Safety & Economics Trade Study

Transcription

1 Safety & Economics Trade Study Principal Investigator: Prof. Ken Sivier Graduate Research Assistant: Jennifer Bradley 1 2-1

2 SMART ICING SYSTEMS Research Organization Core Technologies Aerodynamics and Propulsion Flight Mechanics Control and Sensor Integration Human Factors Aircraft Icing Technology IMS Functions Characterize Icing Effects Operate and Monitor IPS Envelope Protection Adaptive Control Icing-Encounter Flight Simulator Safety and Economics Trade Study 2 2-2

3 Safety & Economics Trade Study Goal: Establish, through the use of safety and trade studies, the impact of new IPSs, especially the SIS, on the safety and costs of operation of TBP commuter aircraft

4 Safety & Economics Trade Study Objective: 1) Develop methodologies for evaluating the impact of IPSs on the safety and costs of operation of TBP commuter aircraft 2) Establish a baseline for existing IPSs 3) Evaluate the impact of new IPSs on safety and costs 4) Evaluate the impact potential of the SIS on safety and costs 4 2-4

5 Safety & Economics Trade Study Approach: 1) Examine ATS safety history and study the application of the SIS within that framework 2) Perform economics trade studies focused on existing and new IPSs, including the SIS 5 2-5

6 Safety & Economics Waterfall Chart Federal Fiscal Years Effects on Domestic Air Transportation Baseline TBP Study Regional Jet Study Ice Protection Trade Study Safety History Accident Analysis 6 2-6

7 Smart Icing System Research Safety Study Statistical Analysis of Icing Events Safety History SIS Safety Impact SIS Application to Accident History SAFETY AND ECONOMICS TRADE STUDY 7 2-7

8 Safety Study Aircraft Icing Events Accidents Incidents Mishaps Engine Type Primary Factors Flight Phase 8 2-8

9 Safety Study (cont.) Roselawn, IN Accident Analysis Accident History SIS Application Conclusions Recommendations 9 2-9

10 Types of Events Accidents Person suffers serious injury or death Aircraft receives substantial damage Incidents Not an accident An occurrence that could affect the safety of operations Mishaps An icing encounter that did not warrant an accident or incident report

11 Databases NTSB Accident/Incident Database Aircraft Accidents and Incidents to present FAA Incident Data System Aircraft Incidents to present NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System Aircraft Mishaps Voluntary Aircraft Reports to present

12 Aircraft Icing Events Number of Icing Events Mishap Incident Accident Year

13 Icing Accident Fatalities Number of Fatalities Year

14 Engine Type Reciprocating (carburetor) Reciprocating (fuel injection) Turboprop Turbojet Turbofan Turboshaft (helicopters)

15 Aircraft Icing Accidents Engine Type Recip (fuel inj), 22.5% Turboprop, 3.2% Turbojet, 0.4% Turbofan, 0.4% Turboshaft, 0.4% Recip (carb), 73.1%

16 Primary Factors Flightcrew Aircraft Maintenance Weather Airport/ATC Miscellaneous/Other Unknown

17 Maintenance, 3.3% Airport/ ATC, 0.6% Other, 1.0% Aircraft Icing Accidents Primary Factors Unknown, 10.0% Flightcrew, 46.7% Weather, 36.7% Airframemanufacturer, 0.4% Aircraft Systems, 1.4%

18 Flight Phases Cruise Descent Takeoff/Climb Approach Preflight/Taxi Landing Maneuver (not shown)

19 Aircraft Icing Accidents Flight Phases Maneuvering, 10.5% Landing, 1.8% Unknown, 1.0% Preflight/Taxi, 0.2% Takeoff/Climb, 20.5% Approach, 17.8% Descent, 9.0% Cruise, 39.2%

20 American Eagle, Flt October 31, 1994 Flight from Indianapolis, IN to Chicago, IL Avions de Transport Régional, model (ATR-72) Roselawn, Indiana Total aboard:

21 ATR-72 Ice Protection Level I all probe & windshield heating systems Level II activates pneumatic engine intake boots; electric prop heaters; elevator, rudder, & aileron horn heat; electric side window heaters Level III activates wing, horizontal & vertical stabilizer leading edge boots; routinely prop to 86%

22 ATR-72 Ice Protection Pneumatic Anti/Deicing Wing Leading Edges Horizontal Tail Plane Leading Edges Engine Air Intakes Gas Path Deicer Ice Evidence Probe Electronic Ice Detector Windshields Probes Propellers Horns Electrical Antiicing

23 ATR Time History - 1 Time (CST) Event 1455:20 -- Cleared for takeoff Normal climb to 16,000 ft (Began descent from 16,000 ft to 10,000 ft) -- (FDR Level III activation) (FDR Prop RPM = 86%) 1524:39 -- Entered hold at 10,000 ft -- (FDR deice off) Flt attendant & Capt conversing both flight & non-flight related subjects 1533:13 -- Capt "high deck angle" -- (FDR AOA = 5 deg) 1533:26 -- Flaps moved to 15 deg -- (FDR AOA to 0 deg) 1541:07 -- Caution alert -- (FDR Level III activation) -- (FDR Prop increase)

24 ATR Time History - 2 Time (CST) Event 1542:38 -- (Third circuit of hold) 1548:34 -- "showing ice" 1549:44 -- Capt leaves cockpit 1554:13 -- Capt returns 1555:42 -- FO "we still got ice" 1556:51 -- (FDR descent to 8000 ft; autopilot on) 1557:22 -- Flap overspeed warning 1557:28 -- Flaps going to 0 deg (AOA & pitch ) 1557:33 -- (Descent thru 9130 ft) -- (AOA thru 5 deg; Ailerons RWD) 1557:34 -- (Ailerons deg RWD) -- (Autopilot disconnect) -- Autopilot disconnect warning -- Rolls right (AOA & pitch ) 1557:57 -- (Descent thru 1700 ft) -- End of Recording

25 ATR DFDR Data American Eagle Flight 4184* *Freezing Drizzle: Towards A Better Knowledge and a Better Protection, Issue 1, ATR, France, 11/05/

26 Hinge Moments vs. Angle of Attack AIAA Effects of Simulated-Spanwise Ice Shapes on Airfoils: Experimental Investigation by S. Lee & M.B. Bragg

27 SIS Modified - 1 Time (CST) Event SIS Action 1455:20 -- Cleared for takeoff Normal climb to 16,000 ft (Began descent from 16,000 ft to 10,000 ft) -- (FDR Level III activation) detection of ice (FDR Prop RPM = 86%) anti-ice/deice on 1524:39 -- Entered hold at 10,000 ft -- (FDR deice off) Flt attendant & Capt conversing both flight & nonflight related subjects notice to pilot notice to pilot AOA flap hinge moment flt envelope change notice to pilot of flt envelope change

28 SIS Application - 2 Time (CST) Event SIS Action 1533:13 -- Capt "high deck angle" -- (FDR AOA = 5 deg) 1533:26 -- Flaps moved to 15 deg -- (FDR AOA to 0 deg) 1541:07 -- Caution alert anti-ice/deice still on -- (FDR Level III activation) -- (FDR Prop increase) 1542:38 -- (Third circuit of hold) 1548:34 -- "showing ice" anti-ice/deice still on 1549:44 -- Capt leaves cockpit 1554:42 -- Capt returns 1555:42 -- FO- "we still got ice" anti-ice/deice still on 1556:51 -- (FDR descent to 8000 ft) -- (FDR autopilot on) 1557:22 -- Flap overspeed warning

29 SIS Application - 3 Time (CST) Event SIS Action 1557:28 -- Flaps going to 0 deg notice to pilot AOA -- (AOA & pitch ) flt envelope changes autopilot disconnect warning 1557:33 -- (Descent thru 9130 ft) -- (AOA 5 deg) notice to pilot AOA -- (Ailerons RWD) 1557:34 -- (Ailerons deg RWD) -- Autopilot disconnect notice to pilot AOA -- Autopilot disconnect warning -- Rolls right (AOA & pitch ) 1557:57 -- (Descent thru 1700 ft) -- End of Recording

30 Safety Study Summary and Conclusions An average of at least 131 icing encounters a year ( ). Primary factors are flightcrew and weather, making up a total of 83% of the accidents. Performed accident analyses: October 31, Roselawn, IN January 9, Monroe, MI December 26, Pasco, WA

31 Safety Study Future Research Obtain a better description of SIS. Analyze accidents using improved SIS model. Further categorization of accidents by aircraft type. Analyze accidents to find the specific action or lack of action that initiated the event

32 Smart Icing System Research Economics Trade Study ACSYNT Analysis Tool TBP Aircraft & Mission Models IPS Data Baseline Studies & TOC Sensitivity IPS Economics Trade Study SIS Cost Impact SIS Projection SAFETY AND ECONOMICS TRADE STUDY

33 Economics Trade Study Analysis Tool Baseline Aircraft Mission Profiles Sensitivity Studies Weight Sensitivity Altitude Sensitivity Ice Protection Trade Study Conclusions Recommendations

34 ACSYNT AirCraft SYNThesis NASA Ames Research Center Phoenix Integration, Inc. Design Capabilities Performance Analysis Economic Analysis

35 Baseline Aircraft 35-passenger 70-passenger Aircraft Model Fairchild F-27 (F-27) Scaled Fairchild F-27 (F27-70) Gross Takeoff Weight 34,750 lb 57,840 lb Wing Span 95 ft 104 ft Aircraft Length 76 ft 112 ft Engine Rolls-Royce Pratt & Whitney - Model Dart 7 Mark 528 PW150A - SFC

36 Mission Profiles 13,000 ft 13,000 ft for 10 min Mission A Takeoff CMI Total Range = nmi Landing MDW 13,000 ft Mission B 13,000 ft 9,000 ft Takeoff CMI Total Range = 277 nmi Landing DET Mission C Takeoff CMI Total Range = 277 nmi Landing DET

37 Economic Analysis Input Annual Aircraft Utilization = 2925 block hr Aircraft Economic Life = 20 yr Stage Length = 319 sm Load Factor = 75% Fuel Cost = $2.01 per gal Crew Cost $42,000 yr

38 F-27 Weight Sensitivity Mission B Cruise Altitude = 13,000 ft Cruise Mach = 0.39 Total Fuel TOC TOC ($/ASM) TOC Sensitivity = 0.1 /ASM/100 lb Total Fuel (lb) Fuel Sensitivity = 1.6 lb/100 lb ,500 32,250 33,000 33,750 34,500 35,250 36,000 Gross Takeoff Weight (lb)

39 F27-70 Weight Sensitivity Mission B Cruise Altitude = 13,000 ft Cruise Mach = 0.54 Total Fuel TOC TOC ($/ASM) TOC Sensitivity = 0.04 /ASM/100 lb Total Fuel (lb) Fuel Sensitivity = 0.5 lb/100 lb ,500 56,250 57,000 57,750 58,500 59,250 60,000 Gross Takeoff Weight (lb)

40 F-27 Altitude Sensitivity Mission B Average WG = 34,750 lb Cruise Mach = 0.39 TOC Sensitivity = 0.8 /ASM/1000 ft TOC ($/ASM) TOC Total Fuel Fuel Sensitivity = 12.1 lb/1000 ft Total Fuel (lb) ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Cruise Altitude (ft)

41 F-27 Altitude Sensitivity TOC ($/ASM) Mission B Average WG = 34,750 lb Cruise Mach = 0.39 TOC Sensitivity = 0.8 /ASM/1000 ft TOC Block Hour Time Sensitivity = 0.01 block hr/1000 ft Block Time (Block hr) ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40, Cruise Altitude (ft)

42 F27-70 Altitude Sensitivity 0.78 Mission B Average WG = 57,840 lb Cruise Mach = 0.54 TOC Total Fuel TOC Sensitivity = 0.2 /ASM/1000 ft 1300 TOC ($/ASM) Fuel Sensitivity = 19.6 lb/1000 ft Total Fuel (lb) ,000 20,000 30,000 40, Cruise Altitude (ft)

43 F27-70 Altitude Sensitivity Mission B Average WG = 57,840 lb Cruise Mach = TOC Sensitivity = 0.2 /ASM/1000 ft TOC ($/ASM) TOC Block Hour Time Sensitivity = block hr/1000 ft Block Time (Block hr) ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Cruise Altitude (ft)

44 Ice Protection EconomicsTrade Study Includes Does Not Include Acquisition estimates Cost due to: Costs due to Weight Delays Costs due to Drag Airport Diversions Technology Factors Cancellations Complexity Factors Accidents Litigation IPS Energy Usage

45 Ice Protection Systems & Components Magnetostrictive Ice Detector Heat of Transformation (HOT) Ice Detector Standard Pneumatic Deicer Silver Estane Pneumatic Deicer Small Tube Pneumatic (STP) Deicer Pneumatic Impulse Ice Protection (PIIP ) Electrothermal Electro-mechanical Smart Icing System (SIS)

46 SIS Cost Analysis Ice Protection System Standard Pneumatic Deicer Avionics Increased Technology & Complexity Factors Deicing System Avionics

47 Economic Analysis Input Technology Factor Component Weight (lb) Anit/Deicing Equipment Complexity Factor Avionics Complexity Factor Drag Penalty ( CDmin) Control Group Magnetostrictive Ice Detector (2) HOT Ice Detector (2) " " - Standard Pneumatic " Deicer * Silver Estane " " Pneumatic Deicer * STP Deicer * " " PIIP * " " - Electro-Mechanical " 331 " " - Deicer * Electrothermal * " 59 " " - SIS * * Protection for wing, horizontal and vertical stabilizers

48 F-27 Ice Protection Trade Study No Ice Protection Magnetostrictive Sensor Mission B Baseline case = $24.8 million/yr HOT Sensor 1.49 Standard Pneumatic 2.31 Silver Estane STP Preliminary Estimates PIIP 3.19 Electro-mechanical 3.28 Electrothermal 3.16 SIS TOC ($100,000/Yr)

49 Breakdown of Change in TOC Std Pneum. Total 2.31 Technology Factor Component Weight IP Complexity Avionics Complexity Avionics Development Std Pneum. Breakdown 2.11 Preliminary Estimates SIS Total 4.86 SIS Breakdown TOC ($100,000/yr)

50 F27-70 Ice Protection Trade Study No Ice Protection Magnetostrictive Sensor Mission B Baseline case = $27.7 million/yr HOT Sensor 1.70 Standard Pneumatic Silver Estane STP Preliminary Estimates PIIP 3.60 Electro-mechanical 3.71 Electrothermal 3.60 SIS TOC ($100,000/Yr)

51 Economics Trade Study Summary and Conclusions Selected the software tool, ACSYNT, for making IPS economics trade studies Developed two TBP commuter aircraft models for the studies Established TBP commuter mission models Evaluated the fuel required and TOC sensitivities to cruise altitude and TOGW Found TOC impact of several existing and new IPSs including the projected SIS

52 Economics Trade Study Future Research Calibrate the ACSYNT economics study results using: Actual aircraft operational costs. Better acquisition and operational costs for ice protection systems and components. Obtain data and include additional icing related items in total operating costs Number of delays & cancellations a year Costs of delays or cancellations Costs of accidents & incidents (aircraft, liability, & negative publicity effects) Perform ice protection trade study for a regional jet aircraft