdictions are providing additional subsidies ranging from $2,800 to $7, TECHNOLOGIES INVOLVED The technologies involved in manufacturing in Electric Vehicles mainly include batteries, motors, drive transmission systems, brake system, steering system, vehicle lighting system, vehicle suspension system, wheels, tires and frame. Although efforts to assemble and manufacture vehicles locally were on since Pakistan s emergence it picked up momentum after creation of Pakistan Automobile Corporation (PACO) a Government body. PACO was also tasked to ensure gradual deletion of components that resulted in large indigenous manufacturing base in the country. That clearly highlights Public Sector Intervention in development of technologies backed by proper legislation. The presence of a dedicated Public Sector organization also resulted in confidence in sub contractors to fabricate components required by PACO indirectly resulting in influx of finances essential for development of any technology stretch all over the country. 56

66 NUMBER NUMBER Pakistan Academy of Engineering 4. GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-MOBILITY E-Mobility is synonymous with several new words in the dictionary; Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHV), Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV) and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (HFCV). The options available indicate whether the vehicle can be charged from stationary source like Charging Stations and most of the vehicles except NEV are designed for long travel distances with high performance. Whenever the issue of vehicle utilization arises the mind directly jumps to high performance vehicles basically meant to meet the requirements of those who can afford luxury. The MINDSET has to be changed at the first instance; shift to high performance vehicles should be deferred at this stage in comparison with low cost low performance NEV s like auto rickshaw, black and yellow cabs, vans, pickups, etc. The number of taxis & rickshaws registered in Karachi are shown in Figure-1. Figure-1. Taxis and Rickshaws registered in Karachi RICKSHAWS AND TAXI'S REGISTERED IN KARACHI 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 RICKSHAWS TYPE OF VEHICLE TAXI'S Another potential electric vehicle is motorcycle. Figure-2 shows registered motor cycles. Conversion of gasoline motorcycles to battery/ electrically charged motorcycles is anticipated to follow very quickly as it makes tremendous economic sense. Figure-2. Growth trend of Motor cycles registered in Karachi M/CYCLES REGISTERED IN KARACHI M/CYCLES ,296, UTILIZATION PATTERN OF AUTO-RICKSHAW IN THE CITIES The auto-rickshaw plying in a city typically has its own character and utilization pattern of Auto Rickshaws is shown in Table-3 that varies from location to location in the city and the data is based on interviews with Auto Rickshaw drivers. A large number of rickshaws are now using CNG and recharging CNG consumes 3-4 hours on each charge. The economic compulsions force them to continue using CNG till the time an alternative more economical is proposed. 57

67 Table-3: Characteristics of Auto Rickshaws Item Quantity Average Daily Running 200 km Max run in one stretch 20 km Average run in a stretch 7 km Average Time between stops 20 mins Maximum Speed 40 km/hr Average Speed 30 km/hr Average No. of Passengers ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING INFRA-STRUCTURE Charging infra structure of electric vehicle will be similar to CNG charging stations that have rapidly grown in all the cities and across major highways of the country. Depending on the distance travelled in one charge, type of batteries, size of batteries, recharging rates of these batteries, charging stations will have different shapes and mechanisms to charge the batteries. A modern rapid electric vehicle charging station is shown in Figure-3. Another concept very familiar in Pakistan is to replace batteries with charged batteries as is the practice with LPG vehicles where LPG cylinders are replaced with filled cylinders as shown in Figure-4. These will be a common picture soon in Pakistan and an excellent business opportunity for electrical engineers to start designing such charging stations. All existing battery charging shops can be first to promote the concept as they have the capability, infra structure, necessary human resource and knowledge. With the passage of time each house may have its own charging system just like UPS. Figure-3: A modern electric Vehicle rapid charging station Figure-4: An electric Vehicle charging station replacing batteries with charged ones 58

68 7. CONCLUSIONS An Electric Vehicle offers all the above advantages and can be developed and truly indigenized in a short span of time that will provide business opportunities to Pakistani investors, industrialists and jobs to designers, engineers, technicians, and labor. Complete manufacture of these vehicles in Pakistan in general and Sindh in particular, will ensure that all funds are kept in circulation in the economy of the Province. Electric vehicles are powered by and operated with the help of batteries that can be manufactured locally if larger sustained order is offered to the Battery Manufacturers. Electric power is transmitted to the wheels through electric motors and such AC motors are being manufactured locally, while they can quickly shift to DC motors manufacturing; body and super structure and suspension systems. The Tires, tubes are already being manufactured locally. Electrical and electronic circuitry can be designed and developed locally. Overall, these vehicles can be manufactured for light and medium size as well as for load carriers. Indigenization will keep prices at affordable limits while addressing all quarters of life and their use will reduce direct vehicular air pollution in the cities. Just like CNG stations these vehicles will be charged through Charging Stations using electricity generated through much more efficient power plants, these vehicles can also be charged using solar, wind and other renewable energy technologies especially in the remote locations. 8. RECOMMENDATIONS E-Mobility should be adopted as a National Manifesto of all sections of the society and simultaneously methodologies developed for their introduction in the public sector. E- Mobility should be resorted through a Federal Law and a draft law is attached as Annex A to this Paper. As implementation of this proposal is envisaged to require a continuous prolonged effort and funds, it needs to have an appropriate organization to ensure its implementation in true spirit of indigenous manufacture. A Bill should therefore be passed by the Government of Pakistan to ensure that all issues are addressed and legislation is available for smooth Introduction of Electric Vehicles in cities like Karachi. 59

69 IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/ MOTIVATION 1. Pakistan spent fourteen and half billion US Dollars on import of petroleum products during the year This expenditure is tremendous burden on foreign currency reserves that departs the country without directly adding to national economy. 3. Major consumer of petroleum products are vehicles; therefore there is a requirement to develop new vehicles that have potential to reduce this drain on national exchequer. IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/ MOTIVATION 4. Most of capital earned by sale of hundreds of thousands of these vehicles are repatriated to the international owners of automobile companies. 5. Whereas conversion of vehicles to CNG has created new drain on already strained reserves of natural gas while petroleum and CNG remain sources of pollution in cities, the adverse environmental impacts have to be addressed before they cause irreparable damage to the ecology in the country. 60

70 IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/ MOTIVATION CONTD.. 6. There is therefore a requirement to reduce oil import bills, reduce repatriation of billions of dollars from sale of vehicles, enhance industrial base for manufacturing sub assemblies of vehicles, reduce stress on CNG consumption, reduce pollution in cities, provide hundreds of thousands of jobs, and reduce dependence on West. International Development ELECTRIC VEHICLES 61

71 EV s inventory in world in 2013 USA 172,000 JAPAN 74,124 CHINA 38,592 NETHERLAND 28,673 FRANCE 28,560 NORWAY 20,486 GERMANY 18,000 USA had 260,000 EV s by September 2014 Ranking Country EV Market Share (%) 1 Norway 5.75% 2 Netherlands 0.83% 3 France 0.79% 4 Estonia 0.73% 5 Iceland 0.69% 6 Japan 0.51% 7 Switzerland 0.39% 8 Sweden 0.30% 9 Denmark 0.28% 10 USA 0.28% 62

72 National Strategies of Selected Countries in Development of E-Mobiles Most of the countries shown in the tables earlier have clearly defined national strategy to ensure reduction in Green House Gases and dependence on petroleum products. Some of the initiatives are highlighted from North America, Europe and Asia, which indicate that E-Mobility is going to dominate international market in next decade. USA In the year 2011 President of USA set the goal for the U.S. to become the first country to have 1 million electric vehicles on the road by In September 2014, the Charge Ahead California Initiative set the additional goal to have at least 1 million zero-emission vehicles and near-zero-emission vehicles in California by the year

73 Germany Germany launched a campaign to put 1 million electric cars on the road by 2020, making battery research a priority as it tries to position the country as a market leader and reserving $705 million in stimulus package. The plan has been approved by German Cabinet with a aim to make Germany into the market leader for electric mobility. One (1) million EV is the target by South Korea South Korean government plans to produce 1.2 million electric vehicles a year by 2015 a nationwide goal of one million registered electric vehicles by the year The South Korean government s Ministry of Environment is providing a $13,900 nationwide subsidy for EV purchases, and 10 major cities or provincial jurisdictions are providing additional subsidies ranging from $2,800 to $7,

74 MILLION Pakistan Academy of Engineering India There are 200,000 e-rickshaws in India Max allowed capacity is 4 persons Max allowed speed is 25 km/hr India, in the year 2013 Launched E- Mobility plan 2020 Revised plan has target of 7 million E- Vehicle by 2020 saving 2.2mtons of fuel and 1.5 pc reduction in CO2 emissions 200 LIGHT VEHICLES SALES BY TECHNOLOGY TYPE PETROL DIESEL CNG/LPG HYBRID PluginHybid ELECTRIC H2FUELCELL

75 Technologies involved The technologies involved in manufacturing in Electric Vehicles mainly include batteries, motors, drive transmission systems, brake system, steering system, vehicle lighting system, vehicle suspension system, wheels, tires and frame. 66

76 67

77 Although efforts to assemble and manufacture vehicles locally were on since Pakistan s emergence it picked up momentum after creation of Pakistan Automobile Corporation (PACO) a Government body. PACO was also tasked to ensure gradual deletion of components that resulted in large indigenous manufacturing base in the country. That clearly highlights Public Sector Intervention in development of technologies backed by proper legislation. Gradual Shift to E-Mobility E-Mobility is synonymous has introduced several new words in dictionary; All Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHV), Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV). 68

78 Change of Mindset The MINDSET has to be changed at the first instance; shift to high performance vehicles should be deferred at this stage in comparison with low cost low performance NEV s like auto rickshaw, black and yellow cabs, vans, pickups, and even second car for short distances. Local Market Assessment/ 69

79 NUMBER Pakistan Academy of Engineering RICKSHAWS AND TAXI'S REGISTERED IN KARACHI 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40, ,000 0 RICKSHAWS TYPE OF VEHICLE TAXI'S A modern electric Vehicle rapid charging station 70

80 An Office Electric vehicles charging stations An Office Electric vehicles charging stations 71

81 Electric vehicles charging station at each business building or in the parking lots. 72

82 Residential Electric Vehicle Charging station 73

83 US DOLLARS Pakistan Academy of Engineering 4,000,000 COMPARISON OF OPERATIONAL COST BETWEEN SPARK ELECTRIC CAR AND SPARK PETROL CAR 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 SPARK ELECTRIC CAR SPARK PETROL CAR non rebated Ecar cost 1,500,000 1,000, , IDENTIFICATION OF ISSUES/ MOTIVATION Pakistan is very experienced in missing technology boats in time and repenting later, one more very attractive opportunity can also slip away unless; we ENGINEERS TAKE AN ADVANCE NOTICE AND REACT TO CATCH THE TECHNOLOGY SHIP 74

84 THE ULTIMATE SOLUTION Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan 4 The Human Development Report issued by the United Nations (1998) makes very significant observation relevant to our context: Developing countries face a fundamental choice. They can mimic the industrial countries, and go through a development phase that is dirty and wasteful and creates an enormous amount of pollution. Or they can leapfrog over some of the steps followed by industrial countries and incorporate modern efficient technologies The developed countries are moving towards decarbonised transport systems. New technologies are emerging to transform the fossil driven systems through a sustainable shift. The demand for mobility is increasing, particularly in the developing countries. It is expected that in the next 10 years the auto industry will undergo a change not seen in the past 100 years. Currently the total world population of road vehicles exceeds one billion. The personal cars are around 800 million. It is estimated that by 2030 this population will be doubled. The European Commission s programme HORIZON 2020 very elaborately defines the specific objective of the Transport Challenge in terms of smart, green and integrated transport, a transport system that is resource efficient, climate and environmentally friendly, safe and seamless for the benefit of all citizens, the economy and society The Human Development Report issued by the United Nations (1998) makes a very significant observation relevant to our context: Developing countries face a fundamental choice. They can mimic the industrial countries, and go through a development phase that is dirty and wasteful and creates an enormous legacy of pollution. Or they can leapfrog over some of the steps followed by industrial countries and incorporate modern efficient technologies. A key role will be played by electric road vehicles to design a new future for urban mobility, reduction in environmental pollution and decreasing dependence on fossil fuels. The auto industry is experiencing the convergence of factors that make Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars more viable than the battery operated ones, and the former will soon gain ground on the latter in the race to develop zero-emission vehicles. There is a general consensus that in terms of durability, cold start, packaging, acceleration, refueling time and range the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles are performing to an extent that they could be brought to the market in The HFCVs are technically ready and the customer expectations will be satisfied. In the niche areas such as forklifts, mining machinery and backup power, significant commercial adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technology has been achieved. It has been recognized globally that the future is hydrogen based transport, because the fuel cell vehicles address two main short comings to today s battery-powered cars successfully: short driving range and long charging times. In the industrialized countries transition from Hydrocarbon to Hydrogen Economy has already commenced. Let us examine the worldwide status of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology and prospects for its commercialization: It will be highly educative to survey the latest global efforts being made to commercialize the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles. 4 Dr. Ing Jameel Ahmad Khan is the President, Pakistan Academy of Engineering and Ex- Vice Chancellor of NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi 75

85 President of the US announced the famous Hydrogen Fuel Initiative in his 2003 State of the Union Address. It was aimed at developing commercially viable hydrogen fuel cell and infrastructure technologies by the year Subsequently, a National Vision of America s Transition to a Hydrogen Economy to 2030 and Beyond was developed acknowledging that Hydrogen is America s Clean Energy choice and that hydrogen is flexible, affordable, safe, domestically produced, used in all sectors of the economy and in all regions of the country. A key point to be noted is that the policies and programmes are essentially required to be strongly supported by appropriate legislative measures. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), the State Legislation of California (AB8) passed last year, The Open Fuel Standard Act of 2011 of USA directing the automakers to have half of the Cars by 2017 Model Year capable of operating on fuels other than gasoline, the European Union introduced the Renewable Energy Directive and its companion the Fuel Quality Directive in 2009 to from the use of non-fossil fuels in transport, and the most recent one Electric Mobility Law (EMOG) approved by the German Cabinet on September 4, 2014, are all aimed at ensuring that the early markets for the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology successfully cross the chasm that is so often coupled with early technology adoption. Recent Studies conducted by the NREL show a factor of 1.8 to 2.4 greater fuel economies on hydrogen fuel cell buses than that of the diesel and compressed natural gas. The US, Germany, Japan and South Korea all have elaborative plans for the early marketing of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and development of hydrogen refueling infrastructure. International partnerships have been created viz. International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (IPH), and the International Energy Agency Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Implementing Agreements (IEA). These organizations along with bilateral and multilateral hydrogen and fuel cell technology R & D cooperation and collaboration will serve as a cultural tool in advancing hydrogen and fuel cells. In December 2, 2012, European Electromobility Observatory (EEO) was launched to act as a European point of reference for electromobility, including Fuel Cell Vehicles. In response to the global economic crises of 2008, the Public Private Partnership European Green Cars Initiative (PPP) was created. Realizing they the auto industry is a key sector for employment with 12 million direct jobs and over 500 billion / year in turnover, the European Union decided to continue the PPP under the programme Horizon On the private side European Green Vehicles Initiative Association (EGVIA) is striving to improve the transport energy system by 50% ( ) covering 80% efficiency of urban vehicles and 40% efficiency of long distance freight transport. This can only be achieved through deployment of alternative power trains viz. electric and fuel cell technology. A 1,000 km Trans-European Network corridor from Gothenburg (Sweden) to Rotterdam (Netherlands) has been created to implement a synchronized implementation plan for hydrogen refueling stations. The UK s first hydrogen vehicles refueling station opened at Honda s manufacturing facility in Swinton and the first 700 bar hydrogen refueling station opened in Holslebro, Denmark. In Germany Opel announced that its Hydrogen 4 vehicle fleet has passed the 2.4 million mile mark as part of the global fleet test. Europe has been running highly systematic programmes like Electromobility Solutions for Cities and regions (ELMOS) with the object to establish holistic mobility concepts including provision of infrastructure and incentives. Advanced Electric Vehicle Architecture ( ), ELVA, was designed to focus on electric cars for city passengers and urban delivery. There are valuable other programmes floated like HCV, SAFEEV and 76

86 WIDE MOB ( ) after completion of CUTE (Hydrogen for Clean Urban Transport in Europe ( ). In the European Union the project Hydrogen Moves Scandinavia was completed with approximately 20 FCEVs manufactured by Daimler, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota. Japan is extremely dependent on fossil fuels and with the shutdown of the Fukishima Nuclear Plant in 2011, its dependency on Fossil Fuels for power generation has further increased. Japan is seriously considering Hydrogen as a main energy source in future to power its transport system and to generate electricity. In Japan 13 companies announced plans to install 100 hydrogen fueling stations by 2015 as part of the previously announced commitment to introduce FCEVs to consumers by In Singapore the Inter-agency Electric Vehicle (EV) Taskforce has been created which is led by the Energy Market Authority (EMA) and Land Transport Authority (LTA)to establish infrastructure for hydrogen charging. In Australia Nissans real world EV trials for 5 years for zero emission vehicles began on October 14, Honda demonstrated FCV at the Los Angeles International Auto Show (Nov, 2013) with more than 100 kw of power, reach upto 500 km and tanking in 3 minutes. It will bring the FC car in the market in 2015 first in USA, Japan and later in Europe in partnership with GM. At the same time (November 2013) Toyota exhibited its FCV concept at the Tokyo Motor Show with a 100 kw power train, minimum reach of 500 km, tanking of 3 minutes and high pressure hydrogen tank of 700 bar. In the US currently Toyota has 100 demonstration vehicles on the road, Honda 200, GM 115, Daimler 100, and Hyundai and others in the race. World s largest single FCEV demo was accomplished with 183 FCEVs, 25 Fueling Stations and more than 3.6 million miles driven as part of the DOE, US, technology validation programme. In the US Ford Motor Co has put 1.3 million test miles on a fleet of 300 FCV over the last several years. Hyundai Motor Co unveiled a third generation FCEV with a 100 kw fuel cell, 700 bar storage, C start capacity, and a 400 mile range. 48 of these vehicles were added to the hydrogen test fleet. Mercedes began leasing its B-Class fuel cell vehicle to customers in the Orange Country and Los Angeles, CA. In conclusion our assessment is that hydrogen could be put into wide scale use as an automotive fuel to address problems of air pollution and most important security of energy supply. In the beginning HFCV fleet cars should be introduced for short range delivery systems like post office, emergency vehicles, law enforcing vehicles, health care vehicles, school buses and vans. A hydrogen rental car strategy could be introduced for transitioning from fleets to consumers particularly at the air ports. The hydrogen fueled rental car business combines profitably the logistical advantages of a fleet operation with outreach to many individual consumers. 77

87 CARMAKERS PREPARE TO SHIFT TO HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS Hyundai started leasing a hydrogen fuel cell version of its Tucson SUV, above, this year. To the right is a fuel cell stack on display at the 2013 L.A. Auto Show. (Christina House / For The Times) TOYOTA HFCV LA, USA: AUTOSHOW 78

88 LONGER RANGE AND FAST REFUELING ARE TWO ADVANTAGES OVER ELECTRICS FUEL ECONOMIES (TTW) OF VARIOUS SCOOTERS 79

89 HONDA FUEL CELL VEHICLE FCX VOLKSWAGEN IS READY FOR A HYDROGEN-POWERED FUTURE WITH PASSAT AND GOLF SPORTWAGEN HYMOTION 80

90 (a) INFRASTRUCTURES OF FUEL CELL SCOOTERS, AND (b) EXCHANGEABLE METAL HYDRIDE CANISTERS FOR FUEL CELL SCOOTERS ONCE SEEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL VILLAINS, CARS ARE BECOMING SQUEAKY CLEAN Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 81

91 COMMERCIALIZATION OF FUEL CELL VEHICLES AND HYDROGEN STATIONS TO COMMENCE IN

92 IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ON URBAN VEHICLE OWNERSHIP 83

93 COMPARISON OF KEY PROPERTIES OF HYDROGEN AND OTHER FUELS Fuel Type Energy per unit mass (MJ/kg) Energy per unit volume (MJ/m³) MotivityFactor Specific carbon emission (kg C/kg fuel) Liquid hydrogen Gaseous hydrogen Fuel oil Gasoline Jet fuel LPG LNG Methanol 22.30l Ethanol Bio diesel Natural gas Charcoal PROGRESS TOWARDS MEETING TECHNICAL TARGETS FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION VIA DISTRIBUTED WATER ELECTROLYSIS 84

94 85

95 SAFETY RANKING OF FUELS Fuel Characteristic Gasoline Methane Hydrogen Toxicity of fuel Toxicity of combustion Density Diffusion Coefficient Specific heat Ignition limit Ignition energy Ignition temperature Flame temperature Explosion energy Flame emissivity Total score Safety factor 16/30 16/20 16/ Safest = 1; less safe = 2; least safe = 3. HYDROGEN VISION The Hydrogen Cycle: when generated from renewable source, hydrogen production and use is part of a clean, cyclic proces. 86

96 Average Solar Hydrogen Production Efficiencies of Photovoltaic Systems with a Range of V Directly Connected to a PEM Electrolyzer. mpp Source: IAHE Volume 33, Issue 21 (November 2008) 87

97 INSOLATION (kwh/m²/day) Pakistan Academy of Engineering VARIATION OF SOLAR INTENSITY AND OF H 2 PRODUCTION WITH TIME OF DAY SOLAR INSOLATION ON HORIZONTAL SURFACE AT KARACHI (Lat. 24.5, Ion ) MONTH 10 YEAR Av. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MONTH 88

98 TECHNICAL TARGETS: DISTRIBUTED FORECOURT WATER ELECTROLYSIS HYDROGEN PRODUCTION a, b, c TECHNICAL TARGETS FOR HYDROGEN STORAGE Specific Energy: 1.5 kwh/kg Energy Density: 0.9 kwh/l 89

99 90

100 FUEL CELLS TYPICAL EFFICIENCY OF A CONVENTIONAL 1.6 I GASOLINE CAR (LEFT) AND A FUEL CELL CAR (RIGHT) OVER A NEDC TEST CYCLE 91

101 THE THERMAL EFFICIENCY OF ICE AND FUEL CELL VEHICLES BY LOAD FACTOR Key point: The main FCV efficiency benefits occur at partial load COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF HFCEV Energy Density (on LHV basis) Gasoline 11.9 kwh/kg 10 kwh/l Hydrogen 33.3 kwh/kg 3 kwh/m 2. Typical Efficiency of a 1.6 l Gasoline Car and Fuel Cell Car in accordance with the Test Cycle conducted by New Driving Cycle (NEDC) Gasoline Car Fuel Cell Car Engine and accessories losses 79% Fuel Stack losses 42% Engine Output 21% Fuel Cell Output 58% Driveline losses 2% Accessories & Driveline losses 18% Wheel Output 19% Wheel Output 40% 3. Fuel Economy Gasoline Hydrogen Fuel Economy 24 miles / gall 57 miles / kg* 92

102 Engine Output 21% Fuel Cell Output 58% Driveline losses 2% Accessories & COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF HFCEV Driveline losses 18% Wheel Output 19% Wheel Output 40% 3. Fuel Economy (CONTD.) Gasoline Hydrogen Fuel Economy 24 miles / gall 57 miles / kg* Fuel Price US $ 2.16 / gall US $ 2.85 / kg Cost per Vehicle US 9 C / mile 5 C / mile * 1 kg of H 2 is equivalent to 1 gall of gasoline (gge) in terms of energy content. 4. Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions Power Unit Emissions (g of CO 2 -e / mile) Gasoline Engine (Conventional ICE) 340 Diesel Engine (Conventional ICE) 220 Battery Operated 230 g Electric Vehicles (BEV) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) Fuel Cell Vehicles with Ultra-low 0 Carbon Renewables for H 2 Production MODELED COST OF AN 80-kW net PEM FUEL CELL SYSTEM BASED ON PROJECTION TO HIGH-VOLUME MANUFACTURING (500,000 UNITS/YEAR) 93

103 Overview Comparison of Gasoline Fueled Vehicles and Hydrogen Vehicles 2013 FINAL AUTOMOTIVE FC COST ESTIMATE 94

104 TECHNICAL TARGETS FOR FUEL CELL TRANSPORTATION COST DOE Fuel Cell System Cost Target: $40/kWe in 2020 DOE Fuel Cell System Ultimate Cost Target: $30/kWe Shanghai Analysis 3km to Stations Beijing Analysis 3km to Stations Shanghai 300 hydrogen stations would provide fueling coverage for the entire municipality of Shanghai (mainland), supporting over 450,000 FCEV (note: population is ~ 20 million). Beijing 150 hydrogen stations would provide coverage for the municipality of Beijing, supporting over 225,000 fuel cell vehicles (note: population ~ 14 million). 95