ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY STORAGE

Transcription

1 ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION AND ENERGY STORAGE VISION Electric transportation and energy storage have been recognized for over a century as important opportunities in enhancing the value of electricity to society. The electrification of transportation may result in reduced emissions, increased energy efficiency, greater reliability, and ultimately lower costs of electricity to consumers and businesses. Energy storage can be an effective method of adding stability, control, and reliability to the grid. Historically, these opportunities have been limited by the lack of cost-effective storage options that could compete with fossil fuels in the same applications. The emergence of lower-cost, high-durability storage technologies, as well as changing economics for traditional transportation and grid technologies, has once again brought these opportunities to the fore. Furthermore, rapidly advancing technologies in power electronics, control systems, microelectronics, sensors, and computing have enabled rapid advances in systems integration. However, while the underlying technologies have come within reach, options for electric transportation and energy storage have yet to prove competitive with fully mature, traditional technologies. There is a need for continued research into the real-world performance of these technologies as well as the path by which cost can be decreased through manufacturing scale experience and for expanding the range of applications as the technology improves. The EPRI programs in Electric Transportation and Energy Storage are designed to facilitate the development of these technologies in ways that harvest them as distributed resources and maximize the opportunities for the electric power enterprise and for society. Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 107

2 ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION: PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY COMPONENTS OF THE FUTURE STATE Electricity will become a dominant transportation energy source when plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) (1) are costeffective relative to gasoline or diesel vehicles, (2) are offered in a variety of vehicle choices, and (3) charge seamlessly from the electric grid. Electric drive technologies will be widely adopted, and vehicles using electricity as their primary fuel will present substantial percentage of the vehicle fleet. By 2030, as many as 70 million plug-in vehicles may be on the road in the U.S. alone. Costs of energy storage for electric transportation will continue to fall through sustained innovation in battery technology, systems integration, and durability arenas. Newer architectures and infrastructure options for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will proliferate and compete in the marketplace for dominance. Widespread availability of Smart Grid-aware PEVs will enable shaping their charging behavior in a consumer- and grid-friendly manner. GAPS Data and understanding of electric drive technologies and systems, and their application. Up-to-date cost and performance assessment of rapidly advancing battery, PEV, and charging infrastructure technologies. Detailed non-proprietary models for assessing PEV performance and energy efficiency. ACTION PLAN Collaborate with automotive manufacturers and drivers to assess present vehicle performance and usage. Create reasonable projections for future performance and benefits of transportation electrification. Determine probable rates of market adoption as well as grid impacts. Develop credible and publicly sharable cost models for component technologies such as batteries, electric drives, and infrastructure technologies. A graphical representation of the action plan for this roadmap (also referred to as swimlanes) is attached. VALUE AND RISK When the action plans are realized, the following values will result: Electric drive technologies will create opportunities for reduced emissions, increased efficiency, greater reliability, and lower lifetime costs to consumers and businesses. Improved understanding of costs and benefits of electrified transportation within automotive, storage, and utility industry to enable consumer- and grid-friendly PEV technologies. Availability of independent and authoritative data and analysis tools and results will help both automotive, storage, and utility industries to develop their internal business cases and rate cases with societal benefits. If the action plans are not realized, the following risks may occur: Inefficient or sometimes counter-acting decision-making within automotive and utility industries creating market-inefficient technology solutions. Timely, accurate, and verified information, technologies, and best practices on electric drive technologies may not be available, creating uncertainty and inefficiency and possibly creating missed opportunities. Utilities may undertake costly deployment of infrastructure and other technologies by promoting nonstandard approaches or by overbuilding, potentially resulting in stranded assets. The lack of information and tools may bias stakeholders to decide toward the status quo, meaning that substantial opportunities could be missed for improving efficiency, reducing emissions, and enhancing energy independence in the transportation sector. Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Roadmaps 108 PDU.ETS.01AR0

3 ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION: FLEET AND NON-ROAD ELECTRIFICATION COMPONENTS OF THE FUTURE STATE The electrification of commercial on-road fleets and nonroad equipment is driven by the evolving performance of electric vehicles and the economics of electricity as a low-cost and low-maintenance transportation fuel. Widely deployed electro-technologies will improve their costs, durability and reliability to a point where widespread industrial application is possible. Spread and growth of the need for goods movement / transportation, fleets and industrial/non-road equipment will lead to stringent emissions constraints at public facilities such as airports, sea-ports and public transportation. Mature supply base will emerge that is capable of retrofits or ground-up products suited for fleet and non-road transportation electrification GAPS Data and understanding of electric drive technologies and systems, and their application to fleet and non-road environments. Many electric drive systems and performance today is uneven. Methods and tools for fully assessing and addressing the business case scenarios identifying costs and benefits from a utility and fleet manager perspective enabling rational, data-driven decision making. Operational understanding of electrified non-road transportation in real-world applications. Technical requirements for suppliers to create viable products and services that have potential for commercialization and widespread application. ACTION PLAN Engage fleet operators for on and non-road goods movement and industrial equipment for identifying electrification opportunities. Develop cost / benefit assessment tools and business models for fleet managers to utilize to create their own assessment scenarios for fleet electrification. Develop understanding of the end users / consumers of the fleet vehicles to identify further opportunities for electric drive penetration. Define requirements and perform in-field assessment of targeted technologies critical to fleet electrification. A graphical representation of the action plan for this roadmap (also referred to as swimlanes) is attached. VALUE AND RISK When the action plans are realized, the following values will result: Electric drive technologies will create opportunities for reduced emissions, increased efficiency, greater reliability, and lower lifetime costs to fleet owners deploying fleet electrification. Sound technical requirements for the utility industry to develop electric power infrastructure serving electrified non-road equipment and fleets. Better understanding of field requirements and associated business cases for fleet electrification. Broader understanding of capable supply base and technology readiness. If the action plans are not realized, the following risks may occur: Missed opportunities for fleet electrification due to a lack of understanding or awareness of the electrification technology and its performance. Missed opportunities for electricity industry to create load diversity and growth by catering to new non-road and fleet segments. Inefficient markets and decision making stemming from a lack of available independent and thorough models and decision-support tools. A lack of cost reduction acceleration from slowness of application of electric drive and storage technologies to non-road and fleet segments. Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 109 PDU.ETS.01BR0

4 ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION: PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY COMPONENTS OF THE FUTURE STATE The ideal PEV infrastructure to support the adoption of electric vehicles is built to scale and is complementary to the electric grid. Plug-in Electric Vehicles will present substantial percentage of the vehicle fleet and load on the grid. By 2030, as many as 70 million plug-in vehicles may be on the road in the U.S. alone. The electric power infrastructure will have adequate generation, transmission, and distribution capacity to meet all electric transportation requirements, without having to do a disruptively substantial capacity upgrade. Charging of plug-in vehicles will be accomplished in a safe and reliable fashion, primarily through residential and workplace charging, with public charging deployed in regional networks for safety purposes and urban networks for convenience charging. Both proprietary and open-source technologies for managing charging demand at residential, public, aggregated and utility back-office levels will proliferate and require careful guidance. GAPS Uneven maturity in the PEV to grid integration technology both at communications and power level. Lack of well-understood requirements, use cases and best practices for applying new and emerging technologies to integrate PEVs with smart grid. Costly technologies for charging systems, networking, communications and systems aggregation from multiple sources adding costs to consumers and ratepayers. ACTION PLAN Actively coordinate dissemination of information around technology and standards to all stakeholders including automotive and electrical equipment manufacturers, networking and communications vendors and utility industry to encourage them to strive to develop consumer- and market-friendly solutions which effectively advance everyone s interests. Collaborate with automotive manufacturers, utilities and equipment vendors to develop concepts and requirements for reliable and cost-effective solutions to managing PEV charging. Develop requirements, test plans and assess technologies fundamental to accelerating smart grid capable PEVs. A graphical representation of the action plan for this roadmap (also referred to as swimlanes) is attached. VALUE AND RISK When the action plans are realized, the following values will result: Coordinated technology rollout across automotive, equipment manufacturing and utility industries will accelerate PEV adoption and widespread application of smart charging technologies and charging load management. Informing utility industry through independent and objective testing of power and communications equipment and components will allow the most promising among them to be deployed sooner, advancing the pace of technology upgrades and concomitant benefits. Availability of reference designs and architectures will enable quicker introduction of smart grid-capable PEVs that participate in consumer-focused utility incentive programs to add technology to the grid at the lowest possible cost increment. If the action plans are not realized, the following risks may occur: Increased proliferation of non-standard communications and power technologies for grid to vehicle power flow management increasing costs to own for consumers and costs to serve to utilities as well as increased costs to ratepayers. Utilities may undertake costly deployment of infrastructure and other technologies by promoting nonstandard approaches or by over-building, potentially resulting in stranded assets A lack of objective and unbiased information and tools may cause stakeholders to decide towards the status quo, meaning that substantial opportunities could be missed for improving efficiency, reducing emissions, and enhancing energy independence in the transportation sector. Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Roadmaps 110 PDU.ETS.01CR0

5 ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION: PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES AS DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES COMPONENTS OF THE FUTURE STATE PEVs can fulfill a role as distributed energy resources if they are fully integrated to the Smart Grid and their onboard energy storage is dispatched in a way that is complementary to both the electric grid and the vehicle owner. Electric drive technologies will be widely adopted, and vehicles using electricity as their primary fuel will present substantial percentage of the vehicle fleet. By 2030, as many as 70 million plug-in vehicles may be on the road in the U.S. alone. The electric power infrastructure will have adequate generation, transmission, and distribution capacity to meet all electric transportation requirements, without a substantial upgrade in capacity. Smart grid-enabled plug-in vehicles will be widely used as grid resources, providing ancillary services and load control through managed charging; backup power to residences; and possibly even serving as energy storage resources. GAPS Effective and accurate representative models of the grid that allow PEV integration studies and grid impact assessment for bidirectional power flow-capable PEVs Well developed and understood aggregation and control mechanisms that enable power flow management among the installed base of PEVs across the power delivery value chain. Mature technologies and standards that enable automotive manufacturers, equipment vendors, utilities and infrastructure providers to create compatible products and technologies to harvest the installed base of PEVs. Standard definition of grid services that can be offered by the aggregated PEVs as well as their valuation models. Templates and reference design / architectures for providing grid services through aggregated PEVs that are cost-effective, robust and reliable. ACTION PLAN Develop representative static and dynamic models of the grid system including distribution, feeder level, substation and Transmission line levels, using open standards based tools and developing tools where none exist, for a range of scenarios. Develop aggregation and control algorithms for harnessing the distributed resources at unit or C&I levels as well as associated reference control system architectures that enable the distributed control systems to function. Develop reference designs and architectures for power and control systems comprising of on or off board medium to high bidirectional power conversion equipment that is grid-tied and smart grid-capable. Develop industry-standard definitions of services and incentive structures pertinent to PEVs as distributed resources, as well as associated valuation models. A graphical representation of the action plan for this roadmap (also referred to as swimlanes) is attached. VALUE AND RISK When the action plans are realized, the following values will result: Plug-in vehicles will be available to utilities and system operators as aggregated grid assets, creating opportunities to lower the cost of operation and increase asset utilization without substantially increasing capital investment. Independent and objective assessment of both value potential and technology capability of PEVs as distributed and aggregated resources will enable utility industry to tailor programs to harness them according to their unique resource-base. Reference designs, architectures, control systems definition and models will provide a sound technology toolset to create in-field demonstrations of some or all of the grid services that the PEVs are capable of providing. Joint technology exploration with Automotive and electrical equipment manufacturers will enable dissemination and development of best practices that are widely shared. If the action plans are not realized, the following risks may occur: Utilities, automotive manufacturers and equipment manufacturers may embark on developing closed/pro- Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 111 PDU.ETS.01DR0

6 prietary technologies for grid services in a manner that is high-cost and low-benefit, or worse, does not perform. In the absence of sound technical and business case information through valuation models, utilities and automotive manufacturers with potential for mutual gain may remain risk-averse and decide in favor of status-quo. A lack of aggregation and control techniques developed on a sound technical basis may result in lost opportunities to integrate renewable energy sources (solar and wind). Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Roadmaps 112 PDU.ETS.01DR0

7 Future State Component Legend Vehicle Performance and Modeling Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Technology Battery Performance and Cost Vehicle and Infrastructure Cost Modeling Plug-in Vehicle technology Assessment and Evaluation Fleet Vehicle Electrification Fleet and Non-Road Electrification Non-road Applications for Electrification Consumer Awareness, Understanding and Education Infrastructure Technology and Standards Coordination PEV Infrastructure Technologies Smart Charging Component and Systems Evaluation Distributed Power System Development and Evaluation Asset Planning Tools Development Grid System Modeling for Distributed Resources Plug-In Electric Vehicles as Distributed Resources Aggregation and Control Systems Technologies Grid Services - Value Assessment Distributed PEV to Grid Integration EPRI Work Other Stakeholders Key Milestone Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 113 PDU.ETS.01R0

8 DISTRIBUTION-LEVEL ENERGY STORAGE COMPONENTS OF THE FUTURE STATE Energy storage can be used in conjunction with other tools to reduce costs, increase reliability, and improve performance of the distribution network. To accomplish this, utilities must have access to cost-effective grid storage products that have a track record of safety and reliability, as well as well-understood performance. Utilities also need analysis tools that enable the use of storage to effectively maintain the performance and reliability of the grid. By distribution level storage, we mean any storage system operating for localized or distribution-level operation, rather than the operation of the bulk grid. Distribution-level storage can include storage connected at the substation, on a feeder, or at the edge of the grid, possibly extending to some of the applications of storage that is installed on the customer side of the meter. GAPS The use of storage today is limited primarily by the high capital cost of storage technologies, which makes the use of alternative solutions more cost-effective than storage in most cases. Even in those cases where the use of storage is economically feasible, the relative scarcity of ready-to-connect storage products makes it a less attractive option for most utilities. To address these limitations, the following technical gaps should be addressed: Storage technologies are generally too expensive, do not have long life, and are highly inefficient. For instance, today s lead-acid batteries cost over $300/kWh capacity and last less than 5 years in a cycling application. A system built from these batteries cannot be expected to release more than 65 to 70% of the energy used to charge them. This means that batteries are not costeffective in the vast majority of utility applications. Development of grid storage products is in its infancy. Even where batteries can be used cost-effectively on the grid, there are very few cost-effective products with a good track record on the market. Utilities do not have common procedures for siting, permitting, and other grid deployment activities for storage, resulting in delays, higher expense, and sometimes costly mistakes. Present analytic tools do not accurately reflect the way storage is used or the way in which its direct benefits can be calculated, resulting in severe undervaluation of the technology in analyses, despite the fact that users who already own systems such as pumped hydro value them highly. ACTION PLAN Define targets for the performance of storage technologies and work with other research organizations to explore new storage technologies that have the potential to meet those targets. Facilitate development of workable storage products through definition of common functional requirements, duty cycles, specifications, and test plans. Develop best practices for grid deployment of storage. Create validated analytic tools and methodologies, with transparent data sets and models that calculate the value of storage in specific distribution contexts with reasonable accuracy. A graphical representation of the action plan for this roadmap (also referred to as swimlanes) is attached. VALUE AND RISK When the action plans are realized, the following values will result: Utilities will have practical options for distributed energy storage that will improve the reliability and flexibility of the distribution network. Utilities will have practical options to energy storage through the existence of a number of technologies that directly address the storage requirements in utility contexts. Utilities will have access to safe, reliable, grid-ready storage products with a reasonable track record that can meet utility needs. Utilities will have common practices toward grid deployment that will reduce the cost and risk of storage deployment. Utilities and public utility commissions will have validated, transparent methodologies to help determine where storage is likely to be most valuable and how it should be sized and deployed. The owners of storage systems will be able to justify them economically through the proper allocation of indirect and residual benefits. Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Roadmaps 114 PDU.ETS.02R0

9 If the research activities are not carried out, the following risks are evident: Timely, accurate, and verified information on storage technologies and best practices may not be available, increasing uncertainty and inefficiency in selection and use of storage products. Utilities may undertake costly deployment of storage infrastructure through promotion of non-standard approaches or through overbuilding, potentially resulting in stranded assets. Only a small number of grid-ready storage technologies and products may be available, limiting the options that utilities have when implementing energy storage and possibly resulting in higher costs and reduced societal benefits. Tools and information required to adapt to rapid changes in the industry may not be available to those who need it, leaving them unprepared to adapt. The lack of information and tools will bias most stakeholders to decide toward the status quo, meaning that substantial opportunities may be missed to cost-effectively improve stability, control, and reliability on the grid. Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 115 PDU.ETS.02R0

10 Future State Component Legend Technology Characterization and Understanding Storage Technologies Electric Vehicle Batteries in Stationary Storage Applications Future Storage Technololgies Power Electronics Storage System Integration Storage Systems Grid Interfaces Communication and Control Siting and Permitting Storage System Testing and Assessment Interfacing with the Local Distribution Grid Integrating Storage to the Distribution Network Effects of Storage on the Distribution Grid Storage on the Customer Side of the Meter Smart Grid Interoperability Bulk Grid Operating Benefits of Distribution Storage Analytics Storage Used to Enhance Grid Flexibility for Renewables Distribution and Local Operating Benefits Customer Side of the Meter Benefits EPRI Work Other Stakeholders Key Milestone Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Roadmaps 116 PDU.ETS.02R0

11 BULK ENERGY STORAGE COMPONENTS OF THE FUTURE STATE Energy storage is an important potential flexibility resource for the bulk grid. With the potential to act as either load or generation, bulk storage can add substantial control to both sides of the energy-balancing equation. In principle, storage can also be used to shift energy generated at times of low demand to times of high demand, improving the utilization of renewable generation as well as other less controllable generation such as nuclear and combined cycle gas plants. To accomplish this well, utilities must also have the analysis tools and, where applicable, an understanding of market structures that enable the use of storage to effectively maintain the reliability of the grid. By bulk storage, we mean any storage system operating to affect bulk-level operations for the grid, rather than local or distributed operations. Bulk storage can include large-scale systems such as compressed-air energy storage (CAES) and pumped hydro, as well as smaller systems used to provide flexibility to the grid (either through direct control or through market mechanisms). GAPS The capital cost of storage at present is very high. This together with the relative inefficiency of the charge-discharge process limits the ability to cost-effectively use storage to shift energy in time. Bulk storage makes more sense as a flexibility resource on the grid, providing services such as frequency control, spinning reserve, and black start. However, storage is still expensive enough to limit these uses in most cases. To address these limitations, the following technical gaps should be addressed: Storage technologies must be made much more inexpensive, ideally created from low-cost, ubiquitous materials, through simple construction technologies. Storage technologies must be long-lived. While technologies such as pumped hydro and CAES have the potential to be used for decades, many other technologies proposed for bulk storage use do not have such lifetimes. Storage technologies must be more efficient. Today s technologies have round trip efficiencies of less than 75%; many proposed technologies have efficiencies of less than 50%. Present analytic tools do not accurately reflect the way storage is used or the way in which its direct benefits can be calculated, resulting in severe undervaluation of the technology in analyses, despite the fact that users who already own systems such as pumped hydro value them highly. Present market mechanisms do not account for indirect and residual benefits of storage, such as reduced cycling loads on generators. ACTION PLAN Define targets for the performance of storage technologies and work with other research organizations to explore new storage technologies that have the potential to meet those targets. Facilitate development of workable storage products through definition of common functional requirements, duty cycles, specifications, and test plans. Create validated analytic tools and methodologies, with transparent data sets and models that calculate the value of storage in specific bulk grid contexts with reasonable accuracy. Inform utilities and regulators on the magnitudes of indirect and residual benefits of storage that may play a role in the determination of whether storage makes sense in certain places and contexts. A graphical representation of the action plan for this roadmap (also referred to as swimlanes) is attached. VALUE AND RISK When the action plans are realized, the following values will result: Utilities will have practical options for bulk energy storage that can be used to provide additional flexibility and control for the bulk grid. Utilities or other stakeholders will be able to use storage to shift energy from one time to another, allowing more efficient and effective operation of the grid. Stakeholders will have access to analytical tools and models that will allow them to accurately model the value for storage, along with the sensitivity to various parameters and an understanding of how the storage can best be operated. Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 117 PDU.ETS.03R0

12 If the research activities are not carried out, the following risks are evident: Timely, accurate, and verified information on storage technologies and best practices may not be available, increasing uncertainty and inefficiency in selection and use of storage products. Utilities may undertake costly deployment of storage infrastructure through promotion of non-standard approaches or through overbuilding, potentially resulting in stranded assets. Only a small number of grid-ready storage technologies and products may be available, limiting the options that utilities have when implementing energy storage and possibly resulting in higher costs and reduced societal benefits. Tools and information required to adapt to rapid changes in the industry may not be available to those who need it, leaving them unprepared to adapt. The lack of information and tools will bias most stakeholders to decide toward the status quo, meaning that substantial opportunities may be missed to cost-effectively improve stability, control, and reliability on the grid. Power Delivery & Utilization Sector Roadmaps 118 PDU.ETS.03R0

13 Future State Component Storage Technologies Technology Characterization and Understanding Future Storage Technololgies Storage System Integration Grid Interfaces Storage Systems Communication and Control Siting and Permitting Storage System Testing and Assessment Integrating Storage at the Bulk Level Interfacing with the Bulk Grid Dispatching Storage Analytics Bulk Grid Operating Benefits Storage Used to Enhance Grid Flexibility for Renewables Legend EPRI Work Other Stakeholders Key Milestone Electric Transportation and Energy Storage 119 PDU.ETS.03R0